Today's Fantasy Rx

Note: For those of you unfamiliar with FAAB, each team normally begins with $100 to spend throughout the year on all free agent pickups. Most injury replacements or speculative picks go for a buck or two, hot starters go for $5-$10, top prospects go in the $10-$30 range, and we've seen $90+ bids on top players traded into the league.

Anaheim: Bart Miadich, 27, RH Reliever
2-1 and 8 Saves on a 30:21 K:BB in 25.1 IP over 22 G
with 14 H, 2 HR, and a 2.49 ERA at AAA Salt Lake(PCL).

With the top reliever in baseball and the best overall bullpen in the league, we don't expect to see many changes on this pitching staff unrelated to injury. Unfortunately the Angels lack any capable AAA starter, so they'll likely promote a reliever and shift Scot Shields back to the rotation if they need another starter. Miadich spent a couple days last weekend in the majors as an emergency backup, and while Greg Jones deserves the next opportunity, we expect to see Miadich return to fill the next opening. However even though he obviously remains a dominant reliever, his continual control problems make him a questionable fantasy selection. Ignore any further call-ups of Miadich this season barring major improvement in his walk rate.

Previously discussed 2003 AL pitching prospects: May: Greg Jones.

Baltimore: Eric DuBose, 27, LH Starter
0-1 on a 5:2 K:BB in 6.1 IP over 1 GS
with 3 H, 1 HR, and a 9-7 G-F; 2.84 ERA in Baltimore.
7-4 on an 83:29 K:BB in 89.1 IP over 15 GS
with 91 H, 7 HR, and a 3.83 ERA at AAA Ottawa(PCL).

The 21st overall pick of the 1997 draft by Oakland, DuBose now owns four decent pitches and converted back to starting this year after three years of mostly impressive bullpen work. Considering his results so far this year, Baltimore may have nabbed a future rotation fixture if DuBose remains healthy. All his skills look quite solid, and his spot start earlier this season puts him in the running to replace Sir Sidney or Jason Johnson if the Orioles deal a starter. Owners in keeper leagues in particular should attempt to FAAB DuBose upon his likely recall later this year since I won't be surprised if he emerges as Baltimore's most valuable roto pitcher in 2004.

Previously discussed 2003 AL pitching prospects: May: Hector Carrasco.

Boston: Bronson Arroyo, 26, RH Starter
7-4 on a 97:18 K:BB in 97.2 IP over 16 GS
with 98 H, 6 HR, and a 3.69 ERA at AAA Pawtucket(IL).

The Red Sox aren't eager to promote Arroyo since they'd likely lose him on waivers if they tried to outright him a second time this season. However, he deserves a shot to win a big league rotation spot before the team deals a couple of their only prospects for a stopgap starter. While all his skills look good, his 8.9 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9 in particular merit attention, especially since these even are superior to the 7.3 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9 he posted a year ago for AAA Nashville(PCL) in the PCL. He should develop into either a dominant reliever or middle-of-the-rotation starter, and his win potential thanks to Boston's offense means that any owner desiring a starter needs to FAAB Arroyo once the Red Sox finally promote him.

Previously discussed 2003 AL pitching prospects: May: Ryan Rupe.

Chicago White Sox: Mike Porzio, 30, LH Swingman
6-4 on an 82:32 K:BB in 90 IP over 15 GS(16G)
with 90 H, 13 HR, and a 4.40 ERA at AAA Charlotte(IL).

The White Sox used Porzio exclusively in relief last year in the majors despite his mild success as a AAA starter, but this season Dave Sanders and Josh Stewart have occupied all the open spot for lefties in the majors. So Porzio returned to Charlotte to post some of the best numbers of his career; only his 1.3 home rate even partially concerns me. He looks prepared to succeed in a major league rotation if either the Sox need a starter or another team wisely nabs him in trade, and if you have the chance to add him to your roster, Porzio merits a few bucks of FAAB as long as his home ballpark isn't particularly friendly to power hitters.

Previously discussed 2003 AL pitching prospects: May: Matt Ginter.

Cleveland: Lance Caraccioli, 25, LH Swingman
3-3 on a 46:19 K:BB in 51.2 IP over 23 G(5GS)
with 58 H, 4 HR, and a 5.05 ERA at AAA Buffalo(IL).

Caraccioli shifted to the pen this year as he lacks the skills to emerge as a starter in an Indians' organization loaded with potential rotation candidates. Now most his skills look very promising since only the Bison's rather porous defense forces his elevated hit rate. Caraccioli should compete with Carl Sadler, Alex Herrera, and any other starters that move to relief over the next couple years for left-handed relief work in Cleveland. Unfortunately I don't expect him to ever move into a more significant role, so you certainly should ignore any call-up this season.

Previously discussed 2003 AL pitching prospects: May: Jason Stanford.

Detroit: Tyler Walker, 27, RH Starter
2-5 on an 82:32 K:BB in 89 IP over 14 GS(18G)
with 92 H, 6 HR, and a 4.15 ERA at AAA Toledo.

While Shane Loux's superior record might net him the first promotion among Mud Hen starters, Walker possesses the best combination of dominance and control, and he deserves a look in Detroit before Loux, Nate Robertson, Seth Greisinger, and even Matt Anderson. We were surprised when the Mets tried to sneak him through waivers in the off-season and believed Detroit nabbed a sleeper at the time, and his 8.3 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, and .6 HR/9 all suggest he's ready for a challenge in the majors. As long as the Tigers continue ignoring pitchers' records in evaluation, Walker should see the majors soon and likely merit a few bucks of your FAAB if you need a starter with good qualitative stats and don't mind the lack of the wins.

Previously discussed 2003 AL pitching prospects: May: Fernando Rodney.

Kansas City: Ryan Baerlocher, 26, RH Starter
5-4 on a 76:27 K:BB in 84.2 IP over 10 GS(20G)
with 84 H, 8 HR, and a 4.78 ERA between AA Wichita(TL) and AAA Omaha(PCL).

We felt the Padres significantly erred by not keeping Baerlocher as a Rule 5 pick a season ago, however he struggled after returning the Royals' organization and received no consideration from any team this winter. Kansas City left him in relief at AA to begin this year, and he dominated by posting a 36:14 K:BB in 34.2 IP. He looked even more impressive as a starter in Omaha after compiling a 40:13 K:BB in 50 IP, and he deserves a call-up to the Royals later this season. While his elevated homer rate in AAA concerns me as Kauffman Stadium also is rather unforgiving to flyball pitchers, I still like Baerlocher's upside a lot and believe he merits a cautiously low FAAB bid when he reaches the majors.

Previously discussed 2003 AL pitching prospects: May: Jason Gilfillan.

Minnesota: Grant Balfour, 25, RH Swingman
2-0 and 5 Saves on a 55:9 K:BB in 43 IP over 15 G(6GS)
with 26 H, 1 HR, and a 1.47 ERA at AAA Rochester(IL).

Jeromy Palki and Juan Padilla also look good, but Balfour looks ready for the majors as either a starter or reliever. He already deserved a shot this year after posting an 88:30 K:BB in 71 IP at AAA Edmonton(PCL) last season, and his dominant performance in a league far friendlier to pitchers puts him in definite contention for a significant role on the Twins. I expect he's mostly likely to end up competing to close in Minnesota next year, however he also apparently owns the skills necessary to succeed in the rotation. Regardless of how the team employs Balfour, he possesses almost as much roto upside right now as Johan Santana, and we'll definitely look to FAAB him upon his eventual promotion.

Previously discussed 2003 AL pitching prospects: May: Michael Nakamura.

New York Yankees: Brandon Claussen, 24, LH Starter
3-0 on a 53:8 K:BB in 62.1 IP over 10 GS
with 39 H, 3 HR, and a 1.44 ERA between A+ Tampa(FSL) and AAA Columbus(IL).

Not only is Claussen now the Yankees' top pitching prospect, he might be one of the organization's only untouchable players in trade talks. His dominance of both the Florida State and International Leagues demonstrates his nearly complete recovery from Tommy John surgery last June. Even if Andy Pettitte returns to New York next year, Claussen should compete with Jeff Weaver and Jose Contreras for the two rotation spots following Mussina, Pettitte, and Lieber. Playing for the Yankees gives any starter significant fantasy upside, and Claussen looks like the best pitching prospect developed here since Pettitte. Definitely try to FAAB him for a few bucks once New York promotes him.

Previously discussed 2003 AL pitching prospects: May: Adrian Hernandez.

Oakland: Erik Hiljus, 30, RH Starter
9-5 on an 80:34 K:BB in 102.2 IP over 18 GS
with 108 H, 15 HR, and a 4.91 ERA at AAA Sacramento(PCL).

I doubt Oakland will give Hiljus another look given the unimpressive performances of John Halama and Aaron Harang this year, however his command indicates he might possess some value in a long relief role. Unfortunately for Hiljus, the Athletics need dominant pitchers and shouldn't bother with minor league veterans with a 1.3 homer rate. Ignore Hiljus unless Oakland deals him to a pitcher-needy team since he's unlikely to post PDV in a mop-up role.

Previously discussed 2003 AL pitching prospects: May: Justin Duchscherer.

Seattle: Aaron Taylor, 25, RH Reliever
1-3 and 16 Saves on a 34:13 K:BB in 40.1 IP over 33 G
with 30 H, 3 HR, and a 2.45 ERA at AAA Tacoma(PCL).

Taylor emerged as a potential relief stud following his conversion to the bullpen in 2001. He skipped high-A to compile 24 saves on a 93:34 K:BB in 77 IP while pitching in the very hitter-friendly Texas League last season. Although his dominance slipped this year, the corresponding improvement in his walk rate indicates he's ready for a job in the majors. Even though I don't envision him closing in Seattle, he merits a low FAAB bid upon his promotion for anyone desiring a low-risk middle reliever for their pitching staff.

Previously discussed 2003 AL pitching prospects: May: Rafael Soriano.

Tampa Bay: Talley Haines, 26, RH Reliever
4-1 on a 37:6 K:BB in 39 IP over 29 G
with 33 H, 3 HR, and a 2.31 ERA at AAA Durham(IL).

Lee Gardner and Todd Williams also merit consideration for a call-up, but Haines's fantastic control should put him first in line. Unfortunately he posted a similarly impressive 62:24 K:BB in 76 IP at Durham in 2002 and never reached the majors, so although he could couple with Travis Harper to provide excellent middle relief ahead of short relievers Lance Carter and Jesus Colome, I don't expect Haines in the majors before September. Ignore his eventual promotion since the Devil Rays don't seem to like him, he won't find a more significant role, and the instability in the rest of the pen leaves his ERA very exposed.

Previously discussed 2003 AL pitching prospects: May: Jeremi Gonzalez.

Texas: Tony Mounce, 28, LH Starter
7-3 on a 41:21 K:BB in 70.2 IP over 10 GS(12G)
with 63 H, 5 HR, and a 2.55 ERA between AA Frisco(TL) and AAA Oklahoma(PCL).

Mounce should reach the majors later this week as a spot starter, yet while his 2.7 BB/9 is fairly respectable, his weak 5.2 K/9 gives him little chance of immediate success. His minor league history suggests he should move to the bullpen, although he managed a 47:15 K:BB in 58 IP over 11 GS at Tulsa last year. Of course no rookie pitcher should debut during an Arlington summer, and unless you're desperate for any possibility of wins and don't need to worry about qualitative stats, ignore Mounce for now.

Previously discussed 2003 AL pitching prospects: May: Victor Santos.

Toronto: Corey Thurman, 24, RH Starter
5-2 on a 52:21 K:BB in 59 IP over 12 GS
with 61 H, 4 HR, and a 4.12 ERA at AAA Syracuse(IL).

Last season Thurman posted a respectable 7.4 K/9 after Toronto selected him in the previous winter's Rule 5 draft, however his 6.0 BB/9 and 1.5 HR/9 earned him a ticket back to the minors this year. Inserted into Syracuse's rotation, Thurman instead looks prepared to return to the majors as a starter given his solid all-around skills. You likely should ignore him since the Skydome looks like the AL's best hitters' park right now, however anyone looking towards next season should consider a low bid on Thurman.

Previously discussed 2003 AL pitching prospects: May: Josh Towers.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Expect both rumors and actual trades to increase after the June 15th deadline when teams first can deal major league free agents signed last off-season. Particularly if your rules don't allow you to keep players traded to the other league, immediately begin exploring deals involving any of your players you believe will change teams. Likely trade bait includes pending free agents and arbitration-eligible veterans on the Rangers, specifically Ugueth Urbina, as well as the Mets, Orioles, Brewers, and Marlins.