Today's Fantasy Rx

Please check here for a complete description of these rankings. We've included the five most recent 2003 QA scores for each starter, along with the 10 most recent QA scores for each reliever, tabulating all data through August 6th.

1
23BCYZ - Pedro Martinez(44503)
3ABCXZ - Roger Clemens(24545)
AX - Esteban Loiaza(35445)

23abcxyz - Arthur Rhodes(5545343443)
2abxy - LaTroy Hawkins(2444425434)
abcxyz - Jason Grimsley(3340534544)
ac - Aaron Fultz(3423325445)
ax - Danys Baez(5255545445)
ay - Scot Shields(2404455422)
Travis Harper(4333341403)

2
3ABCXYZ - Roy Halladay(54555)
3ACY - Mark Mulder(43034)
Abcyz - Byung-Hyun Kim(23423)

3abcxyz - Mariano Rivera(3354454544)
3bcyz - Buddy Groom(4332241054)
abcxyz - Keith Foulke(4354235432)
abcxy - Chad Bradford(4444444432)
bcyz - Ricardo Rincon(4351514255)
abx - Damaso Marte(4334431231)
aby - Francisco Cordero(4544231242)
bcy - Alan Embree(3413553433)

3
ABCXYZ - Tim Hudson(30245)
AX - Mike Mussina(33343)
A - Joel Pineiro(35443)
C - Kevin Appier(44311)
C - John Burkett(33014)
Freddy Garcia(43443)

bcyz - Steve Karsay
bcyz - Bob Wickman
by - Cliff Politte(4334332525)
cz - Ramiro Mendoza(2412035521)

A
Cab - Kelvim Escobar(40454)
X - Ismael Valdes(33444)
Adam Bernero(44440)
Kyle Lohse(53452)
Gil Meche(52245)
Joaquin Benoit(50401)

B
Ycz - Derek Lowe(43352)
YZ - Tim Wakefield(40053)
Y - Mark Buehrle(43503)
Y - Jeff Weaver(13331)
Z - Andy Pettitte(05504)
Bartolo Colon(43443)
Rodrigo Lopez(31303)
Casey Fossum(45210)
Ryan Rupe(32)

Mickey Callaway(4453145332)

C
Z - Chan Ho Park(33300)
Z - Jon Lieber
Cory Lidle(45314)
John Thomson(23350)
Jake Westbrook(42544433)

Zx - Brandon Lyon(4253443343)

X
Y - David Wells(33244)
Jeremi Gonzalez(34323)

Y
cz - Victor Zambrano(34434)

Z
Jon Garland(35053)
Barry Zito(42233)

a
bcxyz - Mike Timlin(5444445542)
bcxyz - Tom Gordon(4444234334)
bcxyz - Kazuhiro Sasaki(4555334543)
bcxz - Jim Mecir(4352444444)
bcxz - Jeff Nelson(315445353)
bcyz - Billy Koch(4523423334)
bcyz - Troy Percival(4534422542)
bxy - Eddie Guardado(4443424402)

bc - Kelly Wunsch(4444303034)
bx - Brendan Donnelly(3335345343)
bx - Brian Shouse(3243344344)
cx - David Riske(4442444424)
xy - Jorge Julio(2355443244)
b - Scott Schoeneweis(4342203544)
x - Aquilino Lopez(4335244435)
x - Jason Shiell(2453442354)
x - B.J. Ryan(5443402044)
x - Mike MacDougal(4343344523)
z - Sean Lowe(2453352451)
Chris Spurling(4441443343)
Franklyn German(5305434415)
Mike Neu(4224524322)

b
y - Omar Daal(44033)
y - Brian Anderson(14305)
y - Jeremy Affeldt(24303)
y - Mark Hendrickson(33003)

cyz - Rick White(2020544434)
yz - Ben Weber(3242445333)
yz - Gary Glover(1322331043)
yz - Mike Fetters(43344)
y - Chris Hammond(4254344434)
y - J.C. Romero(4414140330)
y - Al Reyes(35322233)
Julio Mateo(4421430344)
Travis Driskill(2230132434)
Juan Acevedo(4330233322)

c
z - Willis Roberts(0343445523)
z - Al Levine(3423525224)
z - Kris Wilson(3423324353)
z - Rudy Seanez(3325050)
z - Danny Patterson
z - Jeff Zimmerman
Tanyon Sturtze(4234453225)
Giovanni Carrara(0342232423)

x
z - Shigetoshi Hasegawa(4524443335)
z - Mike Venafro(2444324333)
Scott Service(5332334344)
Francisco Rodriguez(1355333343)

y
Johan Santana(444 as a starter)
Dave Elder(4401)

z
Jay Powell(2223330244)
Mark Wohlers

AL starters I recommend despite their failure to appear above include Jeremy Bonderman(40334), Nate Cornejo(34322), Jason Davis(33414), Ryan Franklin(23342), John Lackey(42453), Mike Maroth(24033), Ramon Ortiz(41433), Brad Radke(04432), Kyle Snyder(14153), Jarrod Washburn(42411), and Danny Wright(04043).

Other decent relievers include D.J. Carrasco, Lance Carter, and Jesus Colome.

We modified these ratings slightly since posting our team-by-team LPR scores in January. By reworking the A-Z and a-z ratings, we now can easily identify effective starters rather than looking for truly dominant performers, of which we only found a few pitchers in any of the previous few seasons.

1 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2003.
2 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2002.
3 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2001.

QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score.

Note: Starters must pitch in five games before scoring DOM or DIS ratings; relievers must appear in no less than 10 games before earning DOM/DIS consideration. All pitchers are evaluated as relievers aside from those who both reached 5 starts in a given season and qualified for DOM or DIS ratings.

A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2003 starts
B - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2002 starts
C - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2001 starts

X - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2003 starts
Y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2002 starts
Z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2001 starts

a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2003 relief outings
b - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2002 relief outings
c - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2001 relief outings

x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2003 relief outings
y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2002 relief outings
z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2001 relief outings

We'll continue tomorrow with this week's NL LPR article.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Cleveland possesses the deepest farm system of any team, and the first wave of prospects should develop into $10-20 fantasy values during their sophomore seasons in 2004. While Victor Martinez, Ben Broussard, Casey Blake, Jody Gerut, Coco Crisp, Ryan Ludwick, and Travis Hafner all already look like solid keepers due to their consistently promising track records, we're beginning to see the top Indians' pitchers establish themselves.

C.C. Sabathia, assuming he avoids a likely injury thanks to significant overwork thus far in his career, will remain the team ace, and a current 5-start QA log of 44233 at least indicates an ability to post consistently decent outings, as well as occasional dominant ones. Although his strikeout rate crashed below 6.0 this year, a 3.0 walk rate demonstrates his improvement as a pitcher.

Jason Davis' early struggles suggest he needed the additional minor league time we recommend prior to the season, however a 45131 QA log against the Yankees, White Sox, Twins, and Texas supports his post-April numbers of a 5-5 record and a 4.32 ERA on a 60:28 K:BB in 106.1 IP over 17 GS with 106 H and 20 HR. A 1.39 G-F definitely worries me given this homer rate, yet I see enough upside to warrant keeping him anywhere below a salary in the higher single digits.

Billy Traber looked like the Indians' most prepared prospect for the majors here in the off-season, however leaving him in the bullpen for half the season prevented the accumulation of a high workload. As a starter, he owns a 4.62 ERA on a 51:21 K:BB in 64.1 IP over 12 G with 70 H and 7 HR. His 42505 five-start QA log demonstrates his obvious upside, and if you're going to keep any youngster here aside from Sabathia at $10 or more, Traber is the best option.

Jason Westbrook might be the elder statesmen on next year's staff as he turns 26 at the end of September, although he really doesn't merit a starting spot in 2004 given his 30:36 K:BB in 73.2 IP over 14 GS with 79 H and 7 HR. His 1.84 ERA on a 7:2 K:BB in 14.2 IP over 12 games out of the bullpen suggests he should remain in the bullpen, and I don't envision him as a keeper in almost any league.

If Cliff Lee performs as we expect over the balance of the season, he'll look like one of the top 3 keepers on this team. The last rotation spot should be filled either by a veteran to provide IP relief, however Cleveland owns another dozen decent youngsters, all of whom deserve a chance to prove themselves. While Traber and Lee are the safest short and long-term bets here, I expect at least one more youngster to establish himself as a solid starting option by a year from now.