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August
23rd
2003
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
Rotohelp
2003 NL LPR through 21 Weeks
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Please check here for a complete description of these rankings. We've included the five most recent 2003 QA scores for each starter, along with the 10 most recent QA scores for each reliever, tabulating all data through August 21st.


1
23abcxyz - Billy Wagner(5445335455)
2ABCXY - Matt Morris(34545)
2ABX - Woody Williams(45354)
3ABCXZ - Kevin Brown(45545)
ABXY - Mark Prior(41424)
AX - Brandon Webb(33434)
X - Mark Redman(33344)
Shawn Chacon(21424)

2Cabxyz - John Smoltz(5344545555)
2axy - Joe Borowski(3434523544)
3acy - Rheal Cormier(4330414434)
abxy - Eric Gagne(4325555553)
aby - Tim Spooneybarger(5543445223)
aby - Mike Koplove(5512353435)
ax - Trey Hodges(343355434)
Guillermo Mota(5442352435)


2
3ABCXY - Roy Oswalt(34434)
3BCYZ - Randy Johnson(4404)
ABXY - Kevin Millwood(44335)
ABXY - Odalis Perez(25530)

3bcyz - Jason Isringhausen
3bcyz - Robb Nen
bxyz - Steve Reed(2432354434)
cz - Jay Witasick


3
ABCX - Javier Vazquez(44044)
BCYZ - Brian Lawrence(02135)
BCYZ - Greg Maddux(23203)
CXZ - Brad Penny(33553)
BC - Al Leiter(32044)

bcyz - Scott Stewart(5235531425)
cxz - Jeff Fassero(5355235340)
cyz - Jose Mesa(4333232445)
c - Grant Roberts


A
BCXYZ - Curt Schilling(14433)
BXY - Matt Clement(33442)
BXy - Carlos Zambrano(33533)
XYz - Kip Wells(44355)
BX - Jason Schmidt(40444)
XZ - Darren Dreifort(44540)

B - Adam Eaton(40431)
X - Matt Kinney(54524)
X - Livan Hernandez(44443)
X - Brett Myers(33535)
Horacio Ramirez(43344)
Kerry Wood(24413)
Salomon Torres(42215)
Michael Tejera(40104)
B
C - Wade Miller(40343)
Y - John Patterson(02)
Y - A.J. Burnett(4444)
z - Miguel Batista(43532)
Jake Peavy(33234)
Ben Sheets(33412)


C
X - Shane Reynolds(33533)
Z - Brandon Duckworth(33044)
Steve Trachsel(32424)
Pedro Astacio(31020)

Zbxy - Terry Adams(1323353343)
ax - Rocky Biddle(3334335253)
a - Juan Cruz(4535523304)


X
Y - Randy Wolf(34354)
Russ Ortiz(34524)
Kaz Ishii(43333)
Hideo Nomo(32334)
Jeff D'Amico(42333)
Brett Tomko(33104)
Darren Oliver(33333)
Tony Armas, Jr.(31443)


Y
cz - Vincente Padilla(00532)
Orlando Hernandez.


Z
None.


a
bcxyz - Octavio Dotel(4424443445)
bcxyz - Paul Shuey(4342443554)
bcxyz - Paul Quantrill(2342415535)
bcxy - Mark Guthrie(4443014351)
bcxz - Braden Looper(4431353444)
bcyz - Jose Jimenez(5434354325)
bcyz - Antonio Alfonseca(5243532443)
bxyz - Joey Eischen(2333343444)

bcx - Mike Myers(3553443440)
bcz - Scott Strickland(3454243434)
bxy - Tim Worrell(5344443333)
bxy - Ricky Stone(5543441333)
cxz - Kyle Farnsworth(2452544434)
bx - Matt Herges(3345502431)
by - Darren Holmes(0355054442)
by - Armando Almanza(2444435232)
cy - Chad Zerbe(3243244424)
cz - Joe Beimel(5305542344)
cz - Felix Rodriguez(4422302044)

x - Luis Ayala(2344445545)
x - Tom Martin(5455404042)
x - Javier Lopez(4255353345)
x - Leo Estrella(2553334345)
Julian Tavarez(4443345454)
Cal Eldred(3451444213)
T.J. Tucker(4342225552)
Joe Nathan(4432144502)
Kevin Gryboski(0133445433)
Brad Lidge(2355442332)
Jung Bong(4313232444)
Troy Brohawn(3342435241)


b
cz - Danny Graves(53421)
cz - John Riedling(00403)
y - Jonathan Johnson(1)
Carl Pavano(34344)
Zach Day(42032)

cxyz - Roberto Hernandez(3043433320)
cyz - Mike Remlinger(1402553453)
cyz - Mike Williams(3342354422)
cyz - Ray King(0304434234)
cyz - Eddie Oropesa(333434)
cy - Trevor Hoffman
cz - Steve Kline(3205315305)
cz - Mike Lincoln

c - Brian Fuentes(3323242533)
y - Chris Reitsma(4253443)
y - Luis Vizcaino(4054313242)
y - Mike Crudale(2323344531)
y - Hector Mercado(3112)
y - Jayson Durocher(3)
y - Joey Hamilton(1)
y - Dave Coggin
Justin Speier(30334423425)
Carlos Silva(5341350240)
Brian Boehringer(2432342324)
Toby Borland(2424332)
Gene Stechschulte


c
z - Josh Fogg(25304)
Nelson Cruz(31130)

z - Dave Weathers(5333114524)
z - Esteban Yan(2325340424)
z - Jason Christiansen
z - Kevin Walker
Dan Plesac(4044355125)
Scott Eyre(4343043334)
Allen Levrault(2224342443)
Vic Darensbourg(32)
John Franco
Dave Veres(23333)


x
y - Matt Mantei(5255335342)
Kent Mercker(4433242354)
Mike Stanton(3544343403)
Turk Wendell(3344344024)
Tommy Phelps(3324334453)
Scott Service(3433553323)
Matt Ford(3453343323)


y
Mike DeJean(2445233452)
Brandon Puffer(2344322352)
Brandon Villafuerte(5345433411)


z
Paul Wilson(02344)


NL starters I recommend despite their failure to appear above include Kris Benson(04423), Elmer Dessens(24403), Shawn Estes(34433), Tomo Ohka(40442), Jae Seo(52243), and Dontrelle Willis(4305).

Other decent relievers include Oscar Villarreal.


We modified these ratings slightly since posting our team-by-team LPR scores in January. By reworking the A-Z and a-z ratings, we wanted to be able to easily identify effective starters rather than looking for truly dominant performers, of which we only found a few pitchers in any of the previous few seasons.

1 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2003.
2 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2002.
3 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2001.


QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score.

Note: Starters must pitch in five games before scoring DOM or DIS ratings; relievers must appear in no less than 10 games before earning DOM/DIS consideration. All pitchers are evaluated as relievers aside from those who both reached 5 starts in a given season and qualified for DOM or DIS ratings.

A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2003 starts
B - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2002 starts
C - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2001 starts

X - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2003 starts
Y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2002 starts
Z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2001 starts

a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2003 relief outings
b - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2002 relief outings
c - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2001 relief outings

x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2003 relief outings
y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2002 relief outings
z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2001 relief outings


Tomorrow, like every Sunday during the season, we'll post our preview of the coming week's games and our CDM challenge lineups.


Today's Fantasy Rx: As of yesterday, about 40 left-handed pitchers currently own rotation spots on MLB teams. Of those 40 lefty starters, the only pitchers with even a mild chance of changing teams by the end of this month are Brian Anderson and Darren Oliver. Although both pitchers own solid skills, Sterling Hitchcock, dealt yesterday from the Yankees to the Cardinals, may provide the second most fantasy value for NL owners of any crossover pitcher after Sidney Ponson.

Hitchcock posted a 2 QA in his only start this year, however his marks as a reliever, including a 6.8 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, .8 HR/9, and a .89 G-F. The biggest problem is that he continues to display a severe platoon split, allowing an OPS increase of .171 versus right-handers above his .659 OPS against lefties. A smart organization would leave him as a lefty specialist, but St. Louis needs to upgrade their rotation and, particularly in the case of Chuck Finley a year ago, has a solid track record of immediately improving veteran starters. You should be able to roster Hitchcock for only a few bucks of FAAB, so as long as you can reserve or drop him if he continues struggling, I see little reason why most owners in standard NL leagues shouldn't target him at the first available opportunity.


Click here to read the previous article.

Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
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