Today's Fantasy Rx

On the Second Day of Outfielders, my true love gave to me:
Single-digit AL PDV,
and American Leaguers with Double-digit PDV.

American League Outfielders with Single-Digit Positive Draft Value

Quick Key to the tables:
AB = At-bats.  H = Hits.  BA = Batting Average.  HR= Home Runs.
RBI = Runs Batted In.  SB = Stolen Bases.  R = Runs.  B = Bats.  T = Throws.
Pos = Position qualification based on 20 appearances or max. # of games in 2003.
2003 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2003.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 70/30 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2003 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2003 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

39.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Craig Monroe		425	102	.240	23	70	4	51	O
DET Tigers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	8		6		-2
2003 Age: 26	5x5:	8		6		-3		R

Detroit's signing of Rondell White relegates Monroe to the bench until White or Bobby Higginson hits the DL. Of course, Monroe's .287 OBP means he shouldn't start regularly under almost any circumstances, and his weak overall skills suggest he'll struggle to stay above $5 if kept in a similar role. Fortunately, his .293/.337/.631 performance against left-handers demonstrates his upside if placed in a straight platoon. However, considering the dozens of inane decisions made by Tigers' management in recent years, they probably believe White is a better option than pairing Monroe with a AAAA lefty masher. Monroe isn't worth more than a Dollar Days' flyer unless he somehow wins a starting job, and you shouldn't approach double-digit bids under any circumstances.

40.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Eric Owens		241	65	.270	1	20	11	29	O
ANA Angels		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	8		6		13		7
2003 Age: 32	5x5:	7		5		11		6

Diminishing plate discipline and speed skills still left Owens with decent roto value for a likely late-round pick. Of course, the Jeff DaVanon's emergence chased Owens out of Anaheim, so now he'll return to his old role as a fifth outfielder and pinch-runner. Since he improved down the stretch and held a .308 average against right-handers, Owens remains a solid gamble for a few bucks on any team that needs an extra dozen steals.

41.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Gary Matthews, Jr.		468	116	.248	6	42	12	71	O
BAL/SD		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	8		6		20		13
2003 Age: 29	5x5:	9		7		19		14

Compiling a .271/.346/.379 performance salvaged a decent season for Matthews, who otherwise suffered across-the-board skill erosion. Expect him to accumulate another few bucks next year in a limited role, but nothing here suggests he merits another starting job any time soon unless either his BA or power unexpectedly improves.

42.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Bobby Kielty		427	104	.244	13	57	8	71	O/D
MIN/TOR		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	8		6		8		8
2003 Age: 27	5x5:	9		6		8		11

Swiped from the Twins for the largely comparable Shannon Stewart, Kielty instead slumped to a .233/.342/.376 performance with the Jays. Toronto then kicked him to Oakland last month for Ted Lilly, providing Kielty with the worst hitting environment of his career in 2004. While he owns good plate discipline and power potential, Kielty could struggle if he doesn't fix a severe platoon split that limited him to a .656 OPS against right-handed pitchers. At least the right-handed Eric Byrnes won't keep Kielty out of the lineup when southpaws pitch, so I see relatively little reason he won't rebound towards his .291/.405/.484 line from 2002. Bid to the low double digits to secure Kielty's rights.

43.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Ruben Sierra		307	83	.270	9	43	2	33	O/D
TEX/NYY		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	7		5		8		2
2003 Age: 37	5x5:	7		5		8		5

With the diminishing power suggested by a career-worst 1.51 G-F, Sierra may not remain useful too much longer. He no longer looks like a logical DH option for the Yankees given their recent acquisitions, and a .634 OPS after the break demonstrates Sierra's downside. Don't treat him as more than an endgame pick with some quantitative potential.

44.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Terrence Long		486	119	.245	14	61	4	64	O
OAK Athletics		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	6		4		18		8
2003 Age: 27	5x5:	7		5		18		8

Oakland successfully dumped Long's contract with Ramon Hernandez for Mark Kotsay, finally removing one of Billy Beane's few mistakes from the roster. While Long still owns decent plate discipline and some power potential, his sub-.300 OBP over the last two years is unacceptable under almost any circumstance. Joining San Diego as a backup outfielder offers some upside, especially if the Padres limit his at-bats against left-handers, but gambling more than an endgame selection on someone unlikely to contribute more than a few bucks of quantitative value looks like a bad idea.

45.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Mike Ryan		61	24	.393	5	13	2	13	O
MIN Twins		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	6		4		-1
2003 Age: 26	5x5:	5		4		-1

Although Ryan only managed a .225/.289/.404 performance over 408 AB for AAA Edmonton(PCL), he demolished big league pitching in the brief opportunity awarded him by Minnesota. With passable plate discipline and excellent power potential, Ryan merits a starting job next year but instead should settle into a reserve role until the Twins finally let a veteran outfielder depart. Ryan ranks as a solid mid-round option in any league capable of earning double-digit value if given the chance to exceed even 200 at-bats.

46.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Dustan Mohr		348	87	.250	10	36	5	50	O
MIN Twins		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	5		4		4		1
2003 Age: 27	5x5:	6		5		5		4

Dumping Mohr to San Francisco opened an outfield job on Minnesota and thrust Mohr into sharing the Giants' right field job with Michael Tucker, both of whom could thrive in a straight platoon. While contact problems led to an extended second-half slump, Mohr owns decent plate discipline and intriguing power potential, giving him an excellent chance to remain at double-digit homers even in fewer at-bats despite playing home games in PacBell. He looks like a solid endgame pick in any NL league.

47.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Bobby Higginson		469	110	.235	14	52	8	61	O
DET Tigers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	5		4		22		20
2003 Age: 33	5x5:	7		5		21		18

Possessing two more years on one of the half-dozen most untradable contracts in the game, Higginson picked a good year to post the worst numbers of his career. Yes, hamstring problems limited his effectiveness, but his injury doesn't explain his diminished power potential or plate discipline. Higginson at least requires a platoon partner, and with no skill save his walk rate suggesting much upside, even bidding into double digits here looks like a mistake.

48.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Darin Erstad		258	65	.252	4	17	9	35	O
ANA Angels		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	5		4		19		25
2003 Age: 29	5x5:	5		4		19		20

Stealing nine bases in ten attempts despite missing nearly two-thirds of the year with hamstring problems certainly ranks an impressive accomplishment for Erstad. If he somehow remains healthy while fixing his unexpected reversed platoon split as I expect, he still owns the skills to approach $20 thanks to his strong speed skills and potentially good BA. Yes, he owns little power, but especially in 5x5 leagues, he seems a relatively safe gamble into the low teens, although that may not be a sufficient ante with many owners still foolishly hoping for a 2000 redux.

49.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Shane Spencer		395	99	.251	12	49	2	39	O
CLE/TEX		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	5		4		6		2
2003 Age: 31	5x5:	5		4		6		3

Bombing in Texas following his mid-season move resulted in negligible interest in Spencer this winter. While he still could land a platoon job somewhere, an unimpressive contact rate leaves me little hope of him exceeded even this mediocre performance. Treat him as no more than an endgame pickup in any league regardless of where he lands in 2004.

50.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Karim Garcia		244	64	.262	11	35	0	25	O
CLE/NYY		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	5		4		7		23
2003 Age: 27	5x5:	4		3		8		18

The unsurprising non-tendering may push him into a backup role wherever he lands after he continued to struggle against southpaws and only managed a mediocre .291/.335/.476 against right-handed pitching. Yes, Garcia owns decent power skills and easily could surpass the 20/80 level in sufficient playing time, but he doesn't even appear to establish on a role on one team, switching squads in mid-season during three of the last four seasons. With an inconsistent BA and unimpressive plate discipline, Garcia merits no more than an endgame flyer in any draft.

51.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Laynce Nix		184	47	.255	8	30	3	25	O
TEX Rangers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	4		3
2003 Age: 22	5x5:	4		3

With no AAA experience and only a .284/.344/.487 performance with a 34:68 BB:K in 335 AB for AA Frisco(TL) this year, Nix certainly needs more seasoning. Yes, he owns good power potential, but a .289 OBP renders him useless to the Rangers. While strong overall minor league numbers still suggest he should develop into a quality big leaguer, Nix doesn't deserve bids of more than a few dollars since he possesses the most value as inexpensive mid-season trade bait.

52.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Kevin Mench		125	40	.320	2	11	1	15	O
TEX Rangers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	4		3		9		12
2003 Age: 25	5x5:	4		3		10		13

He entered the season poised to emerge as the Rangers' dominant right-handed power threat outside of the infield, and he ended the year in the Texas doghouse thanks to not playing winter ball. We can forgive the last transgression since he likely wanted the extra time to recover from a broken wrist, the injury that effectively ruined his season. The combination of a strained oblique and the crowded roster resulted in Mench's demotion in early May after he posted a .219/.265/.281 performance in 32 April at-bats. Fortunately, he regained his stroke at AAA Oklahoma(PCL), compiling a .267/.366/.457 line in 105 at-bats, along with a very promising 19:15 BB:K. Following his June recall, Mench posted a .338/.392/.521 in 71 at-bats that month and a stunning .409/.500/.545 in 22 July at-bats before a Juan Rincon pitch broke his wrist, effectively ending his season. Any recommendation for Mench at this point qualifies as a complete guess since he could range anywhere from spending all year in the minors if he struggles in the spring to an All-Star berth if he even can echo his torrid June numbers over the first half. Expect something closer to the latter as the Rangers need Mench to develop after dealing Ryan Ludwick and losing Juan Gonzalez and Carl Everett.

53.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Doug Glanville		246	65	.264	5	16	4	24	O
TEX/CHC		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	4		3		18		9
2003 Age: 33	5x5:	4		3		17		6

Four straight seasons of a declining OPS, diminished speed skills due to a suddenly balky hamstring, and limited power potential despite good contact and ground-fly rates combine to limit Glanville's value rather severely. Even his second-half rebound didn't result in an OBP over .330, so not only must you ignore him in sim leagues but he appears far too risky to trust in straight roto. Gambling on Glanville anywhere offers little reward since we no longer can count on any BA or SB contribution from the aging defensive replacement.

54.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Aaron Rowand		157	45	.287	6	24	0	22	O
CH White Sox		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	4		3		1		5
2003 Age: 26	5x5:	4		3		2		8

An unsurprising slow start and a .242/.316/.392 performance for AAA Charlotte(IL) somehow still resulted in another opportunity for Rowand, who compiled a stunning .370/.388/.609 in 46 second-half at-bats. Of course, this limited sample size provides no evidence that he can maintain that performance over a full year, although career-best marks of a 3.64 #P/PA and 1.43 G-F at least offer some upside. I still don't expect him to receive another extended look with the White Sox, but given the occasional flashes of offensive potential by Rowand, spending a few bucks in a late round may result in an unexpected double-digit value if emerges as a starter.

55.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Lew Ford		73	24	.329	3	15	2	16	O
MIN Twins		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	4		3				R
2003 Age: 27	5x5:	3		3

Minnesota's reserve outfield corps of Mike Ryan, Mike Cuddyer, and Ford arguably looks stronger that the Twins' veteran starters, but I see no indication that the club will allow the youngsters to start any time soon. Of course, considering Ford's respectable .303/.357/.450 performance in 211 AB for AAA Rochester(IL), and his 3.80 #P/PA and 1.26 G-F in the majors, he certainly deserves a chance to play every day. Only a broken right arm kept him from earning more playing time in 2003, so treat him as a Dollar Days' target for now or a possible double-digit sleeper if he moves to an organization that will deploy him on a daily basis.

56.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Chris Singleton		306	75	.245	1	36	7	38	O
OAK Athletics		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	4		3		15		9
2003 Age: 31	5x5:	4		3		15		9

The Athletics cut loose Singleton after the season following the worst season of his career. While he posted career-best skill ratios nearly across-the-board, Singleton expectedly posted another awful OBP of only .301, which at least opened an opportunity for Eric Byrnes. Unless he quickly develops his offensive skills, Singleton shouldn't spend any more time as a starter and even might struggle to find a reserve role due to his limited upside.

57.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Juan Rivera		173	46	.266	7	26	0	22	O
NY Yankees		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	3		2		-1		1
2003 Age: 25	5x5:	3		2		-1		1

Moving to Montreal with Nick Johnson and Randy Choate nearly provided Rivera with a starting job until the Expos signed Carl Everett, likely resulting in Endy Chavez, Terrmel Sledge, and Rivera competing for only one lineup spot. With a .325/.374/.461 performance in 308 AB for AAA Columbus(IL) this year, Rivera deserves the chance to contribute on an everyday basis, but he only appears likely to platoon with Sledge at best. Unimpressive plate discipline similarly suggests his BA will remain low, although since Rivera at least could contribute double-digit homers in a couple hundred at-bats, consider spending a couple bucks here if you need a fifth outfielder with upside, especially given the hitting benefits provided by the Expos' two stadiums.

58.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Billy McMillon		153	41	.268	6	26	0	15	O
OAK Athletics		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	3		2
2003 Age: 31	5x5:	2		2

Another strong AAA performance, including a .333/.401/.556 line in 153 AB for AAA Sacramento(PCL), resulted in McMillon's promotion at the end of May. He nicely rewarded the Athletics by posting a .287/.380/.478 against right-handers, capitalizing on his strong plate discipline and intriguing power potential. Although I don't envision him every receiving the everyday job his performance probably merits, McMillon ranks as excellent roster filler and even a decent late-round pick in standard leagues.

59.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Ryan Ludwick		162	40	.247	7	26	2	17	O
TEX/CLE		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:L	4x4:	3		2
2003 Age: 25	5x5:	2		2				R

October surgery to repair torn cartilage in his knee again leaves him in rehab heading into spring training. The Indians dealt for Ludwick since their system lacked a pure right-handed power hitter, and any 25-year-old who can post a .41 G-F in 162 at-bats certainly possesses considerable power upside. If he ever stays healthy and wins a job in the crowded Cleveland outfield, Ludwick should open with a 20/80 season before potentially rapidly increasing those numbers in the new future. However, unless he appears both healthy and a likely starter by your draft, Ludwick doesn't merit much more than a gamble of a few dollars.

60.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Willie Harris		137	28	.204	0	5	12	19	O
CH White Sox		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	2		2		5		6
2003 Age: 25	5x5:	2		2		4		7

His career-best 3.81 #P/PA demonstrates generally developing plate discipline, suggests that Harris finally might carry his strong AAA numbers into success in the majors. Harris looks like a better bet than Aaron Rowand in center field due to his strong speed skills, or the youngster could return to second base, gaining welcome position flexibility while potentially emerging as an intriguing middle infield option. Yes, I know his struggles as a backup make Harris a BA risk, but I see little reason not to push double digits here if you need someone guaranteed to steal no less than a dozen bases and possibly triple that total.

61.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Alex Escobar		99	27	.273	5	14	1	16	O
CLE Indians		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	2		2		-2		R
2003 Age: 25	5x5:	2		2		-2		R

Escobar's .251/.296/.472 performance in 439 AB for AAA Buffalo(IL) includes 24 HR, 78 RBI, and a 24:133 BB:K, so given his power potential, we expect Cleveland to overlook his poor plate discipline and keep him next spring rather than risk exposing the youngster to waivers due to his lack of options. He even looks like a respectable platoon partner for one of the left-handed batters in the lineup, although given his unimpressive upper-level numbers in the minors, I don't recommend targeting Escobar in any league. Yes, he could hit 30 homers with a little luck, but a poor OBP and extensive injury history limit his utility for the Indians, who soon will graduate better offensive options from the minors like Grady Sizemore.

62.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
David McCarty		53	18	.340	1	8	0	6	O
OAK/BOS		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	2		2
2003 Age: 33	5x5:	1		1

McCarty posted another strong minor league season, compiling a .270/.351/.474 performance in 352 AB for AAA Sacramento(PCL) before switching organizations when Oakland waived him after only three weeks with the Athletics in June. Boston smartly grabbed McCarty and watched him excel in an admittedly limited role down the stretch. Now he appears set to return as the 25th man on the Red Sox, but while his overall skill set suggests McCarty won't hurt you, I see little upside here unless he finds a regular job and therefore no reason to recommend him as more than roster filler in any league.

63.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jason Tyner		90	25	.278	0	6	2	12	O
TB Devil Rays		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	1		1		-1		2
2003 Age: 26	5x5:	1		1		-2

Texas claimed Tyner off waivers earlier this month, non-tendered him last week, and then just re-signed him to a minor league deal. While I still think he could emerge as a roto stud, apparently diminishing speed skills make Tyner a poor risk in most leagues, so only roster him if desperate for any additional steals.

64.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Mike Cuddyer		102	25	.245	4	8	1	14	O
MIN Twins		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	1		1		14		16
2003 Age: 24	5x5:	0		1		13		20

With Shannon Stewart and Torii Hunter contracted to Minnesota through 2006 and Matt LeCroy's performance as the DH and cleanup hitter, the Twins only have a single open outfield spot for Cuddyer, Mike Restovich, Mike Ryan, or Lew Ford. Of course, unless they deal Jacque Jones for a pitcher before spring training, Ryan and Ford probably will earn spots as backups while Cuddyer and Restovich waste another season in the minors. Cuddyer's .306/.381/.446 and a 25:49 BB:K in 186 at-bats at AAA Rochester again suggests he belongs in the majors, yet his meager total of 8 home runs on the year likely didn't endear him to Minnesota. The best news here is that he won't turn 25 until March, so he should develop into an excellent player given his tools, plate patience, and power potential, but unless he earns a starting spot by your draft, don't bid more than a few bucks given the competition he faces for more playing time.

65.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Chris Magruder		26	9	.346	1	3	0	3	O
CLE Indians		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	1		1		-2
2003 Age: 26	5x5:	0		0		-2

Joining the Brewers on a minor league deal could result in an unexpected opportunity for Magruder, who owns decent plate discipline and mildly intriguing upside. However, until he actually begins producing in a regular big league role, Magruder probably doesn't merit any fantasy attention.

66.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Adam Piatt		132	30	.227	6	18	1	11	O
OAK/TB		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	1		1		3		R
2003 Age: 27	5x5:	0		0		3		3

Oakland finally cut their losses with Piatt after another unimpressive first half. The future journeyman fared even worse with Tampa and the Rays claimed him off waivers, and until Piatt fixed his rapidly falling contact rate, you simply can't risk adding him anywhere. While he still owns decent power potential, I don't trust him to contribute positive value in any fantasy league.

The Twelve Days of Outfielders 2003 continue tomorrow.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Several outfielders who earned between $5 and $12 likely cost no more than a buck or two in most leagues. Although the publicity for Eric Bynes and Coco Crisp could provide draft day bidding wars, players like Chone Figgins, Aaron Guiel, and Mike Ryan should cost very little despite the high likelihood of each player echoing his 2003 performance.