Today's Fantasy Rx

American League Third Basemen with Positive Draft Value

Quick Key to the tables:
AB = At-bats.  H = Hits.  BA = Batting Average.  HR= Home Runs.
RBI = Runs Batted In.  SB = Stolen Bases.  R = Runs.  B = Bats.  T = Throws.
Pos = Position qualification based on 20 appearances or max. # of games in 2003.
2003 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2003.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 70/30 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2003 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2003 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

1.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Bill Mueller		524	171	.326	19	85	1	85	3
BOS Red Sox		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	26		18		9		3
2003 Age: 32	5x5:	25		18		9		4

While Mueller won the batting title in a rather weak year for top averages, his power development created much of his roto value. His ground-fly ratio dropped from 1.30 to a career-best 1.07 mark, however much of the improvement also appears tied to moving to the American League after seven seasons spent at some of the NL's best pitchers' parks. Of course, his .395 OBP also isn't surprising consider he twice exceeded .400 in the NL, so he could retain much of his current value even after this power peak passes. While you still should expect a decline based on his unimpressive contact, and he lacks the raw power to translate many of his 45 doubles into home runs, his fundamental batting skills make him a good pick in 2004 in the neighborhood of $20.

2.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Hank Blalock		567	170	.300	29	90	2	89	3
TEX Rangers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	24		17		11		10
2003 Age: 22	5x5:	24		17		11		10

While Blalock's patience slightly slipped from his 2002 numbers, a jump from .71 to .83 in his contact rate keyed his .300 average. A .73 G-F also indicates significant power potential, particularly since he just turned 23 in November. Unfortunately, he also generally slumped in the second half, he hit poorly on the road, and he only managed a .209/.245/.295 performance against left-handers. I doubt any of these issues will present a significant obstacle in his long-term growth, but he isn't an outstanding selection in 2004. Although Blalock should hit $30 within the next couple of the years and $40 by the end of the decade, expecting much more than a very strong echo of his 2002 numbers is a mistake.

3.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Eric Chavez		588	166	.282	29	101	8	94	3
OAK Athletics		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	24		17		27		27
2003 Age: 25	5x5:	24		17		25		27

A combination of forces makes Chavez's immediate future difficult to predict. Despite over five full seasons in Oakland, he only turned 26 yesterday, so he could enjoy a breakout season at any time. He also could leave as a free agent following the 2004 season, a possibility that might interest him if the continued exodus of lineup support keeps the Athletics out of the playoffs next year. We also can't expect much improvement unless he learns how hit left-handers or slumps in the first half again. The good news here centers on career-best marks of a .85 contact rate and 3.88 #P/PA. If his ground-fly ratio drops from 1.06 near his .74 G-F from 2002, Chavez should approach 40 homer, not to mention 120 RBI if the hitters ahead of him reach base regularly. While I don't quite see enough overall development to expect him to reach those levels in 2004, Chavez appears ready to enjoy a career year in the neighborhood of .290/35/110/10/100.

4.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Corey Koskie		469	137	.292	14	69	11	76	3
MIN Twins		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	20		14		22		21
2003 Age: 30	5x5:	20		14		22		18

A broken hamate bone in his right wrist limited Koskie's production in December and might reduce his power output at the beginning of 2004. However, if his formerly sore back is healed as expected, we could see him approach his quantitative production from 2001. Koskie should spend next season hitting and playing third for the Twins as he approaches free agency, although I don't really expect Minnesota to let him leave. When healthy, he ranks among the league's top third basemen, and his skills indicate intriguing immediate upside. A .16 walk rate, 4.08 #P/PA, and .98 G-F all are career-best marks, so if he bumps his .75 contact rate upward a few points while performing better against left-handed pitchers, his value could approach $30. Reaching that level of excellence is somewhat unlikely, but he definitely looks like a good gamble in the mid-$20 range.

5.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Shea Hillenbrand		515	144	.280	20	97	1	60	3/1
BOS/ARI		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	16		11		6		10
2003 Age: 28	5x5:	16		11		8		10

Hillenbrand will remain at third base next year, insuring he retains respectable value despite questionable offensive skills. A relatively stable .86 contact rate, coupled with a dropping 1.42 G-F, suggests he should hit 20 homers annually for the next few years. Unfortunately, limited patience and weak plate discipline leave him subject to BA fluctuations. Bidding above the low double digits for Hillenbrand looks like a mistake.

6.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Joe Randa		502	146	.291	16	72	1	80	3
KC Royals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	16		11		11		10
2003 Age: 33	5x5:	16		12		12		12

Career-best marks of a 3.92 #P/PA and .92 G-F, coupled with a second-half surge, all indicate that the Royals were wise to keep Randa for another year or two. As Kansas City lacks any competent challengers at third base, he should see another 500 at-bats, and if they move Randa down in the order as expected, we could see a mild rise in his power numbers unless the likely changes to Kauffman Stadium reduces the Royals' offense across-the-board. Expect Randa to maintain the roughly .285/15/85 he averaged over the past five seasons since rejoining Kansas City. Interestingly, both his stolen bases and caught stealings have declined in each of those seasons, though since he was successful in his only SB opportunity this year, I see no reason he won't steal another base or two.

7.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Scott Spiezio		521	138	.265	16	83	6	69	3/1
ANA Angels		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	13		10		20		15
2003 Age: 31	5x5:	14		10		19		14

Despite an uptick in his homers, Speizio's falling batting average pushes him under $15. Only his continued qualification at third base makes him an overly intriguing pick for 2004. Unfortunately, a career-worst .94 G-F suggests decreasing power potential, and a drop in his contact rate from .89 to .87 similarly reduces his overall offensive upside. Of course, consistent problems at home in Anaheim means that he might find more success wherever he lands next year. More importantly, after dominating left-handers in 2002 and flailing badly against southpaws in 2003, I expect his splits to narrow to a slightly higher level of production than he managed this season. As long as he lands a starting job in a decent hitters' park, he merits another bid in the mid-double digits.

8.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Casey Blake		557	143	.257	17	67	7	80	3/1
CLE Indians		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	11		8		13
2003 Age: 30	5x5:	12		9		12		1

Although Blake almost certainly isn't a long-term solution for the Indians, I expect him to continue starting at least until he qualifies for arbitration after 2005, at which point Cleveland likely will move him to a 3B-needy team that will overpay him for a three-year deal. So how will Blake perform before he joins the Pirates? A poor second half dropped his overall value from a peak in the mid-teens, however a .80 contact rate, 3.89 #P/PA, and 1.15 G-F all suggest the potential for a $20 season in either of the next two years. Unfortunately, we must remember that Blake turned 30 in August, so he isn't likely to develop anything other than slightly more power on offense. He should reach 20 homers in 2004, but a continued sub-.270 BA will keep his value in the neighborhood of $10, leaving him as no more than a fallback 3B option and preferably a cornerman for most owners.

9.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Joe Crede		536	140	.261	19	75	1	68	3
CH White Sox		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	10		7		9		21
2003 Age: 25	5x5:	11		8		10		19

With a .86 contact rate and a .79 G-F, reaching 30 homers is only a matter of time, and once he learns to high right-handers, Crede should begin appearing on All-Star teams. More importantly, if he simply builds on his .308/.349/.543 second half performance, Crede will reach at least $20 in 2004. He certainly looks like a good sleeper right now, making him an attractive to target to everyone, as well as offering excellent long-term upside in keeper leagues.

10.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Eric Hinske		449	109	.243	12	63	12	74	3
TOR Blue Jays		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	10		7		18		20
2003 Age: 26	5x5:	11		8		19		20

Although Hinske experienced a very traditional sophomore slump, he enters his third year in the majors at age 26, a combination that could lead to an impressive rebound. A 36-point BA drop accounted for almost all of his OPS decrease, yet Hinske's contact rate improved from .76 to .77. He similarly increased from a 3.91 to .08 #P/PA and impressively fell from a 1.04 to .89 G-F. Combine this skill development with another outstanding year of baserunning as he attempted another 14 steals and successfully stole a dozen bases, and I see no reason why he won't double this value. Almost all his 2003 problems stemmed from a broken hand that bothered him all season, so unless he suffers another fluke injury, Hinske should earn you a nice profit after you grab him at a bargain at your draft.

11.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Damian Rolls		373	95	.255	7	46	11	43	3/O
TB Devil Rays		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	9		7		1		R
2003 Age: 26	5x5:	9		6		1		R

Expect Rolls to remain on Tampa's bench, providing good speed skills, decent patience, and a little power. However, his weak plate discipline worries me, suggesting likely BA erosion, so don't treat him as more than an endgame gamble with double-digit SB upside.

12.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Troy Glaus		319	79	.248	16	50	7	53	3
ANA Angels		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	9		6		16		23
2003 Age: 27	5x5:	9		6		17		28

After missing the last ten weeks of the season due to a partially torn rotator cuff in his right shoulder, Glaus opted against surgery at the advice of his doctors, so he'll spend the winter rehabbing. Considering the throw he needs to make at third base, this situation concerns me, and with Dallas McPherson charging through the system and Glaus entering free agency after 2004, don't count on a full season from him. Of course, he also posted a career-best 77 contact rate, suggesting we should see the second highest batting average of his career next season, possibly even above .260. Drafting Glaus is a risky proposition, but another .250/30/100 season looks like his minimum level of production if he reaches 500 at-bats, making him an acceptable buy anywhere under $20.

13.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Tony Batista		631	148	.235	26	99	4	76	3
BAL Orioles		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	8		6		14		16
2003 Age: 29	5x5:	9		7		16		17

With a career-best .84 contact rate and solid .70 G-F, Batista should remain near the 30/100 level for another few years, and we even might see his batting average return to his .253 career norm after he leaves Baltimore. I wouldn't be surprised to see Batista's value double under the right circumstances as he appears quite underrated right now. If he lands in the right situation, feel free to push bidding into the teens since his skills indicate pending improvement.

14.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Eric Munson		313	75	.240	18	50	3	28	3
DET Tigers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	6		4		4		1
2003 Age: 25	5x5:	5		4		6		2

A few relatively minor injuries limited Munson this season, however he should be fully recovered for spring training and more comfortable playing third base. His .81 contact rate last year actually appears pretty solid compared to his minor league numbers, particularly when paired with a 1.17 G-F and .11 walk rate. If Detroit adds a couple decent hitters by the start of the season, Munson's power potential could lead to a significant quantitative contribution. We worry about his batting average, but he at least appears able to reach a level that won't hurt your team. .

15.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Robin Ventura		392	95	.242	14	55	0	42	3/1
NYY/LA		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	4		3		7		15
2003 Age: 36	5x5:	4		3		8		14

The veteran cornerman re-upped with the Dodgers yesterday, virtually ensuring the end of his usefulness to roto teams due to his declining batting average. While he remains a patient hitter with mildly intriguing power potential, the degradation of his contact rate leaves him unlikely to approach a league-average BA. If you need power and can afford a BA hit, consider him as an endgame COR if he enters the season as a starter, but otherwise only employ Ventura as roster filler.

16.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Howie Clark		70	25	.357	0	7	0	9	3
TOR Blue Jays		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	3		2
2003 Age: 29	5x5:	2		2

Despite only managing a .258/.316/.369 performance in 252 AB for AAA Syracuse(IL), Clark excelled in a limited role with Toronto. Although he lacks overt power potential and plate discipline, a .91 contact rate fueled another high batting average, however even after two strong seasons in the majors, I see little suggesting Clark can maintain his numbers indefinitely. While he won't hurt you as roster filler, he possesses no upside to fantasy owners.

17.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Willie Bloomquist		196	49	.250	1	14	4	30	3
SEA Mariners		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	2		1		3
2003 Age: 25	5x5:	2		2		3

Bloomquist demonstrated intriguing speed skills in the minors, but his failure to register many steals in the majors leaves with little roto value. While he offers limited upside as a late-round pick, I see little here worth recommending in standard leagues.

18.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Todd Zeile		299	68	.227	11	42	1	40	3/1
NYY/MON		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	1		1		-2		1
2003 Age: 38	5x5:	2		2		-2		R

New York dumped the veteran following the acquisition of Aaron Boone. Zeile rebounded after signing with Montreal, demonstrating improved all-around offensive potential, supported by excellent plate patience. Of course, he appears unlikely to earn more than a few bucks again regardless of where he lands for 2004, so treating him as more than a Dollar Days' fallback option who might net double-digit homers appears appropriate.

19.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Julius Matos		57	15	.263	2	7	1	7	3
KC Royals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	1		1		-2
2003 Age: 28	5x5:	0		0		-2

The minor league free agent possesses no more than meager plate discipline, making him a bad gamble despite decent quantitative upside even if he breaks camp in the majors next spring. Matos' .288/.324/.396 performance over 371 AB for AAA Omaha(PCL) suggests he only owns the potential to post a decent albeit effectively empty batting average.

'03 Third Basemen Week continues tomorrow, featuring American Leaguers without PDV.

Today's Fantasy Rx: The list of quality AL third basemen remains rather stagnant with Mueller and Blalock likely to slump to some extent next year and Eric Chavez showing few signs of a true breakout other than his advancing age. Corey Koskie might emerge as the best 2004 bargain if he remains healthy, however Eric Hinske, Troy Glaus, and Joe Crede all appear more intriguing as each could push over $20 if they can maintain decent batting averages.