Today's Fantasy Rx

Today I'm reviewing pitchers who, over the past three years, saw their ERA drop by at least 1.50 from August to September. We only looked at pitchers who compiled at least a total of 30 IP in both months over the past three years. They also must show a drop in ERA from August to September while registering at least 10 IP in both months in each of the last three years.

Joe Mays, RH Starter, MIN: -2.27 ERA 
Yearly ERA decrease between August and September:
2000: 6.49; 2001: 2.22; 2002: 1.12.
00-02	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
August	13/16	82.2	92/11	52:22	3-10/0	5.34
Sept.	14/14	91	86/7	48:20	6-4/0	3.07

03Aug	2/5	16.1	20/1	6:3	0-1/0	3.86

Mays doesn't deserve a rotation spot right now over the dominating Grant Balfour, but his excellent control since his demotion to the bullpen leaves him with some immediate upside. Yet although a 43 QA log since returning to the rotation isn't bad, I wish Gardenhire would leave Mays in the pen for the rest of the season given the Twins' inconsistent middle relief and Mays' 2.0 BB/9 and 1.0 HR/9 as a reliever. However, Mays' uncertain role means you should wait until he either reestablishes himself as a starter or returns to succeeding in the bullpen before considering him for your team.

Mike Mussina, RH Starter, NYY: -1.78 ERA 
Yearly ERA decrease between August and September:
2000: .45; 2001: 2.10; 2002: 2.63.
00-02	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
August	18/18	122	119/17	114:25	7-8/0	3.84
Sept.	15/15	104.2	76/3	118:21	8-5/0	2.06

03Aug	5/5	39.2	28/3	32:5	3-1/0	2.50

Once the Yankees finish playing Toronto and Boston next week, they'll close the year against Detroit, Tampa, Baltimore, and the White Sox. So while Mussina's stats in August are great, I wouldn't be surprised to see him drop his ERA to around .75 in September as he surges towards a solid finish in the Cy Young voting. His current 5-start QA log of a 41353 suggests serious skill upside if he can improve his consistent over the last month of the season, and as the Yankees still own one of baseball's best offenses, Mussina may finally net that elusive 20th win this September. Definitely look to acquire him in any league where you can obtain him for less than someone like Halladay or Hudson would cost.

Jeff Weaver, RH Swingman, NYY: -1.89 ERA 
Yearly ERA decrease between August and September:
2000: 4.12; 2001: .41; 2002: 1.93.
00-02	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
August	12/17	92.2	103/10	64:19	4-8/2	4.57
Sept.	13/15	97.1	88/9	58:16	8-6/0	2.68

03Aug	4/5	23.1	39/2	14:9	2-1/0	8.87

Weaver can't hold a rotation job under Joe Torre and hasn't established himself as a successful September performer like Mussina, however if he can pitch decently in a couple of appearances, hopefully Torre will let him finish the year as a starter. As the Yankees face a very easy schedule over the last few weeks, Weaver could emerge as a nice late-season addition as he should be available in many shallow leagues since he isn't even in the majors right now. Of course, I fully expect him to return to New York soon, and if the Yankees provide him with decent defense, he owns the necessary supporting skills to see his ERA drop down near 4.00. Look to acquire Weaver if you can stash him on reserve until he regains Torre's trust.

Today's Fantasy Rx: The only obvious roto beneficiary in the Giles trade is Jason Bay, who should begin starting immediately. Given his outstanding skills at AAA and the advantages of hitting in Pittsburgh, I expect him to emerge as Rookie of the Year candidate in 2004. Oliver Perez possesses as much upside as any young lefty in the game, but while he hasn't pitched great at home, pitching half his games in PNC should increase his ERA by around 20%, irrespective of continuing development as he gains experience. Although his flyball tendency isn't overly severe, expect his 1.7 HR/9 to jump slightly in the very near future. While his long-term future is quite promising, he isn't a good choice for most fantasy teams over the balance of this season.

Brian Giles obviously possesses the skills to succeed under nearly any circumstances, and hitting behind Sean Burroughs and Mark Loretta at least will increase his RBI opportunities. However he'll loose a couple home runs a year from playing in San Diego, and another couple home runs long-term thanks to the addition games in Dodger Stadium and PacBell. Playing at Coors doesn't give him much of a boost considering he'll miss extra series in Minute Maid and the GAB. The most obvious drop in his stats should occur in his batting average, where I expect at least a 5% drop, or about 10-15 points over the next two years. Now Petco Park might alleviate some of these statistical problems if it gives the NL West a third hitters' park, but Giles at least will not match offensive expectations over the next few weeks.