Today's Fantasy Rx

Note: The beginning of most stat lines includes the following data: H/AB for BA/OBP/SLG.

Anaheim: Jeff DaVanon, OF
29/79 for .367/.407/.557 with 4 HR, 13 RBI, 16 R, 6/6 SB%,
and a 6:16 BB:K.

Although DaVanon owns impressive minor league numbers, he's never produced for the Angels until given his current role as Erstad's replacement. Unfortunately Erstad's pending return will send DaVanon into Orlando Palmeiro's old role, so while his homer and walk totals look good now given his limited at-bats, his playing time appears likely to disappear within the week. He almost never plays against right-handers, a .80 contact rate suggests his batting average will fall, and a questionable 1.71 G-F suggests we won't see much more power from him once he returns to the bench. Deal DaVanon now, particularly if you can find an owner that believes he'll receive significantly more playing time this season.

April Overachiever: Brad Fullmer, 1B/DH
Old stats: 26/70 for .371/.438/.557 with 3 HR, 15 RBI, 12 R, 0/2 SB%,
and a 9:9 BB:K.
Recommendation: wait.
Stats since recommendation: 17/78 for .218 with 1 HR, 8 RBI, 9 R, 4/5 SB%,
and a 12:15 BB:K.

Baltimore: Luis Matos, OF
20/41 for .488/.512/.780 with 2 HR, 6 RBI, 11 R, 3/4 SB%,
and a 2:8 BB:K.

The Orioles promoted Matos two weeks ago after he hit .303/.347/.457 while posting a 6/7 SB% over 175 at-bats at AAA Ottawa(IL). Unfortunately he only managed a 13:34 BB:K in the minors this year, and he hasn't displayed additional plate discipline in the majors. An injury to Larry Bigbie and the previous waiving of Gary Matthews should give Matos most of the year to prove he belongs in Baltimore, yet I don't envision him as a long-term solution since his great OBP is entirely based on an unsupported average. Grab him if he's still available as a free agent, however look to deal him soon as his BA/SB potential should entice prospect hunters to overpay for him right now.

April Overachiever: Melvin Mora, OF/MIF
Old stats: 13/48 for .271/.417/.625 with 4 HR, 10 RBI, 13 R, 1/1 SB%,
and a 10:11 BB:K.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 42/109 for .385 with 5 HR, 16 RBI, 22 R, 2/5 SB%,
and a 16:17 BB:K.

Boston: Bill Mueller, 3B
57/150 for .380/.434/.607 with 3 HR, 22 RBI, 25 R, 1/4 SB%,
and a 15:19 BB:K.

Although he leads the league in batting average and Hillenbrand's departure guarantees a starting job indefinitely for Mueller, a persistently weak G-F suggests he can't maintain this power output. Mueller also hasn't finished with a BA over .300 since his 1996 debut, and the odds he can hold an average anywhere near .400 appear quite low without unexpected improvement in his .87 contact rate. Look to deal Mueller unless your team requires the .290 BA we expect him to post on the balance of the season.

April Overachiever: Shea Hillenbrand, 3B
Old stats: 31/93 for .333/.366/.495 with 2 HR, 25 RBI, 11 R, 1/1 SB%,
and a 5:15 BB:K.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 26/100 for .260 with 1 HR, 13 RBI, 9 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 4:12 BB:K.

Chicago White Sox: D'Angelo Jimenez, 2B
56/187 for .299/.386/.497 with 6 HR, 19 RBI, 27 R, 2/5 SB%,
and a 27:25 BB:K.

Jimenez only appears here due to the struggles of nearly all his teammates. None of these numbers are below what we expected given his move from an extreme pitchers' park to a very friendly environment for hitters, especially when considering he only turned 25 last December. Although he isn't stealing many bases, he possesses good plate patience and developing power, and his value only should increase in upcoming seasons. Definitely wait at this time unless you can grab Jimenez at a discount from an owner worried the problems throughout the Chicago's offense will drag down Jimenez's numbers.

April Overachiever: Sandy Alomar, Jr., C
Old stats: 13/38 for .342/.375/.526 with 1 HR, 6 RBI, 6 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 2:1 BB:K.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 5/35 for .143 with 0 HR, 2 RBI, 2 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 1:1 BB:K before hitting the DL on May 31st.

Cleveland: Ben Broussard, 1B
18/58 for .310/.359/.569 with 3 HR, 9 RBI, 7 R, 1/1 SB%,
and a 5:9 BB:K.

Hafner's injury and delayed rehab gives Broussard an undisputed full-time starting job for the first time, and he's producing approximately the numbers expected given his recent minor league performance. The 26-year-old doesn't look like he'll emerge into the star these numbers suggest, and his average should slip unless his .84 contact rate improves, but Broussard and Hafner should end up sharing first and DH for the Indians over the next few years. Of course, while Broussard could please fantasy owners by maintaining a .900+ OPS throughout the season, his value won't substantially increase under almost any circumstances, so explore a deal if you can find adequate value for a $15 first baseman.

April Overachiever: Milton Bradley, OF
Old stats: 30/80 for .375/.433/.613 with 3 HR, 7 RBI, 16 R, 0/1 SB%,
and a 8:13 BB:K.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 23/77 for .299 with 1 HR, 15 RBI, 13 R, 5/6 SB%,
and a 18:14 BB:K.

Detroit: Craig Monroe, OF
22/111 for .198/.268/.333 with 4 HR, 15 RBI, 9 R, 0/0 SB%,
and an 11:33 BB:K.

Releasing Craig Paquette and benching Dean Palmer provided an opening for a new starting outfielder, and Monroe's emerged as a frequent starter in Alan Trammell's evolving offense. Detroit promoted him after he pounded International League pitching for a .400/.449/.667 over the first two weeks of the season, and while we believe he can develop into a decent starter in the majors, his performance thus far indicates he shouldn't remain in any regular lineup until he cuts his strikeouts. A .70 contact rate is unacceptable for anyone without great power and/or a walk rate well over .15. Contenders should deal or cut Monroe since he simply doesn't seem currently capable of maintaining adequate averages for the Tigers.

April Overachiever: Eric Munson, 3B
Old stats: 9/57 for .158/.246/.316 with 2 HR, 8 RBI, 5 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 6:8 BB:K.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 24/88 for .273 with 4 HR, 11 RBI, 7 R, 3/3 SB%,
and a 14:15 BB:K.

Kansas City: Desi Relaford, 2B/UT
47/161 for .292/.358/.429 with 3 HR, 15 RBI, 26 R, 7/7 SB%,
and a 15:21 BB:K.

Holding a 20+ steal pace is the only overall surprise either than his regular playing time, but Relaford's skill trends over the last few years suggest he's capable of posting double-digit value for the next few years. We expected improvement in his performance this season after he managed respectable roto numbers in Safeco; moving to Kauffman Stadium should provide nearly a 40% boost in homers, a park effect that already benefited Raul Ibanez to a great extent. Relaford also remains quite useful to fantasy teams since he qualifies at most infield positions, and given his combination of batting average and speed, look to acquire him, particularly if your roster could use such a flexible player.

April Overachiever: Brent Mayne, C
Old stats: 20/58 for .345/400/.603 with 4 HR, 11 RBI, 10 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 5:9 BB:K.
Recommendation: wait.
Stats since recommendation: 12/72 for .167 with 0 HR, 2 RBI, 1 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 4:10 BB:K.

Minnesota: Dustan Mohr, OF
47/149 for .315/.342/.523 with 7 HR, 18 RBI, 24 R, 2/2 SB%,
and a 5:38 BB:K.

Few expected Mohr to emerge from a AA stud to a Rookie of the Year candidate and now a vital contributor on the AL Central's best team. Unfortunately his skills don't suggest he will maintain this success much longer. A .74 contact rate suggests his average will settle close to the .265 career BA he owned prior to this season, and although we like Mohr's power potential, he remains very at risk to lose playing time. Look to deal him to any team needing an upgrade on their 5th outfielder.

April Overachiever: Bobby Kielty, OF/DH
Old stats: 21/62 for .339/.431/.613 with 4 HR, 11 RBI, 10 R, 1/1 SB%,
and a 10:14 BB:K.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 16/76 for .211 with 4 HR, 17 RBI, 16 R, 1/1 SB%,
and a 18:19 BB:K.

New York Yankees: Raul Mondesi, OF
62/212 for .292/.368/.528 with 10 HR, 31 RBI, 36 R, 14/18 SB%,
and a 24:39 BB:K.

The perception of Mondesi's declining skill and questionable playing time provided a nice bargain for fantasy owners in many leagues this year. Torre's Yankees continually field several speedy players, and the additional plate appearances afforded New York batters provide more opportunities for steals. However Mondesi's .82 contact rate isn't an improvement over last year's mark, and while we see promising power development in his career-best G-F, his average will decline as he approaches free agency for the first time. Of course, few players currently appear capable of contributing in five categories, so wait on Mondesi as his owners gain a definite advantage in most leagues.

April Overachiever: Alfonso Soriano, 2B
Old stats: 45/116 for .388/.450/.690 with 9 HR, 25 RBI, 26 R, 6/7 SB%,
and a 9:21 BB:K.
Recommendation: wait.
Stats since recommendation: 31/138 for .225 with 8 HR, 15 RBI, 22 R, 9/10 SB%,
and a 10:32 BB:K.

Oakland: Eric Byrnes, OF
50/146 for .342/.402/.582 with 5 HR, 16 RBI, 25 R, 4/5 SB%,
and a 16:17 BB:K.

After annihilating winter ball over a year ago, Byrnes looked prepared to emerge as a steady contributor for the A's. Instead he barely remained in the majors last season, however he now owns one of the best batting averages in the league and looks like one of the key's to Oakland's playoff hopes in 2003. Although he isn't particularly patient, all his skills suggest he deserves to keep a starting job indefinitely, and he even owns sufficient power/speed upside to exceed $20 this year. Byrnes' current stats probably mean he'll cost too much in trade for you to target him, but wait if you already own him since he'll maintain solid marks all season.

April Overachiever: Ramon Hernandez, C
Old stats: 25/70 for .357/.418/.557 with 3 HR, 11 RBI, 13 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 6:13 BB:K.
Recommendation: wait.
Stats since recommendation: 21/94 for .223 with 3 HR, 11 RBI, 9 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 5:13 BB:K.

Seattle: Bret Boone, 2B
67/216 for .310/.377/.597 with 15 HR, 45 RBI, 47 R, 5/6 SB%,
and a 23:36 BB:K.

Even though he won't even come close to starting the All-Star game this year, Boone may have the strongest MVP case of anyone in the league. His resurgence appears directly linked to Seattle's great start, and if he remains among the league leaders in most offensive categories, we'll see him finish as one of the most valuable fantasy players for the second time in three seasons. The obvious change is that his G-F, after jumping from 1.13 to 1.68 in 2002, has returned to his 2001 level this year. His contact rate also has improved, combining with his increased flyball tendency to let him challenge for the MLB homer lead. I doubt many owners possess an adequate package of players to trade for Boone, as anyone lucky enough to own him should wait with the expectation that he'll maintain this value throughout the season.

April Overachiever: Edgar Martinez, DH
Old stats: 22/61 for .361/.494/.525 with 2 HR, 14 RBI, 7 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 17:8 BB:K.
Recommendation: wait.
Stats since recommendation: 35/113 for .310 with 12 HR, 33 RBI, 21 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 13:21 BB:K.

Tampa Bay: Rocco Baldelli, OF
74/220 for .336/.363/.468 with 3 HR, 32 RBI, 27 R, 7/10 SB%,
and a 9:45 BB:K.

We obviously didn't expect Baldelli to post numbers overly comparable to his 2002 MLE of .305/.321/.458, yet he's running away with a Rookie of the Year award already engraved to Hideki Matsui. A .04 walk rate demonstrates that he's nowhere near a complete ballplayer, however a .80 contact rate, when combined with his power potential and blinding speed, should enable him to maintain a helpful BA throughout the year. His May averages all were well below his April marks, so anyone competing for this season should explore a potential deal, but also recognize that he'll earn at least $15 and up to three times that value every year for the foreseeable future.

April Overachiever: Rey Ordonez, SS
Old stats: 27/86 for .314/.330/.523 with 3 HR, 19 RBI, 12 R, 0/1 SB%,
and a 2:10 BB:K.
Recommendation: deal him immediately.
Stats since recommendation: 10/31 for .323 with 0 HR, 3 RBI, 2 R, 0/1 SB%,
and a 0:2 BB:K before hitting the DL on May 9th.

Texas: Mike Young, 2B
69/211 for .327/.357/.460 with 4 HR, 24 RBI, 33 R, 5/6 SB%,
and an 11:41 BB:K.

Somehow Young owns the second best BA on the Rangers despite a .05 walk rate and .80 contact rate, both below what we expected given his career trends. Even his G-F increased well above the 1.44 and 1.64 he posted over the last two years, so he lacks any promising skill development. I suspect this performance is a result of the confluence between Young's age-26 season and his third year in the big leagues, while also considering his place in Texas' impressive lineup. However, as I don't see the improved skills that could suggest he might maintain these averages, expect Young to slump noticeably over the second half. Anyone contending this year should deal him now.

April Overachiever: Hank Blalock, 3B
Old stats: 30/78 for .385/.442/.628 with 5 HR, 12 RBI, 17 R, 0/1 SB%,
and an 8:11 BB:K.
Recommendation: wait.
Stats since recommendation: 36/108 for .333 with 4 HR, 22 RBI, 16 R, 0/1 SB%,
and a 10:18 BB:K.

Toronto: Tom Wilson, C
34/110 for .309/.379/.491 with 3 HR, 16 RBI, 19 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 12:37 BB:K.

Although Greg Myers' numbers look even more impressive, he owns an extended major league history of success. Wilson never held a regular big league job until this season, and while we've liked his skills for years, his unimpressive rookie season a year ago lowered our expectations as he also turned 32 last December. Fortunately Toronto gave him the necessary opportunity to shine, and now he combines with Myers to give the Blue Jays the most production from catcher on any team in the majors. Wilson averages nearly 4.5 pitches each at-bats, hits more flyballs than grounders, and hold a 10% walk rate, so even though his contact rate is down to a meager .63, he'll remain a good player for Toronto. Unfortunately that terrible contact rate leaves his BA at severe risk of dropping, so most owners should look to deal Wilson before his average plummets past .300.

April Overachiever: Carlos Delgado, 1B
Old stats: 32/88 for .364/.481/.682 with 7 HR, 25 RBI, 20 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 19:21 BB:K.
Recommendation: wait.
Stats since recommendation: 37/123 for .301 with 0 HR, 32 RBI, 31 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 21:28 BB:K.

We'll continue tomorrow with National League overachieving batters.

Today's Fantasy Rx: The 2003 First-year Player Draft airs Tuesday at 1PM EDT on MLB Radio here. While we're not running a formal preview, Tampa will make a severe error by selecting anyone but Rickie Weeks. Baltimore's last-hour signing of de facto draft-and-follow LHP Adam Loewen leaves Weeks and HS OF Delmon Young as the only viable candidates in the first round, and Weeks likely can play second base in the majors and develop into an All-Star thanks to his offense. Young, Dmitri's little brother, may be the best pure hitter in the draft, but we already know he won't contribute to a club's defense. With the Rays lacking a future double-play partner for B.J. Upton, they need to select Weeks to fill this long-term hole, particularly since they possess half-a-dozen top outfield prospects without considering Baldelli, Crawford, or Huff. Milwaukee can take Young, Wake Forest RHP Kyle Sleeth, or HS RH Jeff Allison, Detroit will take Young if available, although they're likely stuck with Sleeth, Allison, or Richmond RHP Tim Stauffer. San Diego likely will take the best college righty, either Sleeth or Stauffer. Kansas City could grab Florida HS OF Ryan Harvey, but recent reports suggest they'll instead grab Pennsylvania HS OF Chris Lubanski.

Our Cubs pick sixth, and while we expect them to select Tulane 1B Michael Aubrey, we see a lot more upside in Harvey, and if he's not chosen, we see no reason the Cubs shouldn't take one of the top two projected power hitters in the draft. Harvey is the only player we see here as a potential replacement for Sosa in three-to-four years. In the third round Chicago almost needs to select a catcher given the glaring need in the system. Mitch Maier from Toledo tops our wish list due to his disciplined bat, though he'll be long gone by our pick. However Colt Morton of NC State and Landon Powell of South Carolina are reasonable alternatives, or we could target a solid defender like Tony Richie of Florida State or Javi Herrera of Tennessee. We certainly wouldn't object to a high school prospect in a later round, however the Cubs are loaded with pitching prospects, we don't see many impressive shortstop prospects this year, and we like the organizational depth at most other positions. Nabbing a potentially great hitter and a college catcher will make this draft a success for the Cubs.

The White Sox pick 15th in the first round, and while we've seen rumors of San Diego State OF Anthony Gwynn, we expect Chicago to select another college outfielder like Arizona's Brad Anderson, however they could jump on any highly-ranked college hitter that falls. Following the drafting of one or two position players at the top of their draft, the White Sox need to return to their model of recently successful drafts by loading up on pitching, selecting a variety of established collegians and a few high schoolers with greater upside.

We will be quite disappointed if Anthony Gwynn, rated as the 59th best prospect by Baseball America, does not go to the Padres in the second round at pick #41.