Today's Fantasy Rx

I'm going to spend the first four days of this week on players whose September performances generally differ dramatically from their stats in August. To qualify for consideration, a position player must have at least 100 AB in both August and September over the last three years, and show a change, positive or negative, of .050 BA and .100 OPS between the two months. They also must show improvement in both BA and OPS from August to September while registering at least 25 at-bats in both months in each of the last three years.

Today we'll focus on improving hitters, tomorrow will be declining hitters, and then we'll spend the following two days on improving and then declining pitchers.

Torii Hunter, OF, MIN: +.076 BA; +.266 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS increase between August and September:
2000: .019/.072; 2001: .169/.499; 2002: .010/.183.

00-02	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
August	308	18:64	.253/.293/.390
Sept.	228	15:43	.329/.383/.566

03Aug	91	4:13	.198/.237/.407

Hunter continues to suffer through one of the most unimpressive seasons in recent memory for someone only a season removed from serious MVP consideration. His 23 HR and 83 RBI, combined with a career-best 1.30 G-F, demonstrate he still possesses good overall power, however a .240 BA is rather shocking, especially as his .83 contact rate is a welcome improvement over his .79 mark from 2002. A career-high .09 walk rate also gives him a .067 differential between his BA and his OBP, a sign of overall development in his approach at the plate. The only fundamental problem I see in Hunter's skills is that he simply isn't performing in the Metrodome this year. His roto value is roughly halved due to the drop in his BA and a nearly 80% drop in his SB output, yet he should finish strongly and hopefully carry any September surge into 2004. Owners in most leagues, particularly those where Hunter is keepable at a low salary, should attempt to acquire him now before his value begins rising again as his rebound should fuel the Twins' playoff push.

Preston Wilson, OF, COL: +.059 BA; +.247 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS increase between August and September:
2000: .070/.488; 2001: .081/.094; 2002: .008/.020.

00-02	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
August	271	21:85	.240/.299/.395
Sept.	244	16:51	.299/.351/.590

03Aug	83	6:18	.241/.292/.398

While Wilson only posted truly imposing numbers in one of the last three Septembers, he nonetheless appears to improve towards the end of the year. Unfortunately, the Rockies split the rest of the season between Coors and the road instead of any extended time at home like some years, and their road games include trips to the extremely pitcher-friendly confines of Los Angeles, San Francisco, and San Diego. Yet Wilson is fulfilling every optimistic offseason prediction regarding how Coors particularly help strikeout-prone hitters. His power numbers ranks with any hitter in the league, and his solid .292 BA helps obscure his reduced SB output this season. After a 1.40 G-F in 2002, Wilson's 1.04 mark this year combines with a jump in his contact rate from .73 to .77 to give him the skill foundation necessary to maintain this level of production both through the end of 2003 and in future seasons. Although he obviously will cost a great deal in trade, look to acquire Wilson for an offensive boost this season; he even merits keeping in standard leagues at any salary below $35.

Javy Lopez, C, ATL: +.071 BA; +.175 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS increase between August and September:
2000: .057/.105; 2001: .099/.218; 2002: .084/.302.

00-02	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
August	201	11:37	.239/.291/.418
Sept.	174	20:36	.310/.390/.494

03Aug	55	8:14	.327/.431/.600

Rather than continuing his descent into fantasy obscurity, Lopez reportedly showed up in camp in fantastic shape, posted decent stats in April, and then managed at least a 1.030 OPS in May, June, July, and thus far in August. While his season obviously doesn't rank with that of Barry Bonds or even Albert Pujols, Lopez deserves significant consideration in the third tier of MVP voting, and if he improves in September by his normal amount, Lopez should be an easy choice for the third best player in the league. Of course, I'm worried that he won't be able even to maintain his current pace as neither his .08 walk rate nor a .81 contact rate supports his current .326 BA. Yet Lopez also bats in the middle of the league's deepest lineup and owns career-best marks of a 3.55 #P/PA and a 1.07 G-F, which indicate significant skill development from his 3.44 #P/PA and 1.67 G-F in 2002. Look to acquire Lopez for an immediate boost in four categories from a position where most teams don't usually possess such a valuable offensive player.

Today's Fantasy Rx: While neither Chipper Jones nor Rob Fick displayed quite as much consistent late-season improvement in recent years as Javy Lopez, the Braves, with the possible exception of Gary Sheffield, who normally slumps in September, should continue producing prolific offensive numbers indefinitely. I don't see an easy out anywhere in the lineup, and while their weak bench resembles most Braves' squads of the last decade, I don't see a better team in the National League for runs and RBI than Atlanta. Philadelphia and Florida both possess similar lineup depth, however aside from their respective stars like Jim Thome, Bobby Abreu, Ivan Rodriguez, and Mike Lowell, most position players on the Phillies and Marlins lack either the statistical or skill track records of players like Furcal, Giles, and Lopez. However I'd still rather target players on these teams for runs and RBI than those on any other NL squad.