Today's Fantasy Rx

Note: The beginning of most stat lines includes the following data: H/AB for BA/OBP/SLG.

Anaheim: Adam Kennedy, 2B
56/229 for .245/.319/.323 with 4 HR, 24 RBI, 32 R, 11/16 SB%,
and a 23:42 BB:K.

Although Kennedy seems recovered from his early injury, we've seen OPS drop at least 64 points in every month since April. Fortunately he continues to demonstrate fantasy upside despite his limited utility to the Angels given his woeful OBP. A 69% stolen base success rate isn't terrible, and both his 3.84 #P/PA and .59 G-F rank as easy career-best marks. Most impressively, Kennedy's .10 walk rate is nearly double his previous high of .056 in 2001, and his .82 contact rate is only slightly off his .83 mark a year ago, albeit nowhere near the .86 he averaged the previous two seasons. The best news here is that Kennedy only turned 27 in January, and if his improving power and plate discipline continue as he enters his peak years, we could see his value surge past $20 again even without a great BA. You likely should wait on him at the moment given his monthly trends, however I see significant upside here if you can add him at a bargain price.

June Underachiever: Darin Erstad, OF
Old stats: 26/86 for .302/.371/.384 with 2 HR, 8 RBI, 20 R, 3/4 SB%,
and an 8:8 BB:K.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 27/117 for .231 with 1 HR, 7 RBI, 9 R, 4/4 SB%,
and a 7:7 BB:K.

Previous Underachievers: April: David Eckstein; May: Scott Spiezio.

Baltimore: Brook Fordyce, C
46/171 for .269/.311/.339 with 2 HR, 9 RBI, 15 R, 1/2 SB%,
and an 11:27 BB:K.

Although Fordyce should depart the Orioles when his outlandish three-year expires after the season, he's their new starting catcher now that Baltimore finally demoted the increasingly offensively inept Geronimo Gil. Fordyce hasn't possessed much fantasy value since the White Sox dealt him to the Orioles in the Charles Johnson deal in 2000, however his skills finally rebounded this year to give him some upside. His ground-fly ratio, which jumped to 1.21 and then 2.07 following a career-best .85 in 2000, looks much better at the current 1.14 G-F, and a 3.60 #P/PA indicates he possesses marginally better patience than in past years. Unfortunately I don't expect him to post an overly helpful BA, although his power potential makes him an acceptable catcher to acquire if you're looking to add a little power at an otherwise weak position.

June Underachiever: David Segui, DH
Old stats: 44/154 for .286/.368/.396 with 3 HR, 17 RBI, 19 R, 1/1 SB%,
and a 19:32 BB:K.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 12/61 for .197 with 2 HR, 8 RBI, 5 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 5:12 BB:K.

Previous Underachievers: April: Gary Matthews, Jr.; May: Deivi Cruz.

Boston: Todd Walker, 2B
107/379 for .282/.330/.412 with 8 HR, 51 RBI, 61 R, 1/2 SB%,
and a 30:38 BB:K.

Hyped as Boston's most significant off-season acquisition and an ideal #2 hitter, Walker hasn't posted an OBP this low since experiencing Tom Kelly's rookie hazing in 1997. Ironically, his respectable BA gives him marginal value when coupled with his decent power production, however a .08 walk rate is still unacceptable in this offense even when accompanied by a .90 contact rate. His patience rests at 3.60 #P/PA after peaking at 3.99 only two years ago, although at least a career-best .97 G-F suggests he'll maintain this level of quantitative production. Walker even hits as poorly against righties as lefties this year, so I see no rationale why Grady Little didn't start Freddy Sanchez more consistently. Of course, Walker's meager contribution to Boston's offense doesn't limit his roto value, making him a decent candidate to acquire if you want to improve your middle infield.

June Underachiever: Jeremy Giambi, DH/OF
Old stats: 18/102 for .176/.333/.373 with 5 HR, 13 RBI, 13 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 22:30 BB:K.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 3/10 for .300 with 0 HR, 2 RBI, 1 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 4:6 BB:K.

Previous Underachievers: April: David Ortiz; May: Johnny Damon.

Chicago White Sox: Carlos Lee, OF
94/357 for .263/.313/.445 with 15 HR, 60 RBI, 46 R, 8/10 SB%,
and a 24:61 BB:K.

We tabbed Lee as a likely candidate to develop into a superstar this year based on several positive skill trends, yet the sudden reversal of growth suggests he'll post nearly identical roto stats for the third straight season. He's seen one .25 less pitches per at bat and hitting nearly two-thirds more groundballs while losing 56% of his walk rate and even 3% of his contact rate. A .196/.265/.293 line against southpaws suggest his primary problem is an inability to hit left-handers, a weird reverse platoon split that limits his value even more on a team where Brian Daubach, Aaron Rowand, and Tony Graffanino all struggle to find at-bats. However Lee remains a relatively productive fantasy player, so wait with him on your roster in the hope that he'll rediscover his hidden offensive abilities this half.

June Underachiever: Magglio Ordonez, OF
Old stats: 68/253 for .269/.335/.482 with 12 HR, 39 RBI, 32 R, 6/8 SB%,
and a 21:35 BB:K.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 40/110 for .364 with 6 HR, 18 RBI, 23 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 13:12 BB:K.

Previous Underachievers: April: Paul Konerko; May: Joe Crede.

Cleveland: Johnny Peralta, SS
14/63 for .222/.279/.286 with 0 HR, 4 RBI, 5 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 4:19 BB:K.

Vizquel's injury and Brandon Phillips' demotion leave Peralta starting at shortstop while John McDonald covers second base. He looked like an intriguing prospect during the off-season after posting a .281/.343/.457 with a 45:97 BB:K in 470 at-bats last year at AA Akron(EL) as a 20-year-old, yet he only managed a .257/.310/.329 on a 15:45 BB:K in 237 at-bats at AAA Buffalo(IL) before his promotion to Cleveland. Now his .256 G-F and .70 contact rate definitely concern me, however a 4.19 #P/PA is outstanding for a 21-year-old debuting in the majors, and a .06 walk rate also isn't too horrible. Owners in keeper leagues should try to stash Peralta at a low salary, and you should try to acquire even in single-season contests if you need roster filler in the middle infield.

June Underachiever: Brandon Phillips, 2B
Old stats: 43/207 for .208/.241/.309 with 4 HR, 19 RBI, 22 R, 3/5 SB%,
and an 8:40 BB:K.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 20/93 for .215 with 0 HR, 5 RBI, 8 R, 1/1 SB%,
and a 4:16 BB:K before a July 15th demotion to the minors.

Previous Underachievers: April: Matt Lawton; May: Karim Garcia.

Detroit: Ramon Santiago, SS/2B
55/244 for .225/.296/.283 with 1 HR, 7 RBI, 24 R, 4/6 SB%,
and a 19:39 BB:K.

A sub-.300 OBP should drive any prospect back to the minors, yet Santiago remains a starter in Detroit thanks to the Tigers' woeful lack of alternatives. He owns a troublesome 3.32 #P/PA and 2.00 G-F, yet even though he stole 34 bases in 42 attempts only two years ago, his speed disappeared during his rapid rise to the majors last season and still hasn't returned. With no power potential or plate discipline, all a .84 contact rate suggests is that Santiago's average should inch higher. I see no other evidence that he can contribute to fantasy teams, so you should hope rebuilding owners don't realize he lacks much immediate upside as you try to deal him now.

June Underachiever: Bobby Higginson, OF
Old stats: 56/228 for .246/.340/.346 with 4 HR, 23 RBI, 31 R, 7/12 SB%,
and a 32:34 BB:K.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 7/40 for .175 with 1 HR, 0 RBI, 5 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 5:9 BB:K before hitting the DL on July 4th.

Previous Underachievers: April: Dmitri Young; May: Carlos Pena.

Kansas City: Dee Brown, OF
19/80 for .238/.291/.363 with 2 HR, 10 RBI, 11 R, 0/1 SB%,
and a 4:20 BB:K.

Although Brown returned on Saturday from a DL trip for a sprained wrist, he displayed few big league skills prior to his injury. Both his 3.77 #P/PA and 1.22 G-F are much worse than the 4.15 #P/PA and .47 G-F he posted a year ago, yet an increase to a .75 contact rate isn't enough to compensate for his weak .05 walk rate. Brown appears to need a change of scenery since the division-leading Royals simply don't have room to give him a couple hundred at-bats. So unless they move him in the near future, deal or cut Brown anywhere you own him.

June Underachiever: Ken Harvey, DH/1B
Old stats: 40/180 for .222/.281/.356 with 5 HR, 23 RBI, 17 R, 0/0 SB%,
and an 11:42 BB:K.
Recommendation: deal or cut.
Stats since recommendation: 37/118 for .314 with 4 HR, 21 RBI, 16 R, 1/3 SB%,
and 6:24 BB:K.

Previous Underachievers: April: Mike Sweeney; May: Joe Randa.

We'll continue tomorrow with National League underachieving batters.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Players who underachieve for a few months in a row such as Adam Kennedy often find themselves with reduced playing time. If you're concerned about meeting a minimum at-bat requirement due to a couple of underachievers on your roster, look to add an established starting position player at another position to offset your likely lost at-bats.