Today's Fantasy Rx

National League Second Basemen without Positive Draft Value

Quick Key to the tables:
AB = At-bats.  H = Hits.  BA = Batting Average.  HR= Home Runs.
RBI = Runs Batted In.  SB = Stolen Bases.  R = Runs.  B = Bats.  T = Throws.
Pos = Position qualification based on 20 appearances or max. # of games in 2003.
2003 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2003.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 70/30 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2003 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2003 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

23.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Pokey Reese		107	23	.215	1	12	6	9	2
PIT Pirates		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	0		0		17		8
2003 Age: 30	5x5:	0		0		15		10

Hopefully a season-ending ligament tear in this thumb, sustained during a headfirst slide in mid-May, will cure Calvin of his worst habit, particularly since he appears ready to enjoy for a few productive skills. While he hasn't cracked a .700 OPS in three years, we've seen welcome fundamental skill development. His 6/6 SB% this season demonstrates his continued baserunning proficiency, but more importantly, he posted career-best marks of a 4.33 #P/PA and .79 G-F, along with an acceptable .08 walk rate. A career-worst .71 contact was the reason his averages were so low, and if that rebounds and he remains healthy as we expect, Reese could post helpful numbers in several categories. Consider him a solid option for your middle infield at anything much below $15, although I suspect he won't cost nearly that much in the vast majority of leagues.

24.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Chase Utley		134	32	.239	2	21	2	13	2
PHI Phillies		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	0		0		-3
2003 Age: 24	5x5:	-1		0		-3

Philadelphia hopefully didn't harm the development of the organization's best young hitter by giving him multiple brief looks in the majors as an injury replacement for David Bell and Placido Polanco. He probably merited a full-season starting job, though at least Utley remained productive in the minors, posting a .323/.390/.517 performance in 431 AB at AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre(IL). Given his 3.81 #P/PA and .98 G-F, Utley appears ready to begin compiling a long string of annual double-digit fantasy values. If the Phillies clear a spot for him by draft day, feel free to bid into the low double-digits; otherwise target him with your first reserve or minor league pick since he still should emerge as a starting infielder in Philadelphia no later than 2005.

25.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jeff Reboulet		261	63	.241	3	25	2	37	2
PIT Pirates		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	0		0		-2
2003 Age: 39	5x5:	1		1		-2

The nearly 40-year-old reserve infielder may not receive another chance to continue as 12-year big league career during which he only exceeded a .260 BA twice. Despite very good patience, his lack of quantitative upside and contact problems leave Reboulet worthless to fantasy teams, so ignore him even if he spends one more season in the majors.

26.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Mark Bellhorn		249	55	.221	2	26	5	27	2/3
CHC/COL		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	-1		0		6		13
2003 Age: 29	5x5:	-1		0		7		11

I don't expect to forgive the Cubs' for their abominable treatment of Bellhorn any time soon. Somehow deciding that his .258/.374/.512 performance last year wasn't an acceptable output at second base, they shifted him to third base despite extensive reports that he lacked the glove for third. The self-fulfilling prophecy unsurprisingly came true as the new Chicago regime quickly tired of Bellhorn's high strikeout totals and occasional fielding lapses. Of course, they also ignored a respectable .341 OBP and the potential of deploying a switch-hitting infielder every day for the rest of the decade. A smart coaching staff might have noticed that Bellhorn nearly doubled his ground-fly rate from .79 to a 1.47 mark, which understandably depressed his power output. Given the Cubs' lack that smart coaching staff, the organization instead gave away one of the best four batters in the organization to Colorado to bring back Jose Hernandez. While the Cubs eventually included Jose Hernandez in the deal for Aramis Ramirez, wasting Bellhorn remains an inexcusable mistake. If given a full-time job, especially with Coors for a home park, he could approach $30 due to his significant power potential. Despite the obvious BA risk if his contact rate remains if his contact rate remains below .70, Bellhorn qualifies as a superb sleeper in spring drafts anywhere in single digits.

27.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jesse Garcia		10	4	.400	0	2	0	6	2
ATL Braves		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-1		-1		-5
2003 Age: 30	5x5:	-2		-1		-5

Compiling a .306/.329/.374 performance over 425 AB for AAA Richmond(IL) earned Garcia another look with the Braves, and given his high batting average and strong speed skills, he should enter next season as a big league reserve. However, Garcia's extreme impatience at the plate suggests you should wait until he registers a few steals and a decent BA before considering him on any team.

28.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Pablo Ozuna		40	8	.200	0	2	3	5	2
COL Rockies		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-1		-1		17		4
2003 Age: 29	5x5:	-2		-1		17		8

A sprained knee ceded the starting second base job to Ron Belliard. Ozuna's unimpressive performance while rehabbing kept him from seeing regular playing time in Colorado, and now he might not receive another opportunity with the Rockies due to the quick rise of a few young infielders. While Ozuna still owns intriguing speed skills, don't roster him until he demonstrates an ability to take advantage of his SB upside after securing a bench job in the majors.

29.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Keith Lockhart		95	23	.242	3	8	0	18	2
SD Padres		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	-1		-1		-6
2003 Age: 38	5x5:	-1		-1		-5

Another fairly unimpressive season led San Diego to release Lockhart at the end of September. Given his age and limited skill set, he neither belongs on a fantasy baseball team or big league roster. Definitely ignore Lockhart even if he takes advantage of a likely invitation to spring training.

30.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Marcos Scutaro		75	16	.213	2	6	2	10	2
NY Mets		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-1		-1		-3
2003 Age: 27	5x5:	-2		-1		-4

Oakland smartly snagged Scutaro off waivers from New York two months ago. Registering a .311/.401/.520 in 244 AB during yet another season at AAA Norfolk(IL) clearly caught Billy Beane's eye, and although Scutaro's BA problems make him a risky pickup, he also managed a 4.10 #P/PA and 1.00 G-F with the Mets. Those strong base skills give him a good chance to blossom if given regular playing time, so consider a late-round gamble on Scutaro if he breaks camp in the majors..

31.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
David Matranga		5	1	.200	1	1	0	1	2
HOU Astros		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-2		-1
2003 Age: 26	5x5:	-3		-1

Please refer to our Post-2003 Prospect Review: Houston for my comments on Matranga.

32.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Bobby Hill		7	2	.286	0	0	0	1	2
CHC/PIT		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	-2		-1		12		8
2003 Age: 25	5x5:	-3		-2		12		9

While acquiring Aramis Ramirez proved a great move for the Cubs, giving up Hill instead of a pitching prospect or two will be a mistake in the long run. Despite injury problems, Hill managed a .269/.349/.400 performance with a 45:73 BB:K in 427 AB between AAA Iowa and AAA Nashville in the Pacific Coast League. Although his low SB total worries us, I still expect him to develop into a solid starting basemen and leadoff man, likely holding those spots in Pittsburgh for the next several years. I see no problem spending at least several dollars on him in any standard roto league.

33.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Tripp Cromer		4	1	.250	0	1	0	0	2
HOU Astros		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-2		-1
2003 Age: 35	5x5:	-3		-2

Considering Cromer hadn't played in the majors since 2000 and hadn't registered respectable stats since 1997, he likely won't reach the big leagues again. Certainly don't roster Cromer even if he defies the odds a second time.

34.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Nick Punto		92	20	.217	1	4	2	14	2
PHI Phillies		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	-2		-1		-4
2003 Age: 25	5x5:	-2		-1		-4

Traded to Minnesota with Carlos Silva and a PTBNL for Eric Milton earlier this week, Punto almost certainly will spend next season pushing Luis Rivas and Cristian Guzman for more playing time. He stole 42 bases only a year ago and posted a 4.10 #P/PA this season while taking advantage of his strong speed skills by maintaining a 2.50 G-F. Drafting Punto during Dollar Days could net you double-digit steals with an acceptable average for a minimal investment.

35.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Danny Garcia		56	12	.214	2	6	0	5	2
NY Mets		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-2		-1
2003 Age: 23	5x5:	-3		-1

Please refer to our Post-2003 Prospect Review: New York(N) for my comments on Garcia.

36.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Joe Thurston		10	2	.200	0	0	0	2	2
LA Dodgers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	-2		-1		10		9
2003 Age: 24	5x5:	-3		-2		9		10

Please refer to our Post-2003 Prospect Review: Los Angeles for my comments on Thurston.

37.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Rickie Weeks		12	2	.167	0	0	0	1	2
MIL Brewers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-2		-1
2003 Age: 21	5x5:	-3		-2

Please refer to our Post-2003 Prospect Review: Milwaukee for my comments on Weeks.

38.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Brent Butler		90	19	.211	1	4	1	13	2
COL Rockies		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-3		-2		2		5
2003 Age: 25	5x5:	-3		-2		3		9

Hopefully the Rockies realize that Butler's 2.96 #P/PA shouldn't earn him another extended look as a starter. While he possesses moderately intriguing power potential, his negligible patience makes him an offensive liability. Butler merits no more than an end-round gamble even if he breaks camp with Colorado next spring.

39.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Wilson Delgado		127	29	.228	0	7	0	12	2/3
STL/ANA		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	-3		-2		-4
2003 Age: 31	5x5:	-3		-2		-4		R

Delgado again failed to contribute offensively despite spending most of the season in the majors. While he owns decent patience, his complete lack of quantitative upside renders him effectively useless at the pate. Don't roster him in any league.

40.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Andy Fox		108	21	.194	0	8	1	12	2
FLO Marlins		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	-4		-2		6		6
2003 Age: 32	5x5:	-4		-2		5		6

Signing with Texas at least gives Fox some chance of regaining positive value. Historically he registers double-digit steals and a decent batting average every other year, so consider a Dollar Days' gamble on Fox and he might reward you with several dollars of performance.

41.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jay Bell		116	21	.181	0	3	0	11	2/3/1
NY Mets		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-6		-4		-1		1
2003 Age: 37	5x5:	-5		-3		0

Bell finally appears headed towards retirement after a reasonably distinguished 18-year career that features two All-Star appearances, a Gold Glove, and one World Series' win. While two straight seasons under the Mendoza Line indicate he no longer possesses acceptable offensive skills, I fully expect him to begin a successful managerial career very soon.

'03 Second Basemen Week concludes tomorrow, featuring Minor League Free Agent and AAA/AA Second Basemen in the National League.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Youngsters like Danny Garcia, Joe Thurston, and Rickie Weeks shouldn't receive significant playing time in 2003, leaving Chase Utley as the obvious best selection from today's players. Of course, Pokey Reese and Bobby Hill each could earn significant profit on minimum investments if they secure starting jobs thanks to their speed. If Marco Scutaro steals the starting job from Mark Ellis in Oakland, he also would be a nice investment for a buck or two. Lastly, if Mark Bellhorn secures a starting job with Colorado, his value should rebound above the level he reached in 2002.