Today's Fantasy Rx

National League Second Basemen with Double-digit Positive Draft Value

Quick Key to the tables:
AB = At-bats.  H = Hits.  BA = Batting Average.  HR= Home Runs.
RBI = Runs Batted In.  SB = Stolen Bases.  R = Runs.  B = Bats.  T = Throws.
Pos = Position qualification based on 20 appearances or max. # of games in 2003.
2003 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2003.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 70/30 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2003 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2003 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

1.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Marcus Giles		551	174	.316	21	69	14	101	2
ATL Braves		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	29		20		13		11
2003 Age: 25	5x5:	29		20		13		11

The likely departures of Gary Sheffield and Javy Lopez shouldn't affect Giles significantly since Furcal will continue to lead off while Chipper and Andruw Jones simply should move up in the lineup. My biggest concern here is that a 3.49 #P/PA is a sharp departure from the 3.86 mark Giles posted only two seasons ago, yet with career-best marks of a .85 contact rate and 1.04 G-F, his power numbers could increase. Giles' .78 SB success rate also solidifies his five-category potential. While I think a mild downturn is logical after this tremendous breakout season, his overall numbers still could improve if he avoids additional infield collisions. Letting him go for much less than $30 is a definite risk, and as his youth allows plenty of time for significant improvement, paying the going rate for Giles, particularly in keeper leagues, looks like a solid gamble.

2.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Luis Castillo		595	187	.314	6	39	21	99	2
FLO Marlins		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	28		19		26		24
2003 Age: 28	5x5:	27		19		25		31

Castillo's speed skills largely disappeared this year. While he demonstrated the best plate discipline of his career, and a drop from a 3.39 G-F to a 2.81 mark led to a career-best .778 OPS, he saw less pitches per at bat than in any of his previous seven seasons. An awful 53% SB success rate similarly worries me, although at least his new contract with Florida should insure he at least posts similar numbers over the next three years. However, expecting more than a .300 BA and around two-dozen steals seems unwise given Castillo's current skill trends.

3.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Mark Loretta		589	185	.314	13	72	5	74	2
SD Padres		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	23		16		8		2
2003 Age: 32	5x5:	22		16		10		5

While the odds of Loretta breaking $20 again appear quite remote, his skills support this level of production and he should remain a solid player, especially with a new two-year deal guaranteeing him a starting job through 2005. Josh Barfield likely needs the two seasons to develop into a productive major leaguer, and considering Loretta also can cover any infield position, he should hit no less than 400 at-bats in each of the next two years. Barring an unexpected injury, he also should clear 500 again as the Padres' #2 hitter, especially since he managed a .360+ OBP against both lefties and right-handed pitchers. Loretta's .89 contact rate, .09 walk rate, and even his 1.09 G-F all remain in line with both his recent trends and career norms, suggesting a strong follow-up season is quite likely; he even improved in the second half of this year. Any bid in the mid-teens is probably a good idea if you need a second baseman.

4.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jeff Kent		505	150	.297	22	93	6	77	2
HOU Astros		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	22		15		30		34
2003 Age: 35	5x5:	21		15		29		33

Left wrist tendonitis effectively crippled Kent's performance in late June and July. He only truly rebounded in September, yet he never exceeded six homers in any month as somehow his power output dramatically decreased despite leaving PacBell for Minute Maid. With Kent turning 36 in March, we might not see a significant rebound from the aging slugger, however he still at least owns solid offensive skills, making him an acceptable fantasy target around $20.

5.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Placido Polanco		492	142	.289	14	63	14	87	2/3
PHI Phillies		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	20		14		14		7
2003 Age: 27	5x5:	20		14		15		6

Everything about this season, particularly his career-highs in homers, steals, and OPS, suggests a career year, yet strong skill development indicates Polanco will remain one of the most underrated fantasy players. He even could have posted stronger numbers if not for a quadriceps injury that troubled over the last couple months of the season. The combination of a .09 walk rate and .92 contact rate helped Polanco demonstrate his best plate discipline ever, and he also produced respectable numbers against right-handers for the first time in a while. With David Bell not going anywhere in Philly and Chase Utley impressing in a regular role, Polanco likely won't hold his current job much longer, but his solid 2003 performance should insure he continues starting for another few seasons. Given his solid batting average and improving power and speed totals, bid him to the high teens.

6.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jose Vidro		509	158	.310	15	65	3	77	2
MON Expos		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	19		14		25		24
2003 Age: 29	5x5:	19		14		25		23

Knee problems limited his effectiveness in the second half, but Vidro also suffered from a few other minor ailments towards the beginning of the year. Fortunately, the new Olympic Stadium turf and an off-season of rest should keep Vidro healthy this year, propelling him back towards 600 AB as the likely batter between OBP impresarios Brad Wilkerson and Nick Johnson, who appears headed to the Expos any day in a trade for Javier Vazquez. Considering his health, surroundings, and the changing Montreal lineup, Vidro appears more likely to echo his .332/.418/.516 1st half performance than the mediocre .275/.360/.394 he posted after the All-Star break. Career-best marks of a .14 walk rate, 3.83 #P/PA, and .90 contact rate all indicate a potential surge, particularly with Vidro likely spending a quarter of the first half in Puerto Rico in 2004. My only concern is that the pending free-agent could find himself a new address at the trade deadline if the Expos struggle, but I don't doubt that his overall numbers still will rank among the game's second basemen. Feel free to push $25 or more when bidding in the spring.

7.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Eric Young		475	119	.251	15	34	28	80	2
MIL/SF		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	17		12		19		16
2003 Age: 36	5x5:	18		12		18		21

Although he failed to total 30 steals for the first time in a decade, Young remained a very useful fantasy player. Demonstrating his best patience and power potential in several seasons allowed him to match his homer total from the previous three years, easily compensating for his BA drop. If he lands somewhere more favorable to hitters than PacBell, Young easily could return near his .285 career average, making him an excellent target in any league, especially since he shouldn't cost much more than $15 and might approach $30 with a little luck.

8.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Mark Grudzielanek		481	151	.314	3	38	6	73	2
CH Cubs		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	16		11		5		2
2003 Age: 33	5x5:	16		12		5		5

The best years of Grudzielanek's career appear to occur when he misses part of the season to injury while posting a contact rate closer to .87 than .83. While Chicago might let him go, they instead probably will re-sign him rather than actually trying to improve at first base. Of course, he posted an excellent overall performance, increasing his OBP to an acceptable .366, however if his batting average drops below .300, Grudzielanek's value to both the Cubs and roto owners will drop rapidly. He ranks as a very risky pick in the spring despite this rather impressive season since I'm just not convinced he even can echo these numbers. Don't risk bidding into double digits for him.

9.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Ron Belliard		447	124	.277	8	50	7	73	2
COL Rockies		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	11		8		0		4
2003 Age: 28	5x5:	12		8		-1		3

Spending a season in Coors allowed Belliard to approach his career-best marks in every standard category. He also posted an impressive 4.07 #P/PA, leaving only his 1.69 G-F as a worrisome obstacle to further growth. Colorado's decision to release him looks like a mistake given Belliard's likely further BA growth. Of course, I don't envision him exceeding a dozen homers in a season any time soon, so avoid bidding into double-digits on Belliard due to his limited upside.

10.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Ray Durham		410	117	.285	8	33	7	61	2
SF Giants		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	11		8		28		24
2003 Age: 31	5x5:	11		8		28		24

Groin, ankle, and hamstring problems combined to sabotage Durham's NL debut. He never appeared comfortable running, rendering him nearly quantitatively despite a strong .300/.386/.440 performance in the first half. A fairly disastrous second half killed his overall stats, however if he appears healthy during spring training, he should cruise back above 20 steals with at least a similar if not improved batting average. I still see a lot to like in his skills, so fell free to target a healthy Durham, especially if you can grab him under $20.

'03 Second Basemen Week continues tomorrow, featuring National Leaguers with Single-digit PDV.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Durham is the only player listed above likely to experience a dramatic surge. Of course, based on skills and overall upside and ignoring the occasional SB-induced surge from someone like Castillo, Giles should continue to lead NL second basemen in fantasy value for much of the rest of the decade.