Today's Fantasy Rx

I'm going to spend the first four days of this week on players whose July performances generally differ dramatically from their stats in June. To qualify for consideration, a position player must have at least 100 AB in both June and July over the last three years, and show a change, positive or negative, of .050 BA and .100 OPS between the two months.

Today we'll focus on improving hitters, tomorrow will be declining hitters, and then we'll spend the following two days on improving and then declining pitchers.

A few players qualified for today's list strictly due to their similar placement on last month's Squashed Junebugs list. Instead of discussing them in detail again, I'll briefly summarize my current recommendations before continuing with new players.

Roger Cedeno, OF, NYM: +.076 BA/+.181 OPS. June: deal.
July: deal or cut.

Omar Vizquel, SS, CLE: +.068 BA/+.169 OPS. June: deal.
July: wait.

Preston Wilson, OF, COL: +.061 BA; +.127 OPS. June: acquire.
July: wait.

David Ortiz, 1B/DH, BOS: +.130 BA; +.362 OPS
00-02	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
June	129	18:29	.240/.327/.403
July	189	31:28	.370/.457/.635

03Jun	48	7:9	.333/.418/.542

Aside from a normally solid April, July easily appears Ortiz's most productive month of the season, and based on current playing time trends, I doubt 2003 will buck his normal trend. Although he's received nearly three-quarters of his at-bats against right-handers, Ortiz displays no platoon split this year and has posted a .940 OPS after a disappointing April. Boston's offense is so deep that we can't expect him to significantly exceed 50 at-bats this July, however Ortiz still looks like a good candidate to acquire at this time.

Jeff Bagwell, 1B, HOU: +.104 BA; +.358 OPS
00-02	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
June	304	37:70	.237/.326/.424
July	287	53:54	.341/.442/.666

03Jun	73	9:15	.260/.349/.452

The shocking aspect of Bagwell's stats is he's hit only three homers since crushing ten longballs in April. He slumped throughout May, but at least he rebounded to most respectable overall numbers in June. Yet he only has 12 RBI since the end of April despite hitting in a powerful lineup. Bagwell's 1.27 G-F ranks as the worst mark of his career, and a 3.70 #P/PA indicates he hasn't displayed less patience in a decade. I just don't see many positive signs here right now, and while you should wait if you already own given Bagwell's history, I definitely would not target him for any team.

Aaron Boone, 3B, CIN: +.074 BA; +.304 OPS
00-02	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
June	255	13:46	.267/.313/.396
July	211	23:24	.341/.406/.607

03Jun	69	2:13	.333/.352/.464

Even with his relatively pedestrian April, Boone owns some of the best stats of any third baseman thanks to his combination of power and speed. His current .275 BA even makes him a solid five-category players right now, and his favorable home ballpark should only enhance his numbers this summer. Look to acquire Boone as he provides a nice boost for your team in all standard categories.

Manny Ramirez, OF, BOS: +.057 BA; +.228 OPS
00-02	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
June	121	22:35	.240/.361/.488
July	256	44:74	.297/.409/.668

03Jun	71	16:13	.310/.422/.704

Most of you know we've touted Manny all season due to our belief that the his skill trends would allow him to benefit from Boston's new emphasis on OBP, and while he isn't quite matching Carlos Delgado's great stats, I see no real problem with Ramirez's performance thus far. Unfortunately, we normally see no significant second half improvement from Ramirez, so his current .306 BA appears at least 30 points below our expectations. Yet he uncharacteristically pounded the ball this June, and I see no reason why he won't approach 10 homers and 30 RBI for a second straight month. If you can afford the asking price and need a power and/or BA boost, definitely look to acquire Manny.

Milton Bradley, OF, CLE: +.062 BA; +.207 OPS
00-02	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
June	130	8:29	.208/.254/.308
July	141	11:29	.270/.322/.447

03Jun	72	11:19	.361/.442/.542

With the 3rd best BA in the league, the 2nd best OBP, and the 5th best OPS despite missing two weeks with a strained wrist and hamstring, Bradley will be a worthy All-Star representative for an otherwise starless Indians' squad. While a .80 contact rate suggests his average will drop, he only turned 25 in April even though he spent much of the past couple years in the majors. He shouldn't be able to keep up his current pace, however I don't see a significant weakness in his skills. Feel free to wait another month in the hope he can maintain a semblance of his performance thus far before exploring any trade talks.

Barry Larkin, SS, CIN: +.067 BA; +.205 OPS
00-02	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
June	228	19:20	.259/.313/.421
July	181	30:25	.326/.425.514

03Jun	35	0:5	.286/.286/.371

Two different DL trips before the end of May insured that Larkin likely never again would assume an everyday role, yet Bob Boone plopped Larkin right back in the starting lineup upon his return a little over a week ago. Larkin still owns great plate discipline and looks like the Reds' best shortstop even at 39, however his brief May performance dramatically exceeded his numbers in either April or June thus far. Unfortunately we can't expect his normal improvement next month give his uncertain health, so if you still own Larkin, look to deal him now before he loses time to yet another injury.

Corey Koskie, 3B, MIN: +.057 BA; +.196 OPS
00-02	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
June	256	45:55	.285/.395/.457
July	260	45:68	.342/.444/.604

03Jun	71	14:16	.423/.511/.676

After reaching base in over half his plate appearances thus far in June, I doubt Koskie can improve upon his current performance. Yet he owns skills at or very near his career bests in almost every category, and while he could slump in the second half, Koskie otherwise appears on his way to a career year. I doubt most teams will want to pay the necessary price to add Koskie right now, especially since you certainly should wait if you already own him based on the likelihood he can hold an OPS over 1.000 for another month.

Kenny Lofton, OF, PIT: +.074 BA; +.165 OPS
00-02	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
June	285	36:40	.193/.287/.374
July	270	30:42	.267/.343/.456

03Jun	65	5:3	.185/.247/.385

Lofton continues to add much more to standard fantasy teams than the Pirates, yet he likely will head to a contender like the Giants, White Sox, or Royals by the trading deadline as Pittsburgh needs to make room for Tike Redman. While he slumped this month right on schedule, Lofton also held respectable skills, continued stealing bases, and should rebound nicely over the balance of the year. Look to acquire him as I doubt his value will reach a lower point this season.

Juan Pierre, OF, FLO: +.065 BA; +.164 OPS
00-02	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
June	213	10:11	.277/.313/.319
July	196	9:10	.342/.378/.418

03Jun	77	7:4	.286/.337/.364

Only teams in specific need of either BA or steals should target Pierre as his place as the runaway leader in steals makes him extremely valuable in standard leagues. Of course we like his trends, Florida continues to let him run, and he only looks likely to improve over the next few months. If you can afford his inflated price, Pierre is a great player to acquire if you need to fix those specific category deficiencies.

Alex Gonzalez, SS, FLO: +.097 BA; +.158 OPS
00-02	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
June	151	5:31	.225/.273/.397
July	143	1:28	.322/.331/.497

03Jun	69	4:14	.319/.373/.551

The only argument for predicting this kind of season from Gonzalez is that he only turned 26 in February despite spending the vast majority of the previous five seasons starting at shortstop for Florida. He certainly owns these skills as he posted marks in 2002 near his current 3.54 #P/PA and .64 G-F, but even an improved contact rate doesn't overly compensate for his continually weak overall plate discipline. However, while nearly all my roto instincts lead me to recommend trading him now, wait a couple more weeks before shopping Gonzalez since these trends suggest you should be able to milk one more month of solid production from him.

Players that qualified but posted an OPS improvement under .150 include Trot Nixon(+.054 BA/+.147 OPS), Deivi Cruz(+.054/+.140), Jason LaRue(+.051/+.139), Jason Varitek(+.059/+.136), Johnny Damon(+.062/+.135), Doug Mientkiewicz(+.066/+.105), and Carlos Febles(+.053/+.100).

Other players who qualified but don't start every day include Daryle Ward(+.117 BA/+.360 OPS), Chris Gomez(+.074/+.219), Andres Galarraga(+.070/+.169), Mike Lamb(+.062/+.156), and Brian Daubach(+.069/+.120). Any of them would be a reasonable FAAB pickup this week.

Currently injured players who qualified include Randall Simon(+.080/+.222).

Today's Fantasy Rx: Only the Blue Jays, with 474 runs scored in 75 games, own a more impressive offense than the Red Sox, who've compiled 440 runs in 73 games. Yet with Johnny Damon, Manny Ramirez, Trot Nixon, David Ortiz, and Jason Varitek all on today's list and starting nearly every day in Boston, the Red Sox should shoot ahead of Toronto in runs scored by the end of the month. If you need to add runs and RBI, target Boston position players as the cumulative effect of better performances should send the team's offensive production skyrocketing.