Today's Fantasy Rx

On our last day of discussing August trends, today I'm reviewing pitchers who, over the past three years, saw their ERA increase by at least 1.50 from July to August. We only looked at pitchers who compiled at least a total of 30 IP in both months over the past three years. They also must show an increase in ERA from July to August while registering at least 10 IP in both months in each of the last three years.

A few players qualified for today's list strictly due to their similar placement on last month's JulyFlys list. Instead of discussing them in detail again, I'll briefly summarize my current recommendations before continuing with new players.

Shigetoshi Hasegawa, RH Reliever, SEA: +3.04 ERA 
Yearly ERA increase between July and August:
2000: .60; 2001: 1.89; 2002: 5.86.
00-02	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
July	0/29	40.2	24/2	28:15	4-1/1	1.11
August	0/29	39	36/4	17:15	2-1/5	4.15

03Jul	0/8	9.1	7/0	2:2	0-0/5	0.00

Nearly half of Hasegawa's July strikeouts seem to turn into basehits in August, yet as he maintains his acceptable walk rate, variations in team defense likely account for most of his ERA trouble. While I'm concerned Seattle will slump if Pat Gillick once again fails to add an impact player, Hasegawa's value will fall under any circumstances with Sasaki likely to reclaim the closer's role within a week or two. Hasegawa certainly remains a valuable pitcher to own, however feel free to deal him if you can receive a fair return for one of the few middle relievers earning double-digit value thanks entirely to his qualitative contribution.

Mark Mulder, LH Starter, OAK: +2.67 ERA 
Yearly ERA increase between July and August:
2000: 4.55; 2001: 2.76; 2002: 1.43.
00-02	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
July	17/17	125.1	105/9	89:31	8-7/0	2.80
August	16/16	95.2	112/10	61:26	9-5/0	5.46

03Jul	5/5	38.2	29/4	37:5	3-2/0	2.33

Mulder's outstanding 1.2 BB/9 in July was barely half his mark in any previous month in 2003, and his 8.6 K/9 also looks much better than any other monthly strikeout rate this season. A 44354 QA log this month propelled him into the Cy Young hunt, and since he owns the best skills in Oakland's rotation, I expect him to fulfill our preseason prediction that he'd emerge as the best A's pitcher this year. While his ERA undoubtedly will rise this month, his excellent skills make more than minor and fleeting qualitative disturbances unlikely, so wait in the expectation he'll finish the year strongly.

John Burkett, RH Starter, BOS: +2.64 ERA 
Yearly ERA increase between July and August:
2000: 1.09; 2001: .80; 2002: 6.20.
00-02	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
July	13/15	89.2	87/10	77:29	7-4/0	3.31
August	16/17	87.2	107/9	66:34	3-6/0	5.95	

03Jul	5/5	29	31/2	20:10	2-1/0	4.03

Although Burkett's August ERA rise, fueled largely by a disastrous performance a year ago, appears due to a general decrease in skill, only his hit rate sharply jumps. We can attribute much of this difficulty to poor defense, although Burkett's skills already hardly suggest a dominant pitcher. Of course, a 51442 QA log this month assuages most of my worries, so unless you can't reserve him against the better offensive teams, I see no reason not to wait in the expectation that Burkett will contribute respectable qualitative stats and a decent number of wins.

Ismael Valdes, RH Starter, TEX: +2.54 ERA 
Yearly ERA increase between July and August:
2000: 2.01; 2001: 2.92; 2002: 2.45.
00-02	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
July	14/14	88.1	86/13	54:21	4-6/0	3.26
August	17/18	94.2	113/19	64:29	3-8/0	5.80

03Jul	5/5	25	34/5	7:7	1-3/0	6.48

Owning a Texas pitcher is risky under the best of circumstances. Valdes compiled a 1.0 K:BB this month, posted a 04030 QA log, and then hit the DL at the beginning of this week with patella tendinitis in his left knee. Deal or cut him as I see nothing here that suggests he merits ownership in 2003 as long as he remains injured and/or a Ranger.

Brian Anderson, LH Starter, CLE: +1.51 ERA 
Yearly ERA increase between July and August:
2000: 3.97; 2001: .16; 2002: .51.
00-02	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
July	17/17	116.1	110/20	65:21	3-6/0	3.87
August	15/17	83.2	110/16	35:14	3-5/0	5.38

03Jul	5/5	30	29/3	20:8	3-2/0	3.90

Although Anderson's August abnormalities appear insignificant aside from 2000 and he still isn't a particularly dominant pitcher, he looked great this July. A 34335 QA log and a 1.42 G-F suggest he should continue succeeding throughout August, and although he won't win too many games given Cleveland's inconsistent offense, Anderson belongs rostered in nearly every league. Look to acquire him, particularly if his current owner doesn't recognize his developing skills over the last several weeks.

Internet Challenge

The only players moved here were Aaron Boone, Williamson, and Ainsworth, and while we longer can employ Williamson as a closer, neither the situation of Boone nor Ainsworth changed. We'll reevaluate this team Sunday, but with only two player pick-ups left aside from roster expansion in three weeks, we see no need to make a move this weekend. As Morris and Oswalt both appear out until September, we're not anxious to spend our remaining moves.

SP(6)
Curt Schilling: Fri:@CHC(Ju.Cruz)
Mike Mussina: Fri:@OAK(T.Hudson)
Kevin Millwood: Fri:SD(K.Jarvis)
Roy Halladay: Fri:@ANA(Ru.Ortiz)

No starts: Randy, Pedro, Morris, Oswalt, Wood, Brown, Schmidt, Prior, Loaiza, and Ainsworth.

We're not too pleased with missing two starts, however our best categories are wins and ERA, so we'll deploy our strongest possible offense in addition to running Loaiza and Schmidt. We included Schmidt because we have a little bit of cap flexibility and he's the inexpensive starter we're most likely to deploy next week. Gagne obviously returns to our lineup to replace Williamson.

Offensively, we may look to upgrade Luis Castillo's spot, but he's looked decent lately, so we want to see how he'll perform this weekend. We'll bench Carl Everett with the White Sox in Seattle, Kearns remains seated, and then we can't quite find room for Helton, although we don't mind with Colorado in Pittsburgh.

The Umpire Hunter(11th lg; 279th overall)
Week 18b: August 1-August 3

C	Jorge Posada		1120
C	Toby Hall		460
1B	Aubrey Huff		610
1B	Erubiel Durazo		520
2B	Alfonso Soriano		1460
2B	Luis Castillo		1210 
3B	Aramis Ramirez		820
3B	Hank Blalock		500
SS	Nomar Garciaparra	1330
SS	Orlando Cabrera		1030
OF	Vlad Guerrero		2010
OF	Lance Berkman		1640
OF	Manny Ramirez		1610
OF	Preston Wilson		1220 
OF	Vernon Wells		750
OF	Hideki Matsui		750
DH	Alex Rodriguez		2010
DH	Aaron Boone		1010

SP	Curt Schilling		1610
SP	Mike Mussina		1210
SP	Kevin Millwood		1010
SP	Roy Halladay		890
SP	Jason Schmidt		790
SP	Esteban Loaiza		680
RP	Eric Gagne		1430
RP	Mike MacDougal		750
RP	Tim Worrell		740
RP	Matt Mantei		700

Total Salary for Week 18b: 	29870

Today's Fantasy Rx: The release of Kevin Appier by the Angels yesterday completely shocked us since while he isn't pitching too well, he's due a ton of money through next season. Feel free to pick him up once he signs with either Missouri team near his Kansas City home, but don't bid more than a few bucks since he isn't notably better than most of the current starters on the Cardinals and Royals.

Unfortunately Appier possesses more roto potential than the other pitchers that left their old teams yesterday. Joe Valentine barely looks ready for AAA given his 6.4 BB/9 at AAA Sacramento(PCL), and while Aaron Harang owns great upside, I don't envision him succeeding for the Reds this year. While he posted an excellent 60:17 K:BB in 69.2 IP with 62 H and 5 HR over 12 GS at Sacramento, his only solid skill in seven games with Oakland this year is a 2.7 BB/9. A 4.7 K/9, 12.2 H/9, 1.5 HR/9, and .77 G-F are unacceptable marks on a team like the Athletics that owns a decent defense and solid bullpen support. The combination of his hit and homer rates should cause his ERA to balloon in the GAB, particularly considering the Reds' radical changes over the past week will leave their lineup in flux for the rest of the season. He isn't someone you want to own in any standard league.