Today's Fantasy Rx

Prior to this season, we presented three prospects lists for each league: a Top 150 prospects list for Ultra leagues, a Top 42 prospects list meant for traditional roto leagues with three-round minor league drafts, and a new Top 25 prospects list, intended exclusively for owners in extremely deep leagues who desire the best prospect trade bait.

With a month of player evaluations now in our archive, we decided to present initial 2004 prospect lists for each league. We plan to update the lists every few weeks as players change teams, but these lists should give you some names to target in off-season trade talks.

As always, Rotohelp prospect lists remain specifically geared towards fantasy baseball, foregoing serious consideration of "peak" or "long-term potential" other than what a player will contribute in standard 4x4 and 5x5 leagues.

I projected four values for each prospect discussed over the last month: his likely value in 2004, his 2004 roto upside, his likely 2005 value, and his likely long-term upside considering the prospect's tools, skills, and age. After averaging these values, weighted heavily towards potential 2004 considerations as well as adjusting the relative value of pitchers downward due to the greater volatility in projecting pitcher development, we arrived at a rough ranking of the prospects in each league.

A few players on the first list will be minor league veterans who only need a chance to succeed in the majors. I designated these players with an asterisk for those of you only interested in acquiring more traditional prospects.

Every player remains listed with the MLB organization for which he last played in 2003.

Note: We employed MLB rookie guidelines, so no one here has exceeded 130 MLB AB or 50 MLB IP, or has accumulated 45 days on an MLB roster prior to September 1st of any season.

* - denotes players not on a 40-man roster nor considered a prospect due to age

Rotohelp's Top 150 NL Ultra Fantasy Prospects for 2004
1. Jason Bay, OF, PIT
2. Terrmel Sledge, OF, MON
3. Jason Lane, OF, HOU
4. Chad Tracy, 3B, ARI
5. Garrett Atkins, 3B, COL
6. Freddy Sanchez, 3B, PIT
7. Adam LaRoche, 1B, ATL
8. Edwin Jackson, SP, LA
9. J.J. Davis, OF, PIT
10. Rene Reyes, OF, COL
11. Abraham Nunez, OF, FLO
12. Wilson Valdez, SS, FLO
13. Khalil Greene, SS, SD
14. Ryan Madson, SP, PHI
15. Chin-Feng Chen, OF, LA
16. Tim Hummel, 3B, CIN
17. Chad Cordero, RP, MON
18. Chris Capuano, SP, ARI
19. Dave Kelton, OF, CHC
20. Freddy Guzman, OF, SD
21. Kevin Correia, SP, SF
22. Ryan Wagner, RP, CIN
23. John Gall, 1B, STL
24. Todd Linden, OF, SF
25. Koyie Hill, C, LA
26. Rich Thompson, OF, PIT
27. Billy Martin, 1B, ARI
28. Edgar Gonzalez, SP, ARI
29. J.J. Hardy, SS, MIL
30. Chris Burke, 2B, HOU
31. Cody Ransom, SS, SF
32. Mike Hessman, OF, ATL
33. Jayson Nix, 2B, COL
34. David Wright, 3B, NYM
35. Prentice Redman, OF, NYM
36. Jose Castillo, 2B, PIT
37. Scott Hairston, 2B, ARI
38. Dave Krynzel, OF, MIL
39. Jesus Medrano, 2B, FLO
40. J.R. House, C, PIT
41. Brendan Harris, 3B, CHC
42. Scott Hodges, 3B, MON
43. Craig Ansman, C, ARI
44. Travis Chapman, 3B, PHI
45. J.D. Closser, C, COL
46. Steve Smitherman, OF, CIN
47. Tagg Bozied, 1B, SD
48. Victor Diaz, 2B, NYM
49. Luis Terrero, OF, ARI
50. Corey Hart, 3B, MIL
51. Luis Martinez, SP, MIL
52. Jeremy Griffiths, SP, NYM
53. Geoff Geary, RP, PHI
54. Orber Moreno, RP, NYM
55. Steve Colyer, RP, LA
56. Adam Wainwright, SP, ATL
57. John Van Benschoten, SP, PIT
58. Wilson Betemit, 3B, ATL
59. Henri Stanley, OF, HOU
60. Matt Treanor, C, FLO
61. Franklin Gutierrez, OF, LA
62. Duanr Sanchez, RP, PIT
63. Jason Wood, 3B, FLO
64. Brad Hawpe, OF, COL
65. Jon Knott, OF, SD
66. Wilkin Ruan, OF, LA
67. Andy Pratt, SP, ATL
68. Greg Miller, SP, MIL
69. Jason DuBois, OF, CHC
70. Cory Sullivan, OF, COL
71. Danny Garcia, 2B, NYM
72. Clint Barmes, SS, COL
73. Josh Willingham, C, FLO
74. Val Pascucci, OF, MON
75. Jorge Piedra, OF, COL
76. Joe Thurston, 2B, LA
77. Matt Watson, OF, NYM
78. Bernie Castro, 2B, SD
79. Andy Machado, SS, PHI
80. James Loney, 1B, LA
81. Rickie Weeks, 2B, MIL
82. Joel Hanrahan, SP, LA
83. Brandon Claussen, SP, CIN
84. Sergio Mitre, SP, CHC
85. Sean Burnett, SP, SD
86. Noah Lowry, SP, SF
87. Noah Hall, OF, MON*
88. Kit Pellow, C, COL
89. Doug Devore, OF, ARI
90. Prince Fielder, 1B, MIL
91. Andy Marte, 3B, ATL
92. Dustin Moseley, SP, CIN
93. Rhett Parrott, SP, STL
94. Taylor Buchholz, SP, PHI
95. Greg Bruso, SP, MIL
96. Chris Oxspring, SP, SD
97. Josh Hancock, SP, PHI
98. Matt Guerrier, SP, PIT
99. Mike Nannini, SP, CHC
100. Brian Bruney, RP, ARI
101. Tyler Yates, RP, NYM
102. Jimmy Journell, RP, STL
103. Matt J. Miller, RP, COL
104. David Maust, RP, MON
105. Jason Frasor, RP, LA
106. Jason Ellison, OF, SF
107. Mike Jacobs, C, NYM
108. Tony Alvarez, OF, PIT
109. John Buck, C, HOU
110. Choo Freeman, OF, COL
111. Victor Hall, OF, ARI
112. Matt Holliday, OF, COL
113. Kevin Hooper, 2B, FLO
114. Colin Porter, OF, HOU
115. Derek Wathan, 1B, FLO
116. Edwin Encarnacion, 3B, CIN
117. David Aardsma, RP, SF
118. Justin Germano, SP, SD
119. Jeremy Hermida, OF, FLO
120. Josh Barfield, 3B, SD
121. Wilton Chavez, SP, CHC
122. Justin Wayne, SP, FLO
123. Josh Pearce, SP, STL
124. Dan Giese, RP, PHI
125. Roy Corcoran, RP, MON
126. Tyler Johnson, RP, STL
127. Gavin Floyd, SP, PHI
128. Merkin Valdez, SP, SF
129. Tom Farmer, SP, LA
130. David Mattox, SP, NYM
131. Phil Stockman, SP, ARI
132. Heath Totten, SP, LA
133. Mike Connolly, SP, PIT
134. Doug Sessions, SP, HOU
135. Royce Ring, RP, NYM
136. Lindsey Gulin, SP, LA*
137. John Barnes, OF, PIT*
138. Luke Allen, OF, COL
139. Nic Jackson, OF, CHC
140. Eric Riggs, 3B, LA,
141. Carlos Valderrama, OF, SF
142. Matt Cepicky, OF, MON
143. Ryan Langerhans, OF, ATL
144. Humberto Cota, C, PIT
145. So Taguchi, OF, STL
146. Justin Huber, C, NYM
147. Chris Shelton, C/1B, PIT
148. Seung Song, SP, MON
149. Cory Stewart, SP, PIT
150. Ian Oquendo, SP, PIT

Rotohelp's Top 42 NL Fantasy Prospects for 2004…
who should merit keeping at $10 in 2005 per traditional rules
1. Jason Bay, OF, PIT
2. Jason Lane, OF, HOU
3. Terrmel Sledge, OF, MON
4. Chad Tracy, 3B, ARI
5. Edwin Jackson, SP, LA
6. Ryan Madison, SP, PHI
7. Garrett Atkins, 3B, COL
8. Edgar Gonzalez, SP, ARI
9. Freddy Sanchez, 3B, PIT
10. Adam LaRoche, 1B, ATL
11. Chad Cordero, RP, MON
12. Chris Capuano, SP, ARI
13. Khalil Greene, SS, SD
14. Dave Kelton, OF, CHC
15. Freddy Guzman, OF, PIT
16. Adam Wainwright, SP, ATL
17. John Van Benschoten, SP, PIT
18. Greg Miller, SP, LA
19. J.J. Hardy, SS, MIL
20. Chris Burke, 2B, HOU
21. Wilson Valdez, SS, FLO
22. J.J. Davis, OF, PIT
23. Chin-Feng Chen, OF, LA
24. Kevin Correia, SP, SF
25. Abraham Nunez, OF, FLO
26. Ryan Wagner, SP, CIN
27. Todd Linden, OF, SF
28. Orber Moreno, RP, NYM
29. Jayson Nix, 2B, COL
30. David Wright, 3B, NYM
31. Scott Hairston, 2B, ARI
32. Dave Krynzel, OF, MIL
33. J.D. Closser, C, COL
34. Joel Hanrahan, SP, LA
35. David Aardsma, RP, SF
36. Brendan Harris, 2B, CHC
37. J.R. House, C, PIT
38. Dustin Moseley, SP, CIN
39. Gavin Floyd, SP, PHI
40. Merkin Valdez, SP, SF
41. Seung Song, SP, MON
42. Wilson Betemit, 3B, ATL

Rotohelp's Top 25 2004 NL Fantasy Prospects for Long-term Leagues
1. Freddy Guzman, OF, SD
2. James Loney, 1B, LA
3. Prince Fielder, 1B, MIL
4. Jason Lane, OF, HOU
5. Jayson Nix, 2B, COL
6. David Wright, 3B, NYM
7. Franklin Gutierrez, OF, LA
8. Rickie Weeks, 2B, MIL
9. Andy Marte, 3B, ATL
10. Jeremy Hermida, OF, FLO
11. Josh Barfield, 2B, SD
12. Jason Bay, OF, PIT
13. Chad Tracy, 3B, ARI
14. Edwin Jackson, SP, LA
15. Wilson Valdez, SS, FLO
16. Ryan Madson, SP, PHI
17. Terrmel Sledge, OF, MON
18. Garrett Atkins, 3B, COL
19. Edgar Gonzalez, SP, ARI
20. Ryan Wagner, RP, CIN
21. Adam Wainwright, SP, ATL
22. John Van Benschoten, SP, PIT
23. Greg Miller, SP, LA
24. Gavin Floyd, SP, PHI
25. Merkin Valdez, SP, SF

Today's Fantasy Rx: The 2004 National League rookies who currently possess the best chances to earn double-digit roto value next season are Terrmel Sledge, Jason Bay, and Edwin Jackson. For owners building for the long-term future in leagues that allow you to keep players essentially forever, the best long-term fantasy prospects in the National League are Freddy Guzman, James Loney, and Prince Fielder.