by Tim Polko
Today's Fantasy Rx
Please check here for a complete description of these rankings. We've included the five most recent 2003 QA scores for each starter, along with the 10 most recent QA scores for each reliever, tabulating all data through July 31st.
1
23BCYZ - Pedro Martinez(44503)
3ABCXZ - Roger Clemens(24545)
AX - Esteban Loiaza(35445)
23abcxyz - Arthur Rhodes(5545343443)
2abxy - LaTroy Hawkins(2444425434)
abcxyz - Jason Grimsley(3340534544)
ac - Aaron Fultz(3423325445)
ax - Danys Baez(5255545445)
ay - Scot Shields(2404455422)
Travis Harper(4333341403)
2
3ABCXYZ - Roy Halladay(54555)
3ACY - Mark Mulder(43034)
Abcyz - Byung-Hyun Kim(23423)
3abcxyz - Mariano Rivera(3354454544)
3bcyz - Buddy Groom(4332241054)
abcxyz - Keith Foulke(4354235432)
abcxy - Chad Bradford(4444444432)
bcyz - Ricardo Rincon(4351514255)
abx - Damaso Marte(4334431231)
aby - Francisco Cordero(4544231242)
bcy - Alan Embree(3413553433)
3
ABCXYZ - Tim Hudson(30245)
AX - Mike Mussina(33343)
A - Joel Pineiro(35443)
C - Kevin Appier(44311)
C - John Burkett(33014)
Freddy Garcia(43443)
bcyz - Steve Karsay
bcyz - Bob Wickman
by - Cliff Politte(4334332525)
cz - Ramiro Mendoza(2412035521)
A
Cab - Kelvim Escobar(40454)
X - Ismael Valdes(33444)
Adam Bernero(44440)
Kyle Lohse(53452)
Gil Meche(52245)
Joaquin Benoit(50401)
B
Ycz - Derek Lowe(43352)
YZ - Tim Wakefield(40053)
Y - Mark Buehrle(43503)
Y - Jeff Weaver(13331)
Z - Andy Pettitte(05504)
Bartolo Colon(43443)
Rodrigo Lopez(31303)
Casey Fossum(45210)
Ryan Rupe(32)
Mickey Callaway(4453145332)
C
Z - Chan Ho Park(33300)
Z - Jon Lieber
Cory Lidle(45314)
John Thomson(23350)
Jake Westbrook(42544433)
Zx - Brandon Lyon(4253443343)
X
Y - David Wells(33244)
Jeremi Gonzalez(34323)
Y
cz - Victor Zambrano(34434)
Z
Jon Garland(35053)
Barry Zito(42233)
a
bcxyz - Mike Timlin(5444445542)
bcxyz - Tom Gordon(4444234334)
bcxyz - Kazuhiro Sasaki(4555334543)
bcxz - Jim Mecir(4352444444)
bcxz - Jeff Nelson(315445353)
bcyz - Billy Koch(4523423334)
bcyz - Troy Percival(4534422542)
bxy - Eddie Guardado(4443424402)
bc - Kelly Wunsch(4444303034)
bx - Brendan Donnelly(3335345343)
bx - Brian Shouse(3243344344)
cx - David Riske(4442444424)
xy - Jorge Julio(2355443244)
b - Scott Schoeneweis(4342203544)
x - Aquilino Lopez(4335244435)
x - Jason Shiell(2453442354)
x - B.J. Ryan(5443402044)
x - Mike MacDougal(4343344523)
z - Sean Lowe(2453352451)
Chris Spurling(4441443343)
Franklyn German(5305434415)
Mike Neu(4224524322)
b
y - Omar Daal(44033)
y - Brian Anderson(14305)
y - Jeremy Affeldt(24303)
y - Mark Hendrickson(33003)
cyz - Rick White(2020544434)
yz - Ben Weber(3242445333)
yz - Gary Glover(1322331043)
yz - Mike Fetters(43344)
y - Chris Hammond(4254344434)
y - J.C. Romero(4414140330)
y - Al Reyes(35322233)
Julio Mateo(4421430344)
Travis Driskill(2230132434)
Juan Acevedo(4330233322)
c
z - Willis Roberts(0343445523)
z - Al Levine(3423525224)
z - Kris Wilson(3423324353)
z - Rudy Seanez(3325050)
z - Danny Patterson
z - Jeff Zimmerman
Tanyon Sturtze(4234453225)
Giovanni Carrara(0342232423)
x
z - Shigetoshi Hasegawa(4524443335)
z - Mike Venafro(2444324333)
Scott Service(5332334344)
Francisco Rodriguez(1355333343)
y
Johan Santana(444 as a starter)
Dave Elder(4401)
z
Jay Powell(2223330244)
Mark Wohlers
AL starters I recommend despite their failure to appear above include Jeremy Bonderman(40334), Nate Cornejo(34322), Jason Davis(33414), Ryan Franklin(23342), John Lackey(42453), Mike Maroth(24033), Ramon Ortiz(41433), Brad Radke(04432), Kyle Snyder(14153), Jarrod Washburn(42411), and Danny Wright(04043).
Other decent relievers include D.J. Carrasco, Lance Carter, and Jesus Colome.
We modified these ratings slightly since posting our team-by-team LPR scores in January. By reworking the A-Z and a-z ratings, we now can easily identify effective starters rather than looking for truly dominant performers, of which we only found a few pitchers in any of the previous few seasons.
1 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2003.
2 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2002.
3 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2001.
QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score.
QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score.
Note: Starters must pitch in five games before scoring DOM or DIS ratings; relievers must appear in no less than 10 games before earning DOM/DIS consideration. All pitchers are evaluated as relievers aside from those who both reached 5 starts in a given season and qualified for DOM or DIS ratings.
A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2003 starts
B - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2002 starts
C - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2001 starts
X - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2003 starts
Y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2002 starts
Z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2001 starts
a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2003 relief outings
b - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2002 relief outings
c - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2001 relief outings
x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2003 relief outings
y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2002 relief outings
z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2001 relief outings
We'll continue tomorrow with this week's NL LPR article.
Today's Fantasy Rx: Of pitchers joining the AL in recent days, Jeff Suppan qualifies as the best option as he owns a current 5-start QA log of 34334 and moves from a park that increases runs by 10% to a league-average home field.
Scott Williamson, who played in one of the three best offensive parks in the majors in Cincinnati, should see a welcome drop in his qualitative marks, and while he shouldn't see many save opportunities with Boston, he looks quite useful, particularly in leagues that count holds.
Kurt Ainsworth is the most valuable long-term property, however he may not pitch again this year. Fellow new Oriole Damian Moss is the only other significant pitcher that switched to the AL, but his skill set should not translate favorably to pitching in Camden Yards. He owns a current 5-start QA log of 00243 and leaves one of the two best pitchers' parks in baseball for a field that generally allows over 10% more runs than PacBell. Moss' 9.5 H/9 and 4.9 BB/9 also should increase, and as he posted a .9 HR/9 on a 1.27 G-F this year in a park that reduces homers by nearly 40%, pitching in Camden Yards might cause his homer rate to double. Avoid Moss in most leagues unless you can grab him for a couple bucks as a keeper since he could cause severe qualitative damage to your team over the last two months of this year.
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