Today's Fantasy Rx

On our last day of discussing September trends, today I'm reviewing pitchers who, over the past three years, saw their ERA increase by at least 1.50 from August to September. We only looked at pitchers who compiled at least a total of 30 IP in both months over the past three years. They also must show an increase in ERA from August to September while registering at least 10 IP in both months in each of the last three years.

Octavio Dotel, RH Reliever, HOU: +3.57 ERA 
Yearly ERA increase between August and September:
2000: 3.31; 2001: 5.56; 2002: 1.53.
00-02	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
August	0/37	44	23/4	62:12	1-0/10	1.43
Sept.	0/35	36	31/3	52:25	3-4/6	5.00

03Aug	0/10	11.2	9/1	11:2	0-0/0	3.86

Dotel's September struggles generally appear a result of tiredness as he dominates for most of the year before seeing only slight skill erosion after August. While his .77 G-F this year is better than his career norm, his flyball tendency leaves him vulnerable to home run and therefore ERA spikes. The reliance upon Dotel and Brad Lidge in Houston's bullpen this season, coupled with Houston's uncertain lead in the division, should lead Jimy Williams to continue using Dotel on a frequent basis. Even though his skills look decent now, history suggests that we will see some erosion in his stats over the next few weeks, so if you still can find someone willing to offer a decent starter or offensive upgrade for Dotel, look to deal him as his value only should head down from this point.

Julian Tavarez, RH Reliever, PIT: +2.33 ERA 
Yearly ERA increase between August and September:
2000: 2.50; 2001: .09; 2002: 3.03.
00-02	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
August	17/17	92.2	104/3	36:39	6-5/0	3.98
Sept.	9/17	55.2	71/5	27:26	2-5/0	6.31

03Aug	0/11	17.2	12/0	9:10	2-0/3	5.09

The major difference between this season and Tavarez's past seasons is that the Pirates haven't forced him to start, a fortunate situation since he barely possesses the skills to see mild success in the bullpen. Unfortunately, Tavarez owned a 2.8 BB/9 prior to August, and his 5.0 walk rate this month definitely decreases his value to Pittsburgh. However a career-best 3.48 G-F limits his downside, and while a horrendous 3.7 K/9 prevents him from emerging as a particularly competent set-up man, holding right-handers to a .224/.263/.298 this season ranks Tavarez with the best righty specialists in the game. Of course, most teams prefer their right-handed relievers possess the ability to pitch effectively against all hitters, but Tavarez only should remain in the majors if his manager understands his LOOGY-like limitations. As Lloyd McClendon's allowed over 100 lefties to face Tavarez this year, look to deal or cut him as soon as possible before his August control problems lead to disastrous qualitative marks in September.

Curt Schilling, RH Starter, ARI: +1.88 ERA 
Yearly ERA increase between August and September:
2000: .76; 2001: 1.21; 2002: 3.41.
00-02	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
August	19/19	144.1	123/14	149:19	10-6/0	2.74
Sept.	15/16	109	110/15	115:18	5-5/0	4.62

03Aug	6/6	43	33/4	57:6	2-2/0	2.51

Not only are Schilling's August skills fairly fantastic, his 55434 QA log over the last five starts also appears quite solid. While Arizona isn't scoring enough runs to allow even their aces to win several games in a row, he faces a soft schedule next month that should include starts against San Diego, Los Angeles, Colorado, and Milwaukee before likely finishing the season in Coors. Although avoiding that last start seems vital, I see no reason for Schilling to slump in the near future. Any difficulties in Colorado should push his September ERA above his August mark as in past years, however I see no reason not to wait for a few weeks since Schilling should continue contributing positively to your team over his next couple of starts.

Jon Garland, RH Starter, CHW: +1.81 ERA 
Yearly ERA increase between August and September:
2000: 1.91; 2001: 2.26; 2002: 1.09.
00-02	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
August	14/14	83.1	86/9	49:34	4-4/0	3.35
Sept.	15/16	83.2	87/8	54:47	4-8/0	5.16

03Aug	5/5	31.1	32/5	17:11	1-3/0	4.31

Garland ranks among the most inconsistent pitchers in the majors as his monthly splits convinced me to recommend you deal him two months ago and then reacquire him last month. Now, after he posted a 17:11 K:BB in both July and August, Garland's qualitative stats seem likely to jump in September as he appears on schedule to face a few of the top offenses in the game, including both the Red Sox and Yankees. A 24215 QA log this month at least indicates he retains the upside as a 23-year-old with a solid minor league track record, but he hasn't compiled the skills since reaching the majors to suggest he'll reach double-digit value any time soon. Wait for another start or two to see if he can build on his success against Texas last Sunday, however I also see no reason to keep him if he begins struggling at any point in September.

Mark Buehrle, LH Starter, NYY: +1.70 ERA 
Yearly ERA increase between August and September:
2000: 1.91; 2001: 2.26; 2002: 1.09.
00-02	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
August	11/24	102.1	82/10	40:22	8-4/0	2.73
Sept.	11/21	89.1	102/14	48:20	7-4/0	4.43

03Aug	5/5	35	32/1	18:6	2-2/0	3.09

While older than teammate Jon Garland, Buehrle doesn't even turn 25 until next March, and September slumps aren't unexpected for youngsters still developing arm strength. Fortunately his 1.5 walk rate in August, coupled with a current 5-start QA log of 23343 suggests we shouldn't see an obvious problem with his qualitative stats in the near future. Yet after a start Friday in Detroit, he should finish the year by facing Boston, Minnesota, Boston, Minnesota, New York, and Kansas City. The Twins only own a league-average offense, but the Royals average 5.2 runs per game, the Yankees average over 5.4 R/G, and the Red Sox average over 7 runs per game. While he misses the Blue Jays and Rangers, we can't expect Buehrle to post overly helpful fantasy stats against three of the top five AL offenses. Although Chicago may give him enough run support to push him to 15 wins for the year, try to leverage Buehrle's decent summer and likely win against Detroit tomorrow into a deal for a replacement starter with less immediate downside and at least one upgrade elsewhere on your team.

Internet Challenge

SP(6)
Randy Johnson: Sat:SF(Jer.Williams)
Pedro Martinez: Sat:NYY(A.Pettitte)
Kevin Millwood: Fri:@NYM(S.Trachsel)
Kevin Brown: Fri:COL(C.Vance)
Jason Schmidt: Sun:@ARI(B.Webb)
Esteban Loaiza: Sun:@DET(N.Cornejo)

No starts: Schilling, Morris, Oswalt, Mussina, K.Wood, Halladay, Prior, and Ainsworth.

Losing a Prior start against Milwaukee hurts, although Millwood, Brown, and Loaiza still give us a few solid starts. We don't mind running Randy and Pedro despite Randy's inconsistency, and hopefully Schmidt will hold his own against Webb.

We'll sit Helton and Preston Wilson as Colorado plays in Dodger Stadium, and we prefer running Orlando Cabrera and Aaron Boone to Toby Hall and Luis Castillo, who will join Helton, Wilson, and Austin Kearns on our bench. Tim Worrell also stays seated as San Francisco heads from Colorado to Arizona.

The Umpire Hunter(9th lg; 211st overall)
Week 22b: August 29-August 31

C	Jorge Posada		1120
C	Javier Lopez		750
1B	Aubrey Huff		610
1B	Erubiel Durazo		520
2B	Alfonso Soriano		1460
2B	Marcus Giles		400
3B	Aramis Ramirez		820
3B	Hank Blalock		500
SS	Alex Rodriguez		2010
SS	Nomar Garciaparra	1330 
OF	Vlad Guerrero		2010
OF	Lance Berkman		1640
OF	Manny Ramirez		1610
OF	Carl Everett		850 
OF	Vernon Wells		750
OF	Hideki Matsui		750
DH	Orlando Cabrera		1030
DH	Aaron Boone		1010

SP	Randy Johnson		2010
SP	Pedro Martinez		1700
SP	Kevin Millwood		1010 
SP	Kevin Brown		990 
SP	Jason Schmidt		790 
SP	Esteban Loaiza		680
RP	Eric Gagne		1430
RP	Mike MacDougal		750 
RP	Joe Borowski		750
RP	Matt Mantei		700

Total Salary for Week 22b: 	29980

Today's Fantasy Rx: The second part of the Brian Giles trade involved San Diego opening an outfield spot by dealing Rondell White to Kansas City. While he provides an immediate upgrade for the Royals' offense, White also offers any AL team with remaining FAAB a great way to improve their outfield offense. White should see a 20% jump in his homer rate and around a 10% jump in his batting average strictly from switching from Qualcomm to Kauffman Stadium. Moving to Kansas City also should improve his overall quantitative marks, and with the waiver wire relatively quiet right now, I doubt we'll see someone with more immediate fantasy upside switch to the American League this year.