Today's Fantasy Rx

National League First Basemen with Single-digit Positive Draft Value

Quick Key to the tables:
AB = At-bats.  H = Hits.  BA = Batting Average.  HR= Home Runs.
RBI = Runs Batted In.  SB = Stolen Bases.  R = Runs.  B = Bats.  T = Throws.
Pos = Position qualification based on 20 appearances or max. # of games in 2003.
2003 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2003.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 70/30 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2003 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2003 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

15.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Robert Fick		409	110	.269	11	80	1	52	1
ATL Braves		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	9		6		10		11
2003 Age: 29	5x5:	9		6		11		13

Fick's baserunning assault of Eric Karros in the playoffs reduce the likelihood of him finding a full-time role in 2003, however his skill development suggests intriguing potential if someone gambles on him. Even though his numbers crashed in the second half yet again, he still finished the season with a .289/.356/.440 against right-handers; playing in Atlanta also suppressed his power numbers to some extent. More importantly, both his .10 walk rate and .86 G-F are career-best marks since he earned a starting job in 2001, and a jump from .84 to .89 in his contact rate suggests a pending BA and power increase, particularly if he returns to the American League. Spending a few bucks on Fick in any spring draft easily could net you a double-digit profit.

16.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Eric Karros		336	96	.286	12	40	1	37	1
CH Cubs		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	8		6		1		6
2003 Age: 35	5x5:	8		6		1		3

Dusty Baker insanely kept Karros in the lineup regularly, allowing him to accumulate a .246/.286/.397 in 224 AB versus right-handed pitching. Fortunately the veteran at least managed a .366/.441/.545 against southpaws, so he looks like a very good fit one of the dozen teams needing a platoon partner for a left-handed 1B/DH. The likely further reduction in playing time will render Karros nearly useless quantitatively, but he also might approach a .300 BA if carefully spotted by a good manager.

17.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Ryan Klesko		397	100	.252	21	67	2	47	1
SD Padres		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	8		6		24		28
2003 Age: 32	5x5:	8		6		23		29

Despite season-ending should surgery in September, Klesko should fully recover by spring training, hopefully reversing his power drought in 2004. The addition of Brian Giles also should bolster his RBI total as Klesko should drop to the 5th slot behind Sean Burroughs, Mark Loretta, Giles, and Phil Nevin. The only downside here is that Klesko likely will lose eligibility everywhere except the outfield by 2005. Fortunately, if a winter of rest helps him heal, a return to the 30/100 level of production will keep him rather valuable. He still can't hit left-handers, but with his .95 G-F his best mark in a decade, his patience similarly increasing, and a likely contact rate improvement due to better health, I see an excellent possibility of a strong comeback. Feel free to push the bidding at least a few bucks past $20.

18.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Phil Nevin		226	63	.279	13	46	2	30	1/O
SD Padres		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	8		6				27
2003 Age: 32	5x5:	7		5				R

Surgery to repair a dislocated left shoulder cost Nevin the entire first half of the season, and then he only managed a .252/.317/.356 performance against right-handers once he returned. Although he still owns a solid all-around skill set, Nevin's upside appears entirely based on his domination of left-handed pitchers. Now he heads into Petco Park, which likely will suppress offense severely, so he may not approach $20 for a couple more years. I see very little reason to invest in an increasingly fragile player at an unfamiliar position in a new ballpark.

19.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
J.T. Snow		330	90	.273	8	51	1	48	1
SF Giants		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	6		5		0		5
2003 Age: 35	5x5:	7		5		1		1

San Francisco wisely retained Snow for only $1.5M, and if he maintains his .387 while hitting second, he'll certainly help the Giants. Although groin problems cost him much of the second half, his almost across-the-board skill improvement suggests he might reach double-digit value one more time. Snow is a nice sleeper in almost any league whose production now exceeds that value suggested by his popular reputation.

20.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Brian Buchanan		198	52	.263	8	29	6	29	1/O
SD Padres		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	6		4		2		2
2003 Age: 30	5x5:	5		4		2		7

A weak .74 contact rate and poor performance against right-handers keep Buchanan out of the lineup most days, however his .302/.415/.528 line in 106 AB versus southpaws makes him a perfect platoon partner for Ryan Klesko. Shifting to Petco likely will bring San Diego's down across-the-board, but I see no reason Buchanan can't remain productive as a primary reserve outfielder. If you secure solid speed sources early in the draft, feel free to target him during Dollar Days to complete your outfield.

21.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Julio Franco		197	58	.294	5	31	0	28	1
ATL Braves		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	4		3		-1		R
2003 Age: 45	5x5:	4		3		-1		2

The seemingly ancient Franco remains a very useful role player for the Braves despite admitting that he turned 45 this year, not 41 as previously recorded. Atlanta almost certainly will retain him as the veteran caddy for Adam LaRoche, although Franco easily could exceed 250 AB if Bobby Cox sours on the rookie at any point. While Franco's weak 2.39 G-F limits his power potential, a disciplined approach at the plate allows him to pound left-handed pitching, making him a respectable UT option or useful short-term roster filler at 1B/CR.

22.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Lyle Overbay		254	70	.276	4	28	1	23	1
ARI Diamondbacks		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	3		3		12		9
2003 Age: 26	5x5:	3		2		11		11

While Overbay effectively bombed his audition in Arizona, he posted another solid .286/.419/.479 performance in 119 AB at AAA Tucson(PCL), along with a 28:19 BB:K. Now that he looks like the undisputed starter in Milwaukee, expect him to cruise into double-digit value on the basis of a strong BA and surprisingly decent quantitative numbers. Even if he doesn't hit more than 15 homers, he still should produce sufficient stats to give you at least a slight profit on any bid below $10.

23.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Fred McGriff		297	74	.249	13	40	0	32	1
LA Dodgers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	3		2		12		17
2003 Age: 39	5x5:	3		2		12		16

Multiple injuries, age, and a move to a pitchers' park combined to eviscerate McGriff's fantasy value. Although he remains a respectable power threat, I see few starting spots available even though he only needs 9 home runs to reach 500. His failure to manage more than an .806 OPS against right-handers doesn't even indicate much upside for him as a platoon player, so he probably doesn't belong on standard draft lists.

24.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Tony Clark		254	59	.232	16	43	0	29	1
NY Mets		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	2		2		2		R
2003 Age: 31	5x5:	2		2		2		1

Mo Vaughn's expected injury problems provided Clark with somewhat regular playing time. Although he posted the second-worst BA of his career, Clark demonstrated his significant power potential while nicely rebounding from his atrocious stint with Boston last year. He qualifies as an excellent 1B/DH backup, and as long as he appears likely to receive another couple hundred at-bats, feel free to bid a few bucks on him in the endgame if you need another double-digit HR source.

'03 First Basemen Week continues tomorrow, featuring National Leaguers without PDV.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Most of today's players won't cost much in spring drafts since few appear likely to repeat their 2003 performances. The two first basemen extremely likely to improve next year are Ryan Klesko and Lyle Overbay, both of whom will merit bids well above their respective values this season. They look like obvious bargains and could be good targets, particularly if you obtain a top tier 1B and place Klesko or Overbay at your corner spot.