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May 19th 2003 |
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Your Daily Fantasy Rx |
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by Tim Polko Note: The beginning of most stat lines includes the following data: H/AB for BA/OBP/SLG.
Spiezio just won the AL Player of the Week award for hitting .476/.577/1.048 last week, and he also managed 2 HR, 7 RBI, and 4 R, so I'm about a week recommending you go acquire him. However if his owner only glances at Spiezio's batting average, maybe he'll remain amenable to dealing Sandfrog's frontman. The one huge red flag here is a career-worst 1.40 G-F, nearly double his .76 norm. This reduced power output could result in this low BA, however both his .11 walk rate and .91 contact rate indicates he still ranks as the Angels' most disciplined hitters. Spiezio's value should continue rising, making him a valuable commodity in AL-only leagues.
April Underachiever: David Eckstein, SS
While Cruz certainly fit Baltimore's budget guidelines, signing him looks like one of the worst moves of the year as Brian Roberts needs to play every day in the majors. Roberts and Jerry Hairston could combine to form a potent top of the order for the next few years, while Cruz barely belongs in the majors with a 2.93 #P/PA. His defense doesn't begin to justify the playing time suggested by his current performance, and while his .95 contact rate remains among the best in the game, his .008 walk rate may be the worst. Deal or cut Cruz since even a similarly terrible back-up wouldn't hurt your batting average to the same extent.
April Underachiever: Gary Matthews, Jr., OF
Damon's quantitative numbers all look fine as he appears on pace to reach about 20 homers, 72 RBI, 132 R, and 40 steals. Unfortunately his surprisingly weak BA is limiting his value. A career-best 4.15 #P/PA indicates he might be taking too many pitches, and I'm also concerned that a 1.60 G-F, his worst mark since 1997, is limiting his developing power. However both his plate discipline and baserunning remain excellent, so we expect his averages to increase over the rest of the season, making Damon a good target to acquire now.
April Underachiever: David Ortiz, 1B
Crede's .285 BA last season looked like a fluke in consideration of his minor league numbers, however we hoped at least to see a .250 BA here. I don't like his career-worst 3.26 #P/PA, so hopefully new Chicago hitting coach Greg Walker will teach Crede some plate disciplined. Fortunately his .90 G-F and .88 contact rate indicate we can expect his power numbers to improve noticeably, and the latter mark also suggests his average will rise. Only continued limited production along these lines would cause Crede's value to drop further, and as his skills strongly suggest improvement in the near future, you should look to acquire Crede if you need either help at third or a CR power boost.
April Underachiever: Paul Konerko, 1B
Only Bill Selby owns a worse OPS on the Indians than Garcia's .603 mark, however Garcia's current injury likely accounts for much of his poor performance. He hit the DL May 8th with a strained left wrist that had bothered him all season, but he reportedly seems recovered and should return by the weekend. A quick glance at his skills indicates his walk rate is actually significantly improved from last season while his .78 contact rate is only slightly lower. His 3.21 #P/PA also hasn't changed, but even though wrist injuries often limited power, Garcia's .97 G-F is a career-best mark. I see no reason he can't resume producing numbers similar to those he posted last season, making now a great time to acquire Garcia from an owner likely very disappointed with his stats thus far.
April Underachiever: Matt Lawton, OF
We expected terrible seasons from most of the Tiger youngsters, but Pena should not own a worse OBP than Infante, Munson, or Ramon Santiago. His .07 walk rate is a severe departure from his .11 career mark entering this season, and we can track the genesis of this slump to an organizational philosophy emphasizing contact over plate discipline; Pena, owner of a career 4.05 #P/PA before 2003, currently possesses a 3.57 #P/PA. Unsurprisingly, Pena's .73 contact rate barely has budged from previous seasons, so only his .95 G-F is allowing him to maintain any value. However his fielding will keep him in the lineup under almost any circumstances, and we still like his long-term upside a lot, making Pena a good target to acquire right now, particularly for rebuilding teams.
April Underachiever: Dmitri Young, OF
Nearly every Royal is struggling right now, and they finally fell out of first place yesterday thanks to the Twins demolishing the White Sox over the weekend. However we see room for improvement from a couple of regulars, and Randa's career-best .92 G-F and 3.92 #P/PA suggest he could approach career highs in several categories. A .88 contact rate doesn't suggest his average will break .275, however anyone seeking a respectable BA and good power numbers should seek to acquire Randa.
April Underachiever: Mike Sweeney, 1B
While he shares the team lead in both homers and RBI, Hunter possesses the worst OPS of any regular other than Luis Rivas, and only Chris Gomez and Denny Hocking also own worse marks on the Twins. Of course, although the 200-point drop in his OPS is troubling, I'm more concerned with the disappearance of his speed. Following in the ever-slowing footsteps of Corey Koskie, Hunter hasn't stolen a single base this season a year after grabbing 23 bags. I believe we're seeing the beginning of Hunter developing from a tools goof with great D into a powerhouse offensive player. A 1.62 G-F worries me due to the lack of power development, however the improvements in his walk rate(.06 '02; .10 '03) and contact rate(.79 '02; .82 '03) hint at a career path that could echo Sosa's evolution to some extent. Anyone who saw highlight shows last weekend knows Spiderman still can save homers better than anyone, and at least Hunter's power numbers look solid, so cautiously look to acquire him, particularly if you're a rebuilding team that can nab him at a discount.
April Underachiever: Mike Cuddyer, OF
I suspect we can trace Matsui's troubles to a 2.44 G-F, a poor rate for anyone but extremely speedy players and certainly not a level expected from Japan's premiere power hitter. Matsui's .07 walk rate, .86 contact rate, and 3.61 #P/A all are below what we anticipated, so while his 29 RBI are nice, he likely would lead the majors with 45+ RBI if he owned the .300 BA everyone hoped he'd post. I don't see Matsui rebounding in the near future given these skills, so while I still like his upside and believe he adds a new element to the Yankees' offense, we need to adjust his prediction downward to around $20. Feel free to explore a deal if anyone in your league believes his averages soon will improve.
April Underachiever: Jason Giambi, 1B
April Underachiever: Jermaine Dye, OF
The Mariners might be running away with the AL West if their reserves, whom we expected to rank among baseball's best, weren't performing nearly uniformly badly. While we can attribute some players' struggles to inconsistent playing time, McLemore underwent multiple surgeries last fall, turned 38 last October, and likely lost a step due to age. The confluence of these events means that we unfortunately see neither the at-bats nor foot speed necessary for McLemore to regain any significant roto value, so you likely should deal or cut him in favor of trendier, or at least younger, currently available players.
April Underachiever: Jeff Cirillo, 3B
We expected Easley to take full advantage of the shorter Comerica fences to post a solid rebound season, and instead he only starts at third for Tampa due to a lack of consistent options. He owns no plate discipline or speed, and his mediocre power doesn't compensate for a .83 contact rate, a mark even lower than Easley's recent performances. Deal or cut him even if you only can find a buried bench player who won't see enough at-bats to kill your BA.
April Underachiever: Carl Crawford, OF
We know he's a very undisciplined hitter, however we saw upside in his career-best 3.59 #P/PA last year and a .92 contact rate that would help boost Diaz's quantitative marks in the Rangers' lineup while playing home games in a great hitters' park. This year his .89 contact rate isn't bad, and his 1.20 G-F also indicates more power promise than his 1.48 mark last year. Gerald Laird may supplant Diaz as the starter as soon as next year, but if you're looking for a decent second catcher, we still see sufficient potential in these skills to recommend you acquire Diaz.
April Underachiever: Mark Teixeira, 1B/3B
The Blue Jays' insistence upon limited stolen bases largely eviscerated Stewart' value since J.P. Ricciardi began his reign as GM. While Stewart ranks among the best percentage basestealers in baseball with a 75% career SB success rate, Toronto does not give him sufficient chances to demonstrate his primary tool. Fortunately Stewart remains a solid leadoff man due to his good plate discipline, however he accrues the most value in 5x5 leagues thanks to his solid run totals. If you already own Stewart, seek steals elsewhere as you wait in the hope Ricciardi will deal Stewart to a steal-happy team around the All-Star break, and anyone looking for steals also should try to grab Stewart if he finds an environment that will allow him to maximize his skills.
April Underachiever: Orlando Hudson, 2B
As the handle merely hooked under the raised post for the cold water dispenser, we just needed to find a similarly shaped replacement that would allow us to easily raise the post, thus releasing the water. A small, 3/4" binder clip, found at any office supply store has both the shape and strength required. To install, first close the clips so that the metal rings touch. Slide the rings over the dispenser post, and then rotate the clip until the narrowest sections of the rings slide into the post opening. Lightly raise the closed portion of the clip as your lever to enable continued use of that dispenser.
Click
here to read the previous article.
Please e-mail your comments to
tim@rotohelp.com. |
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