Today's Fantasy Rx

Today I'm reviewing pitchers who, over the past three years, saw their ERA drop by at least 1.50 from July to August. We only looked at pitchers who compiled at least a total of 30 IP in both months over the past three years. They also must show a drop in ERA from July to August while registering at least 10 IP in both months in each of the last three years.

Jon Garland, RH Starter, CHW: -2.61 ERA 
Yearly ERA decrease between July and August:
2000: 1.51; 2001: .60; 2002: 4.77.
00-02	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
July	10/21	71	74/11	37:39	4-6/1	5.96
August	14/14	83.1	86/9	49:34	4-4/0	3.35

03Jul	4/4	25.2	22/4	15:10	1-1/0	3.51

The 23-year-old looks right on schedule to experience moderate improvement this month given his increasingly impressive control and improving dominance, yet even if you dealt him a month ago per my recommendation, you only lost a win and a moderate qualitative boost. However he now owns a 44033 QA log over his last five starts, so while Garland still appears rather raw for someone nearing four years of experience, he certainly can contribute to fantasy teams in nearly any league. Garland starts tonight in Kansas City, and his next few starts should be at home against Kansas City and Oakland, on the road in Anaheim, at home against Anaheim and Texas, and then in Detroit. None of these teams should possess particularly impressive offenses when the Sox face them, so look to acquire Garland if you want to add a starting pitcher likely to contribute positive qualitative marks while also winning at least a half-dozen games.

Mike Hampton, LH Starter, ATL: -2.13 ERA 
Yearly ERA decrease between July and August:
2000: .77; 2001: 2.09; 2002: 2.78.
00-02	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
July	16/16	100.1	129/20	53:37	5-10/0	6.19
August	16/16	102	102/14	51:38	8-3/0	4.06

03Jul	6/6	38.1	54/5	23:12	4-1/0	6.10

Atlanta's wonderful offense severely skewed Hampton's record in his favor this month, however his respectable skill ratios of 5.4 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, and 1.2 HR/9 suggest we can attribute most of his problems to a Braves' defense that allowed him to post 12.7 H/9. As he never exceeded 9.6 H/9 in any of the three previous months this season, I expect his ERA to fall to below 4.50 just on the basis of better defensive support. Hampton posted an excellent 1.83 G-F in July, and with the Braves' infield healthy again, I expect vast improvement in his qualitative marks. Given his respectable 042432 QA log this month, he appears to own sufficient skills to emerge as a definite windfall for fantasy owners, making him an intriguing target to acquire from any owner focused on Hampton's 6.10 July ERA.

Matt Clement, RH Starter, CHC: -1.97 ERA 
Yearly ERA decrease between July and August:
2000: 4.20; 2001: .49; 2002: 1.24.
00-02	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
July	14/14	79.2	84/10	72:40	6-7/0	5.42
August	18/18	117.1	99/4	118:53	8-6/0	3.45

03Jul	6/6	43.1	22/5	35:15	3-2/0	2.29

While Clement's fantastic July partially obscures his 4.99 ERA in May and June, his 4.08 mark on the season might leave him on the trading block of some owners. Of course Clement posted 7.3 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 1.0 HR/9, 2.63 G-F, and an unbelievable 4.6 H/9 in July. His hit rate definitely will rise in August, but his other marks suggest he could post one of the most impressive second halves of any pitcher in the league. His 445534 QA log demonstrates his absolute dominance, so make every effort to acquire Clement now before his owners realize the folly of dangling him in any trade talks.

Todd Jones, RH Reliever, BOS: -1.89 ERA 
Yearly ERA decrease between July and August:
2000: 2.47; 2001: .32; 2002: 3.02.
00-02	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
July	0/36	41.1	36/7	41:18	1-2/8	4.14
August	0/39	40.0	43/1	38:11	1-3/9	2.25

03Jul	0/8	11	11/0	13:4	2-0/0	4.09

Jones' ERA looks far more commensurate with his skills now that he no longer plays home games at Coors, his home when I recommended you deal or cut him a month ago. A 10-11 G-F this month suggests his homer rate will rise over the next two months, however the Red Sox's recent moves give Boston's bullpen enough depth to keep Jones' ERA depressed thanks to their ability to deploy nearly a half-dozen stoppers competent at keeping baserunners from scoring. Although Jones isn't someone to target, feel free to acquire him as roster filler whenever needed since his qualitative numbers won't hurt you and he could vulture a couple wins every month.

Felix Rodriguez, RH Reliever, SF: -1.84 ERA 
Yearly ERA decrease between July and August:
2000: 1.43; 2001: .06; 2002: 4.65.
00-02	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
July	0/41	41.1	30/2	51:19	3-4/1	3.26
August	0/38	38	21/2	33:14	5-1/1	1.42

03Jul	0/13	10.1	11/0	6:4	2-0/1	.87

The Giants spend this weekend in Cincinnati and still face road trips to both Colorado and Houston, somewhat diminishing the positive effects for pitchers of playing at PacBell. At least FRod looks likely to stay in a San Francisco uniform despite repeated rumors of his involvement in potential trades. Unfortunately he missed his chance to begin closing this year and he doesn't possess the skills to give him double-digit upside as a middle reliever. His .86 G-F leaves him with a decent amount of qualitative risk, so while you should wait if you already own Rodriguez, I see no reason to target him in trades in anything other than sim leagues.

Today's Fantasy Rx: While the Diamondbacks' acquisition of Raul Mondesi might receive more press, Cincinnati's trade of Scott Williamson leaves the Reds' bullpen without an established closer since potential replacements Gabe White and Scott Sullivan both appear headed elsewhere in the near future. Unless they add a hard-throwing youngster in trade, John Riedling, Chris Reitsma, and Ryan Wagner should compete for saves, although we'd let Graves close in an attempt to regain some trade value.

Riedling may have the most experience in the pen, however he only owns a 4.07 ERA on a 21:20 K:BB in 31 IP over 21 G with 33 H and 3 HR. His 1.90 G-F on the year is quite promising, and he possesses historically impressive skills, yet a 242345333 QA log suggests little immediate upside. While Riedling should experience moderate success in a late-inning role, I don't see him securing the closer job.

Cincinnati chose Ryan Wagner with the 14th pick of this year's draft. He debuted at AA Chattanooga(SL), posting a 1-0 record and 0.00 ERA on a 6:2 K:BB in 5 IP over 5 G with 2 H and 0 HR, immediately followed by a stint at AAA Louisville(IL) where Wagner registered an 0-1 record and 4.50 ERA on a 4:0 K:BB in 4 IP with 5 H, 0 HR, and a 2-3 G-F. The 21-year-old only has allowed one baserunner in his three games since his promotion while compiling a 8:0 K:BB in 5 IP with 1 H, however I don't know if the Reds are willing to completely debunk the closer myth by letting Wagner close for two months. Consider him in the running for saves, albeit not the primary option.

Now that Cincinnati realizes he hasn't demonstrated the stamina to remain in the rotation, Chris Reitsma should emerge as the Reds' closer given his successful work out of the bullpen this year. In 28 games of out of the bullpen, Reitsma owns a 3.29 ERA on a 25:10 K:BB in 38.1 IP with 36 H, 5 HR, and a 1.75 G-F that makes him as good a choice as Riedling given Cincinnati's new hitter-friendly stadium. Reitsma's obviously far superior control, and his current 10-game QA log of 5554344225 suggest significant immediate upside. If you're going to invest more than a few bucks in a Reds' reliever, bank on Riedling while trying to nab Wagner with a secondary bid.