Today's Fantasy Rx

We're modifying our planned schedule slightly due to the number of upper-level prospects dealt and promoted within the last week. The significant number of players ready to contribute to fantasy teams either over the remainder of this season or in 2004 merit discussion now while they're still on many league's free agent lists. As I've already discussed the vast majority of players who've remained in the majors all season, I hope no one objects to delaying the planned articles on Overachievers until next week.

I'm going to spend a few days looking at potential fantasy help currently residing in the upper levels of the minors, one hitter and one pitcher, so you can know who to monitor for potential FAABing. Since most teams will still promote talent from AAA if given the chance, I'll only select a AA prospect if a AAA club lacks any promotion-worthy candidates.

We begin today with American League batting prospects.

Note: For those of you unfamiliar with FAAB, each team normally begins with $100 to spend throughout the year on all free agent pickups. Most injury replacements or speculative picks go for a buck or two, hot starters go for $5-$10, top prospects go in the $10-$30 range, and we've seen $90+ bids on top players traded into the league.

Anaheim: Robb Quinlan, 26, 1B/OF
6/15 for .400/.400/.467 with 0 HR, 0 RBI, 2 R, 0/1 SB%,
and a 0:2 BB:K in Anaheim.
122/393 for .310/.352/.445 with 9 HR, 68 RBI, 55 R, 10/13 SB%,
and a 25:59 BB:K at AAA Salt Lake(PCL).

The 2002 PCL MVP, Quinlan looks like he'll remain in the Angels' lineup even after Troy Glaus returns, shifting Scott Spiezio back to 1B and Quinlan to a DH spot vacated by Brad Fullmer's injury and Jeff DaVanon's recent slump. Yet while his strong debut over the past week suggests he'll find regular playing time, both a 2.53 #P/PA and 9-1 G-F suggest significant downside. While a drop in his AAA walk rate from .08 to .06 concerns me, a jump in his contact rate from .82 to .85 indicates welcome development. I suspect the drop in Quinlan's plate discipline is due to his disbelief that Anaheim left him in the minors after he posted a .333/.376/.555 line with 112 RBI in his first season at AAA, and while I doubt he ever will match that performance in the majors, he possesses the necessary skills to start for a few years. Consider a low FAAB bid, particularly if your team requires an immediate quantitative boost.

Previously discussed 2003 AL hitting prospects: May: Alfredo Amezaga; June: Chone Figgins; July: Trent Durrington.

Baltimore: Jose Leon, 27, 3B
7/27 for .259/.355/.259 with 0 HR, 0 RBI, 4 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 2:9 BB:K.
73/275 for .265/.307/.385 with 4 HR, 33 RBI, 29 R, 1/1 SB%,
and a 14:40 BB:K at AAA Ottawa(IL).

Although Tim Raines, Jr. finally appears ready to give Baltimore a third young outfielder and speedster, Leon looks like the next youngster to see regular playing time with the Orioles. Unfortunately, I see no indication he even will echo the emergence of Roberts, Matos, or Bigbie as he lacks sufficient plate discipline and power potential to develop into anything more than a mediocre starter. A 3.52 #P/PA suggests he possesses enough patience to improve over the next few years, however his ground-fly ratio remains above 2.00 and his weak slugging percentage gives him little overall upside. Ignore Leon even if a Tony Batista trade cedes him third base unless you desperately need any quantitative boost and can absorb a mild BA hit.

Previously discussed 2003 AL hitting prospects: May: Brian Roberts; June: Jack Cust; July: Robert Machado.

Boston: Kevin Youkilis, 24, 3B
110/375 for .293/.453/.427 with 8 HR, 46 RBI, 79 R, 7/7 SB%,
and a 96:51 BB:K between AA Portland(EL) and AAA Pawtucket(IL).

Tonight Youkilis will attempt to break the minor league record for consecutive games reaching base, a record somewhat ironically held by former Portland Sea Dog Kevin Millar, whose role Boston expects Youkilis to fill by 2005. Labeled "The Greek God of Walks" by Michael Lewis in Moneyball, Youkilis obviously owns fantastic plate discipline, however posting a sub-.200 BA in AAA is unacceptable under nearly any circumstances. He doesn't own much power, committed 20 errors in 93 games at third base for Portland this season, and doesn't appear ready to contribute in the majors. While he ranks with the best long-term hitting prospects in the game and could develop into Edgar Martinez with a little luck, Youkilis is someone you should ignore if the Red Sox promote him again this season.

Previously discussed 2003 AL hitting prospects: May: Freddy Sanchez; June: Lou Collier; July: Chad Mottola.

Chicago White Sox: Tim Hummel, 24, 3B/SS
128/449 for .285/.351/.445 with 14 HR, 74 RBI, 70 R, 9/12 SB%,
and a 44:78 BB:K at AAA Charlotte(IL).

The regression of Joe Borchard leaves Jeremy Reed as Chicago's top position prospect, however Reed only reached AA a few weeks ago and shouldn't contribute before next season. Hummel, who nearly fell off all prospect charts after posting a .260/.332/.346 in his first exposure to AAA a year ago, now looks to possess the skills and upside necessary to eventually secure a starting infield job. Jose Valentin isn't justifying his contract at shortstop for the White Sox, and as Hummel only has committed 13 errors in 127 games split between 3B, SS, and 2B, Chicago should recall him if they need a temporary starter or a back-up on the left side of the infield. While Hummel isn't a top prospect, he possesses enough power, speed, and plate discipline to contribute in most fantasy leagues, making him worth a small FAAB bid once he reaches the majors.

Previously discussed 2003 AL hitting prospects: May: Cliff Brumbaugh; June: Aaron Miles; July: Ross Gload.

Cleveland: Alex Escobar, 24, OF
110/439 for .251/.296/.472 with 24 HR, 78 RBI, 63 R, 8/11 SB%,
and a 24:133 BB:K at AAA Buffalo(IL).

Losing two of the last four seasons to injury leaves Escobar far behind a normal development curve for someone his age, and considering he always suffered from poor contact rates, he likely never will attain the potential suggested by his formerly prodigious tools. While Escobar ranks among the International League leaders in the primary power categories, his woeful OBP indicates he doesn't even merit a bench job in Cleveland. The Indians' future outfield should include Grady Sizemore, Coco Crisp, and Ryan Ludwick for an optimal combination of power, speed, and defense, yet Cleveland also could keep Milton Bradley and/or start Jody Gerut or any of the decent lower-level prospects beginning to display solid skills. I simply don't see a place for Escobar here unless he can remain healthy, develop plate discipline, and outplay Ludwick, so ignore Escobar despite his quantitative performance even if the Indians decide to give him a long look in the outfield later this year.

Previously discussed 2003 AL hitting prospects: May: Coco Crisp; June: Travis Hafner; July: Greg LaRocca.

Detroit: Cody Ross, 22, OF
1/12 for .083/.214/.083 with 0 HR, 1 RBI, 0 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 1:1 BB:K in Detroit.
118/413 for .286/.329/.499 with 16 HR, 53 RBI, 60 R, 10/15 SB%,
and a 27:82 BB:K at AAA Toledo(IL).

Ross is Detroit's only decent upper-level prospect who still retains rookie status, and despite the same lack of plate discipline that permeates the organization, his combination of power and speed should insure he receives a long look on the 2004 Tigers. Even if Detroit doesn't deal Bobby Higginson and/or Dmitri Young, Ross should push someone like Young to DH on most days as I don't see him benefiting from another year under the same misguided minor league coaches. Although Ross wouldn't rank among the top half-dozen outfield prospects in an organization like Cleveland, Texas, or Tampa Bay, the Tigers have no reason not to give him an opportunity to win a job next spring. If you see him in the majors later this year, feel free to FAAB Ross for a couple bucks in keeper leagues if you can stash him on reserve at your leisure.

Previously discussed 2003 AL hitting prospects: May: Kevin Witt; June: Andres Torres; July: Ernie Young.

Kansas City: David DeJesus, 23, OF
72/231 for .312/.423/.485 with 6 HR, 26 RBI, 53 R, 7/12 SB%,
and a 37:29 BB:K between AA Wichita(TL) and AAA Omaha(PCL).

The Royals desperately need another bat after failing to acquire even a journeyman like Reggie Sanders to bolster their unimpressive offense, and while DeJesus isn't even a consistent starter in the minors, his skill set offers more upside to Kansas City than any other position player in their minors. Slotting DeJesus in left field, Ibanez at DH, and Harvey on the bench when Sweeney's healthy looks like an obvious upgrade of the Royals' attack. DeJesus also owns the variety of skills necessary to make a substantial contribution to fantasy teams, so once he reaches the majors, look to FAAB him immediately. If he can hold a starting job, he might be worth keeping even at a low double-digit salary.

Previously discussed 2003 AL hitting prospects: May: Brent Abernathy; June: Morgan Burkhart; July: Mike Kelly.

Minnesota: Mike Restovich, 24, OF
8/21 for .381/.480/.619 with 0 HR, 2 RBI, 7 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 4:4 BB:K in Minnesota.
121/444 for .273/.343/.464 with 16 HR, 71 RBI, 73 R, 10/13 SB%,
and a 45:116 BB:K at AAA Rochester(IL).

The Twins promoted Restovich a week ago while sending down Justin Morneau, a move designed to give Minnesota more right-handed power and an additional outfielder. Of course, Restovich's play over the last week should keep him with the Twins indefinitely unless they decide they prefer LeCroy at DH once Jacque Jones and Shannon Stewart appear healthy enough to play the field every day. A weak contact rate remains Restovich's major obstacle both to remaining in the majors now and finding long-term success, and his .74 mark this season is a welcome improvement over his .71 in 2002. He should continue developing into a solid power threat if he can boost his contact rate above .75 in the majors, so based on his overall offensive progress thus far, definitely look to FAAB him immediately, particularly in keeper leagues.

Previously discussed 2003 AL hitting prospects: May: Luis Rodriguez; June: Justin Morneau; July: Dave Lamb.

New York Yankees: Juan Rivera, 25, OF
27/114 for .237/.285/.351 with 1 HR, 11 RBI, 11 R, 0/0 SB%,
and an 8:15 BB:K in New York.
100/308 for .325/.374/.461 with 7 HR, 37 RBI, 47 R, 1/4 SB%,
and a 26:37 BB:K at AAA Columbus(IL).

The Mondesi trade leaves Rivera the only logical long-term solution in right field among current Yankee prospects, however his struggles when in New York this year lead me to believe that the team will trade him for an established outfielder this off-season. His AAA stats continue to indicate that he should perform solidly as a major league starter for a half dozen seasons or more, yet Rivera just doesn't appear comfortable playing for the Yankees. I don't see enough immediate upside to recommend Rivera given his inconsistent plate discipline and power potential, but don't ignore him indefinitely as his fantasy future remains bright.

Previously discussed 2003 AL hitting prospects: May: Michel Hernandez; June: Bobby Smith; July: Fernando Seguignol.

Oakland: Mike Edwards, 26, OF
130/436 for .298/.387/.466 with 14 HR, 95 RBI, 78 R, 5/7 SB%,
and a 60:78 BB:K at AAA Sacramento(PCL).

Graham Koonce offers more offensive upside and both Chris Prieto and Mike Lockwood look able to contribute in the majors, but Edwards owns the best combination of power, plate discipline, average, and defensive ability on the RiverCats. If Oakland tries again to fix their weak outfield offense by promoting internally, Edwards is the logical choice since he owns an excellent track record, appears able to hit at the top of the order, and adds defensive flexibility to the roster. Of course, the Athletics already have Guillen, Singleton, Long, Byrnes, and McMillon, and I don't see them demoting Byrnes, so you likely should ignore Edwards until some team seems ready to commit to giving him an extended look in the majors.

Previously discussed 2003 AL hitting prospects: May: Jose Flores; June: Esteban German; July: Bobby Crosby.

Seattle: Luis Ugueto, 24, 2B/SS
0/4 for .000/.200/.000 with 0 HR, 1 RBI, 3 R, 1/1 SB%,
and a 1:0 BB:K in Seattle.
91/350 for .260/.314/.312 with 1 HR, 40 RBI, 53 R, 25/35 SB%,
and a 27:75 BB:K at AA San Antonio(TL).

The Mariners just demoted Ugueto a couple days ago, and if any more of Seattle's infielders encounter injury troubles, I expect to see him back in the majors. Seattle sent him to Tacoma this time instead of returning to AA San Antonio, which is where he spent the first half of the season. Unfortunately Ugueto lacks any semblance of power or plate discipline, and the Mariners shouldn't bother rostering another infielder with an empty batting average even if he owns decent speed, solid range, and a good glove. As Seattle needs to give Ugueto at least another year of development time, you definitely should ignore him for the indefinite future.

Previously discussed 2003 AL hitting prospects: May: Chad Meyers; June: Luis Figueroa; July: Pat Borders.

Tampa Bay: Jared Sandberg, 25, 3B
14/59 for .237/.338/.458 with 2 HR, 13 RBI, 7 R, 0/0 SB%,
and an 8:20 BB:K in Tampa Bay.
63/272 for .232/.313/.434 with 12 HR, 37 RBI, 40 R, 1/1 SB%,
and a 30:95 BB:K at AAA Durham(IL).

Sandberg returned to the majors a few days ago after a two-week demotion, and he should start for Tampa at third base for the rest of the season as they try to discover if he will develop into a long-term solution at third base for the Rays. Unfortunately, despite developing patience at the plate, Sandberg is no different from almost any other baseball player in that he doesn't possess the skills to overcome a sub-.67 contact rate. While his .10+ walk rate and power potential indicate he eventually will contribute offensively in the majors, I see nothing to suggest he can claim a starting job this month. As his terrible BA also negates his quantitative contribution, ignore Sandberg unless you can suffer the average hit to add the slight power boost.

Previously discussed 2003 AL hitting prospects: May: Antonio Perez; June: Jason Smith; July: Pete LaForest.

Texas: Ramon Nivar, 23, 2B/SS/OF
140/406 for .345/.383/.466 with 6 HR, 49 RBI, 64 R, 15/25 SB%,
and a 25:28 BB:K between AA Frisco(TL) and AAA Oklahoma(PCL).

The Rangers promoted Nivar three days ago thanks to his excellent performance in the minors this season. After posting a .305/.353/.403 in 2002 during his third year at A+ Charlotte(FSL) as Ramon Martinez, Nivar adopted his mother's surname during the offseason and then started hammering the ball once the Rangers finally promoted him to AA this spring. Texas shifted him to the outfield this season after Mike Young's unexpected offensive improvement, so while Nivar possesses the ability to start at either middle infield position, he will remain in center field for now. The Ryan Ludwick trade means that Kevin Mench and Laynce Nix eventually will occupy left and right field respectively for the Rangers, so if Nivar can continue developing into a solid leadoff hitter, he should play between Mench and Nix indefinitely. Look to spend a significant amount of FAAB on Nivar this week given his BA/SB upside, both over the balance of the season and the next few years.

Previously discussed 2003 AL hitting prospects: May: Jeff Pickler; June: Ryan Ludwick; July: Jason Hart.

Toronto: Howie Clark, 29, 2B/UT
23/65 for .354/.400/.431 with 0 HR, 5 RBI, 9 R, 0/1 SB%,
and a 3:6 BB:K in Toronto.
65/252 for .258/.316/.369 with 4 HR, 30 RBI, 29 R, 1/1 SB%,
and a 21:20 BB:K at AAA Syracuse(IL).

I don't understand why Toronto demoted Clark a couple days ago as his overall production remains superior to nearly every current Jays' infielder. His minor league performance is rather weak this season and he doesn't possess great power, yet Clark's defensive flexibility and impressive production in Toronto over the last several weeks should have kept him in the majors. Now Clark likely will spend the month in the minors before returning after rosters expand, and while I believe he belongs with the Jays now, ignore him unless they appear ready to give him regular playing time.

Previously discussed 2003 AL hitting prospects: May: Reed Johnson; June: Tony Zuniga; July: Kevin Cash.

Today's Fantasy Rx: With most league's trading deadlines sometime within the last or next weeks, try to find one or two final ways to upgrade your team before your only recourse to add talent is free agency.