Today's Fantasy Rx

National League Third Basemen without Positive Draft Value

Quick Key to the tables:
AB = At-bats.  H = Hits.  BA = Batting Average.  HR= Home Runs.
RBI = Runs Batted In.  SB = Stolen Bases.  R = Runs.  B = Bats.  T = Throws.
Pos = Position qualification based on 20 appearances or max. # of games in 2003.
2003 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2003.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 70/30 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2003 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2003 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

17.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jose Macias		272	65	.239	4	22	4	31	3/O
MON Expos		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	0		1		4		5
2003 Age: 31	5x5:	1		1		4		7

Instead of establishing himself as a super-utilityman or even winning an outfield spot or even the third base job outright, Macias badly bombed in his first full season in the National League. If not for an excellent performance in Puerto Rico, Macias might have lost his roster spot by mid-season, however a .205/.219/.286 in the second half should spell his end in an Expos' uniform. Not only did his meager plate discipline disappear, Macias also failed to steal even a single base after July. At least he still owns decent speed skills, but until you see him receive the opportunity necessary to begin compiling helpful SB numbers again, Macias will not belong on your fantasy teams.

18.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Tyler Houston		97	27	.278	2	14	0	7	3
PHI Phillies		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	0		1		0		1
2003 Age: 32	5x5:	0		0		0		3

While his release from Philadelphia at the end of August surprised me, his failure to find a job in September seems truly shocking. Yes, he struggled after the break, but Houston also managed a superb a .448/.484/.586 performance in 29 pinch-hit at-bats. Any downturn in production seems more attributable to rust than skill degradation, although a career-worst 2.21 G-F limits his power upside. Don't view him as anything more than roster filler unless he returns to a more significant role.

19.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Matt Williams		134	33	.246	4	16	0	17	3
ARI Diamondbacks		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-1		0		5		4
2003 Age: 37	5x5:	-1		0		5		4

Williams' retirement following his June release made sense considering his refusal to depart Arizona for Larry Walker last fall. While he still owns decent skills, he appears quite unlikely to return to the game, especially since he only lost his job due to the Diamondbacks' rather senseless trade of Byung-Hyun Kim for Shea Hillenbrand. The 1994 strike cost Williams more than anyone as though Tony Gwynn missed a .400 season, he still will head to the Hall of Fame. Williams remained on pace to break Roger Maris' record when the season ended. Mark McGwire instead usurped Maris, leaving Williams well short of any career honor despite five All-Star appearances, four Gold Gloves, four Top-6 MVP finishes, and a World Series' ring with Arizona.

20.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Russell Branyan		176	38	.216	9	26	0	22	3
CIN Reds		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	-1		0		-2		2
2003 Age: 27	5x5:	-1		0		-1		4

The perpetually undervalued Branyan again allowed an abysmal .61 contact rate to destroy the promise suggested by his 4.05 #P/PA and .62 G-F. Even a .240 BA might allow him to post the .800 OPS apparently necessary to earn regular employment. As Cincinnati simply can't afford another strikeout machine in their lineup, don't be surprised if he heads elsewhere before next season. Branyan similarly won't merit much fantasy consideration until he either improves his average or secures the stable role necessary for owners to ignore the average drain due to his quantitative upside.

21.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Edwards Guzman		146	35	.240	1	14	0	15	3
MON Expos		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	-2		-1		-4
2003 Age: 27	5x5:	-2		-1		-4

Utilitymen usually need to register an OPS above .558 to remain in the majors even if they can handle catching. Although Guzmans's .352/.372/.460 performance in 213 AB at AAA Edmonton(PCL) warranted another big league opportunity and he could snag a bench job with a good camp next spring, his nearly complete lack of patience and power potential renders him useless for fantasy purposes. Only a respectable contact rate gives him any long-term upside whatsoever.

22.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Tim Hummel		84	19	.226	2	10	0	9	3
CIN Reds		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-2		-1		-2
2003 Age: 24	5x5:	-2		-1		-2

Please refer to our Post-2003 Prospect Review: Cincinnati for my comments on Hummel.

23.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Travis Chapman		1	0	.000	0	0	0	0	3
PHI Phillies		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-2		-1		-1		R
2003 Age: 25	5x5:	-3		-2		-2		1

Please refer to our Post-2003 Prospect Review: Philadelphia for my comments on Chapman.

24.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jim Chamblee		2	0	.000	0	0	0	0	3
CIN Reds		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-2		-1
2003 Age: 28	5x5:	-3		-2

Please refer to our Post-2003 Prospect Review: Cincinnati for my comments on Chamblee.

25.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Fernando Tatis		175	34	.194	2	15	2	15	3
MON Expos		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-4		-3		5		6
2003 Age: 28	5x5:	-4		-2		6		7

With his long-term albatross contract finally over, Tatis will need an unexpectedly excellent spring training performance or a good season in the minors to earn another big league opportunity. While he remains relatively patient, inconsistent defense and decreasing power potential leave his career at a crossroads. I see no reason to roster Tatis in any league until he demonstrates some ability to rebound from his rather disastrous three-year stint with the Expos.

26.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Garrett Atkins		69	11	.159	0	4	0	6	3
COL Rockies		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-5		-3		-4
2003 Age: 23	5x5:	-5		-3		-4

Please refer to our Post-2003 Prospect Review: Colorado for my comments on Atkins.

27.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Lenny Harris		145	28	.193	1	8	1	14	3
CHC/FLO		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	-5		-3		-3
2003 Age: 38	5x5:	-4		-3		-3

Registering four singles, one RBI, 3 Runs, and a 3:1 BB:K in 14 AB somehow convinced the Marlins to re-sign Harris despite his terrible performance over the balance of the season. He managed all of a .489 OPS as a pinch-hitter this year, and while improving patience might give him a shot at an acceptable OBP, I see no evidence to suggest Harris offers anything to fantasy teams.

28.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Brandon Larson		89	9	.101	1	9	2	6	3
CIN Reds		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-6		-4		13		14
2003 Age: 27	5x5:	-6		-4		13		15

Larson entered the year as a top Rookie of the Year candidate and instead posted one of the worst performances in the majors. While a couple of minor injuries limited his effectiveness, he only managed 4 hits in his first 48 at-bats before Cincinnati optioned him. An excellent rebound at AAA Louisville(IL), including a .323/.384/.617 performance in 282 AB, earned him another shot with the Reds, but he couldn't even post a .460 OPS in 41 at-bats before a labrum tear ended his season in mid-August. Expect Larson to receive a long look in spring training, yet although I like his long-term upside a lot, I suspect he needs a change of scenery to fulfill his potential after seven relatively unimpressive seasons with Cincinnati.

29.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
David Bell		297	58	.195	4	37	0	32	3
PHI Phillies		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-6		-4		13		13
2003 Age: 31	5x5:	-5		-3		14		11

Although Bell looked like a bad signing a year ago, no one expected him to rank with the worst players in the game. Chase Utley probably deserves a starting job far more than Bell, yet the veteran at least remained a solid defender. Bell should recover from the back problems that cost him nearly the entire second half by spring training, and considering he essentially maintained all his skills, expect a strong rebound if he's healthy since his contract essentially guarantees him regular playing time.

'03 Third Basemen Week concludes tomorrow, featuring Minor League Free Agent and AAA/AA Third Basemen in the National League.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Vinny Castilla's return to Colorado should delay Garrett Atkins' emergence by a year or more. David Bell similarly looks likely to end up sharing two starting jobs with Placido Polanco and Chase Utley. The best place to look for a bargain third baseman is Cincinnati, where Brandon Larson, Russ Branyan, or Tim Hummel should emerge as the starter. Of course, if D'Angelo Jimenez shifts across the diamond, none of these three will be worth more than a Dollar Days' flyer, but if any of them manages to win the job outright with a strong spring training, a minimal investment could net you a young starter with double-digit value.