Today's Fantasy Rx

National League First Basemen without Positive Draft Value

Quick Key to the tables:
AB = At-bats.  H = Hits.  BA = Batting Average.  HR= Home Runs.
RBI = Runs Batted In.  SB = Stolen Bases.  R = Runs.  B = Bats.  T = Throws.
Pos = Position qualification based on 20 appearances or max. # of games in 2003.
2003 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2003.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 70/30 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2003 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2003 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

25.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Dave Hansen		135	33	.244	2	15	1	13	1
SD Padres		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	-1		0		-3
2003 Age: 34	5x5:	-1		0		-3

His 159 plate appearances in 110 games illustrate Hansen's role perfectly, and given his relatively unimpressive .244/.358/.333, he probably never should see regular playing time. The irony of his place on the Padres is that his pinch-hitting skills seem atrophied given his .164/.292/.200 line this year and his .185/.279/.278 performance in 2002. Yet he owns a batting average well over .300 and an OBP well over .450 when he starts, so perhaps San Diego should find him more starts. Unfortunately, the wealth of offensive options on the Padres prevents the establishment of any platoon with someone like Xavier Nady unless Phil Nevin or Ryan Klesko departs. Hansen's patience and plate discipline make him an acceptable roster filler throughout the season, but without any likelihood of more at-bats or a power spike, you shouldn't play him regularly.

26.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Matt Franco		134	33	.246	3	15	0	11	1
ATL Braves		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	-1		0		-2		R
2003 Age: 34	5x5:	-1		-1		-2

A complete second-half collapse negated Franco's impressive .317/.356/.439 performance before the All-Star break. He failed even to reach a .430 OPS down the stretch, and given his age and questionable skill set, only a superb spring training will keep him in the majors.

27.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Ron Coomer		125	30	.240	4	15	0	11	1
LA Dodgers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-1		0		-3
2003 Age: 36	5x5:	-1		-1		-4

While his .355/.379/.613 performance in 62 AB against southpaws should keep Coomer employed, his .352 OPS versus right-handed pitchers will cause most teams to opt for cheaper options with more upside. Due to his declining power potential and limited defensive flexibility, Coomer also offers little upside for fantasy teams even as roster filler, so ignore him unless he finds a very hitter-friendly home park with a team like the Rockies or Rangers.

28.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Hee Seop Choi		202	44	.218	8	28	1	31	1
CH Cubs		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	-1		0		3		8
2003 Age: 24	5x5:	0		0		4		9

A collision with Kerry Wood while chasing an infield pop in early June gave Choi a concussion that kept him on the disabled list for the rest of the month. Eric Karros' great play in June kept him in Dusty Baker's veteran-friendly lineup, and then the July acquisition of Randall Simon forced Choi to the minors in one of the more insane demotions of the season. Prior to the injury, Choi owned a .244/.389/.496 that gave him significant value to any manager not overly focused on batting average. While Baker also kept him away from almost all lefties, Choi at least should be able to duplicate those marks with the Marlins, especially since Pro Player Stadium is slightly friendlier towards lefties than Wrigley Field. Choi's .18 walk rate, 4.25 #P/PA, and 1.06 G-F all depict a player with tremendous power potential, and if he ever boosts his contact rate from .65 to .70, he could contend for an All-Star berth fairly quickly. Exercise caution in standard leagues since a likely below-average BA will limit his value to the mid-teens at best, but as long as Florida leaves him in the lineup everyday as expected, 25 homers and 75 RBI appear assured.

29.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Lance Niekro		5	1	.200	0	2	0	2	1
SF Giants		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-2		-1
2003 Age: 24	5x5:	-3		-2

Please refer to our Post-2003 Prospect Review: San Francisco for my comments on Niekro.

30.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Carlos Rivera		95	21	.221	3	10	0	12	1
PIT Pirates		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	-2		-1
2003 Age: 25	5x5:	-2		-1

Apparently neither a .263/.300/.435 performance in 252 AB for AAA Nashville(PCL) nor a sub-.655 OPS in Pittsburgh convinced the Pirates that Rivera belongs at AAA, forget about the majors. He managed equally bad numbers against all pitchers while demonstrating little plate discipline or power potential. Do not roster Rivera in any league you want to win.

31.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Mike Glavine		7	1	.143	0	0	0	0	1
NY Mets		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	-2		-1
2003 Age: 30	5x5:	-3		-2

Please refer to our Post-2003 Prospect Review: New York(N) for my comments on Glavine.

32.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Kevin Young		84	17	.202	2	7	1	8	1
PIT Pirates		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-2		-1		8		1
2003 Age: 34	5x5:	-3		-2		7		1

Young briefly landed with in the Twins' system following his release from Pittsburgh, but he left the team after a week for personal reasons. His career might be over given his lack of success with the Pirates this decade, especially since continual contact problems limit his power potential. Unless he unexpectedly breaks camp in the majors and compiles strong early numbers, Young won't merit any fantasy consideration.

33.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Mo Vaughn		79	15	.190	3	15	0	10	1
NY Mets		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	-2		-1		12		18
2003 Age: 35	5x5:	-3		-2		12		19

His career with the Mets mercifully appears over after two injury-filled seasons. While New York owes him another $19M regardless of whether he plays in 2004, I suspect neither the Mets nor Vaughn want to see him on the field next year. Vaughn enjoyed an extremely productive eight-year stretch for Boston and Anaheim, but despite remaining a patient hitter with intriguing power potential, health issues should keep him from returning to the majors.

34.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Larry Barnes		38	8	.211	0	2	0	2	1
LA Dodgers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	-3		-1		-5
2003 Age: 29	5x5:	-3		-2		-5

Although a .275/.326/.510 performance in 302 AB for AAA Las Vegas(PCL) earned Barnes an extended big league look, his failure to post even a .500 OPS will scare off most teams indefinitely. Barnes simply shouldn't merit another shot given the depth of impressive 1B/DH options in the upper minors.

35.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Bubba Crosby		12	1	.083	0	1	0	0	1
LA Dodgers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	-3		-2
2003 Age: 27	5x5:	-4		-2

Please refer to our Post-2003 Prospect Review: New York(A) for my comments on Crosby.

36.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jeff Liefer		113	20	.177	4	21	0	10	1
MON/TB		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	-3		-2		2		10
2003 Age: 29	5x5:	-4		-2		2		7

Disastrous performances with both the Expos and Rays cost Liefer his first serious starting spot and might force him to the minors until he improves his contact rate. Signing with the Brewers at least only leaves Lyle Overbay blocking him from another shot, but Liefer won't merit any roto consideration due to his poor overall skills even if Milwaukee promotes him at some point.

37.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Mark Grace		135	27	.200	3	16	0	13	1
ARI Diamondbacks		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	-3		-2		2		1
2003 Age: 39	5x5:	-3		-2		2		6

Minor injuries and advancing age sapped Grace's remaining offensive abilities this year, forcing the career .303 hitter to a surprisingly undignified end. Now he embarks on an extended broadcasting and/or managerial career, so we soon should see if Grace values players with very dissimilar approaches to his focus on making contact at the expense of limiting his power production .

38.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Daryle Ward		109	20	.183	0	9	0	6	1
LA Dodgers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	-5		-3		-1		5
2003 Age: 28	5x5:	-5		-3		-1		5

Ward ranked with the worst players in the majors even though the Dodgers kept him from facing all but a handful of left-handed pitchers. Diminished plate discipline and power potential simply left him with little offensive upside, although he at least rallied to post a .297/.343/.461 in 128 AB for AAA Las Vegas(PCL) once he recovered from wrist tendonitis. Signing with the Pirates provides him a great opportunity to resurrect his surprisingly unproductive career, as long as registers respectable numbers during spring training, I see no reason not to gamble a Dollar Days' selection on Ward to fill your roster.

'03 First Basemen Week concludes tomorrow, featuring Minor League Free Agent and AAA/AA First Basemen in the National League.

Today's Fantasy Rx: The only NL first basemen without PDV in 2003 who appears likely to make a significant fantasy impact in 2004 is Hee Seop Choi. Moving from Chicago to Florida will not severely affect his numbers, and if he receives regular playing time and regains his pre-concussion skills from this season as we expect, he should earn closer to $20 than $10.