Today's Fantasy Rx

American League Starting Pitchers with PDV below $5

Quick Key to the tables:
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  P = Pitches.  B = Bats.
2003 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2003.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 70/30 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2003 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2003 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

39.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
John Lackey		10	0	4.63	1.42	151	66	223	204
ANA Angels		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	4		6		6		10
2003 Age: 24	5x5:	6		10		7		10

Lackey finished the year with better numbers than I expected after an unimpressive start, and his strikeouts make him particularly useful in 5x5 leagues. Although his qualitative numbers didn't help, they also didn't hurt most teams, and I like the fact his platoon splits leveled out this season. Unfortunately, he never translated monthly skill development into qualitative improvement as jumps in his walk, hit, and homer rates obscured his jump from a 5.7 to 6.7 K/9. Since he easily could open the year in the minors if he fails to beat out Aaron Sele for the fifth spot in the rotation, Lackey looks like a great potentially minor league draft target, but unless you need innings later in your regular draft, he isn't someone you want to target.

50 Days to Choose Your Pitchers: '04 continues tomorrow with more American League starters.

Today's Fantasy Rx: About half of today's pitchers only saw a couple months or less in the majors in 2003. However, Eric DuBose, Cliff Lee, Doug Waechter, Jason Stanford, Kevin Gregg, and Rich Harden all possess the skills necessary to push double-digit value if they hold rotation spots all season. While Gregg likely won't get that chance thanks to Anaheim's off-season moves and Stanford may head back to the minors initially, the other four youngsters all should open the year in rotations. If you can acquire any of them under $5, you should see a nice profit by the end of the year.