Today's Fantasy Rx

Note: For those of you unfamiliar with FAAB, each team normally begins with $100 to spend throughout the year on all free agent pickups. Most injury replacements or speculative picks go for a buck or two, hot starters go for $5-$10, top prospects go in the $10-$30 range, and we've seen $90+ bids on top players traded into the league.

Anaheim: Kevin Gregg, 25, RH Starter
9-6 on a 112:31 K:BB in 131.2 IP over 22 GS(26G)
with 125 H, 10 HR, and a 3.83 ERA between AA Arkansas(SL) and AAA Salt Lake(PCL).
Oakland let Gregg depart as a minor league free agent last fall after he posted a 7.52 ERA in 16 appearances at AAA Sacramento, largely ignoring his surprisingly impressive 4.30 ERA on a 45:18 K:BB in 38 IP over 11 games at AA Midland. The Angels grabbed Gregg and sent him right back to the Texas League, and he rewarded them by emerging as the most prepared pitcher in Anaheim's minors to spot start in the majors. Thanks to trading Schoeneweis, releasing Appier, moving Shields into the rotation, and Chris Bootcheck's unimpressive performance, expect the Angels to promote Gregg as soon as this weekend when they need a second starter for a doubleheader against Cleveland. He looks ready to succeed in the majors, and while I wish he owned a more impressive track record, Gregg's performance this season suggests he merits a low FAAB bid from any team needing a boost in strikeouts or innings.

Previously discussed 2003 AL pitching prospects: May: Greg Jones; June: Bart Miadich; July: Doug Nickle.

Baltimore: John Parrish, 25, LH Reliever
3-3 and 6 Saves on an 85:33 K:BB in 76.1 IP over 49 G
with 58 H, 5 HR, and a 2.00 ERA for AA Bowie(EL).

Parrish tore his ACL in the spring of 2002, missed the entire season, and then lost his spot on the 40-man roster. The Orioles sent him to the bullpen this year despite a 126:51 K:BB in 133 IP over 19 GS(26G) at AAA Rochester in 2001, and unsurprisingly Parrish now looks like one of the most promising young lefties in the game. A 3.9 BB/9 worries me, however a 10.0 K/9, 6.9 H/9, and a .6 HR/9 all suggest he'll find success if the Orioles promote him after finally trading someone like Buddy Groom. Wait until he demonstrates he can carry these skills to a higher level again before you consider spending a minimum amount of FAAB on him when you look for low-risk roster filler.

Previously discussed 2003 AL pitching prospects: May: Hector Carrasco; June: Eric DuBose; July: John Stephens.

Boston: Jorge de la Rosa, 22, LH Starter
6-3 on a 102:36 K:BB in 99.2 IP over 20 GS(22G)
with 87 H, 6 HR, and a 2.80 ERA for AA Portland(EL).

De la Rosa looked destined for the bullpen after only managing a 42:29 K:BB in 55 IP at AA Trenton the last two years following mid-season promotions from A+ Sarasota(FSL), where he compiled a combined 122:64 K:BB in 151 IP. However, after turning 22 this April, de la Rosa emerged as one of the best pitching prospects in the minors. His 9.2 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, and .5 HR/9 all suggest he could succeed as a starter at AAA Pawtucket and a reliever in the majors if promoted now. Hopefully Boston will let de la Rosa follow Casey Fossum's development path over the next year, allowing him to break camp as a lefty reliever before improving his endurance in the minors for a couple months prior to returning to the Red Sox as a starter. Of course, his improvement this year, coupled with his past control problems, suggests he might benefit the club most as trade bait for an established player. If you want to grab a promising young starter for a rebuilding team, bid a minimum amount of FAAB on de la Rosa once Boston promotes him as he we should see him in the majors somewhere in 2004.

Previously discussed 2003 AL pitching prospects: May: Ryan Rupe; June: Bronson Arroyo; July: Dicky Gonzalez.

Chicago White Sox: Neal Cotts, 23, LH Starter
9-7 on a 133:56 K:BB in 108.1 IP over 21 GS
with 67 H, 2 HR, and a 2.16 ERA for AA Birmingham(SL).

Cotts received significant media attention when he started the Futures Game in the Cell, and an 11.0 K/9 in his first AA experience elevates him near the most promising young pitchers in the game. More importantly, his 4.7 BB/9 demonstrates his improved control as he's walking over a batter less per game than he managed with Oakland at A+ Modesto(Cal) last year. Of course, a 4.7 walk rate at AA suggests he needs to improve his control before any promotion, yet we keep seeing rumors about Chicago's dissatisfaction with Dan Wright. With the team looking unlikely to trust any of their AAA arms, we might see Cotts in Chicago very soon. Unfortunately he isn't even prepared for the highest level of the minors, so ignore Cotts unless you're rebuilding and can keep him next year even when he doesn't open the year in the majors.

Previously discussed 2003 AL pitching prospects: May: Matt Ginter; June: Mike Porzio; July: Jon Rauch.

Cleveland: David Cortes, 29, RH Reliever
1-0 and 1 Save on a 9:0 K:BB in 6.2 IP over 5 G
with 4 H, 1 HR, and a 2.70 ERA for AAA Buffalo(IL).
4-3 on a 39:18 K:BB in 53.1 IP over 48 G
with 58 H, 3 HR, and a 2.70 ERA for I Dos Laredos(MEX).

The Indians just signed Cortes from the Mexican League a few days ago, but given the frequent satisfaction the team shows with keeping the same relievers more than a week or two at a time, he should join the team before the end of the month. Of course, even when Cortes managed to stay healthy, he hasn't demonstrated any dominance anywhere other than the Mexican League since 1999. Ignore him as Cleveland already possesses two great late-inning options in Danys Baez and Dave Riske.

Previously discussed 2003 AL pitching prospects: May: Jason Stanford; June: Lance Caracioli; July: Cliff Lee.

Detroit: Nate Robertson, 25, LH Starter
9-7 on a 102:47 K:BB in 155 IP over 23 GS(24G)
with 145 H, 14 HR, and a 3.14 ERA for AAA Toledo(IL).

Mark Redman's emergence as a top starter this year already makes the Tigers' end of that deal look fairly poor, however Robertson should join Gary Knotts by the end of the season as credible rotation filler for Detroit. Although Robertson's 5.9 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 obviously aren't fantastic marks, they appear nearly identical to the skills he posted in 2002 for AA Portland. Maintaining solid skills after a promotion always impresses me, so while Detroit needs dominant starters, they need to promote Robertson immediately since he at least looks capable of keeping them close in most games. As long as you don't mind the likely lack of wins in his stat lines, look to FAAB Robertson upon his pending promotion in any league where you need an extra starting pitcher.

Previously discussed 2003 AL pitching prospects: May: Fernando Rodney; June: Tyler Walker; July: Shane Loux.

Kansas City: Jimmy Gobble, 22, LH Starter
1-0 on a 3:1 K:BB in 6 IP over 1 GS
with 6 H, 0 HR, a 7-7 G-F, and a 0.00 ERA for Kansas City.
12-8 on a 100:40 K:BB in 133.2 IP over 22 GS
with 128 H, 11 HR, and a 3.19 ERA for AA Wichita(TL).

After the Royals promoted Gobble last week, he promptly shut out Tampa Bay for six innings and posted a 4 QA in his major league debut. As they also pulled him after 83 pitches despite the shut out, I'm not worried about Kansas City overworking Gobble in the same manner as Runelvys Hernandez. Gobble demonstrated solid all-around skills for the second straight season at Wichita, and while a couple months at AAA would help his development, he should pitch decently for the Royals over the next two months. Of course, only FAAB him in leagues where you can afford occasional qualitative disasters since he suffers from control lapses and will play home games in the American League's best hitters' park.

Previously discussed 2003 AL pitching prospects: May: Jason Gilfillan; June: Ryan Baerlocher; July: Les Walrond.

Minnesota: Carlos Pulido, 32, LH Starter
12-5 on an 87:40 K:BB in 149.1 IP over 25 GS
with 145 H, 13 HR, and a 3.56 ERA for AAA Rochester(IL).

Relievers like Jesse Crain and Juan Padilla look like studs, but Minnesota can't find room for Nakamura or Palki right now. Pulido's double-digit wins make him the likely call-up if the Twins need another spot starter. Of course, Pulido hardly qualifies as a prospect considering his age and the face he skipped two of the last four seasons after a year in the Atlantic League and before spending 2002 in the Mexican League. He only appeared in the majors for Minnesota in 1994 and hasn't played for an affiliated team since 1998, however even though he lacks dominance, his solid control makes him an acceptable gamble under certain circumstances. Consider a minimum FAAB bid here if you're desperate to add wins.

Previously discussed 2003 AL pitching prospects: May: Michael Nakamura; June: Grant Balfour; July: Jeromy Palki.

New York Yankees: Julio DePaula, 24, RH Starter
10-11 on a 125:57 K:BB in 167.2 IP over 27 GS
with 168 H, 22 HR, and a 4.35 ERA for AAA Columbus(IL).

Given that DePaula posted a 152:52 K:BB in 175 IP at AA Norwich in 2002, neither his 6.7 K/9 nor a 3.1 BB/9 overly diminishes his status as a quality pitching prospect. Unfortunately, a jump from a .6 HR/9 to a 1.2 HR/9, when considered along with his other skill ratio drops, suggests he needs another year in the minors. New York rarely trusts a rookie in the rotation, and as DePaula's current profile overly impresses neither scouts nor sabermetricians, I don't expect him to see much time with the Yankees either this season or during the first half of 2004. Ignore DePaula unless a sudden rash of severe pitching injuries forces him into a significant role in the majors.

Previously discussed 2003 AL pitching prospects: May: Adrian Hernandez; June: Brandon Claussen; July: Colter Bean.

Oakland: Chad Harville, 26, RH Reliever
0-0 on a 4:0 K:BB in 2 IP over 2 G
with 2 H, 0 HR, a 1-1 G-F, and a 0.00 ERA for Oakland.
3-5 and 18 Saves on a 57:21 K:BB in 57 IP over 48 G
with 42 H, 5 HR, and a 2.05 ERA for AAA Sacramento(PCL).

Jim Mecir's trip to the DL allowed the A's to return their former top relief prospect to his rightful place on the 40-man roster. Harville appears both fully recovered from last year's arm problems and able to contribute to Oakland's bullpen for the rest of this season. Not only should his dominant performance as the RiverCats' closer insure he remains on the roster all winter, Harville could compete with Jim Mecir and Chad Bradford to close next year if Billy Beane decides not to overpay for a subpar closer after enjoying Foulke's services for a year. Feel free to FAAB Harville immediately as he looks safe to leave on your roster now and likely to remain a solid keeper anywhere in the low single digits.

Previously discussed 2003 AL pitching prospects: May: Justin Duchscherer; June: Erik Hiljus; July: Rich Harden.

Seattle: Aaron Looper, 26, RH Reliever
0-0 on a 2:1 K:BB in 1 IP over 1 G
with 0 H, 0 HR, a 1-0 G-F, and a 0.00 ERA for Seattle.
5-2 and 5 Saves on a 67:26 K:BB in 75.1 IP over 46 G
with 72 H, 10 HR, and a 3.11 for AAA Tacoma(PCL).

Aaron Taylor's 8.53 ERA in July prompted the Mariners to flip Aarons a couple days ago, yet Looper doesn't quite own the skills of Taylor and likely won't experience much more success with Seattle right now. A 8.0 K/9 is a promising improvement considering he moved up a level this year, but Looper's 1.2 HR/9 is an obvious disappointment after he posted an outstanding .4 homer rate in the Texas League last season. An increasing walk rate also suggests he needs a little more seasoning, so while anyone pitching in front of the Mariners' defense in Safeco should post decent qualitative numbers, you still should ignore Looper for now given his limited immediate upside.

Previously discussed 2003 AL pitching prospects: May: Rafael Soriano; June: Aaron Taylor; July: Rett Johnson.

Tampa Bay: Chad Gaudin, 20, RH Starter
0-0 on a 4:3 K:BB in 3.1 IP over 2 G
with 4 H, 0 HR, a 6-3 G-F, and a 2.70 ERA for Tampa Bay.
2-0 on a 23:3 K:BB in 19 IP over 3 GS
with 8 H, 0 HR, and a .47 ERA for AA Orlando(SL).
5-3 on a 70:23 K:BB in 80.1 IP over 14 GS
with 63 H, 2 HR, and a 2.13 ERA for A+ Bakersfield(Cal).

Fellow recent call-up Jon Switzer appears more prepared for the majors than Gaudin, who only has pitched in three games above A-ball, but Gaudin seems more likely to enter the Rays' rotation in the near future than Switzer. I don't agree with Tampa's trend of promoting players from the California League to the majors in one season. Even if they find an occasional gem like Baldelli, the risk of damaging the psyche of someone like Dewon Brazelton outweighs the immediate rewards even without considering the advanced arbitration and free agent clocks of these players. Yet we should find some fantasy sleepers here if the Rays keep rushing pitchers to the majors. Gaudin posted a 106:37 K:BB in 119 IP in the Sally League in 2002, and his similar performance at high-A prior to his three dominant starts at Orlando at least makes him a reasonable call-up at this time. Of course, Gaudin still carries as much risk right now as any young pitcher in fantasy baseball, so ignore him until you see a few consistently decent QA scores.

Previously discussed 2003 AL pitching prospects: May: Jeremi Gonzalez; June: Talley Haines; July: Lee Gardner.

Texas: Juan Dominguez, 23, RH Starter
5-0 on a 54:21 K:BB in 55.1 IP over 9 GS
with 35 H, 2 HR, and a 2.60 ERA for AA Frisco(TL).
4-0 on a 72:16 K:BB in 63.1 IP over 9 GS(16G)
with 55 H, 3 HR, and a 2.84 ERA for A+ Stockton(Cal).

The former Jose Dominguez aged over two years this offseason, however he immediately resumed pitching effectively in a very promising follow-up season to the 2.16 ERA on a 70:21 K:BB in 67 IP he posted last season in the Sally League. While his rising walk rate at Frisco could create problems for him with the Rangers, Dominguez's domination of most hitters at least gives him a good chance to succeed in Texas. OF course, the standard caveat regarding the hitters' park in Arlington and the Rangers' inconsistent defense applies to Dominguez, but Texas still soon should promote Dominguez any day to fill one of their frequently vacant rotation slots. If you need wins and can risk a qualitative hit, consider a small FAAB bid on Dominguez.

Previously discussed 2003 AL pitching prospects: May: Victor Santos; June: Tony Mounce; July: Reynaldo Garcia.

Toronto: Brian Bowles, 26, RH Reliever
0-0 on a 0:0 K:BB in 1.1 IP over 2 G
with 3 H, 0 HR, a 2-4 G-F, and a 6.75 ERA for Toronto.
2-3 and 14 Saves on a 32:21 K:BB in 47.1 IP over 41 G
with 47 H, 1 HR, and a 2.66 ERA for AAA Syracuse(IL).

I'm surprised at the lack of obviously prepared pitchers at Syracuse, and the lack of impressive prospects likely means we'll see Bowles back in the majors in the near future given his solid ERA and overall passable skills. Bowles continues to post a similar set of stats to what he managed last year. Nothing in his current repertoire indicates a return of the dominance he displayed in 2001 when he compiled a 2.91 ERA on an 81:44 K:BB in 77 IP, so he isn't even a safe bet to employ as roster filler right now. Ignore Bowles until his walk rate reaches a level that doesn't leave your WHIP extremely exposed.

Previously discussed 2003 AL pitching prospects: May: Josh Towers; June: Corey Thurman; July: Jason Arnold.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Regardless of your place in the standings, as long as your league employs some sort of reserve list, try to stash one or two prospects in the coming weeks. Several recent call-ups look likely to break double-digit value next season, and grabbing one for a couple of bucks of FAAB could significantly improve your team for the future.