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September
19th
2003
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
Rotohelp
2003 AL LPR through 25 Weeks
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Please check here for a complete description of these rankings. We've included the five most recent 2003 QA scores for each starter, along with the 10 most recent QA scores for each reliever, tabulating all data through September 18th.


1
23BCYZ - Pedro Martinez(44503)
3ABCXZ - Roger Clemens(24545)
AX - Esteban Loiaza(35445)

23abcxyz - Arthur Rhodes(5545343443)
2abxy - LaTroy Hawkins(2444425434)
abcxyz - Jason Grimsley(3340534544)
ac - Aaron Fultz(3423325445)
ax - Danys Baez(5255545445)
ay - Scot Shields(2404455422)
Travis Harper(4333341403)


2
3ABCXYZ - Roy Halladay(54555)
3ACY - Mark Mulder(43034)
Abcyz - Byung-Hyun Kim(23423)

3abcxyz - Mariano Rivera(3354454544)
3bcyz - Buddy Groom(4332241054)
abcxyz - Keith Foulke(4354235432)
abcxy - Chad Bradford(4444444432)
bcyz - Ricardo Rincon(4351514255)
abx - Damaso Marte(4334431231)
aby - Francisco Cordero(4544231242)
bcy - Alan Embree(3413553433)


3
ABCXYZ - Tim Hudson(30245)
AX - Mike Mussina(33343)
A - Joel Pineiro(35443)
C - Kevin Appier(44311)
C - John Burkett(33014)
Freddy Garcia(43443)

bcyz - Steve Karsay
bcyz - Bob Wickman
by - Cliff Politte(4334332525)
cz - Ramiro Mendoza(2412035521)


A
Cab - Kelvim Escobar(40454)
X - Ismael Valdes(33444)
Kyle Lohse(53452)
Gil Meche(52245)
Joaquin Benoit(50401)


B
Ycz - Derek Lowe(43352)
YZ - Tim Wakefield(40053)
Y - Mark Buehrle(43503)
Y - Jeff Weaver(13331)
Z - Andy Pettitte(05504)
Bartolo Colon(43443)
Rodrigo Lopez(31303)
Casey Fossum(45210)
Ryan Rupe(32)

Mickey Callaway(4453145332)


C
Z - Chan Ho Park(33300)
Z - Jon Lieber
Cory Lidle(45314)
John Thomson(23350)
Jake Westbrook(42544433)

Zx - Brandon Lyon(4253443343)


X
Y - David Wells(33244)
Jeremi Gonzalez(34323)


Y
cz - Victor Zambrano(34434)


Z
Jon Garland(35053)
Barry Zito(42233)


a
bcxyz - Mike Timlin(5444445542)
bcxyz - Tom Gordon(4444234334)
bcxyz - Kazuhiro Sasaki(4555334543)
bcxz - Jim Mecir(4352444444)
bcxz - Jeff Nelson(315445353)
bcyz - Billy Koch(4523423334)
bcyz - Troy Percival(4534422542)
bxy - Eddie Guardado(4443424402)

bc - Kelly Wunsch(4444303034)
bx - Brendan Donnelly(3335345343)
bx - Brian Shouse(3243344344)
cx - David Riske(4442444424)
xy - Jorge Julio(2355443244)
b - Scott Schoeneweis(4342203544)
x - Aquilino Lopez(4335244435)
x - Jason Shiell(2453442354)
x - B.J. Ryan(5443402044)
x - Mike MacDougal(4343344523)
Chris Spurling(4441443343)
Franklyn German(5305434415)
Mike Neu(4224524322)


b
y - Omar Daal(44033)
y - Brian Anderson(14305)
y - Jeremy Affeldt(24303)
y - Mark Hendrickson(33003)

yz - Ben Weber(3242445333)
yz - Gary Glover(1322331043)
yz - Mike Fetters(43344)
y - Chris Hammond(4254344434)
y - J.C. Romero(4414140330)
y - Al Reyes(35322233)
Julio Mateo(4421430344)
Travis Driskill(2230132434)
Juan Acevedo(4330233322)


c
z - Willis Roberts(0343445523)
z - Al Levine(3423525224)
z - Kris Wilson(3423324353)
z - Danny Patterson
z - Jeff Zimmerman
Tanyon Sturtze(4234453225)
Giovanni Carrara(0342232423)


x
z - Shigetoshi Hasegawa(4524443335)
z - Mike Venafro(2444324333)
Scott Service(5332334344)
Francisco Rodriguez(1355333343)


y
Johan Santana(444 as a starter)
Dave Elder(4401)


z
Jay Powell(2223330244)
Mark Wohlers


AL starters I recommend despite their failure to appear above include Nate Cornejo(34322), Jason Davis(33414), Ryan Franklin(23342), John Lackey(42453), Mike Maroth(24033), Ramon Ortiz(41433), Brad Radke(04432), Jarrod Washburn(42411), and Danny Wright(04043).

Other decent relievers include D.J. Carrasco and Lance Carter.


We modified these ratings slightly since posting our team-by-team LPR scores in January. By reworking the A-Z and a-z ratings, we now can easily identify effective starters rather than looking for truly dominant performers, of which we only found a few pitchers in any of the previous few seasons.

1 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2003.
2 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2002.
3 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2001.


QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score.

Note: Starters must pitch in five games before scoring DOM or DIS ratings; relievers must appear in no less than 10 games before earning DOM/DIS consideration. All pitchers are evaluated as relievers aside from those who both reached 5 starts in a given season and qualified for DOM or DIS ratings.

A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2003 starts
B - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2002 starts
C - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2001 starts

X - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2003 starts
Y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2002 starts
Z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2001 starts

a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2003 relief outings
b - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2002 relief outings
c - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2001 relief outings

x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2003 relief outings
y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2002 relief outings
z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2001 relief outings


We'll continue tomorrow with this week's NL LPR article.


Today's Fantasy Rx: I know we're trolling for low-risk pitchers to add for qualitative protection in our deeper leagues, and given the general lack of skilled pitchers remaining in most free agent pools, we'll let the schedule dictate which teams' relievers we should pursue.

Detroit laps the pack in offensively futility among AL teams, scoring 145 runs fewer then Cleveland for the season. The Indians and Rays are the only other teams currently below 700 runs scored on the year. However Cleveland and Tampa both rank in the top half of the league in offense this month. Anaheim and Baltimore, who respectively rank fourth and fifth worst in the league on the year, are the only teams superior to the Tigers this month.

Aside from two home games against Cleveland next week, Minnesota plays four of their final seven games against Detroit, making any Twins' reliever look like a good bet. Kansas City splits next week between the Tigers and White Sox, and with the latter team owning the fourth worst offense in the league this month, Royals' relievers also look fairly good. Similarly, the Yankees face the White Sox and Orioles while the Red Sox face the Orioles and Rays, so if you can't grab a Twin, any reliever off Kansas City, New York, or Boston should nicely replace any volatile and therefore risky pitcher.


Click here to read the previous article.

Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
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