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August
30th
2003
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
Rotohelp
2003 NL LPR through 22 Weeks
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Please check here for a complete description of these rankings. We've included the five most recent 2003 QA scores for each starter, along with the 10 most recent QA scores for each reliever, tabulating all data through August 28th.


1
23abcxyz - Billy Wagner(5445335455)
2ABCXY - Matt Morris(34545)
2ABX - Woody Williams(45354)
3ABCXZ - Kevin Brown(45545)
ABXY - Mark Prior(41424)
AX - Brandon Webb(33434)
X - Mark Redman(33344)
Shawn Chacon(21424)

2Cabxyz - John Smoltz(5344545555)
2axy - Joe Borowski(3434523544)
3acy - Rheal Cormier(4330414434)
abxy - Eric Gagne(4325555553)
aby - Tim Spooneybarger(5543445223)
aby - Mike Koplove(5512353435)
ax - Trey Hodges(343355434)
Guillermo Mota(5442352435)


2
3ABCXY - Roy Oswalt(34434)
3BCYZ - Randy Johnson(4404)
ABXY - Kevin Millwood(44335)
ABXY - Odalis Perez(25530)

3bcyz - Jason Isringhausen
3bcyz - Robb Nen
bxyz - Steve Reed(2432354434)
cz - Jay Witasick


3
ABCX - Javier Vazquez(44044)
BCYZ - Brian Lawrence(02135)
BCYZ - Greg Maddux(23203)
CXZ - Brad Penny(33553)
BC - Al Leiter(32044)

bcyz - Scott Stewart(5235531425)
cxz - Jeff Fassero(5355235340)
cyz - Jose Mesa(4333232445)
c - Grant Roberts


A
BCXYZ - Curt Schilling(14433)
BXY - Matt Clement(33442)
BXy - Carlos Zambrano(33533)
XYz - Kip Wells(44355)
BX - Jason Schmidt(40444)
XZ - Darren Dreifort(44540)

B - Adam Eaton(40431)
X - Matt Kinney(54524)
X - Livan Hernandez(44443)
X - Brett Myers(33535)
Horacio Ramirez(43344)
Kerry Wood(24413)
Salomon Torres(42215)
Michael Tejera(40104)
B
C - Wade Miller(40343)
Y - John Patterson(02)
Y - A.J. Burnett(4444)
z - Miguel Batista(43532)
Jake Peavy(33234)
Ben Sheets(33412)


C
X - Shane Reynolds(33533)
Z - Brandon Duckworth(33044)
Steve Trachsel(32424)
Pedro Astacio(31020)

Zbxy - Terry Adams(1323353343)
ax - Rocky Biddle(3334335253)
a - Juan Cruz(4535523304)


X
Y - Randy Wolf(34354)
Russ Ortiz(34524)
Kaz Ishii(43333)
Hideo Nomo(32334)
Jeff D'Amico(42333)
Brett Tomko(33104)
Darren Oliver(33333)
Tony Armas, Jr.(31443)


Y
cz - Vincente Padilla(00532)
Orlando Hernandez.


Z
None.


a
bcxyz - Octavio Dotel(4424443445)
bcxyz - Paul Shuey(4342443554)
bcxyz - Paul Quantrill(2342415535)
bcxy - Mark Guthrie(4443014351)
bcxz - Braden Looper(4431353444)
bcyz - Jose Jimenez(5434354325)
bcyz - Antonio Alfonseca(5243532443)
bxyz - Joey Eischen(2333343444)

bcx - Mike Myers(3553443440)
bcz - Scott Strickland(3454243434)
bxy - Tim Worrell(5344443333)
bxy - Ricky Stone(5543441333)
cxz - Kyle Farnsworth(2452544434)
bx - Matt Herges(3345502431)
by - Darren Holmes(0355054442)
by - Armando Almanza(2444435232)
cy - Chad Zerbe(3243244424)
cz - Joe Beimel(5305542344)
cz - Felix Rodriguez(4422302044)

x - Luis Ayala(2344445545)
x - Tom Martin(5455404042)
x - Javier Lopez(4255353345)
x - Leo Estrella(2553334345)
Julian Tavarez(4443345454)
Cal Eldred(3451444213)
T.J. Tucker(4342225552)
Joe Nathan(4432144502)
Kevin Gryboski(0133445433)
Brad Lidge(2355442332)
Jung Bong(4313232444)
Troy Brohawn(3342435241)


b
cz - Danny Graves(53421)
cz - John Riedling(00403)
y - Jonathan Johnson(1)
Carl Pavano(34344)
Zach Day(42032)

cxyz - Roberto Hernandez(3043433320)
cyz - Mike Remlinger(1402553453)
cyz - Mike Williams(3342354422)
cyz - Ray King(0304434234)
cyz - Eddie Oropesa(333434)
cy - Trevor Hoffman
cz - Steve Kline(3205315305)
cz - Mike Lincoln

c - Brian Fuentes(3323242533)
y - Chris Reitsma(4253443)
y - Luis Vizcaino(4054313242)
y - Mike Crudale(2323344531)
y - Hector Mercado(3112)
y - Jayson Durocher(3)
y - Joey Hamilton(1)
y - Dave Coggin
Justin Speier(30334423425)
Carlos Silva(5341350240)
Brian Boehringer(2432342324)
Toby Borland(2424332)
Gene Stechschulte


c
z - Josh Fogg(25304)
Nelson Cruz(31130)

z - Dave Weathers(5333114524)
z - Esteban Yan(2325340424)
z - Jason Christiansen
z - Kevin Walker
Dan Plesac(4044355125)
Scott Eyre(4343043334)
Allen Levrault(2224342443)
Vic Darensbourg(32)
John Franco
Dave Veres(23333)


x
y - Matt Mantei(5255335342)
Kent Mercker(4433242354)
Mike Stanton(3544343403)
Turk Wendell(3344344024)
Tommy Phelps(3324334453)
Scott Service(3433553323)
Matt Ford(3453343323)


y
Mike DeJean(2445233452)
Brandon Puffer(2344322352)
Brandon Villafuerte(5345433411)


z
Paul Wilson(02344)


NL starters I recommend despite their failure to appear above include Kris Benson(04423), Elmer Dessens(24403), Shawn Estes(34433), Tomo Ohka(40442), Jae Seo(52243), and Dontrelle Willis(4305).

Other decent relievers include Oscar Villarreal.


We modified these ratings slightly since posting our team-by-team LPR scores in January. By reworking the A-Z and a-z ratings, we wanted to be able to easily identify effective starters rather than looking for truly dominant performers, of which we only found a few pitchers in any of the previous few seasons.

1 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2003.
2 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2002.
3 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2001.


QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score.

Note: Starters must pitch in five games before scoring DOM or DIS ratings; relievers must appear in no less than 10 games before earning DOM/DIS consideration. All pitchers are evaluated as relievers aside from those who both reached 5 starts in a given season and qualified for DOM or DIS ratings.

A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2003 starts
B - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2002 starts
C - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2001 starts

X - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2003 starts
Y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2002 starts
Z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2001 starts

a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2003 relief outings
b - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2002 relief outings
c - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2001 relief outings

x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2003 relief outings
y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2002 relief outings
z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2001 relief outings


Tomorrow, like every Sunday during the season, we'll post our preview of the coming week's games and our CDM challenge lineups.


Today's Fantasy Rx: John Smoltz remains out for another week, and while he will resume closing once he returns on the 7th, the Braves play three game in New York and two more at home against Pittsburgh prior to his return. At least a couple of these games should produce saves, however with Darren Holmes, Roberto Hernadnez, and Kevin Gryboski all on the DL with Smoltz, the Atlanta pen is quite unsettled.

Recent acquisition Kent Mercker grabbed the first available save, but his 231344 QA log in Atlanta doesn't give me much confidence in his late-inning skills. I also don't view Jason Marquis or Joey Dawley as likely save candidates due to their poor stat lines for the year. Ray King's 10-game QA log of 4534344033 isn't bad, but Will Cunnane's 245344 QA log since his promotion likely makes him the favorite.

Two dark horse candidates also could emerge in prominent late-inning roles over the next week. Trey Hodges, who only returned from the DL two weeks ago yet owns a 3552530 QA log that gives him nearly as much immediate upside as Cunnane, not to mention more credibility from his success with the Braves early in the season. Of course that last performance against the Mets two days ago reduces the likelihood that Bobby Cox will use him in the late innings next week.

Yesterday the Braves claimed Jaret Wright off waivers from San Diego, who posted a 21:7 K:BB in 19 IP over 12 G with 16 H and 0 HR at AAA Portland(PCL) this season. Yet his 8.37 ERA and 2.05 WHIP in 47.1 innings with the Padres, along with a middling current 10-game QA log of 5324344232, indicates that only Mazzone Magic could turn him into a usable reliever. I see no reason to add Wright to your roster at this time, so if you have an open roster spot and need a couple saves, target Mercker first based on opportunity, and then Cunnane, followed by King and Hodges.


Click here to read the previous article.

Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
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