Today's Fantasy Rx

Let's examine the effectiveness of our pre-season hitting predictions. While I'm still working on specific value analysis, I can provide overview commentary on some general forecasts.

American League

Most Likely Breakouts by position:

Catcher: Toby Hall. In a year when a 37-year-old in a platoon experienced the biggest breakout, Toby Hall doesn't look like a bad pick. However Ramon Hernandez's surprising power rebound returns him to elite catcher status as he nearly met or exceeded Jason Varitek's numbers across-the-board.

Corners: Doug Mientkiewicz, Casey Blake, and Hank Blalock. Mientkiewicz posted good numbers, but Blake and Blalock were two of the best bargains in the game at any position. We didn't highlight Bill Mueller since no one expected his power development. Only Joe Crede's first half struggles kept him from approaching 30 HR and 100 RBI, and if he moves up in the lineup next season, he might be the most undervalued 3B target in AL drafts. Mientkiewicz lacked the power of Millar or Teixeira, although his BA boosted a lot of teams. Nick Johnson's annual injury kept him from experiencing a true breakout despite an excellent .288/.426/.478 performance.

Middle infielders: Luis Rivas, Mark Ellis, and Cristian Guzman. Not only did I find players with weak averages here, these three didn't approach the quantitative marks we expected. Mike Young took advantage of everyday at-bats at the top of Texas' lineup to lead AL second basemen with 204 hits, and full-time jobs for former teammates Marlon Anderson and Desi Relaford created the most SB upside outside of Baltimore's two-headed second baseman. On the shortstop side of the bag, Angel Berroa's shocking rookie season will push his value over $20 on his way to a hopeful Rookie of the Year award thanks to the tutelage of new Royals' Hitting Coach Jeff Pentland.

Outfielders and DH: Carlos Lee, Carl Crawford, & Josh Phelps. Crawford's league leading steal total and Lee's 16 steals and third-best RBI total in the league make them excellent selections here. Aubrey Huff, Carlos Beltran, and Milton Bradley also would have been good choices, although no one expected the seasons posted by Jody Gerut, Craig Monroe, Aaron Guiel, Reed Johnson, Eric Byrnes, or Melvin Mora. While Phelps didn't match the production of David Ortiz, both Phelps and Matt LeCroy look like solid picks heading into next season.

Top 3 Batters who could exceed this projection with increased playing time: Frank Catalanotto, Jeremy Giambi, and Greg Colbrunn. Injuries kept Giambi and Colbrunn from even matching our expectations, and Catalanotto didn't exactly excel. American Leaguers who took advantage of extra playing time to post great numbers include nearly everyone in Boston who began the year in a platoon, as well as Relaford, Marlon Anderson, Eric Byrnes, Aaron Guiel, and Jeff DaVanon.

Top 3 "$1" Catchers: Doug Mirabelli, Todd Greene, and A.J. Hinch. Varitek's continuing health kept Mirabelli on the bench, Greene produced decent numbers with a terrible BA, and Hinch simply dragged down teams after joining Detroit. Greg Myers was the only catcher that earned a great profit on a minimal investment, although Brent Mayne, Brook Fordyce, and Sandy Alomar experienced solid stretches, and late-season additions Victor Martinez and Adam Melhuse contributed decent numbers in limited playing time.

National League

Most Likely Breakouts by position:

Catchers: Brian Schneider. While a .230 BA drags down his total value, Schneider managed 9 HR and 46 RBI, acceptable numbers for a frequent starter. Of course, no young catchers posted true breakout seasons as Javy Lopez's career year paced the position. Jason Phillips posted the best numbers of rookies, however he spent most of his time at first base. Schneider, Chad Moeller, and Yorvit Torrealba look acceptable here considering Robby Hammock emerged as a complete surprise to everyone.

Corners: Derrek Lee and Aaron Boone. The willingness of the Torborg Marlins to steal all the time propelled Lee to a great five-category season. Rob Fick pounded the ball for much of the year and Sean Casey rebounded nicely, but Lee possesses the best all-around upside here. While Boone's homer and steal totals dropped by 2 and 9 respectively, he increased his averaged 26 points while increasing his runs produced by 18. Ty Wigginton, Sean Burroughs, and Pedro Feliz also compiled respectable seasons, however the .291/25/60 season of Morgan Ensberg and Wes Helms' 23/67/.261 performance provided the most upside for roto owners.

Middle infielders: Pablo Ozuna and Orlando Cabrera. A Spring Training injury kept Ozuna out of the lineup nearly all year, opening up room for a Ron Belliard rebound in Colorado. Of course, the season of All-Star and MVP contender Marcus Giles overshadowed everyone else at the position, particularly since Jeff Kent's power disappeared despite moving from the NL's best pitchers' park to the second best stadium for batters. Furcal's return to roto prominence wasn't as impressive as Cabrera's numbers in 4x4, however Furcal's 130 runs soundly trounced Cabrera's total of 95 times across the plate. Of course, Cabrera also meshed career-high marks in BA, homers, and runs with his second-best marks in RBI and SB. Edgar Renteria's 100 RBI, Alex Gonzalez's first-half dominance, and Alex Cintron's emergence also ranked among the most surprising performances from NL shortstops.

Outfielders: Albert Pujols, Lance Berkman, and Adam Dunn. Picking Pujols to improve again was an easy decision, but Berkman dragged down many of our teams this year after he failed to post his normally stunning first-half numbers while contact and injury problems limited Dunn's fantasy output. Preston Wilson's league leading RBI total would have made him an excellent pick here, and then both Jose Guillen and Corey Patterson posted excellent first-half marks that appear far more predictable in retrospect than the season of Scott Podsednik.

Top 3 Batters who could exceed this projection with increased playing time: Gabe Kapler, Jason Lane, and Ramon E. Martinez. Injuries kept Kapler and Lane from contributing most of the year, although Martinez posted somewhat decent marks for a middle infielder as an occasional starter despite not developing the power I expected to see. I also didn't foresee Jay Payton reaching 600 at-bats, however players who unexpectedly earned significant playing time include Morgan Ensberg, Jason Phillips, Mark Loretta, and Wil Cordero.

"Cheap" speed that could be drafted inexpensively: Endy Chavez, Marvin Benard, and Tom Goodwin. Goodwin swiped 19 bases as a reserve pick while helped a couple of our teams to first-place finishes in steals, and Chavez grabbed another 18 steals. Injuries kept Benard from contributing this season, however for those owners that Scott Podsednik, Brady Clark and Henry Mateo both reached double-digit steals in limited playing time.

Top 3 "$1" Catchers: Mike Rivera, Gregg Zaun, and Todd Pratt. The health of Mike Lieberthal and unwillingness of Larry Bowa to risk needing an emergency catcher limited Pratt's playing time and roto value. Unfortunately, Mike Rivera barely played and Zaun needed a move to Colorado before he remembered how to hit, quadrupling his homer total and nearly matching his year-long RBI total in only 15 games for the Rockies. Mid-season call-ups Jason Phillips, Dave Ross, and Robby Hammock each posted great totals for essentially free catchers, however Eddie Perez, Vance Wilson, Yorvit Torrealba, and even Mike Matheny turned nice profits on minimal investments.

Top 2003 Batter Sleepers: Carlos Lee and Orlando Cabrera. Hank Blalock and Carl Crawford likely earned more profit than Lee in many leagues, yet he demonstrated solid all-around skill development as he emerged as an elite player for the White Sox. Cabrera also didn't manage stunning stats, yet career years from both players definitely make me pleased with these selections.

Tomorrow I'll explore my pitcher recommendations in a similar format to today's article.

Today's Fantasy Rx: I'm interested in seeing any of your projections that you either nailed or completely missed. Please send me any player stories you wish, and also let me know if you'd mind if I used them in a future column.