Today's Fantasy Rx

Anaheim: Mickey Callaway, RH Reliever.
1-3 on an 15:11 K:BB in 26.1 IP over 8 G(4GS)
with 33 H, 6 HR, and a 52-24 G-F; 5.13 ERA.

While Callaway pitched so poorly as a starter that Anaheim exiled him to long relief, the Angels still will keep him in the majors since they don't want to risk losing him since Callway's out of options. While he only pitches about once a week, he's pitched progressively better over the past three weeks. Unfortunately he simply isn't seeing enough playing time to merit a roster spot in both leagues, so you should deal or cut him in favor of someone with superior skills and a better chance of appearing in more than a game a week.

April Underachiever: John Lackey, RH Starter
Old stats: 1-2 on a 16:15 K:BB in 24.1 IP over 5 G
with 36 H, 6 HR, and a 28-38 G-F; 8.51 ERA.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 1-2 on a 24:5 K:BB in 30.2 IP over 5 GS
with 39 H, 6 HR, and a 4.70 ERA.

Baltimore: Buddy Groom, LH Reliever
1-2 on a 9:3 K:BB in 13.1 IP over 17 G
with 14 H, 1 HR, and a 22-15 G-F; 6.08 ERA.

One of the most consistent middle relievers over the past couple years, Groom's qualitative disaster looks likely to drive many owners to release him. While I understand the appeal of dumping a 6.00+ ERA, all of Groom's skills remain very close to his past ratios, and his poor early performance suggests we could see some excellent stats from over the balance of the year. Particularly in 4x4 leagues, Groom should be an intriguing target to acquire right now.

April Underachiever: Rodrigo Lopez, RH Starter
Old stats: 0-3 on a 15:7 K:BB in 22.1 IP over 4 GS
with 30 H, 4 HR, and a 40-25 G-F; 7.66 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 0-0 on a 5:2 K:BB in 7 IP over 2 GS
with 11 H, 1 HR, and a 6.43 ERA before hitting the DL May 3rd with a strained oblique.

Boston: Alan Embree, LH Reliever
3-1 on a 9:5 K:BB in 11.1 IP over 14 G
with 16 H, 2 HR, and an 18-12 G-F; 7.15 ERA.

While Embree spent the second half of April on the DL with left shoulder tendinitis, he hasn't posted improved stats since returning from his injury. Although his 5:2 K:BB in 6.1 May IP is fine, his 10 hits and 4 ER this month aren't helpful numbers, and both his 7.2 K/9 and 4.0 BB/9 suggest he may not be fully healthy. Exercise caution in deploying him over the next few weeks, and while I wouldn't dump him off many rosters, don't wait too much longer if you see preferable alternatives available.

April Underachiever: Ramiro Mendoza, RH Reliever
Old stats: 0-0 on a 4:4 K:BB in 10 IP over 9 G
with 20 H, 2 HR, and a 16-14 G-F; 12.60 ERA.
Recommendation: wait.
Stats since recommendation: 1-1 on an 11:4 K:BB in 17.2 IP over 11 G
with 22 H, 1 HR, and a 4.58 ERA.

Chicago White Sox: Billy Koch, RH Closer
1-1 and 5 Saves on a 17:7 K:BB in 17.1 IP over 20 G
with 20 H, 6 HR, and a 19-24 G-F; 6.75 ERA.

Koch appears back in his closer's job, but his poor ERA still makes him a good target to acquire. His strikeout rate indicates he still dominates hitters, and his saves should increase once the Sox break out of their haze. Unfortunately I doubt we'll see his ERA drop below 4.00 this year due to his homer rate. A .79 G-F continues a career-long trend where Koch's G-F ratio has dropped every season since he posted a 1.94 during his 1999 debut. Koch is a one-dimensional closer, and although he'll perform adequately as the Sox's closer, he simply isn't a particularly good reliever.

April Underachiever: Jon Garland, RH Starter
Old stats: 0-2 on a 10:9 K:BB in 19.2 IP over 4 GS
with 23 H, 4 HR, and a 28-31 G-F; 7.32 ERA.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 2-2 on a 10:8 K:BB in 21.1 IP over 4 GS
with 22 H, 5 HR, and a 5.06 ERA.

Cleveland: Danys Baez, RH Closer
0-4 and 8 Saves on a 19:9 K:BB in 22 IP over 21 G
with 21 H, 3 HR, and a 24-27 G-F; 5.32 ERA.

Although Baez's skills all appear close to returning to the solid levels he displayed in 2001, the Indians' weaker defense will leave his qualitative marks rather inflated. While he won't allow too many homers or walks, the only categories in which we can expect much help from him are saves and strikeouts. I like his long-term upside better than several other current closers, however I'm also worried about the potential of David Riske or even Bob Wickman next year stealing save opportunities. Baez's currently elevated ERA makes him a decent target to acquire at the moment, but you also should consider packaging him for a more established closer in a month or two after his value increases.

April Underachiever: David Riske, RH Reliever
Old stats: 0-0 on a 9:2 K:BB in 8.2 IP over 6 G
with 7 H, 2 HR, and an 8-16 G-F; 6.23 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 1-0 on a 14:1 K:BB in 13 IP over 11 G
with 8 H, 1 HR, and a 2.08 ERA.

Detroit: Mike Maroth, LH Starter
0-9 on a 29:11 K:BB in 59.2 IP over 10 GS
with 60 H, 8 HR, and a 102-59 G-F; 5.73 ERA.

An 0-9 record and 5.73 ERA are mindboggling numbers from a starter with a 1.19 WHIP, especially since his current 5-start QA log of 04432 log indicates some upside. Of course both 4 starts occurred against Baltimore, but his 1.7 BB/9 and 1.73 G-F both are excellent marks. His 4.4 strikeout rate even is superior to his 4.1 K/9 in 2002, and while his homer rate is elevated, we expected to see some problems there thanks to the shorter left field fence in Comerica. Maroth's lack of dominance will keep him from emerging as a great starter, however his solid base skills suggest significantly more upside than his stats currently display, making him an intriguing player to acquire if you don't mind the lack of wins.

April Underachiever: Matt Anderson, RH Closer
Old stats: 0-1 and 1 Saves on a 3:3 K:BB in 7 IP over 7 G
with 11 H, 3 HR, and a 9-10 G-F; 6.43 ERA.
Recommendation: wait.
Stats since recommendation: 0-0 and 2 Saves on a 1:2 K:BB in 4.2 IP over 5 G
with 8 H, 0 HR, and a 5.79 ERA before Detroit demoted him on May 7th.

Kansas City: Kris Wilson, RH Reliever
0-0 on a 16:5 K:BB in 21.1 IP over 11 G
with 26 H, 2 HR, and a 27-23 G-F; 4.64 ERA.

Career-best marks of a 6.8 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, and a 3.2 K:BB indicate that Wilson finally appears ready to hold a relief job for a full season. Excellent work from Jason Grimsley and D.J. Carrasco leaves Wilson to pitch earlier innings on an irregular basis, and yet he appears rather comfortable in this new role. Of course Kauffman Stadium remains very friendly to hitters, so since Wilson lacks the dominance of his fellow relievers, I don't see much reason for keeping him rostered except in the deepest of leagues. Most owners should deal or cut him since I don't envision Wilson contributing to many successful fantasy teams.

April Underachiever: Jeremy Affeldt, LH Starter
Old stats: 2-0 on a 14:7 K:BB in 19.1 IP over 4 GS
with 18 H, 0 HR, and a 27-18 G-F; 5.12 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 1-2 on a 17:2 K:BB in 23 IP over 3 GS
with 29 H, 3 HR, and a 3.52 ERA.

Minnesota: Tony Fiore, RH Reliever
1-1 on a 15:10 K:BB in 21 IP over 13 G
with 22 H, 3 HR, and a 24-29 G-F; 5.57 ERA.

Fiore ranked as one of the best relievers in baseball last season, but he simply isn't performing at an acceptable level this year. Interestingly his skills seem mostly superior to his 2002 marks, however we can attribute much of this difference to Twins' defensive problems as Fiore's 9.4 hit rate is significantly higher than his 7.3 mark of a year ago. Minnesota needs to recall one of their top relief prospects like Michael Nakamura and send Fiore back to the minors until he demonstrates better skills, so anyone still employing Fiore needs to deal or cut him in favor of someone with solid skills.

April Underachiever: Brad Radke, RH Starter
Old stats: 1-2 on a 12:8 K:BB in 20.2 IP over 4 GS
with 29 H, 6 HR, and a 25-29 G-F; 7.84 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 4-1 on an 18:10 K:BB in 35 IP over 5 GS
with 37 H, 6 HR, and a 4.11 ERA.

New York Yankees: Jeff Weaver, RH Starter
3-2 on a 37:20 K:BB in 57.2 IP over 9 GS
with 72 H, 2 HR, and a 78-73 G-F; 5.15 ERA.

Despite media reports to the contrary, the Yankees' defense has fallen to the AL's second worst this year as New York fielders have converted over 2% less balls in play into outs this year. While the dominant starters continue to succeed, both Andy Pettitte and Jeff Weaver qualify as victims of the defense thanks to their terrible hit rates. Of course Weaver's career-worst marks of a 5.8 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, and a 1.07 G-F all suggest he's not pitching too well, and his current 5-start 02221 QA log indicates he doesn't merit deployment in any league right now. Yet I still see intriguing upside here, so particularly if you're in a keeper league and Weaver's owner is panicking, try to acquire him while his value is low since I only expect him to improve this year.

April Underachiever: Juan Acevedo, RH Closer
Old stats: 0-1 and 3 Saves on a 7:1 K:BB in 8 IP over 9 G
with 9 H, 1 HR, and a 10-9 G-F; 5.63 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 0-2 on a 10:8 K:BB in 12.2 IP over 12 G
with 19 H, 3 HR, and a 10.66 ERA.

Oakland: Ricardo Rincon, LH Reliever
2-3 on a 14:10 K:BB in 16.2 IP over 17 G
with 11 H, 1 HR, and an 18-18 G-F; 4.32 ERA.

A 5.4 walk rate doesn't even rank as Rincon's career high, yet only Oakland's fantastic defense keeps Rincon's WHIP from reaching truly painful territory. However Rincon still owns lefties, limiting them to a meager .276 OPS this year. Unfortunately the Athletics refuse to employ him as a specialist, so his .801 OPS allowed against right-handers is ruining his stats. Oakland shows no sign or willingness to use Rincon in a role in which he'd see the most success, so while I believe he's capable of rebounding, most owners should deal or cut him in favor of a skilled right-handed with more quantitative upside.

April Underachiever: Mike Neu, RH Reliever
Old stats: 0-0 on a 2:0 K:BB in 4 IP over 4 G
with 2 H, 0 HR, and an 8-0 G-F; 2.25 ERA.
Recommendation: wait.
Stats since recommendation: 0-0 on a 4:2 K:BB in 7 IP over 5 G
with 4 H, 0 HR, and a 0.00 ERA.

Seattle: Giovanni Carrara, RH Reliever
2-0 on an 8:11 K:BB in 23.1 IP over 18 G
with 30 H, 5 HR, and a 38-34 G-F; 6.17 ERA.

Carrara didn't exactly demonstrate great skills with Los Angeles last year, and while his current park is nearly as forgiving as Dodger Stadium, a 3.1 K/9 and .7 K:BB suggest Seattle needs to promote a permanent replacement. The only ratio I expect will improve here is Carrara's 1.9 HR/9, which seems high for someone with a decent 1.12 G-F. However even a drop in both his hit and homer rates won't compensate for his non-existent control or dominance. Deal or cut Carrara immediately.

April Underachiever: Freddy Garcia, RH Starter
Old stats: 1-3 on a 16:15 K:BB in 29.1 IP over 5 GS
with 29 H, 5 HR, and a 46-35 G-F; 4.30 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 2-4 on a 19:9 K:BB in 28.2 IP over 5 GS
with 29 H, 7 HR, and a 7.53 ERA.

Tampa Bay: Victor Zambrano, RH Reliever
1-2 on a 14:26 K:BB in 34.1 IP over 10 G(5GS)
with 35 H, 5 HR, and a 60-43 G-F; 6.29 ERA.

Two years ago Zambrano looked ready to close, and late last year he demonstrated intriguingly solid skills over several starts. Unfortunately Zambrano looked terrible in his five starts this year, and while he owns a 3.86 ERA in 7 relief innings, he also only managed a 3:4 K:BB over those outings. While I see no reason he can't reestablished himself in the bullpen, Tampa also has six relievers already posting better stats, so I don't see an opportunity for Zambrano to contribute to most fantasy teams in the near future. Deal or cut him, and don't consider adding him again until we see a sharp improvement in his skills.

April Underachiever: Jesus Colome, RH Reliever
Old stats: 0-1 on a 7:7 K:BB in 12.2 IP over 8 G
with 17 H, 4 HR, and a 12-28 G-F; 6.40 ERA.
Recommendation: deal or cut.
Stats since recommendation: 1-1 on an 11:2 K:BB in 11.2 IP over 5 G
with 7 H, 0 HR, and a 1.54 ERA.

Texas: Colby Lewis, RH Starter
3-3 on a 30:32 K:BB in 41 IP over 9 GS
with 53 H, 8 HR, and a 56-48 G-F; 7.68 ERA.

Lewis looked like one of the best starting prospects in the game entering this season, and while I didn't expect great qualitative marks from him thanks to playing his home games in Arlington, I also didn't believe Lewis receiving some Rookie of the Year votes was unreasonable. Instead he hasn't even completed five innings in four starts, and his severe control problems leave him particularly vulnerable to the failings of baseball's worst defense. At least his 6.6 K/9 and 1.17 G-F indicate moderate long-term upside, however only owners already rebuilding should consider keeping Lewis; everyone else should deal or cut him considering his horrific qualitative stats.

April Underachiever: Chan Ho Park, RH Starter
Old stats: 1-3 on a 13:16 K:BB in 23.2 IP over 5 GS
with 27 H, 2 HR, and a 28-31 G-F; 6.47 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 0-0 on a 2:5 K:BB in 4 IP over 1 GS
with 4 H, 1 HR, and an 11.25 ERA before hitting the DL April 29th with a strained lower back.

Toronto: Mark Hendrickson, LH Starter
4-4 on a 25:11 K:BB in 55.1 IP over 10 GS
with 69 H, 8 HR, and a 95-53 G-F; 5.37 ERA.

Hendrickson owns a 4433 QA log since a terrible outing in Texas at the end of April, and while his poor 4.1 strikeout rate concerns me, his 1.75 G-F and 1.8 BB/9 both indicate much less downside than suggested by his 11.2 H/9 and 1.3 HR/9. Toronto's great offense should allow Hendrickson to break double-digit wins rather easily, and while I'm concerned his WHIP won't drop too much thanks to the Blue Jays' defensive struggles, we should see his ERA drop below 5.00 in the near future. Anyone interested in rostering a decent starter should seek to acquire Hendrickson since his value should continuing heading upward.

April Underachiever: Kelvim Escobar, RH Closer
Old stats: 0-1 and 2 Saves on an 8:3 K:BB in 6 IP over 7 G
with 13 H, 1 HR, and a 10-4 G-F; 15.00 ERA.
Recommendation: wait.
Stats since recommendation: 1-0 and 2 Saves on an 18:8 K:BB in 14.1 IP over 9 G(1GS)
with 16 H, 2 HR, and a 3.77 ERA.

We'll continue tomorrow with NL underachieving pitchers.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Jerry Hairston's injury means Brian Roberts will start for the next month or two in Baltimore. Roberts owns a .315/.401/.399 on a 27:12 BB:K in 178 AB with a 19/25 SB% at AAA Ottawa(PCL), and he easily could steal a dozen bags a month for the rest of the year if the Orioles let him start at second or short. If he's available in your league, he merits a significant FAAB bid.