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January
9th
2004
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
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50 Days to Choose Your Pitchers: '04 D4
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

American League Starting Pitchers with DV of $0 and $-1

Quick Key to the tables:
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  P = Pitches.  B = Bats.
2003 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2003.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 70/30 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2003 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2003 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.


58.WSERAWHIPKBBHIP
Nate Cornejo604.671.514658236194.2
DET TigersDVAVRotohelpLABR/Tout
P:R    B:R4x4:00 0
2003 Age: 245x5:102R

As Cornejo owns a career 91:104 K:BB in 287.1 IP while allowing opponents to hit .312 against him, he probably doesn't belong in the majors in any significant role. The fact that no more than four other current Tigers' starters obviously are superior pitchers speaks to the weakness of Detroit's pitching corps more than Cornejo's worthiness of a big league starting spot. His minor league stats at least indicate some long-term upside, but given his perpetual hittability issues below the majors, a solid ground-fly ratio and relatively low walk rate can't compensate for his other problems. Don't consider him for your team until you see his skills dramatically improve, preferably after a move to middle relief.


50 Days to Choose Your Pitchers: '04 continues tomorrow with more American League starters.


Today's Fantasy Rx: I don't see any potential breakouts from these ranks, and almost all the obvious roto upside is dependent upon players winning unlikely amounts of playing time, such as Casey Fossum and Justin Duchscherer. Mike Maroth is a decent Dollar Days gambles thanks to the Tigers' improved defense, and Lidle, Harang, and Claussen could pitch acceptably well for the Reds. However, only Matt Riley looks like an obvious target given his tools, increasingly impressive skills, and essentially guaranteed rotation spot.


Click here to read the previous article.

Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
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