Today's Fantasy Rx

Continuing with our second day of examination of July trends, I'll review hitters who, over the past three years, lose at least .050 BA and .100 OPS from June to July. I focused on players who compiled 100 AB in both June and July over the past three years.

A few players qualified for today's list strictly due to a rebound from their placement on last month's Junebugs list. Instead of discussing them in detail again, I'll briefly summarize my current recommendations before continuing with new players.

A.J. Pierzynski, C, MIN: -.100 BA/-.328 OPS. June: acquire.
July: wait.

Paul Konerko, 1B, CHW: -.085 BA/-.323 OPS. June: acquire.
July: acquire.

Jeff Kent, 2B, HOU: -.105 BA/-.299 OPS. June: acquire.
July: wait.

Dan Wilson, C, SEA: -.084 BA/-.238 OPS. June: wait.
July: deal or cut.

Ken Griffey, Jr., OF, CIN: -.051 BA/-.230 OPS. June: acquire.
July: wait.

Larry Walker, OF, COL: -.064 BA/-.202 OPS. June: wait.
July: wait.

Bobby Abreu, OF, PHI: -.068 BA/-.164 OPS. June: wait.
July: wait.

Jeff Cirillo, 3B, SEA: -.119 BA; -.317 OPS
00-02	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
June	286	27:28	.360/.410/.521
July	282	19:32	.241/.284/.330

03Jun	52	7:6	.231/.328/.288

Cirillo managed a .901 OPS at Safeco in 2002, but his meager .495 OPS this season severely drags down his numbers. He also struggles against right-handers, although even his .713 OPS versus southpaws barely merits a starting job. A 20:24 BB:K in 194 at-bats is fairly decent, and all his skills look fairly good, yet Cirillo just hasn't performed anywhere near expectations since joining the Mariners. Deal or cut him at this point if you can find any alternative with better recent numbers and solid skills.

Melvin Mora, OF/UT, BAL: -.102 BA; -.312 OPS
00-02	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
June	270	25:52	.311/.377/.530
July	277	20:51	.209/.281/.314

03Jun	54	11:13	.389/.500/.574

Leading the league in batting average and earning an almost certain All-Star selection significantly raises Mora's value, however even though he owns a 1.046 OPS right now, he historically slips after the break. His .80 contact rate suggests his batting average already is due to fall dramatically, and as he's also suffering through a hand injury right now, I can't imagine his value can climb much higher. Explore a potential deal involving Mora if you can parlay his great BA into help in multiple categories.

Jay Payton, OF, COL: -.079 BA; -.236 OPS
00-02	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
June	161	8:18	.335/.368/.528
July	242	20:29	.256/.313/.347

03Jun	84	4:7	.274/.307/.417

A full year in Coors should help alleviate some of the problems Payton normally encounters as the summer progresses, however he hasn't played particularly well in May and doesn't own overly strong skills. I also don't expect him to remain with the Rockies for much longer as we don't envision Payton as a long-term solution at left field in Colorado. Look to deal Payton now before a likely trade cuts his perceived value in half.

Andruw Jones, OF, ATL: -.075 BA; -.189 OPS
00-02	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
June	327	31:66	.291/.354/.520
July	301	29:68	.216/.290/.395

03Jun	55	4:12	.236/.300/.582

A career-best .85 G-F signals the potential to reach 40 homer at last, but we won't see true growth from Andruw until he boosts his .78 contact rate back over .80. Although we don't object to the disappearance of his speed given his increased focus on power and the Braves' need for run-producing bats in the middle of the lineup, the lack of steals obviously limits his roto value. Only his weak June BA and OBP lead me to recommending you wait with Jones for now, however feel free to move him for a package commensurate with his performance over the first two months of the season.

Rafael Furcal, SS, ATL: -.093 BA; -.186 OPS
00-02	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
June	237	22:45	.342/.403/.443
July	189	26:37	.249/.343/.317

03Jun	72	4:12	.208/.260/.361

We're going to see a mild decline in the Braves' offensive production next month thanks to expected downturns from Andruw and Furcal, yet I expect the rest of the lineup to continue hitting, which at least will keep Jones' RBI and Furcal's run totals at a high level. Although Furcal obviously merits an All-Star berth given his performance thus far, he only produced truly exceptional numbers in May, and his poor plate discipline this month leads me to believe that his trade value could drop rapidly. Look to deal Furcal before his current problems cause his batting average to drop below .300 as other owners also realize he isn't stealing many bases right now.

Aubrey Huff, OF, TB: -.058 BA; -.185 OPS
00-02	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
June	184	16:24	.304/.361/.484
July	179	16:29	.246/.308/.352

03Jun	74	4:10	.365/.398/.527

One of the only bright spots on the Rays and an easy choice for Tampa's All-Star representative, Huff's value nevertheless appears to be peaking right now. His walk rate has noticeably dropped since April even has his BA has risen, and his recent average, unsupported by his skills, should lead some owners to overvalue him, particularly considering he continues to qualify in the infield in most leagues. You likely should wait since I believe he can roughly sustain his overall production this year, however if you're interested in moving him, try to trade him in the very near future.

Shawn Green, OF, LA: -.060 BA; -.178 OPS
00-02	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
June	307	42:53	.293/.379/.577
July	301	35:62	.233/.313/.465

03Jun	78	8:15	.167/.233/.308

I can't think of many players on contending teams posting more disappointing numbers than Green. Jose Guillen, John Vander Wal, David Dellucci, Eduardo Perez, and Robby Hammock are only a few of the right fielders outperforming Green this year, and as he failed to improve in May and June as usual, I see little hope for an immediate rebound. His walk rate and contact rate remain down, and while his 1.63 G-F isn't as bad as last season's 1.78, his diminished contact reduces his already limited power potential. Feel free to deal Green if you can find someone willing to pay near full price for him, however you probably will end up keeping him since I see no justification for potential trade partners to show any interest in adding Green to their respective teams.

Raul Mondesi, OF, NYY: -.057 BA; -.177 OPS
00-02	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
June	288	33:54	.274/.353/.542
July	249	28:45	.217/.300/.418

03Jun	80	9:14	.200/.281/.375

Owner of one of the more severe splits in the game, Mondesi's OPS historically falls over 150 points after the All-Star game. Unfortunately, after a scalding .354/.420/.697 this April, he owns an .844 OPS thanks to barely holding a .700 mark over the last two months. Yet while his power numbers are down, his stolen bases remain solid, and his great start and decent walk rate camouflage his falling BA. See if you can use his early dominance, his five-category potential, and any applicable Yankee mystique to deal Mondesi for someone likely to improve over the rest of the year.

Players who qualified with an OPS decrease below .175 include John Olerud(-.072 BA/-.170 OPS) and Carl Everett(-.085/-.166).

Other qualifying players who don't start every day include Rob Mackowiak(-.120 BA/-.369 OPS), Frank Menechino(-.111/-.294), Tom Goodwin(-.139/-.269), Timo Perez(-.067/-.260), Jay Bell(-.083/-.242), Ruben Sierra(-.066/-.234), Eric Owens(-.085/-.206), Todd Zeile(-.073/-.172), and Desi Relaford(-.058/-.136). These are not players you should target in the near future.

Currently injured players who qualified include Craig Counsell(-.057 BA/-.214 OPS), Bernie Williams(-.061/-.183), and Marvin Benard(-.094/-.166).

Today's Fantasy Rx: As another of our primary utilities recently failed, we're spending much of this week shopping for a new air conditioner. If anyone recently installed or replaced a central air unit in their house or townhouse, we'd appreciate any comments or advice you might have regarding your installer/repairman, why you selected a particular brand of air conditioner, etc.