Today's Fantasy Rx

Note: The beginning of most stat lines includes the following data: H/AB for BA/OBP/SLG.

Anaheim: Darin Erstad, OF
26/86 for .302/.371/.384 with 2 HR, 8 RBI, 20 R, 3/4 SB%,
and an 8:8 BB:K.

Erstad hit the DL April 20th with tendinitis in his lower right hamstring, and after avoiding season-ending surgery, he finally returned to the Angels last week. He looked on his way to a great season before the injury, and while he's struggled since returning, he still owns solid all-around skills. Both his .09 walk rate and .91 contact rate echo the best marks he managed in any previous season, Erstad also owns a career-best 3.96 #P/PA. A career-worst 1.70 G-F limits his power potential, however as long as you're not hurting for homers or RBI, look to acquire Erstad as he should help in every other category.

May Underachiever: Scott Spiezio, 1B
Old stats: 30/131 for .229/.309/.420 with 5 HR, 17 RBI, 17 R, 1/2 SB%,
and a 15:12 BB:K.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: .304 with 1 HR, 4 RBI, 12 R, 1/1 SB%,
and a 6:12 BB:K.

Previous Underachievers: April: David Eckstein.

Baltimore: David Segui, DH
44/154 for .286/.368/.396 with 3 HR, 17 RBI, 19 R, 1/1 SB%,
and a 19:32 BB:K.

We can excuse his .263/.336/.368 last season since Segui only played 26 games due to injury, however he's remained largely healthy this year and still can't break a .400 SLG, an unacceptable lack of power from nearly any DH. His 4.12 #P/PA, a career-best by nearly 10%, indicates he still possesses great patience, but a 1.69 G-F is Segui's worst mark in over a decade and suggests we won't see a slugging boost any time soon. Although he should post a respectable average this season, we don't expect Segui to help in any other category, so look to deal him if any owner indicates a belief that Segui's power will return.

May Underachiever: Deivi Cruz, SS
Old stats: 27/130 for .208/.214/.315 with 4 HR, 14 RBI, 13 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 1:6 BB:K.
Recommendation: deal or cut.
Stats since recommendation: 31/85 for .365 with 5 HR, 18 RBI, 17 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 2:9 BB:K

Previous Underachievers: April: Gary Matthews, Jr.

Boston: Jeremy Giambi, DH/OF
18/102 for .176/.333/.373 with 5 HR, 13 RBI, 13 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 22:30 BB:K.

We've held off discussing Giambi because of a general belief that he can't maintain these horrible numbers, but even trading Hillenbrand only opened at-bats for Millar and Dave Ortiz. Giambi managed a .268/.388/.537 performance in May, but he only has one hit in 13 at-bats this month; at least Boston realizes his 5:4 BB:K in June gives him limited value. Unfortunately continued excellence from Millar and Ortiz leaves Giambi without the necessary regular playing time, so only acquire him if you can leave him reserved indefinitely.

May Underachiever: Johnny Damon, OF
Old stats: 42/167 for .250/.330/.437 with 5 HR, 18 RBI, 33 R, 10/11 SB%,
and a 19:19 BB:K.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 27/106 for .255 with 1 HR, 10 RBI, 15 R, 2/3 SB%,
and a 7:13 BB:K.

Previous Underachievers: April: David Ortiz.

Chicago White Sox: Magglio Ordonez, OF
68/253 for .269/.335/.482 with 12 HR, 39 RBI, 32 R, 6/8 SB%,
and a 21:35 BB:K.

Konerko and Crede continue to struggle while Chicago's reserved little help from Olivo, Rios, Daubach, and everyone playing centerfield, however the most puzzling aspect of the Sox's struggles is Mags' descent from MVP candidate to barely average right fielder. Of course both his .08 walk rate and .86 contact rate each are only a point below his 2002 marks, his 3.62 #P/PA is right on target, and a .99 G-F even ranks as a career-best mark. Ordonez isn't hitting right-handers as well as past years, but most of his splits seem lower by a significant amount. Perhaps he suffers from the same malaise that settled over this entire offense in early April, yet all his skills suggest a pending rebound. Look to acquire Ordonez now since we don't expect his value will drop to a lower point for several years.

May Underachiever: Joe Crede, 3B
Old stats: 34/145 for .234/.266/.331 with 2 HR, 15 RBI, 11 R, 0/1 SB%,
and a 5:17 BB:K.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 20/82 for .244 with 4 HR, 12 RBI, 7 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 2:17 BB:K.

Previous Underachievers: April: Paul Konerko.

Cleveland: Brandon Phillips, 2B
43/207 for .208/.241/.309 with 4 HR, 19 RBI, 22 R, 3/5 SB%,
and an 8:40 BB:K.

Vizquel's injury will keep Phillips starting at least for another few weeks, but the 21-year-old will lose his job in the near future without rapid improvement in these stats. While the fundamental problem here is the same lack of patience he exhibited in the minors, his .81 contact rate isn't far below his AA and AAA marks. He didn't steal many bases in the upper minors, and a 1.14 G-F also indicates promising power potential. Cleveland needs to recognize he's both quite young and was rushed through AAA, however I unfortunately agree with the prevalent opinion that Phillips needs to head to Buffalo. Eric Wedge isn't a good manager for him under any circumstances, and from the Indians' perspective, an extended minor league assignment will give them a chance to see how John McDonald can perform as a starter while even delaying Phillips' arbitration and free agency clocks for another year. Phillips' long-term upside remains as high as nearly any young middle infielder in the game, although only rebuilding teams should look to acquire him right now.

May Underachiever: Karim Garcia, OF
Old stats: 18/93 for .194/.238/.366 with 5 HR, 14 RBI, 8 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 5:20 BB:K.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: No stats as Garcia remained on the DL for the past month.

Previous Underachievers: April: Matt Lawton.

Detroit: Bobby Higginson, OF
56/228 for .246/.340/.346 with 4 HR, 23 RBI, 31 R, 7/12 SB%,
and a 32:34 BB:K.

Like the White Sox, the Tigers' central offensive problem is a perfectly ordinary season from the best player on the team. His SLG and OPS both are career lows, and his BA and OBP both are a couple dozen points off his norms; even Higginson's 1.18 G-F is the worst mark he's ever posted. The combination of a deteriorating contact rate and power potential with the problems any hitter faces in Comerica leave Higginson with little overall value in standard leagues. However his .14 walk rate and 3.87 #P/PA are far superior to his 2002 marks, so while we can't expect him to exceed a dozen homers, he could post a .300 BA on the balance of the season. Look to acquire Higginson if you need help with your team's batting average, steals, or runs.

May Underachiever: Carlos Pena, 1B
Old stats: 27/130 for .208/.266/.323 with 3 HR, 9 RBI, 10 R, 3/4 SB%,
and a 9:35 BB:K.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 11/32 for .344 with 3 HR, 11 RBI, 4 R, 0/1 SB%,
and a 6:8 BB:K before hitting the DL June 5th with a torn knee muscle.

Previous Underachievers: April: Dmitri Young.

Kansas City: Ken Harvey, DH/1B
40/180 for .222/.281/.356 with 5 HR, 23 RBI, 17 R, 0/0 SB%,
and an 11:42 BB:K.

The Royals' regular DH doesn't appear to belong anywhere near the majors right now, and as he only managed a .277/.342/.465 with a 42:87 BB:K in 488 at-bats at AAA Omaha(PCL) last season, Kansas City helps no one by leaving him in the lineup. He neither performs adequately as first or DH, and both Harvey's 3.47 #P/PA and 2.18 G-F indicate fundamental flaws in his skill set. Deal or cut him now since I don't foresee him contributing to a successful fantasy team any time soon.

May Underachiever: Joe Randa, 3B
Old stats: 33/140 for .236/.306/.414 with 5 HR, 18 RBI, 19 R, 1/1 SB%,
and a 14:17 BB:K.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 24/87 for .276 with 3 HR, 8 RBI, 16 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 4:12 BB:K.

Previous Underachievers: April: Mike Sweeney.

Minnesota: Cristian Guzman, SS
71/263 for .270/.298/.373 with 0 HR, 17 RBI, 37 R, 3/8 SB%,
and a 9:38 BB:K.

Minnesota may own the most unproductive middle infield in baseball as Guzman's numbers make Rivas' .311 OBP and 5/9 SB% look good. An empty BA masks Guzman's complete lack of secondary skills. A career-best 1.54 G-F only indicates a rebound to his 2001 power potential, but he's a fairly useless fantasy player as long as he neither attempts many steals nor reaches base less than 30% of the time. I still see enough upside here to recommend rebuilding teams acquire the 25-year-old veteran, however any contenders should actively seek a trade partner for someone this risky to own.

May Underachiever: Torii Hunter, OF
Old stats: 35/162 for .216/.291/.395 with 6 HR, 27 RBI, 20 R, 0/4 SB%,
and a 16:29 BB:K.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 25/83 for .301 with 3 HR, 15 RBI, 11 R, 2/5 SB%,
and a 13:19 BB:K.

Previous Underachievers: April: Mike Cuddyer.

New York Yankees: Derek Jeter, SS
35/142 for .246/.301/.394 with 3 HR, 15 RBI, 20 R, 3/4 SB%,
and an 11:30 BB:K.

Jeter hasn't posted numbers anywhere near this level since his 1995 debut. A career-worst .79 contact rate and 2.10 G-F leave him with little power potential, and a .08 walk rate also doesn't suggest his BA will approach .300 this season. More disturbingly, he's on pace for only about a dozen steals after increasing his SB totals in each of the last three seasons, and he only owns a .494 OPS thus far in June. We can trace most of these problems to a .242/.288/.379 performance against right-handers this year, however he simply doesn't appear to own the skills necessary to post even a pro-rated portion of his customary $30 season. Try to deal Jeter to any Yankee fan who believes he'll rebound in the near future.

May Underachiever: Hideki Matsui, OF
Old stats: 48/179 for .268/.316/.385 with 3 HR, 29 RBI, 20 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 13:25 BB:K.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 34/104 for .327 with 3 HR, 16 RBI, 15 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 10:14 BB:K.

Previous Underachievers: April: Jason Giambi.

Oakland: Jermaine Dye, OF
19/117 for .162/.241/.248 with 2 HR, 9 RBI, 16 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 13:23 BB:K.

While Tejada continues to post respectable power numbers despite a terrible .280 OBP, Dye's abhorrent level of play is a primary reason why the Athletics lag more than a week of wins behind the Mariners. Yet unless Dye is hiding an injury or isn't full recovered from his April knee surgery, we can expect a strong rebound in the near future. A .11 walk rate, 4.02 #P/PA, and a career-best .75 G-F all suggest immediate upside, and even his .80 contact rate is closer to his 2001 mark than the .78 he posted a year ago. Try to acquire Dye immediately as he will continue starting for Oakland and soon should improve significantly.

May Underachiever: Eric Chavez, 3B
Old stats: 38/150 for .253/.341/.473 with 8 HR, 16 RBI, 20 R, 3/4 SB%,
and a 20:29 BB:K.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 22/86 for .256 with 4 HR, 18 RBI, 13 R, 2/2 SB%,
and a 7:11 BB:K.

Previous Underachievers: April: Jermaine Dye.

Seattle: Dan Wilson, C
31/133 for .233/.277/.308 with 1 HR, 20 RBI, 11 R, 0/0 SB%,
and an 8:29 BB:K.

I can't say these stats particularly surprise me, however Wilson looked capable of posting a couple bucks of PDV this year. Most of his skills even appear intact, yet his contact rate dropped from .82 to .77 a year ego even as his BA increased 30 points, so although he's making slightly better contact this season, a drop to his current BA seems perfectly in line with his skills. Don't expect a notable rebound in 2003, so anyone needing a respectable level of offense from catcher should try to deal Wilson even if you can only grab a younger catcher with questionable upside in return.

May Underachiever: Mark McLemore, 3B/UT
Old stats: 17/81 for .210/.309/.333 with 1 HR, 13 RBI, 11 R, 2/3 SB%,
and a 12:20 BB:K.
Recommendation: deal or cut.
Stats since recommendation: 13/54 for .241 with 1 HR, 4 RBI, 8 R, 1/1 SB%,
and a 5:16 BB:K.

Previous Underachievers: April: Jeff Cirillo.

Tampa Bay: Ben Grieve, DH/OF
28/107 for .262/.396/.402 with 4 HR, 13 RBI, 21 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 20:22 BB:K.

I really don't see many underachievers here since I didn't expect to see helpful fantasy stats from many Devil Rays, however Huff's move to the outfield will keep Grieve from qualifying at DH in some leagues, and his injury leaves his quantitative numbers depressed. Fortunately his .79 contact rate is a welcome improvement from his .76 career norm and the .73 he compiled since joining Tampa in 2001. The downside of his contact improvement is that he possesses a career-worst 3.72 #P/PA and he still owns a terrible 2.04 G-F. Of course I still see a lot of upside here since he only turned 27 in May, continues to demonstrate great plate discipline, and only needs a decent hitting coach to reteach him the swing that averaged a 1.47 G-F in 1999 and 2000 to reemerge as an outfield stud. Look to acquire Grieve, and you may find yourself with a great bargain if Tampa deals him to a contender.

May Underachiever: Damion Easley, 3B
Old stats: 14/84 for .167/.186/.262 with 1 HR, 4 RBI, 8 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 2:14 BB:K.
Recommendation: deal or cut.
Stats since recommendation: 6/23 for .261 with 0 HR, 3 RBI, 0 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 0:4 BB:K before Tampa released him on June 5th.

Previous Underachievers: April: Carl Crawford.

Texas: Alex Rodriguez, SS
77/264 for .292/.375/.534 with 16 HR, 38 RBI, 46 R, 7/8 SB%,
and a 30:61 BB:K.

While I hate to label a shortstop with 16 homers and 7 steals by mid-June an underachiever, most of ARod's numbers rest below what we expect given his skill trends, age, and ballpark. The steals even are a welcome sight after he didn't manage double-digit SB lasts season, but he otherwise appears on pace for less than 40 homers, around 90 RBI, and 106 runs. Most of his skills only are slightly down from 2002, so the big change is a .77 contact rate, a definite drop from his .80 career norm. That change accounts for his lower BA and some of his power outage, but the relative stability of his skills suggests we'll see a strong second half. Look to acquire ARod if his owner is irritated with his unexpectedly weak output thus far.

May Underachiever: Einar Diaz, C
Old stats: 23/100 for .230/.278/.300 with 0 HR, 5 RBI, 11 R, 1/2 SB%,
and a 4:11 BB:K.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 16/54 for .296 with 2 HR, 10 RBI, 5 R, 1/1 SB%,
and a 2:6 BB:K.

Previous Underachievers: April: Mark Teixeira.

Toronto: Josh Phelps, DH
59/217 for .272/.367/.442 with 8 HR, 30 RBI, 36 R, 0/2 SB%,
and a 22:65 BB:K.

Any team that leads the majors in runs without playing home games in Colorado won't own too many underachieving position players. However, I'm surprised both by Phelps' solid BA and the fact that even though he's only played thirteen fewer games than a year ago, his HR and RBI are barely half what he attained last season. Most significantly, his G-F rose from .97 to 1.31, but his walk rate jumped from .07 to .10 as his contact rate remained around .70. The biggest change for Phelps is that he's hit exclusively 5th and 6th after spending a third of last year in the #7 hole, a third of it at #5, and his other 88 at-bats split between #4 and #6. Despite hitting behind MVP candidate Carlos Delgado, Phelps' OPS with runners in scoring position dropped from .943 to .819, and his OPS with any runners on base fell to .759 after a season at 1.004. No one can amass laudable RBI totals without taking posting a solid OPS with runners on base, though at least the historical randomness of these stat categories suggest Phelps should rebound in the second half. While you shouldn't expect great numbers from him over the balance of the year, you likely should wait as he still appears capable of approaching 30 HR and 100 RBI this season.

May Underachiever: Shannon Stewart, OF
Old stats: 58/193 for .301/.361/.420 with 1 HR, 16 RBI, 30 R, 1/3 SB%,
and a 19:19 BB:K.
Recommendation: wait.
Stats since recommendation: 8/27 for .296 with 2 HR, 9 RBI, 6 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 2:2 BB:K before hitting the DL June 5th with a strained right hamstring.

Previous Underachievers: April: Orlando Hudson.

We'll continue tomorrow with National League underachieving batters.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Once second division teams begin unloading players in the next month, several back-ups and prospects on struggling clubs will rapidly increase in value thanks to additional playing time. Owners with available roster spots looking for potential value should target skilled reserves like Ramon Castro, Keith Ginter, and anyone immediately behind players likely to find new homes in the near future.