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June
7th
2003
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
Rotohelp
NL LPR through 10 Weeks
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

We modified these ratings slightly since posting our team-by-team LPR scores in January. By reworking the A-Z and a-z ratings, we wanted to be able to easily identify effective starters rather than looking for truly dominant performers, of which we only found a few pitchers in any of the previous few seasons.

1 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2003.
2 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2002.
3 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2001.


QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score.

Note: Starters must pitch in five games before scoring DOM or DIS ratings; relievers must appear in no less than 10 games before earning DOM/DIS consideration. All pitchers are evaluated as relievers aside from those who both reached 5 starts in a given season and qualified for DOM or DIS ratings.

A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2003 starts
B - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2002 starts
C - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2001 starts

X - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2003 starts
Y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2002 starts
Z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2001 starts

a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2003 relief outings
b - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2002 relief outings
c - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2001 relief outings

x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2003 relief outings
y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2002 relief outings
z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2001 relief outings


We've included the five most recent 2003 QA scores for each starter, along with the 10 most recent QA scores for each reliever, tabulating all data through June 5th.


123
abcxyz - Billy Wagner(3345545455)

Wagner moves to his rightful place at the head of the list since he remains the most consistent closer in the league over the last three seasons.


12
AX - Odalis Perez(44525)
Woody Williams

John Smoltz

Williams and Smoltz join Perez as the pitchers who've demonstrated the most consistently high level of skill over the last two years.<>
13
AX - Kevin Brown(55455)


23
AX - Roy Oswalt(34434)
Randy Johnson(4304)
Jason Isringhausen
Robb Nen


1
Mark Prior
Matt Kinney
Mark Redman
Eric Gagne
Guillermo Mota
Mike Koplove
Tim Spooneybarger

While Schilling slipped off this list, Kinney, Gagne, Koplove, and Spooneybarger all joined. If any of these pitchers are somehow unowned in your league, roster them immediately.


2
Matt Morris
Byung-Hyun Kim
Kevin Millwood
Joe Borowski
Steve Reed
Jay Witasick

Williams and Smoltz moved upward, and half of these guys look very close to making similar ascents.


3
Javier Vazquez
Brian Lawrence
Al Leiter
Brad Penny
Greg Maddux
Rheal Cormier
Jeff Fassero
Jose Mesa
Scott Stewart
Vladimir Nunez
Grant Roberts


Tomorrow, like every Sunday, we'll post our preview of the coming week's games and our CDM challenge lineups.


Today's Fantasy Rx: Two Rule 5 picks continue to post extremely impressive numbers as primary set-up men. Montreal's Luis Ayala just finished a streak of 9 consecutive dominant appearances, and while his 16:2 K:BB in 28 IP doesn't indicate overt dominance, maintaining this superb control will keep his fantasy value in the high single digits.

More intriguingly, only Brendan Donnelly, Shigetoshi Hasegawa, and John Smoltz have pitched better in relief than Colorado's Javier Lopez this season. In his 28 appearances, he's posted dominant QA scores 20 times and only suffered two disasters, one 2 each in April and May. His 20:4 K:BB in 23 IP with 11 H, 0 HR, and a 1.61 G-F will rank him at the top of next week's list if he pitches two more innings, he toasts both right-handers(.369 OOPS) and lefties(.367 OOPS), and he doesn't pitch significantly worse in Coors. Lopez has allowed only six baserunners in the last month, and he hasn't allowed a run, earned or unearned, since April 19th. While I don't see him as a particularly valuable roto pitcher due to his relatively limited innings and ever-present risk of Coors' disasters, he looks as solid as any reliever in the game right now. Feel free to roster him if you need a relatively low-risk pitcher for a few weeks, and if he holds his skills, you likely should leave him on your roster unless you possess obviously superior options.


Click here to read the previous article.

Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
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