Today's Fantasy Rx

Note: For those of you unfamiliar with FAAB, each team normally begins with $100 to spend throughout the year on all free agent pickups. Most injury replacements or speculative picks go for a buck or two, hot starters go for $5-$10, top prospects go in the $10-$30 range, and we've seen $90+ bids on top players traded into the league.

Arizona: Billy Martin, 1B/OF
88/262 for .336/.425/.542 with 9 HR, 53 RBI, 43 R, 1/1 SB%,
and a 37:58 BB:K between AA El Paso(TL) and AAA Tucson(PCL).

We've seen several Sidewinders already make significant contributions in Arizona on both sides of the ball and only the Hillenbrand trade keeps Tracy in the minors, however we still could see a couple more Diamondbacks' youngsters emerge in Phoenix this year. The 27-year-old Martin just reached Tucson a month ago, yet he owns a .978 OPS in AAA that even exceeds his impressive AA marks. Martine posted a .410+ OBP and .540+ SLG in two years of A-ball in 2000 and 2001, but a terrible season at AA in 2002 dropped him off the few prospect charts that recognized his upside. Now he looks like a future cog in Arizona's lineup who could improve the offense at right field or even first base. Look for Martin to reach the majors if Arizona doesn't add a bat by the trading deadline, and certainly FAAB him for several bucks as he should post helpful numbers in every category save stolen bases.

Previously discussed 2003 NL hitting prospects: May: Alex Cintron; June: Chad Tracy.

Atlanta: Jesse Garcia, 29, SS
90/288 for .313/.337/.372 with 0 HR, 22 RBI, 29 R, 20/26 SB%,
and a 9:34 BB:K at AAA Richmond(IL).

If the Braves need an infielder this season, I suspect they'll overlook Garcia's lack of power and plate discipline in favor his .300+ BA, promising steal total, and ability to field nearly any position aside from catcher. Of course Garcia shouldn't start in the majors, and he offers little to fantasy owners unless you're desperate for any MIF production. You likely should ignore any call-up of Garcia, however he likely wouldn't hurt you as roster filler for a brief period if needed.

Previously discussed 2003 NL hitting prospects: May: Donzell McDonald; June: Johnny Estrada.

Chicago Cubs: Trenidad Hubbard, 37, OF
83/258for .322/.406/.411 with 4 HR, 19 RBI, 40 R, 11/20 SB%,
and a 35:20 BB:K at AAA Iowa(PCL).

Corey Patterson's season-ending injury exposes the lack of Cubs' centerfield depth, yet while Dave Kelton is attempting to quickly learn centerfield, Hubbard is the short-term roster replacement and potential platoonmate for Tom Goodwin. Hubbard owns a career .381 OBP in over 1400 minor league games, and he possesses a little power and decent speed. A .78 contact rate with San Diego last year led to a .209 BA in 129 at-bats, but he could perform better if given regular playing time. Unfortunately I don't see him finding that opportunity in Chicago, so you likely should ignore Hubbard since he offers more to a major league team than a fantasy squad.

Previously discussed 2003 NL hitting prospects: May: Midre Cummings; June: Dave Kelton.

Cincinnati: Ruben Mateo, 25, OF
10/50 for .200/.273/.280 with 1 HR, 4 RBI, 2 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 4:13 BB:K.
64/201 for .318/.403/.498 with 8 HR, 46 RBI, 32 R, 3/4 SB%,
and a 25:33 BB:K at AAA Louisville(IL).

I cannot believe that Mateo cleared waivers two months ago considering he only turned 25 this February and so many teams appear desperate for any outfielder with offensive upside capable of handling centerfield. He obviously doesn't belong on a team with Griffey, Dunn, Kearns, Jose Guillen, and Steve Smitherman, however a smart GM would grab Mateo for a AAAA pitcher now, let him finish the year in the minors, and then let him compete for a starting job next spring. Mateo still possess considerable long-term promise, and any team would be lucky to own him, especially considering his plate discipline development at Louisville. A low FAAB bid here could net you a $20 player next season under the right circumstances, and I definitely would try to nab him if available.

Previously discussed 2003 NL hitting prospects: May: Jacob Cruz; June: Brandon Larson.

Colorado: Rene Reyes, 25, OF
118/344 for .343/.378/.468 with 5 HR, 45 RBI, 54 R, 10/16 SB%,
and a 19:49 BB:K at AAA Colorado Springs(PCL).

The Rockies likely will trade Jay Payton within the next month, and while Ben Petrick might receive another call-up, I expect Colorado wants a look at Reyes to see if he can maintain his AAA averages in the majors. While he no longer possesses the speed he displayed by stealing 53 bases at A Ashville(Sal) in 2001, he's third in the PCL in batting average thanks to leading the league in hits, and while the Rockies would like decent secondary numbers, Reyes should develop power in the near future. Certainly spend several bucks of FAAB if Colorado gives him a starting job since he could approach double-digit value by posting a .300 BA over the last two months of the season.

Previously discussed 2003 NL hitting prospects: May: Garrett Atkins; June: Raul Casanova.

Florida: Derek Wathan, 26, 1B/UT
77/254 for .303/.362/.429 with 2 HR, 33 RBI, 38 R, 14/18 SB%,
and a 23:30 BB:K at AAA Albuquerque(PCL).

Miguel Cabrera's promotion leaves the Marlins rather barren of position prospects meriting promotion to the majors any time soon. Aside from Stratton and Wood, Wathan looks like a possible call-up since he possesses good speed, solid averages, and the ability to field any position save catcher. Essentially he looks somewhat similar to Andy Fox except for possessing enough offensive upside to merit regular work at first base. I don't expect Wathan to start regularly in the majors any time soon, and you should ignore him this year, but if he replaces Fox on Florida next year, he could earn a few bucks as a steal-happy reserve.

Previously discussed 2003 NL hitting prospects: May: Rob Stratton; June: Jason Wood.

Houston: Jason Lane, 26, OF
46/164 for .280/.376/.451 with 5 HR, 26 RBI, 25 R, 1/2 SB%,
and a 26:14 BB:K at AAA New Orleans(PCL).

Nagging injuries allowed Colin Porter to receive the first call-up among Zephyr outfielders this year, but Lane now looks healthy and ready to start in the majors. His .16 walk rate and .91 contact rate both are excellent marks and welcome improvements from a year ago, and only the contracts of Berkman, Biggio, and Hidalgo keep him from a deserved job in Houston. I wish the Astros would include him this month in a trade for starting pitching, however we expect Houston to promote Lane later this year, let him spend next year as a fourth outfielder, and then replace either Biggio or Hidalgo in 2005. Lane certainly merits a few bucks of FAAB whenever he returns to the big leagues, however you shouldn't expect him to break double-digit value in the near future.

Previously discussed 2003 NL hitting prospects: May: Eric Bruntlett; June: Raul Chavez.

Los Angeles: Chin-Feng Chen, 25, OF/1B
97/328 for .296/.374/.500 with 13 HR, 54 RBI, 58 R, 6/9 SB%,
and a 42:73 BB:K at AAA Las Vegas(PCL).

LoDuca and Dave Ross should keep Koyie Hill and his .358 BA in the minors at least until September, making Chen the next likely offensive call-up once Wilkin Ruan stumbles as I expect. We're seeing real skill growth from Chen as his .13 walk rate, .78 contact rate, and .500 SLG are the best combination of offensive marks he's ever posted. Chen even is stealing bases regularly for the first time since 2000, and he should compete with Bubba Crosby, Chad Hermansen, and Ruan for Brian Jordan's vacant starting spot. Hope that Chen's post-hype status makes him less attractive to other owners since you should be able to FAAB him for only a few bucks.

Previously discussed 2003 NL hitting prospects: May: Bubba Crosby; June: Chad Hermansen.

Milwaukee: Jim Rushford, 29, 1B/OF
81/278 for .291/.362/.410 with 7 HR, 37 RBI, 37 R, 5/5 SB%,
and a 26:31 BB:K between AAA Oklahoma(PCL) and AAA Indianapolis(IL).

If the Brewers don't obtain an outfield prospect in exchange for John Vander Wal, I expect they'll recall Rushford. Texas released him after he posted a .190/.271/.262 at AAA Oklahoma(PCL) over the first four weeks of the season, however his .335/.403/.474 since rejoining Milwaukee should leave him first in line when the team next needs a bat. Of course I doubt he'll emerge as more than Brady Clark's platoonmate in right field at best, so only teams needy for an upgrade of their last outfield slots shouldn't ignore Rushford.

Previously discussed 2003 NL hitting prospects: May: Joe Lawrence; June: Keith Luuloa.

Montreal: Val Pascucci, 24, OF/1B
82/286 for .287/.431/.462 with 10 HR, 58 RBI, 48 R, 2/3 SB%,
and a 68:84 BB:K at AAA Edmonton(PCL).

Pascucci doesn't offer quite as much upside as Sledge due to his lack of speed and .10 lower contact rate, however he offers a definite upgrade to the Expos at first base. He hit 27 homers last year while repeating AA, yet he also has increased his homer total every year of his career, although the trend might end this season unless he can maintain a recent power surge. I'm definitely concerned that his contact rate seems to fall every year, especially when he lacks any obvious tools aside from his great .24 walk rate. Hopefully Montreal will move him to an organization that will overlook his faults, however I won't be surprised if he winds up a latter-day Fernando Seguignol if the Expos start shifting him between AAA and a bench job in the majors. Ignore Pascucci unless he finds regular playing time somewhere since you can't risk owning the terrible BA I expect him to post if teams limit him to mostly pinch-hitting in the majors.

Previously discussed 2003 NL hitting prospects: May: Terrmel Sledge; June: Pete Bergeron.

New York Mets: Daniel Garcia, 23, 2B
97/315 for .308/.367/.438 with 4 HR, 50 RBI, 48 R, 8/10 SB%,
and a 25:45 BB:K between AA Binghamton(EL) and AAA Norfolk(IL).

Moneyball gave Garcia national publicity as an A-ball prospect requested in trade by Billy Beane and Paul DePodesta after they literally found his name while looking over the stats of everyone in the Mets' system. A year later, Garcia looks like the Mets' future at second base thanks to posting a .333/.391/.530 in 117 at-bats at AA before earning a promotion. In 79 games at second this year, Garcia only has committed 11 errors, and while he doesn't demonstrate much immediate power upside, smacking 34 doubles last season and another 23 so far this year gives him intriguing power potential. Only allocate a few bucks of FAAB on Garcia right now, but he should emerge as a consistent double-digit performer as soon as 2004.

Previously discussed 2003 NL hitting prospects: May: Marcos Scutaro; June: Jose Reyes.

Philadelphia: Jesse Levis, 35, C
48/176 for .273/.309/.335 with 0 HR, 18 RBI, 15 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 10:8 BB:K at AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre(IL).

The Phillies lack any interesting AAA bats aside from Utley and Chapman, however both Lieberthal and Pratt are perennial injury risks, so I suspect we'll see Levis in the majors sometime after the break. Although he owns no power or speed upside, his consistently excellent plate discipline usually allows him to post a respectable BA. Feel free to spend a minimum amount of FAAB on him if you need a catcher unlikely to hurt you even though he won't exceed a couple bucks of value under any circumstances.

Previously discussed 2003 NL hitting prospects: May: Chase Utley; June: Travis Chapman.

Pittsburgh: J.J. Davis, 24, OF
82/305 for .269/.324/.515 with 18 HR, 45 RBI, 49 R, 16/17 SB%,
and a 26:58 BB:K at AAA Nashville(PCL).

Tike Redman should reach the majors as soon as Pittsburgh deals Kenny Lofton, however if they want to add a power bat after likely dealing Reggie Sanders, Davis deserves a call-up. After two years at AA Altoona(EL) where he averaged a .09 walk rate and .69 contact rate, he still owns a .09 walk rate but now possesses an .81 contact rate. That improvement should allow him to keep his BA above .250 in the majors, and I'm also pleased to see that he's holding a .500+ SLG. He doesn't offer as much fantasy upside as Redman, however Davis also merits a few bucks of your FAAB as he could join Redman and Brian Giles in Pittsburgh's outfield for the next few years.

Previously discussed 2003 NL hitting prospects: May: Tike Redman; June: Carlos Rivera.

San Diego: Khalil Greene, 23, SS
104/359 for .290/.342/.448 with 8 HR, 40 RBI, 35 R, 3/7 SB%,
and a 20:80 BB:K between AA Mobile(SL) and AAA Portland(PCL).

The likely trade of Rondell White should open a spot for Jason Bay or Mark Quinn, however Greene's potential call-up is the most anticipated move here. He improved every average by at least 40 points following his promotion from AA, and he also only has committed 13 errors in 85 games at shortstop. Unfortunately his .06 walk rate and .78 contact rate indicate Greene needs to spend at least the rest of this season in the minors, so if a Loretta trade prompts Greene's debut, owners in single-season leagues should ignore him. Greene still merits significant attention in keeper leagues, but he'll surprise me if he earns anything above five bucks in 2003.

Previously discussed 2003 NL hitting prospects: May: Jason Bay; June: Mario Valdez.

San Francisco: Clay Bellinger, 34, 3B/UT
64/244 for .262/.311/.484 with 13 HR, 40 RBI, 36 R, 1/3 SB%,
and a 16:52 BB:K at AAA Fresno(PCL).

Lance Niekro, Tony Torcato, Todd Linden, and Ellison all could reach the majors at some point this year, but none of them have impressed me as much as Bellinger, who leads Fresno in home runs. He's played at least 2 games this season at every position, including catcher, while committing only five errors, and given his status as the Yankees' former playoff good luck charm, he might join San Francisco for the stretch drive. Of course he lacks the skills to contribute offensively at any position and he really belong in the minors, so fantasy owners definitely want to ignore Bellinger if he reappears in the majors.

Previously discussed 2003 NL hitting prospects: May: Jason Ellison; June: Brian Dallimore.

St. Louis: John Gall, 25, 1B/OF
99/331 for 299/.345/.465 with 13 HR, 61 RBI, 43 R, 1/2 SB%,
and a 24:36 BB:K between AA Tennessee(SL) and AAA Memphis(PCL).

If the Cardinals need to add another outfielder at some point and again overlook Nunnally, Gall looks like the best choice, particularly if they want to replace Eduardo Perez. St. Louis demoted Gall to AA after a slow start, but he posted a .327/.357/.519 line in 12 games to earn his way back to Memphis, and now he again appears one of the better hitting prospects in the system. Unfortunately he lacks the offensive upside to develop into anything more than a platoon outfielder, and I don't expect him ever to receive more than a couple hundred at-bats in a Cardinals' uniform. Ignore Gall unless he receives an extended starting opportunity in another uniform.

Previously discussed 2003 NL hitting prospects: May: Jon Nunnally; June: Bo Hart.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Voting for the 32nd All-Star in each league ends tomorrow, Wednesday July 9th, at 6pm (EDT). Unfortunately the injury to Corey Patterson leaves only a few worthy players on a ballot that does nothing to rectify the egregious snubs of Hideo Nomo and Mike Mussina, along with deserving starters like Milton Bradley. Fortunately, Frank Thomas, currently the 13th most valuable hitter in the game, is a worthy choice on an AL ballot that also offers a chance to borderline All-Stars like Jason Giambi, Eric Byrnes, and Jason Varitek. The choice is more complicated in the NL, where Luis Castillo and Geoff Jenkins barely deserve any consideration, and Benito Santiago and Kenny Lofton don't rank among the top half-dozen players at their respective positions. Of course, Orlando Cabrera only ranks slightly behind Rafael Furcal among NL shortstops, and while Alex Gonzalez also merited recognition on this ballot, Cabrera definitely belongs on the All-Star team. Please vote for Frank Thomas and Orlando Cabrera by tomorrow evening.