Today's Fantasy Rx

Today concludes my examination of the effectiveness of our pre-season predictions by reviewing several pitching recommendations. While I'm still working on specific value analysis, I can provide overview commentary on some general forecasts.

American League

Best AL Wins/Ks Sleepers likely to exceed their Draft Value: Johan Santana, Rafael Soriano, and Colby Lewis. I'll take scoring two-out-of-three here given that Santana and Soriano absolutely dominated throughout the second half. Lewis' poor start and abhorrent pitching most of the season likely led most owners to drop him early, so at least you hopefully didn't incur much damage from him. Gil Meche and Darrell May look like superior picks now, however neither owned a particularly strong skill history, so missing on these unlikely success stories doesn't bother me as much as overhyping an unproven Texas starter.

Best all-around starting pitcher sleepers: Mark Mulder, Jeff Weaver, Sidney Ponson, Joe Kennedy, and Esteban Loaiza. I doubt Loaiza cost even half the $8-9 bid I recommended for him in any league, and while Ponson stumbled a little down the stretch, he ranked among the top starters in the league through four months of the year. Even Mulder similarly seemed on his way to a Cy Young before his injury, so while I badly missed on Weaver and Kennedy, nailing perhaps the three best AL starters in the first half certainly looks good in retrospect.

Best AL Saves Sleepers: Franklyn German, Chad Fox, Cliff Politte, and Juan Acevedo. As all four of these relievers spent at least a couple weeks closing, hopefully you'll forgive the spectacular flameouts each experienced. Francisco Cordero, Tom Gordon, and Aquilino Lopez all look like better picks now, although only Eddie Guardado and Troy Percival remained healthy and held unquestioned closing jobs all season. Half the AL teams might change closers again this off-season, so saves will remain extremely difficult to forecast in 2004.

AL Relievers most likely to exceed 10 vultured Wins: Arthur Rhodes, Francisco Rodriguez, and Ramiro Mendoza. LaTroy Hawkins and Keith Foulke each won 9 games to lead AL relievers. KRod at least tied Ricardo Rincon at 8 wins, but Rhodes and Mendoza only managed 3 wins each during very poor seasons for both relievers. Chad Bradford combined with Foulke and Rincon to win a total of 24 games out of the A's bullpen, so despite Oakland's unimpressive offense, they look like a great target for wins next year due to the likelihood they'll continue participating in a high number of close contests.

First tier of non-closing relievers with consistently excellent skills: Arthur Rhodes and Buddy Groom. Neither of these pitchers helped roto teams as LaTroy Hawkins emerged as the premiere AL middle reliever. Scot Shields and Travis Harper received relatively little publicity despite compiling excellent skill ratios and respectable roto stats.

Second tier of non-closing relievers with consistently excellent skills: Alan Embree, Chad Bradford, Ricardo Rincon, Cliff Politte, and Steve Karsay. Only Embree maintain great all-around skills from this group, but the wins of Bradford and Rincon and Politte's saves gave the first four pitchers solid roto value. Karsay never took the field due to injury, however he historically owns solid skills and will contribute to fantasy teams whenever he stays healthy.

National League

Best NL Wins/Ks Sleepers likely to exceed their draft value: Juan Cruz, Brandon Duckworth, and Jesse Foppert. These predictions look quite poor now even though Duckworth and Foppert battled injuries most of the year. While Foppert managed to contribute 8 wins and 101 strikeouts, neither Cruz nor Duckworth could hold a rotation spot for long. The best sleeper relievers here probably were Tim Redding and Jae Seo; most of the top NL sleeper pitchers emerged out of nearly complete obscurity during April and May.

Best all-around starting pitcher sleepers: Jason Schmidt, Damian Moss, Orlando Hernandez, Mark Redman, and Ben Sheets. This quintet looks suspiciously similar to my AL picks as Schmidt finished among the league's two best pitchers, Redman posted great numbers when healthy, and Sheets continued maturing. Unfortunately Moss struggled even before the trade and El Duque never took the field thanks to injury. Ignoring the completely unexpected and stunning emergence of Dontrelle Willis and Brandon Webb, Livan Hernandez, Carlos Zambrano, Carl Pavano, and Miguel Batista each experienced extremely impressive seasons and belong in this category retroactively.

Best NL Saves Sleepers: Mike Koplove, Kyle Farnsworth, and Britt Reames. Farnsworth posted great numbers but lost the Chicago closer job to Joe Borowski, Koplove's injury allowed Jose Valverde to step into Mantei's role at times, and Reames barely saw any time in the majors. Tim Worrell, Rocky Biddle, Rod Beck, and Borowski head a long list of skilled middle relievers that took advantage of their respective opportunities this year. Danny Kolb also matched Beck's numbers without nearly as much fanfare.

NL Relievers most likely to exceed 10 vultured Wins: Felix Rodriguez, Dustin Hermanson, and Carlos Silva. Joe Nathan supplanted FRod to lead the NL with 12 wins in relief, while Luis Ayala and Oscar Villarreal each managed 10 victories. However, FRod tied Rheal Cormier and Stephen Randolph with 8 wins, one back of Chris Reitsma's 9 and one ahead of Cal Eldred and Luis Estrella, who finished with 7 wins each. Eldred assumed the role we expected Hermanson to fill for St. Louis, and Cormier's stunning performance translated into the opportunity to win 5 more games than Silva.

First tier of non-closing relievers with consistently excellent skills: Octavio Dotel and Paul Shuey. Dotel and Shuey both managed excellent seasons despite notable skill failings; Dotel remains a flyball pitcher while Shuey's walk rate jumped in his first full year in the NL. Cormier and Guillermo Mota posted the best all-around skills among NL relievers and unsurprisingly finished the year as the most effective non-closing relievers in the league.

Second tier of non-closing relievers with consistently excellent skills: Ray King, Roberto Hernandez, Paul Quantrill, Mike Remlinger, and Terry Adams. None of these guys posted overly poor numbers, although only Quantrill compiled greatly helpful stats for fantasy owners. However all five relievers remain decent plays through 2005 as long as they remain in relatively pitcher-friendly ballparks.

Top 2003 pitcher sleepers: Jeff Weaver and Ben Sheets. I'm pleased with most of the recommendations listed above, however Weaver's terrible inconsistency condemned him to a horrible season. Even Sheets only managed decent numbers. While anyone sticking to our projections likely would have grabbed Loaiza at a nice bargain, even we skipped him in favor of Mike Timlin for a league in which we punted wins and strikeouts. Sidney Ponson and Mark Redman probably best exemplify the type of pitcher I hoped to highlight in the spring and would have been much better picks than Weaver and Sheets.

Today's Fantasy Rx: My predictions for today's games(all times CDT):

12:00 on ESPN: Minnesota@New York Yankees
3:00 on ESPN: Florida@San Francisco
7:00 on Fox: Chicago Cubs@Atlanta

While none of these games boasts a premiere pitching match-up, Mussina & Santana, Schmidt & Beckett, and Wood & Ortiz provide us with a nice group of starters. If you like strong pitching, Schmidt & Beckett in particular should give you an excellent game since I can't imagine either the Marlins or Giants scoring many runs in PacBell today.