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December 24th 2003 |
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Your Daily Fantasy Rx |
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by Tim Polko
On the First Day of Outfielders, my true love gave to me:
Quick Key to the tables: Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP based on data compiled from TQ Stats. Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.
While a few other AL position players contributed a better balance of numbers over each category, Beltran's dominance in stolen bases and batting average pushed him to $45, first among all AL position players and $4 ahead of Ichiro, the next best outfielder. Considering Beltran missed the first couple weeks of the season due to injury, this performance is simply outstanding. His 91% SB success rate ranks him among the best basestealers in years, and while most of his skills stagnated, jumps from his 2002 marks of a .11 walk rate and .78 contact rate to respective career-bests of .14 and .84 led to career-high marks in BA, OBP, and SLG. My only significant concern is that his extra-base totals plummeted as he hit 30 fewer doubles this year, however even the likely changes to Kauffman Stadium shouldn't affect Beltran as his home/road splits suggest his stats shouldn't change dramatically. Beltran looks like a good buy anywhere from the mid-$30s to the low-$40s, and if the Royals improve their OBP at the top of the order by platoon Desi Relaford and slotting David DeJesus second, he even could reach a career high in RBI. His plate discipline and basestealing prowess make him one of the safest selections in fantasy baseball.
Despite a dropping BA and another extremely poor second half, Ichiro remained among the top fantasy performers thanks to stealing nearly three-dozen more bases. If he ever maintained his first-half stats over an entire year, he easily could top $50 to win another MVP. Yet, under his falling quantitative numbers lies intriguing promise. His 3.50 #P/PA, 81% SB success rate, and 1.77 G-F all represent career-best marks, and the latter indicates a potential power surge considering he posted ground-fly ratios over 2.45 in both his previous seasons. We also could see a sharp rise in his RBI totals if Seattle finally drops him to the #3 hole since his improvement at the plate with men in scoring position is very impressive. Of course, while Ichiro still merits a top pick in any league, his plate discipline gains in 2002 evaporated this year, leaving me with little hope of a true breakout next season. Also, if you roster him at the beginning of the season, make sure to trade him around the All-Star Break since there's nothing in his statistical history that suggests he won't struggle over the last two months.
While Crawford displayed little power growth, you don't draft him for his homers and ribbies. Crawford's 55 steals paced the AL this year, and although Alex Sanchez could challenge for SB supremacy if he continues starting for the Tigers, Crawford should be good for another 50 steals. Even though Crawford's walk rate plummeted in the second half, he also managed an impressive .89 contact rate while pushing his SB success rate to 87%. If he builds on that improvement, a .300 season and 70 steals aren't out of the question, however a strong echo of these numbers appears far more likely right now.
Wells' development in his second full season made the long-term deal he signed with Toronto last winter look like a giant bargain for the Jays. His skills improved almost across-the-board. The combination of a walk rate increase from .04 to .06, a contact rate bump from .86 to .88, and a drop from 1.13 to .96 G-F resulted in a leap forward from a .275/.305/.457 line to an excellent .317/.359/.550. Given his great second half performance, better numbers on the road, and no significant platoon split, Wells should anchor the Toronto lineup for the next few years and certainly could win at least one MVP if he continues developing. Despite his disappearing speed, consider him a good buy under $35 and a fantastic bargain under $30.
The unwanted Ramirez may not even open the season with Boston, but his strong skill set and overall performance keeps him quite valuable to fantasy teams. He fixed his ground-fly ratio, dropping from a 1.49 back to a .88 mark, and remaining healthy resulted in a solid jump from 84 to 177 Runs. If the Red Sox improved their lineup as expected, Ramirez might approach his Cleveland power numbers of 45/145. Consistent contact rate improvement also could push his average towards .350, making Ramirez a good gamble to $40 in most leagues.
Perhaps the most underrated player in the league, Ordonez surprisingly stumbled, slipping under 30/110 for the first time since his 1998 rookie season. With his speed skills in decline and even his plate patience slipping, I see reason to remain concerned here. However, Ordonez also hits free agency after next season, so expecting a respectable rebound looks like a good plan considering his significant upside and need for a long-term deal, hopefully with the White Sox, who desperately need his consistent output in the lineup.
Although Anderson turns 32 next summer, he still appears in his career peak, and if the Angels extend his contract in the near future, he should enjoy several more productive seasons in Anaheim. Unfortunately, his terrible plate discipline means that even his .315/.345/.541 this year didn't even amount to a .900 OPS. A 1.20 G-F is his worst mark since 1999, suggesting a potential power slump in 2004. Anderson still should reach the .300/25/100 level, but don't expect much behind that mark given that none of his skills appear headed in a particularly positive direction.
Instead of building on his excellent .15 walk rate from 2002, Lee slipped to a .06 mark, his worst since his rookie season. Fortunately, a career-best .85 contact rate boosted his average near .300, and he maintained his power production despite his ground-fly ratio jumped from .67 to .95. After only attempting five steals in 2002, Lee also boosted his roto value by stealing a career-high 18 bases. Since new Chicago manage Ozzie Guillen almost certainly will keep the Sox running often, a 30/30 season is not out-of-the-question, however you instead should expect a mild SB gain accompanied by a mild power outage, perhaps decreasing his RBI total by a dozen. Of course, if Lee remembers how to hit left-handers for an OPS above .632 and avoids starting slowly, a $40 season with numbers next to Magglio Ordonez's normal output appears reasonable, but the cautious course is to hold your bids close to $30.
We projected a more optimistic season for Baldelli than many, and he still earned more than double what we expected. While his power decreased in the second half, his lack of severe splits and overall progress despite skipping from A-ball to the majors in two years suggests significantly impressive long-term upside. He certainly could improve on his 3.47 #P/PA and 1.60 G-F, not to mention his .04 walk rate, .79 contact rate, and 73% SB success rate, but these merely add to his fantasy potential considering he managed a $30 value with a weak skills set. Baldelli certainly remains at risk of a sudden BA plummet, however he owns a stable lineup slot and his speed insures respectable roto value. Bidding to no less than $20 is a requirement on someone who remains at least a year ahead of schedule in his development.
With his new two-year deal and the departure of Mike Cameron vacating center field, Winn appears mostly secure unless the Mariners go looking to add more power to the outfield. He probably will spend 2004 hitting second between Ichiro and Bret Boone, and with most of his skills holding steady, Winn should be able to strongly echo these numbers yet again. If he improves even slightly against right-handed hitters, a $30 season isn't out of the question, so considering he won't cost more than $25 in many leagues, he looks like an excellent target for all owners seeking a respectable five-category player at a probably discount.
A career-best 4.13 #P/PA provides Damon an excellent skill foundation for his role as Boston's leadoff man. While his weak .345 OBP leaves him currently expendable, a .369 second-half mark suggested he still owns the skills necessary to approach his two-year high of a .380 OBP. Damon also could score a couple dozen more runs if he pushes his BA back towards .300, so feel free to bid to $30, especially since the Red Sox seem determined to keep him running thanks to his strong success rate on the bases.
Groin and hamstring problems cost Jones a few dozen at-bats, but with deteriorating skills and limited upside, he simply shouldn't remain with the Twins, a team loaded with young outfield talent. Jones sunk to career-worst marks of a 3.31 #P/PA and 2.58 G-F, he needs a platoon partner, and even surprisingly solid speed skills won't keep his average over .300 unless his contact rate improves. Bidding into the high teens looks like an unnecessary risk considering we don't know where he'll finish next season.
All of Bradley's skills suggest these stats merely precede his approaching breakout campaign. Despite a strained hamstring and a bruised lower back, he sandwiched nearly across-the-board skill improvement between his first injury and the back problems that ended his season in early August. Bradley's ground-fly ratio dropped from 1.70 in 2002 to a 1.22 G-F this season while his he jumped from a 3.70 to 3.96 #P/PA. The added patience boosted his walk rate from .10 to .17, and his stolen base success rate even reached a career-best 71%. Perhaps the only downside here is a slight drop in his contact rate, but second-half improvement there suggests we'll see further development. I see no reason why he can't develop into an offensive superstar to anchor the Indians' young lineup. Unfortunately, multiple off-field incidents could cause Cleveland to sour on him, creating a potential boon for fantasy owners as Jacobs Field actually depresses his stats. Bradley posted a .346/.443/.548 performance on the road, giving us reason to believe he could approach $40 in a friendlier environment. Only attitude or health problems should prevent him from emerging as an elite player, and any owner gambling on him finding 500 at-bats should feel free to push the bidding to $30.
The unsigned Mondesi still could land almost anywhere, and unless he joins a contender, he likely will receive another mid-season reassignment. While his .302/.372/.512 performance in 162 AB for Arizona somewhat rejuvenated his career, persistent contact problems make Mondesi a BA risk in most stadiums. At least a career-best .85 G-F still gives him 30 homer upside, but you still shouldn't expect more than a decent echo of these numbers unless he unexpectedly signs somewhere like Texas.
If Nixon stays in the lineup despite his problems with lefties and avoids minor nagging injuries like the strained calf and scratched cornea that sidelined him this year, his skill improvement suggests he could approach 40 homers while earning over $30. Since his 1997 debut, Nixon's ground-fly ratio has dropped every year of his career, most recently falling from .85 to .66 G-F this season. Not only did his walk rate return to his normal .15 mark after a brief slump in 2002, his .78 is a fairly poor mark, suggesting he could maintain a .300 BA if his contact rate improves. I see a lot to like here and very little to concern me, so feel free to push Nixon past $25 as long as Boston slots him no lower than 7th in the batting order.
Everett posted his best numbers in years and now looks ready to compile truly impressive statistics after signing with Montreal. Nearly across-the-board skill improvement and a fairly dynamic second half combine to suggest that Everett might approach $30 with a little luck next year. He remains an injury risk, but I see no reason why he isn't a great short-term investment for both the Expos and fantasy owners.
Rebounding from a bad injury with the best season of his career will keep Young in the center of Detroit's lineup. Unfortunately, while his 3.69 #P/PA and 1.53 G-F demonstrate an improved skill foundation, watching Young's contact rate drop from .86 to .77 in two seasons leaves me very concerned about his batting average. Even if Young's newfound power potential keeps him near $20, any average decrease should lead to a 2004 value below $20.
If Matos improves against left-handed pitching as we expect, he could approach $30 within the next few years given his five-category skills. His 3.91 #P/PA and 1.03 G-F both suggest continued power and plate discipline growth, yet his .06 walk rate, .79 contact rate, and 68% SB success rate all are weak marks. A .273/.329/.418 second-half performance also indicates a lower immediate upside, although if he continues batting second for Baltimore, at least he'll post solid quantitative marks even if his batting average tumbles. Matos' best attributes right now are his power potential, respectable speed, and relative youth. They at least insure he'll earn a value in the mid-teens if he stays healthy, but I unfortunately see little to suggest Matos will exceed his 2003 fantasy contribution next season.
Awarding Stewart MVP votes simply because the Twins' pitching staff sharply rebounded from first-half problems ranks with the dumbest moves of the year. Yes, his .384 OBP in Minnesota helped the team towards the playoffs, and he also posted his best skill set in a few years. Unfortunately, continued injury problems make him a risk to own, especially since he no longer possesses any semblance of speed skills. If you already own Stewart, deal him while the post-season publicity blitz still elevates his value or risk watching him slip under $20 for the first time since his rookie year.
Struggles against southpaws, an extended second-half slump, and surprisingly limited power potential signify Matsui's American debut. However, he at least maintained good plate discipline, so while his 2.17 G-F severely concerns me, Matsui at least appears primed to continue compiling 100 RBI every year in similar fashion to Bernie Williams' former production, albeit without the speed. Pushing over $20 on Matsui looks like a good idea, especially in 5x5 leagues where his solid Runs total helps.
The Orioles' new third basemen could help stabilize their infield if Mora grows comfortable at yet another new position. However his impressive batting average appears out-of-line with his career numbers, and his speed skills should also decline as he continues recovering from the torn MCL that ended his season. A rising walk rate at least illustrates his increasing patience, but Mora's ground-fly jumped from .75 in 2002 to 1.14 G-F this year and his contact rate also slightly slipped. While a .290/25/80 season is possible, a .275/20/70 season appears a far more likely result even if he remains healthy for a full year.
Despite this unexpected breakout, Anaheim's recent signing of Jose Guillen forces DaVanon back into a reserve role. Of course, DaVanon at least earned a perpetual roster spot even while slumping to a .225/.325/.318 after the break. He owns a solid skill base and could return to this level of injures open a lineup slot, however I instead expect him to simply return several dollars of value in a limited role on any endgame bids. Investing any significant sum here in the hope of a repeat makes little sense considering the Angels' rising hitters prospects also soon will create a logjam of playing time.
Gibbons' role on the 2004 Orioles remains rather uncertain given the club's pursuit of more offensive firepower. Depending on whom the club acquires before spring training, he could remain in right field, shift to first base, or even spend the year at designated hitter. Of course, regardless of his position, Gibbons remains the most potent hitter returning to the club. My only concern is that even though he turns 27 at the beginning of March, none of his skills suggest a significant step forward next season. Nearly all his skill ratios regressed aside from his performance against left-handers, and as he again slumped in the second half, we can't expect surges in his homers or batting average. Another 100 RBI appears likely if he hits in back of a couple of All-Stars, but I see no statistical indication that he will reach the $20 level next year.
Leaving Safeco for Shea Stadium provides Cameron with an extremely similar hitting environment, although departing the AL and Seattle's lineup will decrease his quantitative numbers to some extent. While a 3.99 #P/PA suggests mildly deteriorating patience, boosting his contact rate from .68 to .74 gives Cameron a chance to exceed his .267 career-high batting average. Cameron certainly possesses the skills to sustain his .271/.361/.475 performance from the first half over an entire year, giving him a great chance to exceed $20 even if he fails to break to the 20-steal mark for the second straight season.
Catalanotto's failure to exceed 290 at-bats in consecutive season makes him an obvious source of concern Minor injuries often seem to grow into nagging problems, so even though he owns an impressive skill base, suggesting significant BA upside and power potential, he looks far more likely to drop under $10 than to approach $20. However, if Toronto finds him a steady platoon partner, specifically Reed Johnson I at least expect Cat to exceed a .300 BA for the first time in a couple years if we can drop 68 at-bats of a .176/.250/.294 performance from his stats.
Considering we monitored Gerut's progress since his 1999 debut with A+ Salem(Car), when he posted a .289/.367/.465 with 11 HR, 25 SB, and a 61:65 BB:K in the Rockies' organization, his otherwise unexpected Rookie of the Year candidacy wasn't a total shock. Fragile players with intriguing skill sets who finally stay healthy all year often can produce impressive marks. Of course, Gerut almost certainly soon will wind up in a platoon with someone like Ryan Ludwick given his .209/.274/.313 performance against southpaws. His diminished speed skills also concern me, as does his injury history. However, I see no reason to bid into at least the low double digits to acquire a young outfielder with the potential approach a .300/30/100 season sometime in the next few seasons
A calf injury destroyed his second half, limiting Gonzalez to 8 at-bats after an extremely productive three months. While he still owns the skills to contend for an MVP, especially after a reversal of his 2002 platoon split that suggesting he can dominate all pitchers, health problems seem likely to limit his output in most seasons. Until Gonzalez demonstrates an ability even to exceed 350 at-bats, spending more than his 2004 fantasy value, especially since he might land in less friendly hitters' park next year, is an unnecessary risk for any owners save those with absolutely loaded keeper rosters seeking players with obvious upside.
Although Reed managed surprisingly strong numbers in his big league debut, his .279/.348/.383 performance against right-handers leaves him better suited for a platoon with Catalanotto than possible continued leadoff duties. Limited plate discipline also makes him a risk on a team like Toronto that prizes OBP. Bidding into double digits here isn't a terrible idea if Johnson enters the season as a starter, but expect a lower BA to offset any quantitative gains he sustains by somehow finding additional playing time.
While I still see some additional upside in Salmon's strong skill set, advancing age and a growing injury only leave him likely to echo these stats rather than improve on these marks. He even could slip into a platoon role sometime soon, but given Salmon's history with the Angels, I expect him to remain an everyday player as long as possible despite the possibility of further BA problems. Most owners should stop bidding as Salmon's price heads into the teens.
The reduction in Hunter's steals is the biggest worry here, particularly since he didn't display great speed prior to 2002. Yet a drop from a 1.50 to a career-best 1.27 G-F suggests his power will return, especially as he also managed career-highs of a .09 walk rate and a .82 contact rate. Hunter appears likely to post a strong rebound season, although unless he starts stealing more bases, he won't rank with the top AL outfielders.
A .350/.421/.615 performance in 117 AB for AAA Ottawa(IL) unsurprisingly earned Bigbie a starting job in the second half. He blossomed into an offensive force, compiling a .323/.380/.495 line in 220 at-bats after the break. If he somehow remains healthy, his seemingly owns the skills necessary to exceed $20, however both his 3.63 #P/PA and especially a 2.45 G-F significantly concern me. Bigbie simply lacks significant power potential right now, so although you can hope for a couple dozen steals if he avoids leg injuries, that 20-20 season remains a couple years in the future.
On the strength of strong performances in winter ball and spring training, Byrnes parlayed his offensive improvement into force an Opening Day roster spot and then a starting job that resulted an unexpected All-Star consideration due to his .299/.366/.515 first half numbers. Unfortunately, a vicious July slump limited his playing time over the balance of the season, and now Byrnes looks like no more than a possible platoon partner for Bobby Kielty. Of course, Byrnes still owns very solid skills and could blossom if given another opportunity, so at least consider selecting him with a late-round flyer that could provide you with an unexpected $20 value if Byrnes surges after turning 28 in February
Figgins hinted at intriguing upside as a leadoff man by compiling a .306/.359/.387 performance with 10 steals in 186 at-bats, as well as a very promising 4.12 #P/PA. If he ever finds an everyday job that provides him 550 at-bats, 30 steals and a .300 BA could push him over $30 of value. Of course, Anaheim's solid depth should keep him in a reserve role, but if you need a fifth outfielder that most owners won't expect to reach double-digit steals, Figgins looks like a good grab anywhere in single digits.
Following his recall in June, Crisp played virtually every day for the rest of the year, leading off almost exclusively while splitting his time between left field and center. Over the first couple months of the season, he posted a .360/.434/.511 performance in 225 AB at AAA Buffalo(IL), along with a 26:24 BB:K and a 20/28 SB%. Unfortunately, he simply lost patience at the plate in the majors as his walk rate dropped abruptly, and even his basestealing effectiveness declined. If given 550 at-bats, Crisp easily could post a $20 season, but given the competition he faces for playing time in Cleveland's outfield, he simply isn't a good investment right now at more than a few bucks. Wait until the Indians create room for him by dealing Lawton and/or Bradley before giving Crisp much consideration for your roster.
Brian Sabean will regret dumping a first round pick to sign Michael Tucker, who heads from the best hitters' park in the American League to one of the worst environments for left-handed hitters in the majors. At least San Francisco can provide Tucker with the platoon partner he requires in Dustan Mohr, and if kept in a straight platoon, both players could post very strong numbers. However, Tucker's career-worst 1.38 G-F concerns me, especially in a park that suppresses power as much as SBC. Bidding into double digits for a likely part-time outfielders with diminishing hitting skills and rapidly decreasing speed offers little upside in most leagues.
After opening the year in the minors, Guiel's .321/.446/.643 performance over 112 AB for AAA Omaha(PCL) earned him another promotion in May. He quickly emerged as a starter, and with good plate discipline and power potential, he possesses the skills to remain successful in a variety of roles in the majors. Of course, he may not merit a starting job in 2004 unless Kansas City deals another player to make room for David DeJesus, and the changes to Kauffman Stadium could limit his power, but I see little reason not to push towards double-digits for Guiel if he appears likely to start the season as an everyday player.
Torn cartilage in his knee kept the aging centerfielder under 120 games and 450 at-bats, not to mention under .300, for the first time in a decade. While he probably needs more time at DH, no longer owns great speed, and shouldn't reach 20 homers again, excellent plate discipline should shoot his average back to .300. Williams remains a surprisingly safe play anywhere to $20 since only additional health problems should prevent him from returning to the 100/100 R/RBI level of excellence.
Lawton missed most of the second half after dislocating his right middle finger and then requiring arthroscopic knee surgery in the fall. However, he owned excellent skills prior to his injuries and appeared capable of finishing the season near a .270/25/80/20 line. His 4.01 #P/PA and 1.25 G-F indicate improving plate discipline and power potential, so unless his problems with left-handed pitchers continue to limit his progress, Lawton appears positioned to double his 2003 value with little effort.
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