Today's Fantasy Rx

American League Shortstops with Positive Draft Value

Quick Key to the tables:
AB = At-bats.  H = Hits.  BA = Batting Average.  HR= Home Runs.
RBI = Runs Batted In.  SB = Stolen Bases.  R = Runs.  B = Bats.  T = Throws.
Pos = Position qualification based on 20 appearances or max. # of games in 2003.
2003 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2003.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 70/30 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2003 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2003 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

1.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Alex Rodriguez		607	181	.298	47	118	17	124	S
TEX Rangers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	38		27		36		41
2003 Age: 28	5x5:	38		26		35		40

Although he posted his worst overall stats since 1999, ARod still reigns as the game's best player, and Texas is foolish even to consider trading him. While a career-worst 3.84 #P/PA and .79 contact rate indicate some slow erosion of his skills, a .14 walk rate is his best mark since his Seattle days, his speed returned, and a .99 G-F continues to demonstrate his excellent power potential. He also fixed his biggest platoon split problem from 2002 by crushing left-handed pitching this year. I don't know if his RBI total will rebound unless Texas finds a better leadoff man than Mike Young, but barring injury, ARod at least should echo these stats in 2004. Rostering him at anything under $40 is a welcome bargain.

2.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Nomar Garciaparra		658	198	.301	28	105	19	120	S
BOS Red Sox		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	35		25		28		31
2003 Age: 30	5x5:	35		25		28		33

The newlywed Nomar, now Mr. Mia Hamm after last Saturday, compiled another set of impressive stats this season, easily finishing as the second most valuable fantasy shortstop in the league. Acquiring ARod certainly would help Boston, however retaining Nomar is more important to the franchise after the relatively recent departures of past homegrown stars like Wade Boggs, Roger Clemens, and Mo Vaughn. Fortunately, even though Nomar turned 30 this year and still remains a true hacker, his other skills give him significant value. His combination of a .90 contact rate and .73 G-F led directly to his 78 extra-base hits, and while his doubles decreased, his triples and steals both more than doubled from 2002, indicating the return of his formerly impressive speed skills. I also view his extreme home-road split this year as inconclusive since he posted an .884/.876 home/road OPS split only a year ago. Given the numerous positive factors that support continued excellence, Nomar remains an excellent fallback option if ARod's price shoots close to $50.

3.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Angel Berroa		567	163	.287	17	73	21	92	S
KC Royals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	27		19		3		3
2003 Age: 25	5x5:	26		18		3		7

Berroa's mostly stunning season strike me as both a triumph of traditional scouting over sabermetrics and a fine example of the benefits of hitting in a stadium that increased the homer production of right-handed hitters by 20% and their batting average by nearly 10%. Of course, Berroa's 2000 stats hinted at this performance, and his .77 G-F in September of 2002 similarly suggested significant power potential. More importantly, a 3.68 #P/PA demonstrates decent plate discipline, so even though a .05 walk rate limits his value to some extent, his .82 contact rate and 81% SB success rate are skills reinforced by good patience. Still, his atrocious 2002 season, along with the team-wide regression the Royals should suffer, will result in a sophomore slump that limits his 2004 upside, so don't remain in any bidding above the teens.

4.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Derek Jeter		482	156	.324	10	52	11	87	S
NY Yankees		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	25		18		38		34
2003 Age: 29	5x5:	25		17		36		35

Jeter remains so overrated in many circles, particularly inside the sabermetric community, that he continues to look like an excellent bargain in fantasy drafts. He still managed $25 even after missing April with an injury that could have ended the season of some players, and while his noticeable SB decrease is worrisome, he merits a $20+ bid due to his BA and lineup spot alone. If his speed returns as I expect, he easily should push $30. Plus, if Jeter fixed his terrible 2.41 G-F and returns to the power he displayed in 1999 and 2001, he suddenly emerges as one of the most valuable players in roto. New York's likely signing of a speedy, OBP-friendly second basemen to leadoff would boost Jeter's value even more thanks to additional RBI opportunities. Even Yankee-hating roto owners still should target him in almost any draft.

5.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Miguel Tejada		636	177	.278	27	106	10	98	S
OAK Athletics		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	24		17		21		31
2003 Age: 27	5x5:	24		17		21		31

In each of the last two years, Tejada's OPS jumped over 120 points in the second half, and he posted a road OPS of no less than 97 points higher than his home mark. Yet while the Coliseum increased homers for right-handers by 15% over the last two seasons, it also decreased batting average for righties by 7%, so Tejada's improving plate discipline suggests he should return near .300 in a different park. I suspect Tejada will end up in Baltimore, a park that will give him a slight stat boost, however moving to Anaheim, Seattle, or Detroit definitely would depress this power. The good news is that both his contact and walk rates continue to increase, and if he really only will turn 28 next May, he should rank among baseball's best players for the next several years, earning no less than $25 in standard leagues.

6.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Cristian Guzman		534	143	.268	3	53	18	78	S
MIN Twins		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	15		11		18		18
2003 Age: 25	5x5:	16		11		18		16

Guzman lost his leadoff job this year after posting a sub-.340 OBP for the fifth straight season. Although he boosted his stolen base success rate to 67%, contact problems, limited patience, and minimal power potential continue to limit his value to Minnesota. Jason Barltett should replace him after next season, however the Twins' emphasis on defensive value might cause them to retain Guzman, who still could develop into a respectable offensive threat given his relative youth. Unfortunately, nothing in his skill set supports that belief, so treating him as more than a respectable source of steals for a cost in the low double digits makes sense.

7.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jose Valentin		503	119	.237	28	74	8	79	S
CH White Sox		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	10		8		9		14
2003 Age: 33	5x5:	12		8		10		16

With at least 25 homers in each of the last four seasons, Valentin remains the second most consistent power threat at shortstop after only ARod. While the White Sox rarely acknowledge his overall value, instead mistakenly focusing on elevated error totals, Valentin's 3.98 #P/PA and .68 G-F make him incredibly useful to Chicago's offense. Combining Valentin with someone like Tony Batista will destroy your qualitative standing, but a team with a strong BA foundation can benefit from adding Valentin's power. Feel free to snap up Valentin if you see all the other shortstops approaching $30 or you want a middle infielder with established power credentials.

8.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Carlos Guillen		388	107	.276	7	52	4	63	S/3
SEA Mariners		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	9		7		5		8
2003 Age: 28	5x5:	10		7		7		11

The Mariners' apparent decision to retain Guillen, either as their shortstop or third basemen, looks like a wise move given his skill development. His .13 walk rate and .84 contact rate both rank as career-high marks, and he continues to demonstrate good plate patience and promising power potential. As a healthy Guillen would have pushed $15 or more, the 28-year-old appears positioned to take a notable step forward in performance and value. Considering his upside and very helpful position flexibility, feel free to target Guillen in spring drafts as a primary option at either shortstop or third base.

9.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
David Eckstein		452	114	.252	3	31	16	59	S
ANA Angels		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	9		7		28		17
2003 Age: 28	5x5:	10		7		27		20

While Eckstein could lose his job to the surging Alfredo Amezaga or an off-season acquisition, he appears likely to start in the middle infield for Anaheim. Instead of building on his breakout 2002, his performance effectively cratered, sabotaged in part by a milieu of injuries. At least he experienced no notable skill loss other than seeing his ground-fly ratio jump from 1.26 to 1.61, thereby limiting his power upside, but he maintained decent plate discipline and baserunning ability. If Eckstein manages to stay healthy, I see no reason he can't approach his 2002 stats, but exceeding $20 in bidding on him is a definite mistake.

10.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Mike Bordick		343	94	.274	5	54	3	39	S/3
TOR Blue Jays		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	8		6		1
2003 Age: 38	5x5:	8		6		2

Bordick announced his retirement prior to the end of the season. He concludes his career as one of the most respected defensive infielders of the decade. Although he never progressed offensively as the trinity turned shortstop into a power position, he usually contributed respectable numbers that neither hurt fantasy owners nor big league teams. Registering one last respectable season allowed him to conclude his career on a high note.

11.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Tony Graffanino		250	65	.260	7	23	8	51	S/2/3
CH White Sox		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	7		5		3		R
2003 Age: 31	5x5:	7		5		4		R

Although Chicago should re-sign Graffanino, don't be surprised if he looks for a starting opportunity. Weaker numbers over the past two seasons dimmed the promised he demonstrated by posting an OBP over .360 from 1999 through 2001, however he still possesses good patience, intriguing power potential, and welcome position flexibility. Graffanino remains an excellent middle infield target, especially since he normally costs only a couple bucks while regularly earning several dollars of fantasy value.

12.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Deivi Cruz		548	137	.250	14	65	1	61	S
BAL Orioles		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	6		4		8		1
2003 Age: 30	5x5:	7		5		8		6

Career-best power numbers can't compensate for Cruz's terrible plate discipline. He even might not find another starting job after failing to show significant skill development through his peak seasons. While Cruz offers marginal quantitative upside in the right situation, his questionable contact rate may leave him under the league average BA. He merits little consideration as more than a Dollar Days' MIF.

13.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Chris Woodward		349	91	.261	7	45	1	49	S
TOR Blue Jays		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	5		4		5		11
2003 Age: 27	5x5:	6		4		6		11

Woodward offers Toronto little more than a respectable glove and mild power potential. Despite respectable patience and a career-best .69 G-F, he failed to build on a solid 2002 season, instead ceding his starting job to Mike Bordick for much of the season. With first round picks Russ Adams and Aaron Hill rapidly climbing through the system, Woodward's lack of playing time, especially in favor of a retiring veteran, demonstrates his relative worth to the Jays. While you probably can count on him for double-digit homers next year, Woodward possesses negligible long-term value and doesn't merit more than a couple bucks on draft day.

14.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Rey Ordonez		117	37	.316	3	22	0	14	S
TB Devil Rays		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	4		3		2		R
2003 Age: 32	5x5:	4		3		3		R

Major knee problems, including surgery to repair a torn ligament ruined Ordonez's career year. Yes, after never posting a BA above .260, Ordonez's average wasn't staying over .300. However, his career-best 1.09 G-F, combined with his normally solid contact rate, supported this power development, giving him an excellent chance to earn several bucks of roto value. I don't expect him to echo these averages over a full season, so while he should continue to remain a regular due to his defensive gifts, he belongs on few fantasy teams.

15.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Omar Vizquel		250	61	.244	2	19	8	43	S
CLE Indians		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	4		3		5		13
2003 Age: 36	5x5:	4		3		15		15

Torn cartilage in Vizquel's knee cost him half the season and required two operations to repair, so he may never regain much speed. After a career-year of power production in 2002, his .85 G-F also bounced back to near his career rate of 1.29. If he fully recovers by spring training, we probably can expect a helpful batting average from Vizquel thanks to his consistently excellent contact rate and good plate patience, but expecting much quantitative help is a mistake. Stop bidding if your fellow owners push Vizquel's price into double- digits.

16.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Mark McLemore		309	72	.233	2	37	5	34	S/3
SEA Mariners		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	1		1		11		8
2003 Age: 38	5x5:	2		2		11		5

Advancing age finally decimated McLemore's value this year. His speed skills vanished, and he compensated by attempting to improve his power production at the expense of his plate discipline. The resulting decrease in his contact rate dropped his average to a low for the past decade. While he doesn't appear ready to retire, McLemore offers little to a team, so ignore him barring a surprising rebound in his decaying skills.

17.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Enrique Wilson		135	31	.230	3	15	3	18	S
NY Yankees		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	1		1		-3
2003 Age: 30	5x5:	1		1		-2

The Yankees' primary infield backup no longer possesses notable offensive upside. Declining patience and limited power potential render him useless to fantasy teams despite a moderately intriguing .90 contact rate. Treating Wilson as more than a short-term roster filler looks like a mistake.

18.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Erick Almonte		100	26	.260	1	11	1	17	S
NY Yankees		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	1		1
2003 Age: 25	5x5:	1		1

Please refer to our Post-2003 Prospect Review: New York(A) for my comments on Almonte.

'03 Shortstop Week continues tomorrow, featuring American Leaguers without PDV.

Today's Fantasy Rx: While David Eckstein and Bobby Crosby are the top sleepers for 2004, Derek Jeter only needs to stay healthy to finish above $30 again. If you can roster any of the trinity for no more than around $35, or Tejada, Berroa, or Kaz Matsui for no more than around $25, your team will wind up a lot stronger than those that fail to acquire one of the top several AL shortstops.