Today's Fantasy Rx

2003 Major League Rule Five Draft Review

We firmly believe that the Rule 5 draft is a great chance to add depth to your roster by targeting position players from AAA or AA to fill roles like backup catcher, utility infielder, and reserve outfielder. Teams also should target pitchers from high-A and above to work in long relief or as lefty specialists. While we'd likely take one backup position player and then two pitchers, one right-hander and one southpaw, if we were drafting, a couple teams still really impressed us this year.

Round One

Detroit: Chris Shelton, C/1B, PIT; 23, B:R, T:R.
34/122 for .279/.331/.377 with 0 HR, 14 RBI, 17 R, 0/1 SB%,
and an 8:23 BB:K for AA Altoona(EL).
113/315 for .359/.478/.641 with 21 HR, 69 RBI, 71 R, 1/5 SB%,
and a 68:67 BB:K for A+ Lynchburg(Car).
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 99%.
Probable Role if Kept: Pinch-hitter and right-handed first baseman.
Fantasy Potential: Shelton is the best hitter selected in the Rule 5 draft since Baltimore took Jay Gibbons in 2000. While Shelton likely won't contribute as much as Gibbons immediately since he probably could use another couple years of seasoning, he should earn a couple bucks of the bench in 2004 before developing into a prominent Tiger by 2007. The only downside of drafting him is that Detroit may demote him for the first half of 2005 unless he impresses everyone next season, but his promising plate discipline and power potential make him an intriguing gamble, particularly if he qualifies at catcher in your league.

San Diego: Rich Thompson, OF, PIT; 24, B:L, T:r.
Traded to Kansas City for Jason Szuminski and cash.
33/112 for .295/.373/.330 with 0 HR, 7 RBI, 13 R, 11/12 SB%,
and a 9:10 BB:K for AAA Syracuse(IL).
28/109 for .257/.333/.321 with 0 HR, 11 RBI, 17 R, 22/25 SB%,
and a 9:21 BB:K for AAA Nashville(PCL).
57/182 for .313/.373/.352 with 0 HR, 9 RBI, 39 R, 15/18 SB%,
and a 10:24 BB:K for AA New Haven(EL).
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 50%.
Probable Role if Kept: Reserve outfielder and pinch-runner.
Fantasy Potential: I don't expect Thompson to emerge as a starter for Kansas City, but the Royals have no reason not to keep him a reserve outfielder as he offers more immediate upside than someone like Dee Brown. Thompson even could end up platooning with Aaron Guiel in right field with a little luck. Of course, he likely won't see the field more than twice a week, so unless he earns significant playing time, only view Thompson as a cheap source of steals during Dollar Days despite his double-digit upside.

Tampa Bay: Alec Zumwalt, Reliever, ATL; 22, B:R, T:R.
1-1 on a 19:12 K:BB in 19 IP over 11 G
with 13 H, 0 HR, and a 1.42 ERA for AA Greenville(SL).
5-2 on a 43:16 K:BB in 44.2 IP over 30 G
with 29 H, 2 HR, and a 2.22 ERA for A+ Myrtle Beach(Car).
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 75%.
Probable Role if Kept: Mop-up duty.
Fantasy Potential: He only converted to pitching in 2002, yet his solid Carolina League season, along with an impressive AA ERA and quality numbers in the AFL, make Zumwalt one of the more intriguing players chosen. I don't expect him to contribute as more than roster filler in 2004, however he could surprise given his dominance in the minors. Yet selecting Zumwalt while losing Talley Haines and passing on Frank Brooks is another example of Tampa's cluelessness.

New York Mets: Frank Brooks, Reliever, PIT; 25, B:L, T:L.
Traded to Oakland for a player to be named later.
2-0 on a 22:11 K:BB in 28.1 IP over 16 G
with 22 H, 2 HR, and a 2.54 ERA for AAA Nashville(PCL).
3-4 and 9 Saves on a 75:13 K:BB in 61 IP over 35 G
with 43 H, 6 HR, and a 2.51 ERA between AA Reading(EL) and AA Altoona(EL).
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 25%.
Probable Role if Kept: Lefty specialist.
Fantasy Potential: Brooks' journey this off-season makes little sense. Pittsburgh should have kept him as their second lefty, New York should have kept him as their third lefty, and Oakland probably should keep Brooks as their primary lefty. Instead, the Pirates ignored him, the Mets apparently never seriously considered keeping him, and the Athletics spent around $7M on three veteran lefties. Brooks surely isn't a proven commodity, but his dominance this year warrants him a spot in the majors unless his control fails in the spring. Expect Oakland to deal him during spring training to an appropriately lefty-needy team.

Milwaukee: Jeff Bennett, Swingman, PIT; 25, B:R, T:R.
1-3 on a 16:12 K:BB in 23.1 IP over 5 GS(9G)
with 26 H, 4 HR, and a 6.56 ERA for AAA Nashville(PCL).
4-4 and 1 Save on a 62:23 K:BB in 59.2 IP over 2 GS(33G)
with 45 H, 2 HR, and a 2.72 ERA for AA Altoona(EL).
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 50%.
Probable Role if Kept: Long relief.
Fantasy Potential: While he lacks the upside of most pitching selections, Bennett's success in a variety of roles makes him a decent selection for an organization that needs to add pitching depth. Unfortunately, his unimpressive performance at Nashville, combined with uncertain support from the Brewers' offense and defense, makes him a poor roto selection until he demonstrates solid skills in the majors.

Baltimore: Jose Bautista, 3B, PIT; 23, B:R, T:R.
40/165 for .242/.359/.424 with 4 HR, 20 RBI, 28 R, 1/6 SB%,
and a 27:48 BB:K for A+ Lynchburg(Car).
8/23 for .348/.429/.522 with 1 HR, 3 RBI, 5 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 4:7 BB:K for R Pirates(GCL).
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 50%.
Probable Role if Kept: Utilityman.
Fantasy Potential: The Pirates lost more talent today than some teams possess in their entire minor league system. Bautista is developing slowly, strikes out a lot, and missed most of the season after his breaking his hand while punching a garbage can, however he can field nearly any position and has better patience than almost anyone in the system. Keeping him in the majors all year will be tough for Baltimore if they plan on gunning for the Wild Card, so Pittsburgh could get him back while pocketing $25K, but risking the loss of Bautista looks like an obvious mistake for an organization searching for quality infielders. He isn't a viable roto option barring shocking offensive development.

Cincinnati: David Mattox, Starter, NYM; 23, B:R, T:R.
8-7 on an 86:40 K:BB in 113.1 IP over 20 GS(21G)
with 103 H, 7 HR, and a 3.49 ERA for AA Binghamton(EL).
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 99%.
Probable Role if Kept: 5th starter/long reliever.
Fantasy Potential: Given the organizational desire to add more pitching, I expect the Reds to keep Mattox all season even if they need to employ 12 pitchers to keep him on the roster. He probably could pitch effectively in relief now without much difficulty, then spend most of 2005 in the minors rebuilding his arm strength to start, however Cincinnati will allow him to compete for a rotation spot in the spring. While Mattox seems a little too risky right now to trust as a starter, feel free to roster him in a reserve round if he only winds up in the bullpen to start the season since his upside warrants some fantasy consideration.

Texas: Chris Mabeus, Reliever, OAK; 24, B:R, T:R.
1-3 and 13 Saves on a 40:9 K:BB in 38.1 IP over 32 G
with 37 H, 1 HR, and a 3.52 ERA for AA Midland(TL).
2-0 and 2 Saves on a 30:6 K:BB in 23.2 IP over 18 G
with 19 H, 1 HR, and a 1.52 ERA for A+ Modesto(Cal).
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 50%.
Probable Role if Kept: Middle reliever.
Fantasy Potential: If the Rangers want to keep Mabeus, they have no reason not to use him regularly since he offers more upside than someone like Jay Powell. However, Mabeus also doesn't own a history of consistent dominance, so he needs to demonstrate this season wasn't a fluke in spring training. Unless he somehow ends up in the mix for saves in Texas, he also isn't a good pick due to his hitter-friendly home park and lack of upper-level experience.

Colorado: Matt J. White, 26, CLE; Reliever, B:R, T:L.
0-1 on a 0:5 K:BB in 5.2 IP over 6 G
with 13 H, 3 HR, a 9-11 G-F, and a 22.24 ERA between Boston and Seattle.
2-3 on a 39:16 K:BB in 45.2 IP over 1 GS(21G)
with 37 H, 3 HR, and a 1.97 ERA between AAA Pawtucket(IL) and AAA Buffalo(IL).
0-0 on a 3:2 K:BB in 3 IP over 1 GS(2G)
with 1 H 0 HR, and a 0.00 ERA for AA Portland(EL).
0-0 on 2:1 K:BB in 5 IP over 2 GS
with 6 H, 0 HR, and a 0.00 ERA for A+ Sarasota(FSL).
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 20%.
Probable Role if Kept: Lefty specialist.
Fantasy Potential: Boston selected White in last year's Rule 5 draft, and he split the first few months of the season between five different franchise thanks to a couple of minor injuries. Neither the Red Sox nor Mariners found him useful, so even though he rebounded once returning to the Indians, I can't imagine him finding much success with the Rockies. Considering Colorado already owns lefties Brian Fuentes and Javier Lopez, their remarkably successful Rule 5 pick in 2002, White isn't a good fit on their roster, although he also might wind up in waiverland yet again. Regardless of his team or role, White still isn't ready to help fantasy teams in 2004.

Kansas City: Jason Szuminski, Reliever, CHC; 25, B:R, T:R.
Traded to San Diego with cash for Rich Thompson
0-0 on a 5:1 K:BB in 12.2 IP over 2 GS(3G)
with 11 H, 0 HR, and a 3.55 ERA for AAA Iowa(PCL).
7-4 and 2 Saves on a 45:19 K:BB in 59.2 IP over 3 GS(29G)
with 51 H, 1 HR, and a 2.26 ERA for AA West Tenn(SL).
2-1 on a 23:9 K:BB in 24.2 IP over 13 G
with 29 H, 0 HR, and a 3.65 ERA for A+ Daytona(FSL).
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 75%.
Probable Role if Kept: Middle/long relief.
Fantasy Potential: A 27th round pick selected in 2000 out of MIT, Szuminski struggled the last two seasons following a decent rookie campaign. Of course, his AA performance this year, coupled with a strong showing in the Arizona Fall League, virtually insured some team would take him. He looks like roster filler at best right now, however his low homer rate and developing skills could make him a useful mid-season free agent if he continues improving.

Montreal: Andy Fox, 2B, TEX; 32, B:L, T:R.
21/108 for .194/.269/.259 with 0 HR, 8 RBI, 12 R, 1/3 SB%,
and a 7:29 BB:K for Florida.
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 50%.
Probable Role if Kept: Utility infielder.
Fantasy Potential: Considering many superior utility players appeared on this year's minor league free agent lists, paying $50K for an unimpressive big league veteran who already chose to sign elsewhere makes little sense to me. Hopefully the Expos realize their mistake and cut Fox loose in the spring, however if they keep him as I expect, consider him as an endgame pick since he still owns good speed skills and could post an acceptable BA thanks to the great hitters' parks Montreal calls home.

Toronto: Talley Haines, Reliever, TB; 27, B:R, T:R.
5-3 and 2 Saves on a 64:11 K:BB in 67.2 IP over 50 G
with 57 H, 5 HR, and a 2.53 ERA for AAA Durham(IL).
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 99%.
Probable Role if Kept: Middle relief.
Fantasy Potential: He probably possesses the strongest skills and most impressive statistical history of any pitcher chosen in this draft. While Haines also lacks the upside of other Rule 5 picks, he certainly should echo Aquilino Lopez's strong 2003 performance. Only my general concern regarding the volatile Toronto bullpen keeps me from thoroughly recommending Haines right now, however he still qualifies as a much safer choice than many endgame picks.

Chicago White Sox: Jason Grilli, Starter, FLO; 27, B:R, T:R.
6-2 on a 38:30 K:BB in 66.2 IP over 12 GS
with 64 H, 3 HR, and a 3.38 ERA for AAA Albuquerque(PCL).
4-2 on a 30:6 K:BB in 42.2 IP over 7 GS
with 38 H, 1 HR, and a 2.53 ERA for A+ Jupiter(FSL).
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 40%.
Probable Role if Kept: Spot starter/long reliever.
Fantasy Potential: His solid performance in the Florida State League marked the first time Grilli remained healthy and effective since 1999. Of course, while his pedigree as the fourth pick in the 1997 draft suggests he still possesses intriguing upside, nothing in his 2003 skills suggests he's ready to succeed in the majors. Grilli doesn't belong on a team that expects to contend for a division crown, and even if he earns a roster spot with a good camp, I don't envision him contributing to any fantasy teams next year.

St. Louis: Hector Luna, SS, CLE; 23, B:R, T:R.
137/462 for .297/.368/.359 with 2 HR, 38 RBI, 87 R, 17/22 SB%,
and a 48:64 BB:K for AA Akron(EL).
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 25%.
Probable Role if Kept: Backup infielder.
Fantasy Potential: Luna's speed and plate discipline skills indicate the potential for a successful transition past AAA to the majors, but any average above .250 still would rank as a surprise. The Cardinals' two Gold Glove All-Stars on the left side of the infield also will limit Luna to second base and pinch-running duty, so while he might not be a terrible endgame pick if he breaks camp in the majors, he isn't someone to target.

Boston: Lenny DiNardo, Starter, NYM; 24, B:L, T:L.
1-3 on a 36:13 K:BB in 40 IP over 7 GS
with 35 H, 3 HR, and a 3.60 ERA for AA Binghamton(EL).
3-8 on a 93:14 K:BB in 85 IP 13 GS(19G)
with 64 H, 1 HR, and a 2.01 ERA for A+ St. Lucie(FSL).
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 25%.
Probable Role if Kept: Lefty specialist.
Fantasy Potential: Boston severely erred when they kept Matt White last spring instead of Javier Lopez, who emerged as perhaps the year's best Rule 5 pick with Colorado. That decision eventually cost them Freddy Sanchez when they traded for Scott Sauerbeck, so hopefully the Red Sox will take advantage of this opportunity. DiNardo owns obvious command and dominance as a starter, and an impressive 27:3 K:BB in 18 Arizona Fall League innings as a reliever suggests he can succeed in the majors now. Boston's bullpen instability suggests you should wait until DiNardo secures a regular role before roster him, however his upside outweighs the potential for the Red Sox to waive him in mid-season, making him a decent endgame pick in deeper leagues with loose transaction policies.

Houston: Willy Taveras, OF, CLE; 21, B:R, T:R.
112/397 for .282/.381/.350 with 2 HR, 35 RBI, 64 R, 57/69 SB%,
and a 52:68 BB:K for A+ Kinston(Car).
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 99%.
Probable Role if Kept: 5th outfielder and pinch-runner.
Fantasy Potential: Houston selected a speedy young outfielder once again, but with Brian L. Hunter, Orlando Merced, and Henri Stanley all out of the organization, Taveras should remain as their fifth outfielder all season. Expect Taveras to compile numbers quite similar to those posted by Rule 5 pick Glen Barker in 1999, so a dozen steals and an acceptable BA aren't unreasonable expectations. Consider a Dollar Days bid for Taveras as he could earn somewhere around $5.

Round Two

Detroit: Mike Bumatay, Reliever, COL; 24, B:L, T:L.
4-1 and 1 Save on a 69:29 K:BB in 55.1 IP over 40 G
with 42 H, 4 HR, and a 2.60 ERA for AA Tulsa(TL).
0-0 and 2 Saves on a 16:5 K:BB in 9 IP over 8 G
with 1 H, 0 HR, and a 0.00 ERA for A+ Visalia(Cal).
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 75%.
Probable Role if Kept: Middle reliever.
Fantasy Potential: Colorado swiped Bumatay from Pittsburgh in last year's Rule 5 minor league draft, but after acquiring Javier Lopez in last years major league Rule 5 draft, they didn't need to keep Bumatay. Detroit also doesn't possess a great need for another lefty reliever thanks to Jamie Walker and Eric Eckenstahler, but Bumatay's repeatedly dominant performances in the minors should insure he spends the year with the Tigers. Unfortunately, his poor command makes him a bad fantasy gamble right now, but Bumatay still should emerge as a solid reliever in another couple of seasons.

Colorado: Luis Gonzalez, 1B/UT, CLE; 24, B:R, T:R.
137/431 for .318/.385/.436 with 7 HR, 62 RBI, 72 R, 1/1 SB%,
and a 46:41 BB:K for AA Akron(EL).
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 50%.
Probable Role if Kept: Utilityman.
Fantasy Potential: The sudden development of promising plate discipline in Gonzalez's third AA season sent his prospect status soaring, however he isn't a particularly good fantasy selection due to his limited quantitative upside. A utilityman with a .300 BA and eligibility at a couple positions is a nice player to keep handy, but his odds of contributing to successful fantasy teams are quite low. I'd like to see the Rockies nickname this Gonzalez "Homonym" as he lacks a middle name to easily differentiate him from the far better known Luis Gonzalez on Arizona.

Boston: Colter Bean, Reliever, NYY; 26, B:R, T:R.
4-2 and 4 Saves on a 70:27 K:BB in 69 IP over 50 G
with 53 H, 5 HR, and a 2.87 ERA for AAA Columbus(IL).
0-0 on a 9:2 K:BB in 4.2 IP over 3 G
with 2 H, 0 HR, and a 0.00 ERA for AA Trenton(EL).
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 10%.
Probable Role if Kept: Mop-up man.
Fantasy Potential: While the Red Sox probably possess too much pitching depth to keep Bean, he could win a job if someone like Ramiro Mendoza continue faltering. His impressive dominance makes him an intriguing alternative to Boston's finesse pitchers, however Bean's control problems also leave him with obvious WHIP downside, a potential problem both for the Red Sox and fantasy owners. I don't expect him to break camp in the majors, and unless he posts surprisingly strong skill ratios early in the year, Bean won't even merit much consideration as roster filler.

Round Three

Detroit: Lino Urdaneta, Reliever, CLE; 23, B:R, T:R.
0-8 on a 42:24 K:BB in 65 IP over 44 G
with 68 H, 4 HR, and a 4.29 ERA for AA Jacksonville(SL).
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 25%.
Probable Role if Kept: Mop-up man.
Fantasy Potential: Cleveland only signed Urdaneta as a minor league free agent from Los Angeles last month, although instead of developing as roster filler in a loaded Indians' system, he'll challenge for a job in the Tigers' very weak bullpen. Unfortunately, unlike Detroit's 2002 Rule 5 picks like Wil Ledezma or Chris Spurling, Urdaneta possesses little long-term upside, particularly since he hasn't dominated hitters in any of his seven professional seasons. He certainly doesn't merit fantasy consideration at this time.

I'll continue tomorrow with the minor league phase of the 2003 Rule 5 draft.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Teams only took 20 players this year after selecting 28 players last year and 12 in 2001. Of the 28 selected in 2002, 9 remained active with their new teams for nearly all season while another two spent all year on the DL. Javier Lopez and Chris Spurling each switched clubs during spring training yet still stayed in the majors all year. Last season's draft looks like an aberration due to the number of essentially wasted picks spent on lower-level minor leaguers who were not ready to contribute in the majors. Even if Hector Luna and Matt White warranted selections for the second straight year, and Travis Chapman and Jason DuBois developed nicely in the minors, teams generally selected prospects, watched them during spring training, and then returned them to their old teams. Aquilino Lopez, D.J. Carrasco, Luis Ayala, Mike Neu, and Detroit's threesome of Chris Spurling, Wil Ledezma, and Matt Roney were the only moderate success stories, and Lopez expectedly emerged as the most useful player in the draft.

While several teams appeared to choose wisely this year, the number of gamble again suggests we won't see more than a few of these players contribute in 2004 either in the majors or on fantasy teams. Shelton is an easy selection as the most promising long-term pick, however Toronto likely grabbed the best current talent by selecting Talley Haines, thereby adding a quality arm in the Rule 5 draft for the third straight season.