Today's Fantasy Rx

To begin our analysis, here are a couple tables that we'll use to analyze this season's pitching statistical trends:

AL	K/9	BB/9	H/9	HR/9	G-F
2000	6.3	3.7	9.7	1.2	1.22
2001	6.4	3.2	8.8	1.1	1.20
2002	6.3	3.3	9.2	1.1	1.16
2003	6.1	3.2	9.3	1.1	1.18

NL	K/9	BB/9	H/9	HR/9	G-F
2000	6.7	3.8	9.2	1.2	1.23
2001	7.0	3.3	9.0	1.2	1.21
2002	6.8	3.5	8.8	1.0	1.26
2003	6.5	3.4	9.0	1.1	1.29

AL	IP	W	S	K	ERA	WHIP
2000	20141	1143	551	14033	4.91	1.49
2001	20213	1138	589	14474	4.47	1.33
2002	20160	1129	558	14020	4.46	1.38
2003	20219	1123	538	13735	4.53	1.39

NL	IP	W	S	K	ERA	WHIP
2000	23103	1285	627	17323	4.63	1.45
2001	23074	1290	621	17930	4.36	1.37
2002	23098	1296	666	17374	4.11	1.37
2003	23105	1306	661	17066	4.27	1.38

Earned Run Average

Forty American Leaguers qualified for the ERA title this year. The Tigers' Jeremy Bonderman qualified with the least number of innings at 162 IP. Pedro won his fifth ERA title by compiling a 2.22 mark, a significantly more impressive achievement than managed by Tim Hudson(2.70) or Esteban Loaiza(2.90); only half as many pitchers finished under 3.00 than in 2002. Cory Lidle finished last in the league with a 5.75 ERA, a mark only slightly worse than those of Mike Maroth(5.75) or Bonderman(5.75). Twenty-eight AL arms, or 70% of qualified starters, finished with an ERA better than the 4.53 league average. With 29 of 39 pitchers bettering the average in 2002 and 28 of 35 exceeding the league norm in 2001, 10% fewer qualified starters finished with an ERA below the AL average than accomplished that feat only two seasons ago. In the following table I've listed the ERA breakdown for the AL over the last three years, along with defining the best, average, and worst ERA in each year.

Today's Fantasy Rx: My predictions for today's games(all times CDT):

12:00 on ESPN: New York Yankees@Minnesota
12:00 on ESPN2: San Francisco@Florida
3:05 on Fox: Atlanta@Chicago Cubs
6:35 on ESPN2: Oakland@Boston

As in past seasons, our predictions of which team will win each series differ from which team we hope will win. Obviously we're rooting for the Cubs even though only Kerry, Prior, Zambrano, Cruz, and Farnsworth developed in the Cubs' system. The lack of Corey Patterson and Hee Seop Choi on this team is disappointing, but as the Cubs can clinch today, hopefully they will.

If the Cubs can't represent the NL in the World Series, hopefully the Giants will. Both Atlanta and San Francisco have won titles in the last decade while neither Chicago nor San Francisco have won in decades. The only positive outcome from a Florida win should involve the Marlins finally conning Miami into a new ballpark.

Rooting for Boston is easy since the Red Sox possess as disappointing a history as the Cubs and we predicted they'd win it all back in March. Oakland is a slightly better choice than Minnesota as they respectively last won titles in 1989 and 1991. Of course, no one should root for the Yankees other than current or transplanted New Yorkers and anyone related to someone on the team.