Today's Fantasy Rx

Click here for discussion of our initial rosters for Diamond Challenge and Internet Challenge. Go here for discussion of our initial roster for Diamond Challenge-2nd Season.

We registered the following finishes in the various CDM Challenge games this season:

Diamond Challenge
Interview with the Umpire(3rd lg; 29th div; 468th overall)
Shadow of the Umpire(5th lg; 28th div; 467th overall)
Dance of the Umpires(4th lg; 19th div; 480th overall)

Diamond Challenge-2nd Season
Umpire The Masquerade(4th lg; 24th div; 220th overall)

Internet Challenge
The Umpire Hunter(6th lg; 121st overall)

To evaluate our effectiveness in roster selection, I will discuss each position to determine if we selected the best players. History suggests that a team of the "best" 28 players easily would win the championship, so I won't worry about reserves in great detail. Along with discussing the top players available, I'll list who we owned, as well as their respective salaries, designating the different leagues as DC(Diamond Challenge), 2S(Diamond Challenge-2nd Season), and IC(Internet Challenge). Players marked with a P are those we purchased during the season.

Catcher: Our picks: Toby Hall(460: DC, 2S, IC), Javy Lopez(750: DC-P, 2S-P, IC), Eli Marrero(580: DC, 2S), Mike Lieberthal(650: 2S), Ivan Rodriguez(1070: DC-P), and Jorge Posada(1120: IC).

Lopez's .328 BA, 43, HR, and 109 RBI made him vital to winning rosters. Mike Lieberthal(650), Ben Molina(650), Ramon Hernandez(660), and Jason Varitek(690) each contributed excellent numbers for their respective salaries. Our delay in adding Lopez in DC and 2S probably cost us first place in no less than two leagues, and while IRod and Posada weren't bad choices, they didn't provide as much help as any of the solid options under 700. At this point, I have no idea who to pick for next year's team; all I know is that we can't own Toby Hall, and at least one inexpensive power-hitter should be available here.

First Basemen: Our picks: Aubrey Huff(610: DC, 2S, IC), Erubiel Durazo(520: DC-P, 2S, IC-P), Frank Thomas(920: DC, IC), Josh Phelps(670: DC, IC), Todd Helton(1850: 2S, IC-P), and Carlos Delgado(1420: 2S).

Huff easily ranks among the best buys in the game this year, so owning him on all three teams worked out great. While nobody we owned did terribly, and Helton's BA set him apart from other first basemen, Delgado, Dmitri Young(680), David Ortiz(680), Jeff Bagwell(1620), Derrek Lee(1110), and Thomas all look like decent picks. In an optimal lineup, Huff and Delgado are good starters, and two months of Lee at DH, followed by four months of Young or Ortiz, would have worked great. Huff will remain on our teams next year if his salary stays under 1000, and our other selections will completely depend upon 2004 salaries.

Second Basemen: Our picks: Alfonso Soriano(1460: DC, 2S, IC), Marcus Giles(400: DC-P, 2S-P, IC-P), Luis Castillo(1210: DC, 2S), and Bret Boone(1360: 2S).

Although Soriano was an obvious choice everywhere, he worked out great. Both Giles and Mike Young(590) were solid picks for the second spot, however Boone contributed nearly as much as Soriano. Owning any three of these guys should have worked well. I expect to own Soriano again next year, and if Giles stays below 900, he owns the skills necessary to continue improving if he avoids infield collisions.

Third Basemen: Our picks: Aramis Ramirez(820: DC, 2S, IC), Hank Blalock(335: DC-P, 2S-P, IC), Aaron Boone(1010: DC, IC), Mike Lowell(1190: 2S).

Ramirez may have started terribly, but he wound up leading all third baseman in RBI. Several solid options appear here at all price levels, although Blalock is an automatic pick thanks to his 29 homers. Boone similarly contributes a ton thanks to his 23 steals, and then Bill Mueller(600), Mark Loretta(520), and Morgan Ensberg(410) are great values, making them better players than Rolen, Chavez, or even Lowell. In retrospect, starting Blalock at one spot and first Boone and then Ramirez at the other slot should have maximized our stats. For 2004, Ensberg should be a good buy, Blalock might remain relatively cheap, and Boone could be a bargain after his World Series problems.

Shortstop: Our picks: Nomar Garciaparra(1330: DC, 2S, IC), Orlando Cabrera(1030; DC, 2S, IC), Alex Rodriguez(2010: DC, 2S), Rafael Furcal(970: DC, 2S), and Jose Hernandez(940:DC, IC).

Hernandez stands out as one of our worst picks of the year, suggesting even Coors won't negate the problems of truly awful contact hitters. Our other four shortstops worked out decently well, but only Nomar really belonged on our team. Edgar Renteria(1230) could have contributed needed speed and BA, and while employing him instead of ARod costs us 34 homers, 18 RBI, and 18 R, the savings allows us to upgrade two closers. Angel Berroa(750) also contributed as much as Cabrera, and aside from 38 runs, nearly as much as Furcal. Nomar and Renteria likely will top our list for 2004.

Outfielders with salaries of 1000+: Our picks: Preston Wilson(1220: DC, 2S, IC), Albert Pujols(1750: DC-P, 2S, IC-P), Vlad Guerrero(2010: DC, IC), Lance Berkman(1640: DC, IC), Manny Ramirez(1610: DC, IC), Ichiro Suzuki(1480: DC, IC), Larry Walker(1400: DC, IC), and Gary Sheffield(1380: 2S).

Outfielders with salaries of 990 or less: Our picks: Ken Griffey, Jr.(820: DC, 2S, IC), Austin Kearns(650: DC, 2S, IC), Dave Roberts(620: DC, 2S, IC), Hideki Matsui(750: DC, 2S-P, IC), Vernon Wells(750: DC-P, 2S, IC-P), Carl Crawford(420: DC-P, 2S-P), Carl Everett(850: DC-P, IC-P), Corey Patterson(500; 2S), Richard Hidalgo(960: 2S-P), and Milton Bradley(430: 2S-P).

Realistically, we wound up nearly 400 spots behind our finish in each of the last two seasons because we spent too much money on outfielders that didn't earn their salaries. Vlad, Berkman, Ramirez, Ichiro, and Walker all gave us negligible stats, and neither Griffey nor Kearns really helped.

Pujols, Sheffield, Wilson, and Wells comprised the elite performers here. Crawford, Pierre, and Scott Podsednik(750) contributed 163 steals for only 2250, nearly as much as Vlad cost by himself. Carlos Lee(1160 was a decent buy, Bradley(430) and Melvin Mora(840) each produced solid numbers for the first couple months of the year, and Jose Guillen(430) may have been the most cost-efficient player in the game. Optimally, employing Pujols, Sheffield, Wells, Crawford, Pierre, and Guillen, with Wilson in a DH spot, would have netted us the best results.

Looking towards 2004, Pujols, Wilson, Wells, and Crawford should be fine picks. Before determining our other few outfielders, we'll need to wait until CDM publishes the new salary list in December as we'll see if the salaries of Vlad, Sosa, Chipper, Berkman, Manny, Ichiro, and Juan Gonzalez drop enough to make them interesting to us. Particularly intriguing alternatives include Bradley, Patterson, Kearns, Jason Bay, and Ryan Ludwick.

Starting Pitchers with salaries of 1000+: Our picks: Pedro Martinez(1700: DC, 2S, IC), Curt Schilling(1610: DC, 2S, IC), Matt Morris(1300: DC, 2S, IC), Roy Oswalt(1280: DC, 2S, IC), Kevin Millwood(1010: DC, 2S, IC), Randy Johnson(2010: DC, 2S-P, IC), Mike Mussina(1210: DC-P, 2S, IC-P), Tim Hudson(1340: DC-P, 2S), and Mark Mulder(1080: 2S).

Starting Pitchers with salaries of 990 or less: Our picks: Kerry Wood(990: DC, 2S, IC), Roy Halladay(890: DC, 2S, IC), Jason Schmidt(790: DC, 2S, IC), Mark Prior(750: DC, 2S, IC), Kevin Brown(990: DC-P, 2S, IC-P), Wade Miller(990: DC, IC), Josh Beckett(700: DC, IC), Tim Wakefield(900: DC), Kurt Ainsworth(430: IC), and Esteban Loaiza(680: 2S-P).

Our historical strategy of selecting established elite starters, specifically expensive starters, completely flopped this season. The only pitchers overly worth owning with salaries over 1100 were Mussina, Hudson, Mulder and Pedro. If we had just stayed with Kerry, Halladay, Schmidt, Prior, and Brown all season, we would have posted far better numbers, particularly if we'd added Loaiza early.

The top Cy Young choices in each league, Halladay, Loaiza, Pedro, Hudson, Schmidt and Prior, also would have worked great as a starting staff for far less on average than what we paid to our group. Rostering Kerry for his MLB-leading strikeout total seems a good idea, and then Brandon Webb(750), Dontrelle Willis(750), and Woody Williams(850) all posted extremely good numbers for much of the year.

Ideally, we hope to avoid purchasing any pitcher next season with a salary much over 1100. Pedro, Halladay, and Wood all appear necessary, but we hope Schmidt, Prior, Webb, and Brett Myers all will remain relatively cheap. We also plan to target more youngsters next year as that strategy worked for us in the past with pitchers like Prior and Brian Lawrence.

Relief Pitchers: Our picks: Matt Mantei(700: DC, 2S, IC), Eric Gagne(1430: DC-P, 2S, IC-P), Tim Worrell(740): DC-P, 2S, IC-P), Joe Borowski(750: DC-P, 2S-P, IC-P), Scott Williamson(960: DC, IC), Matt Anderson(700: DC, IC), Jesus Colome(400: DC, IC), Mike MacDougal(750: DC-P, IC-P), and Rocky Biddle(750: 2S).

Thanks to selections that appear moronic in retrospect, specifically Anderson and Colome, we needed to spend early buys for saves on Worrell and MacDougal, two players who then fizzled to a great extent down the stretch. We never should have ignored Keith Foulke(1280) just because he cost 280 more than Williamson as we fully expected him to dominate. Owning Foulke alone would have bumped us upward by no less than 100 spots in the overall ranking. The best guys to own here were Gagne, Smoltz(1600), Wagner(1290), and Foulke, and we'll give all four serious consideration next year. Closers like Jason Isringhausen, Rod Beck, and Tom Gordon also will earn consideration depending on their salaries and locations.

Now, the good news here is that we improved from 355th to 220th in Second Season, but in the yearlong contests, our delays in adding Javy Lopez, Marcus Giles, Carl Crawford, and Eric Gagne in particular kept us from breaking even, forget about earning a profit. Owning those four players alone would have assured much higher finishes in every category.

In 2002, we led DC for much of the year because we successfully grabbed players like Gagne in early April, and then we almost fell out of the top 100 because we waited too long to grab a couple guys like Nomar. This season we suffered because we waited on several players. Spending early roster spots on players who likely wouldn't remain on our roster indefinitely, such as Wakefield and a couple closers on bad teams, led us to hold onto our remaining moves for too long. Next year other than spending more initially on closers and less on starting pitchers, we're going to compensate for these problems by not pre-planning any moves, as we've gained little from that strategy in either of the past two seasons.

Today's Fantasy Rx: The utter dominance of Eric Gagne, John Smoltz, Billy Wagner, and Keith Foulke this season makes gambling on all cheaper closers a very risky strategy. Unless at least one of next year's listed SP opens the year at closer, we plan on owning at least two of these studs from Day One. Targeting a few skilled pitchers who should cost relatively little, such as Brandon Webb and Brett Myers, should give us the salary flexibility to allocate more cap room to relievers.