Today's Fantasy Rx

Note: For those of you unfamiliar with FAAB, each team normally begins with $100 to spend throughout the year on all free agent pickups. Most injury replacements or speculative picks go for a buck or two, hot starters go for $5-$10, top prospects go in the $10-$30 range, and we've seen $90+ bids on top players traded into the league.

Arizona: John Patterson, 25, RH Starter
1-4 on a 30:24 K:BB in 41.2 IP over 8 GS
with 48 H, 6 HR, a .84 G-F, and a 6.91 ERA in Arizona.
7-4 on a 51:30 K:BB in 76.1 IP over 13 GS
with 70 H, 6 HR, and a 2.83 ERA at AAA Tucson(PCL).

The combination of Patterson's experience and recent AAA performance, particularly when compared to Andrew Good's 1.9 HR/9 at Tucson, should give him an edge over Good and Edgar Gonzalez if Arizona needs another starter this year. Patterson's aborted Rookie of the Year run and poor stats with the Diamondbacks this year should remove him from consideration in many leagues, yet he still owns an impressive recent track record and only appears to need to conquer his control problems to succeed in the majors. Contenders probably should avoid him, but anyone looking towards next year should consider spending a small amount of FAAB on Patterson in September as we at least expect him to return as a long reliever with a good chance to compete for a rotation spot in the spring.

Previously discussed 2003 NL pitching prospects: May: Jose Valverde; June: Chris Capuano; July: Brian Bruney.

Atlanta: Will Cunnane, 29, RH Reliever
1-0 and 2 Saves on a 19:2 K:BB in 21 IP over 15 G
with 11 H, 0 HR, and a 0.00 ERA for AAA Richmond(IL).
0-1 on a 16:8 K:BB in 16.1 IP over 12 G
with 17 H, 0 HR, and a 2.20 ERA for AAA Iowa(PCL).

While we don't completely fault the Cubs for dumping Cunnane earlier this season after he broke his pitching hand by punching a wall following a poor outing, he still owns great skills and should succeed with the Braves. His poor 5.47 ERA with the Cubs last year was a product of an unexpectedly high homer rate, and as he owns a solid 1.56 career G-F, I see no reason to suspect he won't post solid numbers once given another opportunity. Cunnane's outstanding 9.5 K:BB for Richmond demonstrates his skill upside. Look to FAAB Cunnane this week as he now owns the best skills of any Braves' middle reliever since they just promoted him to replace the injured Darren Holmes.

Previously discussed 2003 NL pitching prospects: May: Travis Phelps; June: Andy Pratt; July: Jason Marquis.

Chicago Cubs: Phil Norton, 27, LH Reliever
0-0 on a 0:3 K:BB in 3.1 IP over 4 G
with 2 H, 0 HR, a 5-2 G-F, and a 5.40 ERA for Chicago(N).
4-2 and 1 Save on a 43:24 K:BB in 47.2 IP over 1 GS(48G)
with 44 H, 4 HR, and a 3.78 ERA for AAA Iowa(PCL).

Any injury to Mike Remlinger or Mark Guthrie should result in Norton's promotion, and after a couple years of injury problems, he now owns the skills necessary to succeed in the majors. Unfortunately a 4.5 BB/9 suggests he will suffer from WHIP problems, and the Cubs' lack of offense won't give him many opportunities to accumulate quantitative stats. Ignore Norton as while he isn't poor roster filler, he won't post the stats necessary to contribute to fantasy teams this year.

Previously discussed 2003 NL pitching prospects: May: Rod Beck; June: Wilton Chavez; July: Matt Bruback.

Cincinnati: Seth Etherton, 26, RH Starter
7-7 on a 69:26 K:BB in 123.1 IP over 21 GS
with 144 H, 11 HR, and a 4.31 ERA for AAA Louisville(IL).

While the Reds likely will continue cycling through several new pitchers this year, hopefully guys like Bale and Etherton will receive a long look as they both appear ready to contribute in Cincinnati. Etherton's 5.0 K/9 doesn't suggest any forthcoming dominance from the starter, however a 1.9 BB/9 and .8 HR/9 both are solid marks that appear particularly beneficial given the downside of pitching in the GAB in front of a half-dozen rookies. I hesitate to recommend any Reds' pitcher, but I've liked Etherton since he debuted with the Angels a couple years ago, and his excellent control should allow him to pitch decently for the Reds. Consider spending a few bucks of FAAB on Etherton if you need a starter and either can absorb the occasional qualitative disaster or can sit him at home against good offenses.

Previously discussed 2003 NL pitching prospects: May: Lance Davis; June: Jose Acevedo; July: John Bale.

Colorado: Cory Vance, 24, LH Starter
9-11 on a 96:50 K:BB in 157.1 IP over 24 GS
with 179 H, 18 HR, and a 4.63 ERA for AAA Colorado Springs(PCL).

I hesitate to recommend starters with great skills and consistently dominant QA scores in Coors, and we always attempt to sit any pitchers with a road trip to Colorado scheduled prior to the next transaction period. So while a 2.9 BB/9 is a welcome sight given the 4.1 BB/9 he posted over the first three years of his career, Vance's 5.5 K/9 and 1.0 HR/9 don't give any indication he could succeed in Coors. His falling strikeout rate leads me to believe he needs to spend some time in the bullpen, so although he could rebound as a starter given another year in AAA, ignore him if Colorado against promotes him late in the year since he won't contribute in standard categories.

Previously discussed 2003 NL pitching prospects: May: Jason Young; June: Matt J. Miller; July: Brad Clontz.

Florida: Justin Wayne, 24, RH Starter
0-2 on a 1:5 K:BB in 5.1 IP over 2 GS
with 9 H, 1 HR, a 9-9 G-F, and an 11.81 ERA for Florida.
4-12 on an 82:40 K:BB in 136 IP over 23 GS
with 138 H, 10 HR, and a 4.24 ERA for AAA Albuquerque(PCL).
0-0 on a 4:0 K:BB in 6 IP over 1 GS
with 6 H, 0 HR, and a 0.00 ERA for A+ Jupiter(FSL).

Wayne didn't impress anyone against Arizona in an April start and couldn't record a single out in an early May appearance in Houston before Florida sent him back to the minors. However, while he didn't display much dominance at AA in either of the last two seasons, a 5.4 K/9, combined with a 2.6 BB/9 and .7 HR/9 in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League indicates he shouldn't pitch terribly if the Marlins needed him later this year. His overall skill ratios make me believe he should remain in the rotation for another couple years, so even though he won't emerge as a great starter, he could contribute on some teams as soon as next spring. As long as the Marlins maintain their excellent defense, consider a minimal FAAB bid upon Wayne's eventual promotion, but don't make a significant investment if you can't afford the occasional qualitative disaster.

Previously discussed 2003 NL pitching prospects: May: Doug Bochtler; June: Scott Sanders; July: Sean Bergman.

Houston: Jared Fernandez, 31, RH Starter
1-0 on a 4:1 K:BB in 5.1 IP over 1 GS
with 3 H, 0 HR, a 3-7 G-F, and a 1.69 ERA for Houston.
7-10 on a 51:37 K:BB in 156 IP over 23 GS(26G)
with 164 H, 16 HR, and a 3.81 ERA for AAA New Orleans(PCL).

A quick glance at Fernandez's 1.4 K:BB immediately leads me to believe his solid start in Florida qualifies as a fluke. I'm quite surprising Houston promoted a pitcher with a 2.9 K/9, not to mention a barely acceptable .9 HR/9, yet perhaps they hope his solid 2.1 BB/9 will offset his extreme lack of dominance. Unfortunately the downside of pitching in Minute Maid places Fernandez at extreme risk for disastrous starts, and if he can't post an occasional necessary strikeout, he won't remain in the rotation long. Ignore him unless your only need is wins.

Previously discussed 2003 NL pitching prospects: May: Jonathan Johnson; June: Rodrigo Rosario; July: Rob Stanifer.

Los Angeles: Joel Hanrahan, 21, RH Starter
10-4 on a 130:53 K:BB in 133.1 IP over 23 GS
with 117 H, 5 HR, and a 2.43 ERA at AA Jacksonville(SL).

Las Vegas starters Lindsey Gulin, Andrew Lorraine, and Mike Saipe all could contribute in the majors, however Hanrahan, while lacking the upside of Edwin Jackson or Greg Miller, appears closer to debuting than the other Dodger pitching prospects. Although most of his stats this season are quite similar to his A-ball numbers, his homer rate dropped from a solid .7 to an outstanding .3 HR/9. He might wind up nestling behind Jackson and Miller in Los Angeles' long-term rotation, but like any skilled Dodger pitcher, Hanrahan could approach $20 a year. You definitely should attempt to FAAB him for a few bucks once he reaches Los Angeles as he could compete for a rotation spot in the spring.

Previously discussed 2003 NL pitching prospects: May: Steve Colyer; June: Wilson Alvarez; July: Victor Alvarez.

Milwaukee: Doug Davis, 27, LH Starter
4-6 on a 27:30 K:BB in 57 IP over 12 GS(13G)
with 74 H, 8 HR, a 1.11 G-F, and a 5.37 ERA between Texas and Toronto.
1-2 on a 19:10 K:BB in 34.2 IP over 5 GS
with 33 H, 2 HR, and a 4.15 ERA at AAA Indianapolis(IL).
3-0 on an 18:1 K:BB in 27.2 IP over 4 GS
with 29 H, 3 HR, and a 3.25 ERA at AAA Oklahoma(PCL).
1-0 on a 6:3 K:BB in 6 IP over 1 GS
with 5 H, 0 HR, and a 3.00 ERA at AA Huntsville(SL).

The Brewers appear likely to recall Davis soon given his decent performance at Indianapolis at Doug Melvin's success at recycling former Rangers' prospects like Scott Podsednik and Danny Kolb. Both Texas and Toronto DFA'd Davis earlier this year, however while he still retains some upside, he only dominated in one of his dozen starts, and he failed to pitch five innings in half his starts. No pitcher with a .9 K:BB in the majors belongs on a good fantasy team, so ignore Davis as the chance he could succeed pails in comparison with the likelihood of him destroying your qualitative stats.

Previously discussed 2003 NL pitching prospects: May: Danny L. Kolb; June: Pasqual Coco; July: Ben Ford.

Montreal: Scott Downs, 27, LH Starter
8-9 on a 54:39 K:BB in 121.2 IP over 21 GS
with 119 H, 13 HR, and a 4.29 ERA at AAA Edmonton(PCL).

The former intriguing Cubs' prospect, finally healthy, barely is posting numbers that resemble the stats he compiled with Chicago. Yet while his dominance has vanished, his 2.9 BB/9, 1.0 HR/9, and 8.8 H/9, particularly for someone pitching home games in Edmonton, ranks as impressive marks. He isn't someone to target until Downs proves himself in the majors, however a minimum FAAB bid here could result in the rostering of a starter who at least shouldn't hurt you qualitatively.

Previously discussed 2003 NL pitching prospects: May: Julio Manon; June: Eric Knott; July: Britt Reames.

New York Mets: Grant Roberts, 25, RH Reliever
0-0 on a 6:5 K:BB in 7.2 IP over 8 G
with 7 H, 0 HR, and a 3.52 ERA at AAA Norfolk(IL).
1-0 on a 5:3 K:BB in 9 IP over 2 GS(5G)
with 5 H, 0 HR, and a 0.00 ERA at A+ St. Lucie(FSL).

Roberts really isn't a prospect of pitching quite effectively in the Mets' pen over the last couple years, however shoulder tendinitis kept him out all season and he only will complete his rehab this week. While his control problems in the minors worry me, his dominance indicates he should reemerge as a successful middle reliever in the near future. However, unless the Mets abruptly change course in assigning save opportunities, only offer a low FAAB bid here if you need roster filler as I don't envision Roberts receiving many save opportunities.

Previously discussed 2003 NL pitching prospects: May: Aaron Heilman; June: Jason Roach; July: Orber Moreno.

Philadelphia: Amaury Telemaco, 29, RH Starter
10-9 on a 116:25 K:BB in 155.1 IP over 24 GS(25G)
with 125 H, 15 HR, and a 3.24 ERA at AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre(IL).

We remain firm believes in Brandon Duckworth's potential, but his struggles this season could result in Telemaco's promotion to the Philly starting rotation in the near future. Anyone who can hold a 1.3 BB/9 in extended AAA action deserves a shot in the majors, so while Telemaco hasn't produced consistently in the past, he appears ready to pitch effectively as a starter or dominate out of the bullpen. Definitely consider spending a few bucks of FAAB on Telemaco once the Phillies recall him.

Previously discussed 2003 NL pitching prospects: May: Ryan Madson; June: Geoff Geary; July: Josh Hancock.

Pittsburgh: Mike Gonzalez, 25, LH Reliever
0-0 and 1 Save on a 2:1 K:BB in 1.2 IP over 2 G
with 2 H, 0 HR, and a 0.00 ERA at AAA Pawtucket(IL).
0-0 and 2 Saves on a 10:4 K:BB in 10 IP over 7 G
with 9 H, 0 HR, and a 4.50 ERA at AAA Nashville(PCL).
0-0 and 1 Save on a 10:2 K:BB in 7.1 IP over 5 G
with 4 H, 1 HR, and a 1.23 ERA at AA Altoona(EL).
0-1 on a 9:5 K:BB in 7 IP over 5 G
with 7 H, 0 HR, and a 5.14 ERA at A+ Lynchburg(Car).

The Pirates' success last winter as signing undervalued AAAA pitchers gives them perhaps the best storehouse of respectable major league pitching talent in the upper minors. Unfortunately, they only grabbed Dennys Reyes and Mike Holtz as left-handed relievers, so while Holtz looks solid, I suspect Gonzalez, the best internal lefty relief prospect, might see Pittsburgh soon. Scott Sauerbeck's departure left the bullpen with only one lefty, Joe Beimel, so as Pittsburgh reacquired Gonzalez from Boston in the Jeff Suppan deal, they likely want to prove they selected the right player between Gonzalez and Anastacio Martinez. Although Gonzalez looked like a decent starter through 2002, he appears much more suited to relief work, and if pitches well down the stretch, he could break camp with the club next spring. Of course, as a second lefty unlikely to close, you still should ignore Gonzalez on fantasy teams, however he could emerge as quality roster filler very quickly.

Previously discussed 2003 NL pitching prospects: May: Ryan Vogelsong; June: Duaner Sanchez; July: Nelson Figueroa.

San Diego: Ben Howard, 24, RH Starter
7-9 on a 68:49 K:BB in 130.2 IP over 22 GS
with 118 H, 17 HR, and a 4.55 ERA at AAA Portland(PCL).

While this qualifies as a nice rebound season for Howard after a year in which he struggled terribly after emerging largely unscathed from the car crash that killed teammate Mike Darr, Howard doesn't appear ready to return to the majors. Unfortunately, unless the Padres plan to give another shot to Dennis Tankersley, Mike Bynum, or Carlton Loewer, Howard looks like the probable selection to replace Oliver Perez in the rotation if Perez finally gets dealt to Pittsburgh in a Brian Giles deal. His 4.7 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9 are rather poor marks, and even a decent 1.2 HR/9 doesn't compensate for his overall lack of dominance. Howard still may emerge as a quality pitcher, but ignore him now as I believe he needs more development time, possibly even below the AAA level.

Previously discussed 2003 NL pitching prospects: May: Carlton Loewer; June: Courtney Duncan; July: Dennis Tankersley.

San Francisco: Kevin Correia, 22, RH Starter
0-0 on a 1:1 K:BB in 1.1 IP over 1 G
with 2 H, 0 HR, and a 6.75 ERA at San Francisco.
1-0 on a 23:2 K:BB in 19 IP over 3 GS
with 16 H, 3 HR, and a 2.84 ERA at AAA Fresno(PCL).
6-6 on a 73:30 K:BB in 86.1 IP over 14 GS(16G)
with 80 H, 3 HR, and a 3.65 ERA at AA Norwich(EL).

The Giants stunned prospect watchers when they promoted Correia to the majors in mid-July after only one appearance at Fresno. San Francisco only just selected him in the fourth round of the 2002 draft, and while his 2-2 record and 4.54 ERA on a 31:14 K:BB in 38 IP over 8 GS(10G) at A- Salem-Keizer of the Northwest League a year ago looked decent, Baseball American didn't even rank him among the Giants' top 30 prospects prior to the season. Fellow Salem-Keizer prospects Greg Bruso and Luke Nelson both appeared far more likely to rise quickly through the system, yet Correia now ranks as the Giants' 6th starter following the trade of Moss and Ainsworth, Foppert's injury, and Ryan Jensen's ineffectiveness. My only real concerns at this point are Correia's walk rate and ground-fly ratio in the majors, however the sample size here is far too small to make effective guesses. Given the Giants' success with pitchers in the past and their apparent prescience of promoting him to Norwich to begin this year, I see no reason to doubt Correia's ability to pitch effectively in the pitchers' paradise of PacBell if needed. You might net a Giant sleeper if you can FAAB him for a few bucks the next time San Francisco promotes him.

Previously discussed 2003 NL pitching prospects: May: Matt Blank; June: Jeff Urban; July: Brian Powell.

St. Louis: Jimmy Journell, 25, RH Starter
6-6 and 5 Saves on a 70:32 K:BB in 78 IP over 7 GS(40G)
with 80 H, 3 HR, and a 3.92 ERA at AAA Memphis(PCL).

Journell no longer ranks as a top prospect after moving to the bullpen this year, but his continued dominance in relief should earn him a promotion in the near future given the Cardinals' perpetually changing pitching staff. While Journell could succeed immediately and earn a set-up role, LaRussa's impatience with nearly every reliever this year likely instead will lead to some initial struggles for Journell in an undefined role. Although he still possesses a bright future given his obvious talent, only FAAB him now if you can reserve him until he proves his worth to the Cardinals.

Previously discussed 2003 NL pitching prospects: May: Dan Haren; June: Jason Pearson; July: Matt Duff.

Internet Challenge

Randy Johnson: Sun:NYM(A.Leiter)
Kevin Brown: Sun:CHC(M.Prior)
Roy Halladay: Sun:TEX(C.Lewis)???
Jason Schmidt: Sun:PHI(B.Myers)
Mark Prior: Sun:@LA(K.Brown)
Esteban Loaiza: Sun:OAK(R.Harden)

No starts: Pedro, Schilling, Morris, Oswalt, Mussina, Millwood, Wood, and Ainsworth.

Randy, Brown, Schmidt, Prior, and Loaiza are easy calls, and if we can squeeze him on the roster instead of Ainsworth, we'll deploy Halladay on the outside chance he'll start Sunday on three days of rest.

Offensively, Kearns remains on the DL, and we need to sit Aramis Ramirez with the Cubs in Dodger Stadium. To deploy Helton, ARod, Vlad, Manny, and Berkman, as well as Orlando Cabrera in Houston, we're benching the injured and slumping Alfonso Soriano at home against Seattle. While we need to employ Ainsworth instead of hoping for a Halladay start, sitting Durazo gives us enough cap room to run one of our stronger offensive alignments of the year.

The Umpire Hunter(10th lg; 275th overall)
Week 19b: August 8-August 10

C	Jorge Posada		1120
C	Toby Hall		460
1B	Todd Helton		1850
1B	Aubrey Huff		610
2B	Luis Castillo		1210
2B	Marcus Giles		400
3B	Aaron Boone		1010
3B	Hank Blalock		500
SS	Alex Rodriguez		2010
SS	Nomar Garciaparra	1330
OF	Vlad Guerrero		2010
OF	Manny Ramirez		1610
OF	Preston Wilson		1220 
OF	Carl Everett		850
OF	Vernon Wells		750
OF	Hideki Matsui		750
DH	Lance Berkman		1640
DH	Orlando Cabrera		1030

SP	Randy Johnson		2010
SP	Kevin Brown		990
SP	Jason Schmidt		790
SP	Mark Prior		750
SP	Esteban Loaiza		680
SP	Kurt Ainsworth		430
RP	Eric Gagne		1430
RP	Mike MacDougal		750
RP	Tim Worrell		740
RP	Matt Mantei		700

Total Salary for Week 19b: 	29630

Today's Fantasy Rx: Whether you prefer pre-deadline deals or building through free agency in your league, make sure that you keep your team's core intact in any transaction. If you're in the middle of the pack in a few quantitative categories on either side of the ball, exercise extreme care in dealing anyone responsible for boosting you into that position thus far. Although late-season injuries can rip apart even the strongest team, dealing away a core quantitative producer, particularly to improve in the historically inconsistent qualitative categories, remains a risky proposition for any contender.