Today's Fantasy Rx

Note: For those of you unfamiliar with FAAB, each team normally begins with $100 to spend throughout the year on all free agent pickups. Most injury replacements or speculative picks go for a buck or two, hot starters go for $5-$10, top prospects go in the $10-$30 range, and we've seen $90+ bids on top players traded into the league.

Arizona: Chad Tracy, 23, 3B-L
71/228 for .311/.364/.434 with 4 HR, 29 RBI, 47 R, 0/1 SB%,
and a 19:19 BB:K at AAA Tucson(PCL).

Although he's played in some of the minors' better hitters' parks over his brief three-year career, Tracy still owns a lifetime BA over .300 and a 79:94 BB:K in 993 at-bats. His current .08 walk rate is acceptable given his excellent .92 contact rate and the power potential suggested by his respectable doubles totals. However the obvious problem here is that Arizona's acquisition of Shea Hillenbrand completely blocks either Tracy or first base prospects Lyle Overbay and Billy Martin. Perhaps the Diamondbacks remain irritated that Tracy commits one error every five games, but they acquired a player five years older than Tracy without adding someone of notably superior skill. If he receives the necessary opportunity, Tracy's worth a significant FAAB bid as we see no reason he shouldn't succeed immediately, but I doubt Arizona will give him that chance any time soon due to the glut of infielders currently at the BOB.

Previously discussed 2003 NL hitting prospects: May: Alex Cintron.

Atlanta: Johnny Estrada, 26, C-S
4/15 for .267/.353/.267 with 0 HR, 2 RBI, 0 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 0:0 BB:K in Atlanta.
58/163 for .356/.429/.540 with 5 HR, 34 RBI, 20 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 16:13 BB:K at AAA Richmond(IL).

While even this performance doesn't justify trading Millwood, all Estrada's skills indicate he's ready to emerge as one of baseball's premiere catchers. I doubt Atlanta will move Javy Lopez since he currently ranks with the best hitters in the game, however Estrada will start for the Braves no later than next spring, and any injury could accelerate that timetable. Given his spot on Atlanta's depth chart and his current skills, certainly try to FAAB Estrada upon his next promotion as he should produce this season and remain a solid fantasy catcher for the next several years.

Previously discussed 2003 NL hitting prospects: May: Donzell McDonald; June:.

Chicago Cubs: Dave Kelton, 23, OF-R
58/191 for .304/.385/.466 with 6 HR, 27 RBI, 26 R, 4/4 SB%,
and a 25:47 BB:K at AAA Iowa(PCL).

Chicago recalled Kelton this week, and with Sosa likely beginning his suspension within days, he should start at least half of the Cubs' games in AL parks at either left field or DH. Since deciding to leave third base for good and return to the outfield a few weeks ago, Kelton's power numbers look much better while he's maintained his solid .13 walk rate. Although his .75 contact rate suggests he should struggle to hold a decent batting average right now, he otherwise looks quite prepared to debut. Owners in deeper leagues should consider a low FAAB bid on Kelton, as even if you can't keep him next season, he could contribute helpful power numbers in limited playing time now.

Previously discussed 2003 NL hitting prospects: May: Midre Cummings.

Cincinnati: Brandon Larson, 27, 3B-R
4/48 for .083/.193/.083 with 0 HR, 5 RBI, 4 R, 1/2 SB%,
and a 7:16 BB:K in Cincinnati.
42/128 for .328/.386/.570 with 7 HR, 24 RBI, 26 R, 2/2 SB%,
and a 13:31 BB:K at AAA Louisville(IL).

The Reds need to accept that their best lineup involves some of the most strikeout-prone hitters in the majors, and as Larson continues pounding the ball in the minors, he deserves another shot in Cincinnati. With a consistently solid walk rate and the same prodigious power as the other young Reds' studs, he at least needs to find a team willing to ignore his contact problems in exchange for the far more important OPS boost at third. He certainly merits a notable FAAB bid if he returns to the majors as an undisputed starter, and if another owner stashed Larson on reserve two months ago, try to snag him as a throw-in during trade talks.

Previously discussed 2003 NL hitting prospects: May: Jacob Cruz.

Colorado: Raul Casanova, 30, C-S
44/135 for .326/.385/.489 with 2 HR, 29 RBI, 21 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 12:12 BB:K at AAA Colorado Springs(PCL).

Aside from Juan Uribe and Greg Vaughn, both promoted last week, and Garrett Atkins, no other Colorado minor league hitter appears likely to reach the majors in the near future. However Bobby Estalella's .197/.271/.434 for the Rockies might lead to a change at back-up catcher, and Casanova should hold a definite edge on Ben Petrick and Mandy Romero due to his combination of defensive prowess, offensive update, and currently impressive stats. We expected Casanova to emerge as a potential double-digit value last year, however his horrendous start and injury problems led to his release. Now he owns even more fantasy potential than in prior years thanks to the possibility of playing home games at Coors, so if Colorado promotes him any time soon, look to FAAB him for a couple bucks.

Previously discussed 2003 NL hitting prospects: May: Garrett Atkins.

Florida: Jason Wood, 33, 3B/1B-R
62/221 for .281/.337/.493 with 11 HR, 41 RBI, 36 R, 3/4 SB%,
and a 16:50 BB:K at AAA Albuquerque(PCL).

Any trade of Mike Lowell will necessitate adding a replacement third baseman from the minors, and as I don't expect Florida to call up Miguel Cabrera straight from AA without giving him any time at Albuquerque, Wood could see several weeks in the majors. Last year he posted a Calgary-inflated .315/.370/.503, and while his batting average is down to a maintainable level this season, he still possesses enough power to contribute for the Marlins. Of course he also could split time at third with Mike Mordecai and Andy Fox, and his .77 contact rate suggests you might want to avoid Wood given his likely BA troubles. Everyone except owners in desperate need of any power boost should ignore a promotion of Wood.

Previously discussed 2003 NL hitting prospects: May: Rob Stratton.

Houston: Raul Chavez, 29, C-R
1/1 for 1.000/1.000/4.000 with 1 HR, 2 RBI, 1 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 1:0 BB:K.
43/125 for .344/.399/.544 with 4 HR, 21 RBI, 20 R, 0/0 SB%,
and an 8:15 BB:K at AAA New Orleans(PCL).

Chavez unsurprisingly slipped through waivers when Houston demoted him earlier this year, and if they either need a replacement or decide to make a change at catcher, we expect him back in the majors since John Buck is barely ready for AAA. However Chavez may just want to finish the year at New Orleans given he could be one of only five players in big league history to post a perfect 5.000 OPS in a single season.

Left-hander Bill Lefebvre hit a solo homer in his only plate appearance in 1938, right-hander Buster Narum hit a two-run shot in his only plate appearance in 1963. Guillermo Mota blasted a three-run shot in his only plate appearance in 1999, and Esteban Yan homered with no one on-base in his only career at-bat in 2000. All four players posted the 5.000 OPS in their first big league plate appearances, however if Yan somehow can avoid batting now that he's with the Cardinals, he could own the singular distinction of retiring as the only big leaguer with a 5.000 career OPS. Of course he also totaled one sacrifice hit in 2000, but his OPS remained intact.

Thanks to his two-run shot and walk, Chavez could complete 2003 as not only the lone position player to post a 5.000 OPS in one year, but as the sole major leaguer to manage that feat while batting more than once and reaching base successfully in every plate appearance. Unfortunately, you still should ignore any call-up since he doesn't possess any notable offensive skills, and given his stat history, he's more likely to post a .000 BA in any further at-bats rather than maintain this perfect pace.

Previously discussed 2003 NL hitting prospects: May: Eric Bruntlett.

Los Angeles: Chad Hermansen, 25, OF-R
26/74 for .351/.392/.581 with 4 HR, 13 RBI, 10 R, 2/3 SB%,
and a 3:10 BB:K at AAA Las Vegas(PCL).

Hermansen looks largely recovered from off-season surgery to repair a torn labrum, and while his walk rate remains a little low, a .86 contact rate is extremely impressive as he never previously exceeded a .77 mark following his 1995 debut. Both his power and speed appear intact, and he hasn't committed an error in 11 games in the outfield. So while I don't envision Hermansen starting for the Dodgers for any extended period, he should reach the majors within weeks as their primary fourth outfielder. A minimum FAAB bid could net you a nice sleeper if Los Angeles suffers another outfield injury.

Previously discussed 2003 NL hitting prospects: May: Bubba Crosby.

Milwaukee: Keith Luuloa, 28, IF
57/204 for .279/.342/.534 with 10 HR, 42 RBI, 36 R, 1/3 SB%,
and a 21:24 BB:K at AAA Indianapolis(IL).

We expect Milwaukee to deal prospective free agent Eric Young at some point this season, and assuming the Brewers don't acquire another second baseman in that deal, Luuloa should compete with Keith Ginter for playing time over the balance of the season. Luuloa owns a career .349 OBP in nearly a thousand minor league games, and while he possesses few secondary skills, his respectable plate discipline and defense makes him worthy of a few months in the majors. However, only FAAB him if you're desperate for a middle infielder with even an average BA and meager power numbers.

Previously discussed 2003 NL hitting prospects: May: Joe Lawrence.

Montreal: Pete Bergeron, 25, OF
62/191 for .325/.399/.435 with 1 HR, 18 RBI, 35 R, 8/10 SB%,
and a 24:32 BB:K at AAA Edmonton(PCL).

Although Bergeron looks like an obvious upgrade over Endy Chavez in center for the Expos, he hasn't displayed much on-base ability since his rookie year in 2000. A .83 contact rate suggests he could maintain an average near .300, however his weak power and unimpressive SB totals don't appear enticing to a tools-oriented organization like Montreal. Bergeron merits a couple bucks of FAAB if promoted due to his BA/SB upside, however I don't believe he'll receive a chance to start in the majors this season.

Previously discussed 2003 NL hitting prospects: May: Terrmel Sledge.

New York Mets: Jose Reyes, 19, SS-S
43/160 for .269/.333/.356 with 0 HR, 13 RBI, 28 R, 26/31 SB%,
and a 15:25 BB:K at AAA Norfolk(IL).

Perhaps the top prospect in baseball, Reyes reaches the majors for the first time today, one day before his 20th birthday, as an expected short-term injury replacement for Rey Sanchez. Realistically, Reyes will remain in the majors indefinitely as long as he demonstrated decent defense and mildly respectable offensive numbers since the Mets appear ready to rebuild and need to give their fans someone to watch. Somewhat ironically, I'm not sure Reyes needs more minor league time. He obviously can steal bases in the majors, and a .09 walk rate his superior to his minor league average. We likely won't see much power from him for a few seasons, but a .275 BA and 50 steals in 2004 are not unreasonable goals. Even owners in single-season leagues should make a significant FAAB investment here if Reyes is available for bidding as Reyes could finish this year with double-digit roto value.

Previously discussed 2003 NL hitting prospects: May: Marcos Scutaro.

Philadelphia: Travis Chapman, 25, 3B
92/311 for .296/.363/.444 with 8 HR, 58 RBI, 44 R, 0/1 SB%,
and a 25:58 BB:K at AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre(IL).

Detroit severely erred by not keeping him as a Rule 5 pick this spring since he looked as prepared for the majors as Ramon Santiago or Omar Infante. Now Chapman ranks among the International League leaders in a few offensive categories, so while his falling plate discipline concerns me, he should start for some team for several seasons. I don't envision a future for him with the Phillies, so you should ignore any call-up to Philadelphia as a short-term injury replacement, yet certainly look to grab him if he changes teams closer to the trading deadline.

Previously discussed 2003 NL hitting prospects: May: Chase Utley.

Pittsburgh: Carlos Rivera, 25, 1B
69/262 for .263/.300/.435 with 9 HR, 31 RBI, 28 R, 3/4 SB%,
and a 13:38 BB:K at AAA Nashville(PCL).

Although Redman should receive the first shot among current Sounds' outfielders, Rivera likely will see Pittsburgh before other infielders here even though his numbers don't approach those of Mike Gulan. Rivera turns 25 today, and I definitely see some upside and a potential starting job in his future, yet he lacks either the power or plate discipline to guarantee continuous employment in the majors. Given the Pirates' corner depth with Randall Simon, Kevin Young, and Craig Wilson, you should ignore any call-up of Rivera.

Previously discussed 2003 NL hitting prospects: May: Tike Redman.

San Diego: Mario Valdez, 28, 1B
56/189 for .296/.378/.460 with 5 HR, 22 RBI, 20 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 25:33 BB:K at AAA Portland(PCL).

The lack of quality upper-level bats in the San Diego system could lead to a promotion of Valdez if the Padres' deal someone like Rondell White and move Klesko back to the outfield. Although Valdez certainly isn't a prospect, he offers solid on-base ability and some power upside to any team with a void at 1B or DH. He even could contribute as a pinch-hitter, however you likely should ignore any call-up here since he could struggle with a low BA unless his contact rate improves.

Previously discussed 2003 NL hitting prospects: May: Jason Bay.

San Francisco: Brian Dallimore, 29, 2B/3B
56/178 for .315/.390/.388 with 2 HR, 27 RBI, 26 R, 2/5 SB%,
and a 21:24 BB:K at AAA Fresno(PCL).

Dallimore likely would be starting in the majors if he'd re-signed with Arizona as a minor league free agent, but instead he joined a tools-focused organization that prefers leading off a great fielder like Neifi Perez than anyone with a reasonable chance of competing offensively. A lack of power also hurts Dallimore, and he also doesn't possess much experience at shortstop. So while his plate discipline and on-base ability should eventually lead to a couple years in the majors for him, you should ignore him this season unless the Giants indicate he'll receive regular playing time after a surprise promotion.

Previously discussed 2003 NL hitting prospects: May: Jason Ellison.

St. Louis: Bo Hart, 26, 2B
79/265 for .298/.332/.445 with 7 HR, 31 RBI, 30 R, 4/6 SB%,
and a 15:54 BB:K at AAA Memphis(PCL).

Few Redbirds' hitters appear ready for the majors, but if St. Louis wants to promote internally at some point this year instead of giving another minor league veteran a few months of service team, Bodhi Hart could see a couple weeks with the Cardinals. Although he only displays occasional plate discipline, he owns decent speed and a little power upside, yet as I don't envision him contributing to successful fantasy teams, you likely should ignore any call-up of Hart.

Previously discussed 2003 NL hitting prospects: May: Jon Nunnally.

Today's Fantasy Rx: A slew of prospects look set to make their 2003 or even Major League debuts this week, however I doubt any of these players will accumulate more than a few bucks of value this season. Owners in shallow single-season leagues like mixed 10-team leagues likely should ignore almost all rookies for the entire season as proven fantasy performers, even those with skills similar to many rookies, usually will outperform their younger brethren as they've passed the normal adjustment period for big league neophytes.