Today's Fantasy Rx

American League Second Basemen with Positive Draft Value

Quick Key to the tables:
AB = At-bats.  H = Hits.  BA = Batting Average.  HR= Home Runs.
RBI = Runs Batted In.  SB = Stolen Bases.  R = Runs.  B = Bats.  T = Throws.
Pos = Position qualification based on 20 appearances or max. # of games in 2003.
2003 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2003.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 70/30 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2003 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2003 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

1.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Alfonso Soriano		682	198	.290	38	91	35	114	2
NY Yankees		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	43		30		38		39
2003 Age: 25	5x5:	41		28		35		44

While Carlos Beltran's all-around excellence helped him exceed all other AL batters in fantasy value, Soriano finished only slightly back of the league lead. His strong second half easily pushed him past Bret Boone, and as he faces no serious rival in the NL, he should remain the best fantasy second baseman as long as he stays at the position. More importantly, his .06 walk rate, .81 contact rate, .75 G-F, and 81% SB success rate all were career-best marks. As his 3.55 #P/PA at least is close to his career norm, I see little reason for Soriano not to continue improving. If New York wisely moves him down in the order, a .325/50/130/30 season is feasible, and if they dumbly deal him to a team that plays home games in a hitters' park, he will join ARod as a perennial MVP contender. Soriano somehow seems underrated right now due to his obviously questionable plate discipline and defense, yet when we evaluate his offensive skills in the context of his past performance and age, no significant problems arise. Rostering him at less than $40 would be a stroke of luck, and bids close to $50 currently appear perfectly reasonable as long as New York allows him to run even if he stops hitting at the top of the order.

2.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Bret Boone		622	183	.294	35	117	16	111	2
SEA Mariners		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	34		24		19		22
2003 Age: 35	5x5:	33		23		19		20

Boone's rebound season stemmed from a return to mashing right-handed pitchers in spite of slumping against lefties. Yet a second-half power outage and growing contact problems suggest potential problems, particularly since he turns 35 around Opening Day. The good news is that his 3.93 #P/PA and a 1.16 G-F both indicate that he can maintain this approximate performance in the near future, although a drop in his steals appears somewhat automatic. Boone still ranks as one of the top AL second basemen. I just can't advise remaining in any bidding past $30 since he won't improve on these marks and could slump noticeably if he can't maintain a contact rate of even .80.

3.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Mike Young		666	204	.306	14	72	13	106	2
TEX Rangers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	29		20		10		9
2003 Age: 26	5x5:	29		20		11		8

The now 27-year-old second baseman tailed off after the break after registering fairly impressive averages in the first half. Of course, Young, also easily demonstrated the best speed skills of his career while improving his power potential thanks to a contact rate jump from .80 to a .85 mark. He owns the overall offensive acumen necessary to maintain double-digit homers and steals indefinitely, and he appears able to add another dozen points to his batting average fairly easily. Definitely target him in the spring wherever you need second baseman, particularly in 5x5 leagues where his run total only should increase as the Rangers' young sluggers develop.

4.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Adam Kennedy		449	121	.269	13	49	22	71	2
ANA Angels		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	19		14		19		18
2003 Age: 27	5x5:	19		13		18		15

Continued flailing against left-handed pitchers should force Kennedy into a platoon with Chone Figgins or Alfredo Amezaga. He lost his meager gains from 2002, and then hamstring problems contributed to a very slow start to the season. However, he dropped his ground-fly rate from .83 to a .66 mark while also demonstrating better contact and speed skills. Kennedy's development as he enters his prime suggests a potential 20/20 season in the near future if he improves against southpaws, but lacking that development, he at least should respectable all-around numbers, remaining just shy of a $20 fantasy value.

5.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Brian Roberts		460	124	.270	5	41	23	65	2
BAL Orioles		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	17		12		2		R
2003 Age: 25	5x5:	17		12		1		2

While Roberts failed to post a great OBP, finishing the season with a mediocre .337 mark, he still managed a .10 walk rate, .87 contact rate, and a 79% SB success rate. Given his career-high 3.93 #P/PA, I expect Roberts BA to continue increasing, and with his SB potential cresting well over 30 if he sees over 500 at-bats, Roberts could blow past $20 and head towards $30 with a little luck. Now, I recognize he struggled in the second half and didn't perform well against right-handers, but Roberts didn't even turn 26 until after the season. The major problem for him is that he resembles David Eckstein both in terms of skill set and build. However, if Baltimore either deals Roberts to one of the half-dozen teams desperately searching for a middle infielder with speed who could lead-off, or keeps him, deals Jerry Hairston, and moves Mike Fontenot to third base or the outfield, he should post very helpful roto stats over the next few years.

6.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Marlon Anderson		482	130	.270	6	67	19	59	2
TB Devil Rays		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	17		12		3		1
2003 Age: 29	5x5:	17		12		2		6

Anderson embraced the SB-focused offense of the Rays, easily reaching a career-high steal total even while registering a career-best 1.33 G-F, suggesting a possible power spike next year. He won't remain with Tampa indefinitely, but he fits fairly nicely right now and should enjoy another strong season. Feel free to bid into double digits in the hope of a 10-20 season.

7.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
D'Angelo Jimenez		561	153	.273	14	57	11	69	2
CHW/CIN		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	16		11		15		11
2003 Age: 25	5x5:	16		11		16		12

While we don't know if Jimenez will play second or third base next year, his performance after joining the Reds should assure him a starting job for the next few seasons. He gives them a viable leadoff hitter with All-Star potential, and although he generally wears out his welcome quickly, Jimenez appears comfortable in Cincinnati. Considering he turns 26 in a couple weeks, enters essentially his third full baseball season in the spring, and continues to excel offensively in winter baseball, I certainly believe Jimenez is ready to break out. He manages a good OBP against all pitchers, and if he even echoes the .290/.365/.421 performance he posted for the Reds, he should approach $20. If the sudden drop from a 1.65 to 1.22 G-F signals an additional power surge, Jimenez also could explore on the league in 2004 in a similar fashion to Marcus Giles' accomplishment this year. I see several reasons to question Jimenez's ability to consolidate his gains, but if finally fulfills the expectations of the scouts that originally projected him to be more successful than Alfonso Soriano, the White Sox always will regret giving him away to the Reds for a minor league reliever.

8.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Todd Walker		587	166	.283	13	85	1	92	2
BOS Red Sox		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	15		11		14		16
2003 Age: 30	5x5:	16		12		14		16

Boston erred by not consistently platooning Walker as they essentially wasted the 175 plate appearances where he faced lefties. However, if placed in a straight platoon, Walker might approach $20 thanks to the likely improvement in his batting average. Of course, depending on where he signs, he could earn anywhere from $5 to $25 next season, but if he isn't in a similar role on a strong team, bidding into the teens is probably a bad idea.

9.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Desi Relaford		500	127	.254	8	59	20	70	2/3/O
KC Royals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	15		10		13		6
2003 Age: 30	5x5:	15		11		13		8

At first glance Relaford appears to require a left-handed platoon partner considering his .646 OPS against right-handers and his 1.025 mark against southpaws this year. However, in each of the previous two seasons, he performed better against right-handed pitchers by roughly 200 points of OPS. A career-best .86 contact rate at least gives me hope that he'll remain successful against some pitchers, and his nearly two-dozen steals at an 83% success rate demonstrates that his speed will give him value even if his playing time decreases. Unfortunately, a massive second-half slump reduces my expectations for him in 2004, so avoid rostering Relaford if bidding enters double-digits.

10.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Luis Rivas		475	123	.259	8	43	17	69	2
MIN Twins		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	13		9		17		19
2003 Age: 24	5x5:	14		10		17		13

Declining patience and power potential depict a player stagnating offensively. Rivas owns little quantitative upside outside of steals, and he hasn't approached his 2001 SB total in either of the last two seasons. While his relative youth indicates some potential for a breakout, especially when fueled by a consistently improving contact rate, even a BA jump coupled with similar SB production should leave him short of $20. Bidding above $15 here qualifies as a definite risk.

11.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Orlando Hudson		474	127	.268	9	57	5	54	2
TOR Blue Jays		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	10		7		10		17
2003 Age: 25	5x5:	10		7		11		18

At least Hudson remains fairly young, but he needs to develop better plate discipline quickly to remain in Toronto's starting lineup. Rather than blossom in his first full big league season, he slumped badly in the second half while registering an absolutely awful .160/.222/.190 performance against southpaws. While Hudson certainly should improve those averages to some extent if the Blue Jays don't assign him a platoon partner, I see no reason to bid above single-digits here given the low likelihood of any abrupt upturn in fantasy value.

12.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jerry Hairston, Jr.		218	59	.271	2	21	14	25	2
BAL Orioles		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	10		7		19		16
2003 Age: 27	5x5:	8		6		18		16

Hairston's promising season ground to a halt in mid-May when he fouled a bone off his shoe, breaking his right foot. Until that injury, he appeared headed to a career-best season and a roto value over $20. His .11 walk rate and .89 contact rate both are his best marks since winning a full-time starting job, and his .99 G-F and 74% SB success rate similarly indicate significant immediate upside. More importantly, Hairston compiled a .287/.387/.382 performance in 157 at-bats with a 21:19 BB:K prior to his injury, so while I don't expect much power development, his BA/SB potential remains intriguing. Even if Baltimore deals him, Hairston should exceed $20 in 2004 as long as he continues leading off.

13.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Damian Jackson		161	42	.261	1	13	16	34	2/O
BOS Red Sox		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	9		6		2		R
2003 Age: 30	5x5:	8		6		2

With his fantasy value tied to his impressive speed skills, Jackson doesn't need a starting job to reach annual double-digit steal totals. He looks like one of the best cheap SB sources in the game given his position flexibility, so since he should break camp in the majors even if he stays with Boston, Jackson will turn a nice profit on the couple of bucks he'll cost in most standard leagues.

14.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Warren Morris		346	94	.272	6	37	4	37	2
DET Tigers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	7		5
2003 Age: 29	5x5:	7		5

A .277/.330/.408 performance in 206 AB with AAA Toledo(IL) earned Morris a shot with the Tigers, and he emerged as Detroit's starting second baseman in the second half. He recently signed a minor league deal to return to the Tigers next year, however his weak plate discipline and limited power potential should keep him in the minors most of the season, especially if Detroit remains committed to Omar Infante and Ramon Santiago. Morris won't merit any consideration even in very deep leagues unless he unexpectedly dominates the Grapefruit League.

15.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Mark Ellis		553	137	.248	9	52	6	78	2
OAK Athletics		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	6		4		16		6
2003 Age: 26	5x5:	8		6		17		12

Replacing Ellis with Esteban German offers significant more upside, both for Oakland and fantasy owners, however Billy Beane appears as enamored with Ellis as Hatteberg, Durazo, Chavez, and any left-handed starter. Of course, Ellis' overwhelmingly mediocre performance obscures his previous success in the minors and during 2002 with Oakland. He at least posted a solid April before his stats began dropping, and he maintained excellent plate patience and fairly solid power potential. The problem is that mild erosion in his walk and contact rates led to a severe drop in his on-base percentage. Hopefully embarking upon his third big league season will provide Ellis with sufficient incentive to improve on his diminished skills, but don't bid into double digits given his relatively low quantitative upside.

16.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Carlos Febles		196	46	.235	0	11	8	31	2
KC Royals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	2		2		14		11
2003 Age: 27	5x5:	2		2		14		9

Losing his 40-man roster spot in August forced Febles into minor league free agency, leaving unlikely to secure more than a bench job by spring training. Of course, posting the worst numbers of his career leaves Febles' future in doubt given he offers little more than decent speed and patience. His relative lack of position flexibility hurts his chances of finding work as a reserve, so he probably merits no more than a Dollar Days' pick even if he breaks camp in the majors.

17.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Antonio Perez		125	31	.248	2	12	4	19	2
TB Devil Rays		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	2		2		-2		R
2003 Age: 23	5x5:	2		1		-3

Perez posted strong averages this year and soon should emerge as Tampa's long-term solution at second base. However, his weak plate discipline suggests he needs another year of seasoning, so don't expect more than a few bucks of fantasy value from him in 2004. I still see a lot to like in Perez's stats, but he merits relatively little consideration unless he unexpectedly emerges as the Rays' starter during spring training.

18.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Dave Berg		161	41	.255	4	18	0	26	2
TOR Blue Jays		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	1		1		1		R
2003 Age: 33	5x5:	1		1		1		R

Berg spent most of the year subbing for Orlando Hudson and Eric Hinske against quality left-handed pitchers. While he demonstrated no overt skill deterioration, I also see little chance of much improvement in the near future. Only employ him as short-term roster filler.

19.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Chris Gomez		175	44	.251	1	15	2	14	2
MIN Twins		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	1		1		0
2003 Age: 32	5x5:	1		1		0

A nearly across-the-board offensive decline might push Gomez out of the majors. His career-best .93 contact rate suggests a potential BA surge, but he possesses negligible quantitative upside and no longer merits serious consideration as a regular starter. I see no reason to roster him unless an improving batting average somehow leads to more playing time.

'03 Second Basemen Week continues tomorrow, featuring American Leaguers without PDV.

Today's Fantasy Rx: A host of second base bargains should emerge by draft day thanks to the number of teams looking for new starters. Your best bet in the AL is to implement optimal bidding on second basemen since the sheer quantity of acceptable choices means that rostering a starter at a discount of no less than $5 will give you a useful competitive advantage.