Today's Fantasy Rx

Today I'm reviewing pitchers who, over the past three years, saw their ERA drop by at least 1.50 from May to June. We only looked at pitchers who compiled at least a total of 30 IP in both months over the past three years.

A few players qualified for today's list strictly due to their similar placement on last month's Wilting Mayflowers list. Instead of discussing them in detail again, I'll briefly summarize my current recommendations before continuing with new players.

Darren Oliver, LH Starter, COL: -3.73 ERA. May: deal him now.
June: wait.

Terry Adams, RH Reliever, PHI: -1.84 ERA. May: wait.
June: wait.

Albie Lopez, RH Reliever, KC: -1.58 ERA. May: deal.
June: wait.

Doug Davis, LH Starter, TOR: -4.85 ERA
00-02	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
May	11/12	53	78/8	28:34	2-7/0	7.47
June	5-5	34.1	31/2	24:13	1-1/0	2.62

03May	2-3	23	27/3	8:12	2-3/0	4.70

SkyDome currently ranks as the most prolific offensive park in the majors, and Davis doesn't possess the dominance necessary to overcome the problems of his home park and the Jays' defense. A 32003 QA log this month demonstrates his limited upside, and he won't help too many fantasy teams even if he can win 2-3 games a month. Yet he might take advantage of interleague play to lower his qualitative marks, so wait on Davis if already own him to see if he can follow his normal trend.

Billy Koch, RH Closer, CHW: -4.39 ERA
00-02	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
May	0/38	42.1	47/5	35:19	2-0/14	5.74
June	0/35	40	34/2	44:15	4-2/20	1.35

03May	0/11	10	6/1	7:3	0-0/3	1.80

After a disastrous April that included an 8.25 ERA thanks to allowing 5 homers in 12 IP, Koch recovered in May to clearly reclaim his closer's job as he demonstrated his superb form of a year ago. His previously weak G-F increased back over 1.00 on the year, and I see no obvious weakness in his skills. Make sure you don't overpay, but if you need saves, Koch still looks like an excellent target to acquire.

Jose Mesa, RH Closer, PHI: - ERA
00-02	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
May	0/31	40.1	46/6	33:21	3-6/20	5.58
June	0/33	38.1	23/4	44:13	1-1/10	1.88

03May	0/11	10	13/0	9:5	0-2/7	7.20

Mesa's success in seven of his eight save opportunities illustrates that Mesa only struggled in a couple outings, and he allowed a total of 7 earned runs against only one inning of work in his two May losses. On the year he still owns a poor 12:10 K:BB in 21 IP, but he's allowed few homers since returning to the NL in 2001, and a lack of dominance does not preclude effectiveness as a closer. Historical trends also suggest Mesa's qualitative marks will improve next month despite his questionable current skills, so look to acquire him if your team needs saves.

Armando Benitez, RH Closer, NYM: -2.87 ERA
00-02	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
May	0/32	31.2	28/9	34:9	1-2/14	5.12
June	0/35	36	20/3	49:23	1-2/20	2.25

03May	0/15	16.2	7/0	17:8	1-0/7	.54

We can attribute almost the entire difference in Benitez's historical ERAs to his elevated May homer rate, and his May dominance this year looks more like a response to the combination of control problems and little defensive support this April. My only concern regarding Benitez's continued success is the chance of the Mets dealing him into middle relief on some team. However we don't believe they'll treat him that badly and illustrated our confidence in him remaining in New York for a couple months by dealing for him in an NL-only 4x4 league last week. So we obviously believe he's a respectable target to acquire now even if his value has dramatically increased since the end of April.

Roberto Hernandez, RH Reliever, ATL: -2.66 ERA
00-02	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
May	0/33	36	36/5	36:12	1-0/13	4.50
June	0/32	34.1	31/3	25:8	3-0/17	1.84

03May	0/14	13.1	14/4	9:11	3-2/0	6.08

Hernandez lucked into three wins this month thanks to Atlanta's fantastic offense, but his 13:8 K:BB in 13 IP with 9 H and 2 HR from April doesn't suggest the fundamentally sound skills that would allow his ERA to drop next month. His overall 7.6 K/9 and a 1.79 G-F suggest he won't kill your qualitative marks, however I don't see him closing for the Braves under any circumstances, and I don't believe additional vultured wins will compensate for his lack of contributions elsewhere. You can wait on Hernandez due to his respectable skill history and outstanding teammates, although I wouldn't seek to add him in any league.

Antonio Alfonseca, RH Reliever, CHC: -2.52 ERA
00-02	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
May	0/35	39.1	43/6	23:15	2-3/19	4.12
June	0/34	33.2	34/0	31:9	4-0/17	1.60

03May	0/13	13.1	11/2	8:3	0-0/0	4.05

He should resume closing at some point this year, and considering his decent current skills, I can't imagine a better time to acquire him. Alfonseca easily could replicate his normal June ERA trend now that he's healthy in a comfortable short relief role, and while a 1.36 G-F is rather poor compared to his career norm, I still don't see much downside here. I don't see a huge rush to go get him, but you could maximize his qualitative contribution to your team by making a move now.

Julian Tavarez, RH Swingman, PIT: -2.42 ERA
00-02	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
May	9/17	63	66/8	40:28	4-5/0	6.43
June	12/19	85.1	91/9	49:36	9-3/0	4.01

03May	0/11	9.1	15/0	5:2	0-1/0	4.82

I still have little idea as to why Pittsburgh kept Tavarez at the end of Spring Training rather than historically effective relievers like Mark Corey or closing prospect Duaner Sanchez. Tavarez consistently allows too many hits to maintain much value even with his solid 2.0 BB/9, and while a career-best 4.82 G-F limits his downside, Tavarez simply lacks notable fantasy potential. You can wait in the hope that Tavarez might improve in June, but I don't see him earning more than a buck or two any time soon.

Ramon Ortiz, RH Starter, ANA: -2.19 ERA
00-02	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
May	12/12	77.1	76/20	61:26	4-4/0	5.59
June	11/11	76.2	72/11	44:26	6-2/0	3.40

03May	5/5	27	40/5	14:9	0-3/0	6.33

We expected a career year from Ortiz this year but a 01241 QA log this month suggests he'll be lucky to break double-digit value. A career-worst .90 G-F continues a tendency towards groundballs we've observed increasing since his 1999 debut. He allows too many flyballs and doesn't strike out enough batters to limit his qualitative damage. As Anaheim even only owns a league average defense this year, you can wait to see if Ortiz still will rebound in 2003, but I would not actively pursue him in trade talks.

Brad Penny, RH Starter, FLO: -2.18 ERA
00-02	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
May	14/14	73.2	75/9	60:37	3-6/0	5.13
June	11/11	58	52/4	49:23	4-2/0	2.95

03May	6/6	37	35/2	24:13	1-2/0	3.41

Penny debuted in the majors in 2000, reached his 88th start this month, and yet he only turned 25 earlier this week. He also posted a very impressive 333553 QA log this month, and his skills appear very close to excellent overall levels. Unfortunately I don't see him improving noticeably in June, and the Marlins' weak offense limits his wins. I believe Penny remains a valuable starter right now, however wait, particularly if you own him, since his value appears stabilized for the moment.

Pitchers whose ERAs normally drop between 1.50 and 2.00 points in June include Rocky Biddle(-1.90), Adam Eaton(-1.90), Brett Tomko(-1.81), Elmer Dessens(-1.77), Paul Wilson(-1.76), Brian Lawrence(-1.71), Sean Lowe(-1.63), Tim Hudson(-1.57), Braden Looper(-1.57), and Tanyon Sturtze(-1.52).

Currently injured players who qualified include Todd Ritchie(-2.09 ERA).

Today's Fantasy Rx: Benitez, Koch, Mesa, and Alfonseca have struggled more this year than almost any other closers designated in the preseason. While we don't see Alfonseca seeing more 9th inning time in the near future, the other three could see welcome improvement next month. Take advantage of historical trends to try to grab one or more of these guys cheaply now as we expect their respective values to jump.