Today's Fantasy Rx

National League Third Basemen with Single-digit Positive Draft Value

Quick Key to the tables:
AB = At-bats.  H = Hits.  BA = Batting Average.  HR= Home Runs.
RBI = Runs Batted In.  SB = Stolen Bases.  R = Runs.  B = Bats.  T = Throws.
Pos = Position qualification based on 20 appearances or max. # of games in 2003.
2003 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2003.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 70/30 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2003 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2003 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

10.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Wes Helms		476	124	.261	23	67	0	56	3
MIL Brewers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	9		7		1		7
2003 Age: 27	5x5:	9		7		2		3

Helms' power production certainly surprised me, however he should enjoy a nice run around $10 for a few years until Corey Hart earns the starting third base job in Milwaukee. While Helms' .314/.425/.581 performance against lefties at least suggests he fits best as a platoon starter, he owns enough offensive skill to develop into a respectable starter. A huge home/road split of .335 OPS limited his value in 2003, but if he improves on the road at all, a .280/30/100 season isn't impossible, especially if he replaces Sexson in the cleanup spot, hitting behind Scott Podsednik, Craig Counsell or Junior Spivey, and Geoff Jenkins. Although his unimpressive plate discipline makes his roto value rather volatile, Helms is a good choice for anyone looking for relatively low-risk power production for a reasonable fee.

11.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Chris Stynes		443	113	.255	11	73	3	71	3
COL Rockies		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	7		5		12		6
2003 Age: 30	5x5:	8		6		11		10

I remain somewhat surprised that Colorado didn't find a way to keep Stynes after this mildly respectable season, however I understand their desire to upgrade at third base. While his .284/.373/.455 performance against lefties and a .291/.357/.507 line at home depict a decent player, his .243/.318/.395 against right-handers and a terrible .218/.312/.315 mark on the road indicate obvious problems in a different environment. We also can't expect any power improvement after his promising .87 G-F in 2002 headed over his 1.72 career mark this year. At least career-best marks of a 3.90 #P/PA and a .11 walk rate demonstrate developing patience, and Stynes also could rebound from a career-low .83 contact rate. If he finds another starting job, he could echo these numbers to some extent, however Stynes might earn more fantasy value in a platoon role that takes advantage of his skills. Of course, don't target him until the endgame regardless of his role since the lacks the skills to offer you much roto upside.

12.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Miguel Cabrera		314	84	.268	12	62	0	39	3/O
FLO Marlins		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	7		5
2003 Age: 20	5x5:	6		5

His performance down the stretch probably makes Cabrera the most intriguing young hitter since Albert Pujols, and if he even meets general expectations, he could reach the All-Star Game as soon as 2004. A .73 contact rate doesn't particularly trouble me when paired with a 3.72 #P/PA and 1.39 G-F, respectable marks for a prospect five years older than Cabrera. Considering the translation of his .365/.429/.609 line in 266 AB for AA Carolina(SL) suggests Cabrera underperformed in his debut, feel free to exceed $20 in the spring on a hitter capable of approaching $40 before he turns 25.

13.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Adrian Beltre		559	134	.240	23	80	2	50	3
LA Dodgers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	6		5		14		21
2003 Age: 24	5x5:	7		5		15		19

While Beltre will enter his seventh season in the majors this year, sixth as a full-time starter, and likely will leave Los Angeles as a free agent following the season, he still only will turn 25 this April. Of course, he hasn't exactly developed, but a 3.80 #P/PA, 1.09 G-F, and .82 contact rate would look like strong marks for any other 24-year-old third baseman. If he ever returns to the .11 walk rate and .84 contact rate he posted he 2000, Beltre will reemerge as one of the best players at his position. However, he doesn't seem likely to regain that lost promise with the Dodgers, so limit your bids to the low double-digits for now.

14.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Pedro Feliz		235	58	.247	16	48	2	31	3
SF Giants		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	5		4		-4		R
2003 Age: 26	5x5:	5		4		-3

Feliz demonstrated no overt split this year, although he still appears likely to see no more than a platoon job with J.T. Snow. The impatient slugger owns impressive long-term power potential, so if you need a cornerman with double-digit homers and can afford a mild BA hit, strongly consider targeting Feliz.

15.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Greg Norton		179	47	.263	6	31	2	19	3
COL Rockies		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	3		2		5		1
2003 Age: 31	5x5:	2		2		5		1

The Rockies wisely offered Norton arbitration a couple days ago, so he should return as their top pinch-hitter. Considering he managed a .324/.385/.606 in 71 pinch-hit at-bats this year, Coors looks like a perfect place for Norton to remain productive. Although he offers little upside, he ranks with the best normally-available roster filler, and he definitely merits a late pick in leagues with decently deep reserve rosters.

16.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jamey Carroll		227	59	.260	1	10	5	31	3
MON Expos		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	2		2		3		1
2003 Age: 28	5x5:	2		2		3

Carroll emerged as Montreal's primary utility infielder, and he owns mildly intriguing potential thanks to good patience and decent speed skills. He also benefited from two surprisingly strong hitters' parks, but he should reap similar rewards with the Expos in 2004. While I don't recommend targeting him in most leagues, especially since he only qualifies at third base, he could help some teams by contributing a couple steals in a limited role.

'03 Third Basemen Week continues tomorrow, featuring National Leaguers without PDV.

Today's Fantasy Rx: The two third basemen listed above poised to experience leaps in value are Miguel Cabrera and Adrian Beltre. While both play in pitchers' parks, both also own sufficient hitting skill to enjoy increasingly productive seasons as they age. Cabrera, who won't reach his prime until near the end of the decade, is simply a special prospect who should flourish at the plate regardless of his position. Either player is a bargain below $15, although bidding above $20 also makes sense in leagues with obvious inflation.