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June
27th
2003
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
Rotohelp
AL LPR through 13 Weeks
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Please check here for a complete description of these rankings. We've included the five most recent 2003 QA scores for each starter, along with the 10 most recent QA scores for each reliever, tabulating all data through June 25th.


1
23BCYZ - Pedro Martinez(44503)
3ABCXZ - Roger Clemens(24545)
ABX - Sir Sidney Ponson(35355)
AX - Esteban Loiaza(35445)

23abcxyz - Arthur Rhodes(5545343443)
2abxy - LaTroy Hawkins(2444425434)
abcxyz - Jason Grimsley(3340534544)
ac - Aaron Fultz(3423325445)
ax - Danys Baez(5255545445)
ay - Scot Shields(2404455422)
Travis Harper(4333341403)

Baez and Hawkins both moved up here this week, however for the first time in a while, no one slipped off our top ranking. A pitching staff of Pedro, Clemens, Ponson, Loaiza, Baez, Rhodes, Hawkins, Shields, and Grimsley likely would give you excellent marks in the qualitative categories, wins, and strikeouts, and you likely could have acquired all these guys for around $80-85. While Grimsley, Fultz, and Harper slightly concern me, I see no problem in rostering or targeting any of these pitchers in any standard league.


2
3ABCXYZ - Roy Halladay(54555)
3ACY - Mark Mulder(43034)
Abcyz - Byung-Hyun Kim(23423)

3abcxyz - Mariano Rivera(3354454544)
3bcyz - Buddy Groom(4332241054)
abcxyz - Keith Foulke(4354235432)
abcxy - Chad Bradford(4444444432)
bcyz - Ricardo Rincon(4351514255)
abx - Damaso Marte(4334431231)
aby - Francisco Cordero(4544231242)
bcy - Alan Embree(3413553433)

Bradford's extended string of 4 appearances ended, however aside from Cordero experiencing some problems, nothing really changed here. While I'm concerned about Mulder's diminished upside, the only pitcher here I don't endorse owning is Buddy Groom.


3
ABCXYZ - Tim Hudson(30245)
AX - Mike Mussina(33343)
A - Joel Pineiro(35443)
C - Kevin Appier(44311)
C - John Burkett(33014)
Freddy Garcia(43443)

bcyz - Steve Karsay
bcyz - Bob Wickman
by - Cliff Politte(4334332525)
cz - Ramiro Mendoza(2412035521)

Hudson looks solid right now, yet the best pitchers here, unsurprisingly, are Mariners' starters Pineiro and Garcia; if you need wins or even just qualitative help, see if you can pry one of them in trade.


A
Cab - Kelvim Escobar(40454)
X - Ismael Valdes(33444)
Adam Bernero(44440)
Kyle Lohse(53452)
Gil Meche(52245)
Joaquin Benoit(50401)

Escobar ranks with the best starters in the league right now, and as he'll likely face Baltimore and Detroit in the near future, target him if you need a starting pitcher. Danny Wright drops off the list, although I'm most disappointed in Bernero's 0 after five straight 4 starts.


B
Ycz - Derek Lowe(43352)
YZ - Tim Wakefield(40053)
Y - Mark Buehrle(43503)
Y - Jeff Weaver(13331)
Z - Andy Pettitte(05504)
Bartolo Colon(43443)
Rodrigo Lopez(31303)
Casey Fossum(45210)
Ryan Rupe(32)

Mickey Callaway(4453145332)

Fossum's DL trip makes Rupe an intriguing buy, however the two players to target here remain Buehrle and Colon, as both seem somewhat undervalued and might be obtained at a bargain price.


C
Z - Chan Ho Park(33300)
Z - Jon Lieber
Cory Lidle(45314)
John Thomson(23350)
Jake Westbrook(42544433)

Zx - Brandon Lyon(4253443343)

While Bauer left this week's list, Lyon continues to pitch impressively and merits attention if his current owner recognizes that he won't save too many more games for the Red Sox.


X
Y - David Wells(33244)
Jeremi Gonzalez(34323)

Moyer's inconsistency leaves Wells and Gonzalez alone here, however if Gonzalez is somehow available in your league, look to add him soon.


Y
cz - Victor Zambrano(34434)

We're quite impressed by Zambrano's performance since returning to the majors, and while neither he nor Jeremi Gonzalez are great bargains, both should help any team in standard leagues.


Z
Jon Garland(35053)
Barry Zito(42233)


a
bcxyz - Mike Timlin(5444445542)
bcxyz - Tom Gordon(4444234334)
bcxyz - Kazuhiro Sasaki(4555334543)
bcxz - Jim Mecir(4352444444)
bcxz - Jeff Nelson(315445353)
bcyz - Billy Koch(4523423334)
bcyz - Troy Percival(4534422542)
bxy - Eddie Guardado(4443424402)

Note that Mecir has taken over the string of 4 appearances from Bradford, suggesting he's fully recovered from his health problems.

bc - Kelly Wunsch(4444303034)
bx - Brendan Donnelly(3335345343)
bx - Brian Shouse(3243344344)
cx - David Riske(4442444424)
xy - Jorge Julio(2355443244)
b - Scott Schoeneweis(4342203544)
x - Aquilino Lopez(4335244435)
x - Jason Shiell(2453442354)
x - B.J. Ryan(5443402044)
x - Mike MacDougal(4343344523)
z - Sean Lowe(2453352451)
Chris Spurling(4441443343)
Franklyn German(5305434415)
Mike Neu(4224524322)

Only good news here as Shouse, Schoeneweis, Shiell, and Ryan all move up while no one drops off.


b
y - Omar Daal(44033)
y - Brian Anderson(14305)
y - Jeremy Affeldt(24303)
y - Mark Hendrickson(33003)

cyz - Ugueth Urbina(3454312333)
cyz - Rick White(2020544434)
yz - Ben Weber(3242445333)
yz - Gary Glover(1322331043)
yz - Mike Fetters(43344)
y - Chris Hammond(4254344434)
y - J.C. Romero(4414140330)
y - Al Reyes(35322233)
Julio Mateo(4421430344)
Travis Driskill(2230132434)
Juan Acevedo(4330233322)


c
yz - Jeff Tam(4335135232)
z - Dan Miceli(3455554114)
z - Willis Roberts(0343445523)
z - Al Levine(3423525224)
z - Kris Wilson(3423324353)
z - Rudy Seanez(3325050)
z - Chad Fox(2413455332)
z - Danny Patterson
z - Jeff Zimmerman
Tanyon Sturtze(4234453225)
Giovanni Carrara(0342232423)

No real changes here other than the two bad outings from Miceli dropped him one spot.


x
z - Shigetoshi Hasegawa(4524443335)
z - Mike Venafro(2444324333)
Scott Service(5332334344)
Francisco Rodriguez(1355333343)

Steve Avery(3413333044)
Hasegawa and Venafro drop to here as Boyd and Dickey slip off the list completely. The only good news is that Scott Service continues to pitch decently after switching leagues, making him a viable candidate of you need roster filler.


y
Johan Santana(444 as a starter)
Dave Elder(4401)


z
Jay Powell(2223330244)
Mark Wohlers


AL starters I recommend despite their failure to appear above include Jeremy Bonderman(40334), Nate Cornejo(34322), Jason Davis(33414), Ryan Franklin(23342), John Lackey(42453), Mike Maroth(24033), Ramon Ortiz(41433), Brad Radke(04432), Kyle Snyder(14153), Jarrod Washburn(42411), and Danny Wright(04043).

Other decent relievers include D.J. Carrasco, Lance Carter, Jesus Colome, and Michael Nakamura.


We modified these ratings slightly since posting our team-by-team LPR scores in January. By reworking the A-Z and a-z ratings, we now can easily identify effective starters rather than looking for truly dominant performers, of which we only found a few pitchers in any of the previous few seasons.

1 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2003.
2 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2002.
3 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2001.


QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score.

Note: Starters must pitch in five games before scoring DOM or DIS ratings; relievers must appear in no less than 10 games before earning DOM/DIS consideration. All pitchers are evaluated as relievers aside from those who both reached 5 starts in a given season and qualified for DOM or DIS ratings.

A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2003 starts
B - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2002 starts
C - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2001 starts

X - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2003 starts
Y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2002 starts
Z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2001 starts

a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2003 relief outings
b - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2002 relief outings
c - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2001 relief outings

x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2003 relief outings
y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2002 relief outings
z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2001 relief outings


We'll continue tomorrow with this week's NL LPR article.


Today's Fantasy Rx: Several teams either have started or soon will begin churning at least a couple lineup and/or roster spots in an attempt to find productive players. If you're still employing seriously struggling players, be aware guys like Paul Konerko and Edgardo Alfonzo may lose playing time even though they possess solid track records.


Click here to read the previous article.

Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
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