Today's Fantasy Rx

While I excerpted much of this introduction and the quotes from last season's Rotosirens article, all the player discussion is brand new.

Tell me, Muse, of the man of many ways,
     who was driven
far journeys, after he had sacked
     Troy's sacred citadel.

As tools' goofs without the necessary baseball skills enter into organizations under the camouflage of glowing scouting reports, every fantasy owner can tell tales of terrible trades in which Yoo-Hoo dreams disappeared. So many players repeatedly tantalize you, forcing you to overpay for them during the season before immediately reverting into rotting pumpkins after the midnight transaction deadline. If we wanted to establish an award for these teases, we'd name it after Larry Walker due to his fascinating combination of five-category MVP talents, Coors Field residence, and annual nagging injuries. When healthy, he ranks at the top of nearly any player list, but like the mandatory discounting of pitchers on draft day due to the higher DL risk, Walker's auction price is probably 20% lower than we'd otherwise expect in most leagues.

In looking over the dramatically inconsistent players this season, the players we've owned obviously jump out at me, although owning over a dozen teams certainly forces us to keep track of nearly every major leaguer. While plenty of players deserve recognition here, I'm limiting discussion to those who at least started great, slumped badly, and then rebounded, or who slumped through the first two months, exploded around the All-Star break, and now aren't helping at the end of the year. Anyone who shows even more dramatic monthly swings is also quite welcome.

You will come first of all to the Sirens,
     who are enchanters
of all mankind and however comes their way;
     and that man
who unsuspecting approaches them,
     and listens to the Sirens
singing, has no prospect of coming home
     and delighting
his wife and little children as they stand
     about him in greeting,
but the Sirens by the melody of their singing
     enchant him.

Carl Crawford emerged as the preeminent stolen base threat in the American League this year with 53 steals heading into the final weekend of the year, a dozen more than Carlos Beltran. The problem is that Crawford's moderately slow start caused some owners in mixed leagues to drop him during the first couple months of the year. His steal total obviously outweighs the downside of his limited power contribution in retrospect, but a monthly breakdown between Crawford and NL SB champ Juan Pierre depicts why mixed leaguers gravitated towards the latter player:

SB% for:	Crawford	Pierre			
April		7/8		8/10
May		5/7		12/17
June		7/7		16/19
July		9/11		15/15
August		17/19		5/11
September	8/11		5/8

As usual steals appear to remain quite unpredictable, and Pierre's trends again reinforces that managerial whim will dramatically affect outcomes in this category. While select established basestealers always will compile a respectable number of steals, the best team environments for steals look like Tampa Bay, Seattle, Kansas City, and New York(A) although all those teams also are blessed with relatively efficient baserunners.

Today's Fantasy Rx: While some basestealers heated up slowly and others' numbers dropped off the table in the second half, most players with historically helpful SB numbers appeared to reach a total consistent with past years by the end of the season. I see less reason every year to give up on slow starters as long as one player on a given team continues to steal regularly. You can't depend on a significant SB contribution when a team like Toronto adopts an across-the-board conservative approach, but even generally slow and sabermetrically-inclined teams like Boston and Oakland each allowed a couple players to reach double-digit SB totals.