Today's Fantasy Rx

American League Shortstops without Positive Draft Value

Quick Key to the tables:
AB = At-bats.  H = Hits.  BA = Batting Average.  HR= Home Runs.
RBI = Runs Batted In.  SB = Stolen Bases.  R = Runs.  B = Bats.  T = Throws.
Pos = Position qualification based on 20 appearances or max. # of games in 2003.
2003 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2003.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 70/30 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2003 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2003 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

19.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Ramon Santiago		444	100	.225	2	29	10	41	S/2
DET Tigers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	0		1		7		5
2003 Age: 24	5x5:	1		1		8		5

While Santiago didn't adequately improve his patience and his power potential slightly slipped, he bumped his walk rate from .59 to .74 and increased his contact rate from .78 to .85. The major problem here is he simply cannot hit left-handers. However, finding him a right-handed platoon partner should be a very easy task for the Tigers. Given his relatively strong minor league numbers, I see no reason why Detroit shouldn't give him one more full season of a starting job at a middle infield position. Santiago's developing contact rate should mean we at least will see his BA jump, especially if they keep him in the straight platoon he appears to require. A minimal bid on Santiago could net a nice profit, although due to his overall unimpressive skills, he shouldn't be a primary target of any owner.

20.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jose Morban		71	10	.141	2	5	8	14	S
BAL Orioles		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	0		1		-3
2003 Age: 23	5x5:	0		0		-3

While Morban might have helped BA-heavy teams desperate for steals, his lack of any experience above A+ prior to 2003 resulted in a horrible .141/.187/.225 performance on the year. He struggled when given more playing time after the break, so even though his perfect 8/8 SB success rate and a 3.97 #P/PA suggest moderate upside, he probably needs at least two more years of seasoning before even earning a bench job. I don't view him as a bad pickup for Baltimore, but many better players were available in last year's Rule 5 draft. Obtaining Morban from the Twins and wasting a 25-man roster spot on him for the entire year really didn't advance the franchise's rebuilding.

21.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Ricky Gutierrez		50	13	.260	0	3	0	2	S
CLE Indians		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-1		0		1		1
2003 Age: 33	5x5:	-1		-1		2		R

Gutierrez likely won't earn much more than minimum wage after 2004 even if he doesn't retire following his final year under contract in Cleveland. His career essentially appears over as the spinal fusion surgery he underwent in 2002 severely limits him physically and has lead to an erosion of his formerly decent skills, resulting in a ridiculously awful 2.98 #P/PA and 4.57 G-F. Don't plan on owning Gutierrez ever again.

22.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Omar Infante		221	49	.222	0	8	6	24	S
DET Tigers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-1		0		4		3
2003 Age: 21	5x5:	0		0		3		7

As Infante won't turn 22 for another month and didn't belong in the majors this season, I won't hold his performance against him to any great extent even though his .222/.278/.258 and 18:37 BB:K in 221 at-bats at AAA Toledo(IL) certainly qualify as a disappointment. The good news is that his 3.89 #P/PA compiled with the Tigers is a good starting point for a youngster. A .294/.342/.339 line on the road similarly suggests promising long-term upside. He needs several more months in the minors, however Infante easily could approach $20 sometime in the next few years. Don't risk more than a buck or two on him in standard leagues, but if you can snag him in a minor league or reserve round, he could emerge as a great bargain.

23.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Benji Gil		125	24	.192	1	9	5	12	S/2
ANA Angels		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-1		0		0
2003 Age: 30	5x5:	-1		-1		0		R

The utilityman finished the year by hitting .139/.139/.333 in 36 at-bats for AAA Buffalo(IL), so not only does he no longer appear capable of contributing in the majors, he probably belongs in the Atlantic League until these marks improve. Never a particularly good player, Gil's value vanishes when his batting average drops much under .285 since he possesses little power or speed. Definitely do not roster him in the foreseeable future.

24.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Alfredo Amezaga		105	22	.210	2	7	2	15	S
ANA Angels		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	-1		0		-2
2003 Age: 25	5x5:	-1		0		-2

Please refer to our Post-2003 Prospect Review: Anaheim for my comments on Amezaga.

25.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Felix Escalona		27	5	.185	0	2	1	2	S
TB Devil Rays		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-1		0
2003 Age: 24	5x5:	-2		-1

After wasting a roster spot for all of 2002 on the Rule 5 pick, Tampa Bay finally DFA'd him this May, whereupon Baltimore grabbed him off waivers. With the Orioles, Escalona struggled at his minor league stops and dislocated his right kneecap in June, which kept him out for several weeks. He then lost his 40-man roster spot in October. He probably will spend next season in the minors for Baltimore, but despite some SB potential, he isn't worth considering for your roto team any time soon.

26.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jhonny Peralta		242	55	.227	4	21	1	24	S
CLE Indians		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-1		-1				R
2003 Age: 21	5x5:	-1		0				R

Omar Vizquel's injury led to a hurried promotion and understandable offensive struggles for Peralta. Fortunately, he didn't play too badly with the Indians, and a .257/.310/.329 at AAA Buffalo(IL) combined with 3.91 #P/PA in Cleveland, suggests his long-term future remains bright. Peralta needs one more year of seasoning, and then he should replace Vizquel for good no later than 2006. While his general lack of speed limits his upside, Peralta also has displayed better power potential than almost any other shortstop with similar defensive skills, so targeting him in minor league drafts is a good idea. As long as he receives sufficient development time, he looks like a definite sleeper.

27.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Shane Halter		360	78	.217	12	30	2	33	S/2/3
DET Tigers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-1		-1		3		1
2003 Age: 33	5x5:	0		0		3		1

Somehow Halter received a good 200 at-bats more than he deserved this year, however the current free agent market effectively guarantees he won't receive significant interest. While he owns a little power, his consistently poor plate discipline makes any roto success a relative fluke. Halter only merits serious consideration as an Ultra pick for owners looking for a bench player with good position flexibility. He shouldn't appear on many successful fantasy teams in 2004.

28.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
John McDonald		214	46	.215	1	14	3	21	S/2/3
CLE Indians		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-2		-1		-2		1
2003 Age: 29	5x5:	-2		-1		-1		1

Consistently poor offensive skills leave McDonald with little value other than as a defensive replacement. He doesn't deserve an extended look as a starting middle infielder, since nothing in his stat history suggests latent talent at the plate. While a drop from 1.38 to .99 G-F indicates a potential power spike, his weak plate discipline likely still will keep his DV below $0.

29.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Bobby Crosby		12	0	.000	0	0	0	1	S
OAK Athletics		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-2		-1				R
2003 Age: 23	5x5:	-3		-2

Please refer to our Post-2003 Prospect Review: Oakland for my comments on Crosby.

'03 Shortstop Week continues tomorrow, featuring Minor League Free Agent and AAA/AA Shortstops in the American League.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Santiago, Infante, and Peralta could enjoy extended big league careers, but the two shortstops here who remain rookies, Amezaga and Crosby, are the future stars. While Crosby will be hyped by many, including us, as a potential Rookie of the Year candidate, Amezaga might cost just a couple bucks in the draft and easily could earn ten-times his draft price.