Today's Fantasy Rx

Note: For those of you unfamiliar with FAAB, each team normally begins with $100 to spend throughout the year on all free agent pickups. Most injury replacements or speculative picks go for a buck or two, hot starters go for $5-$10, top prospects go in the $10-$30 range, and we've seen $90+ bids on top players traded into the league.

Anaheim: Greg Jones, 26, RH Reliever
0-2 on a 29:6 K:BB in 19.1 IP over 13 G
with 15 H, 1 HR, and a 5.59 ERA at AAA Salt Lake(PCL).

The returns of Sele and Appier give Anaheim their best starting depth of the year. While we expect the Angels to hold their current pitching staff for a few weeks barring injury, the presence of Shields and Callaway in the big league bullpen indicates that we won't see a starter promoted any time soon. Jones simply is toasting his opposition despite his seemingly weak ERAA, and after he posted a 55:22 K:BB in 63 IP in 2002, his 13.5 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 don't shock us. Wait until he performs decently in a couple games before rostering him, but anyone seeking solid middle relievers should FAAB Jones for a buck given he could embark on Donnelly-like dominance.

Baltimore: Hector Carrasco, 33, RH Reliever
3-0 and 2 Saves on a 26:9 K:BB in 24.1 IP over 16 G
with 13 H, 2 HR, and a 1.48 ERA at AAA Ottawa(IL).

John Stephens isn't meeting our expectations thus far, but while the Orioles already possess a pen of skilled relievers, Carrasco again appears prepared to contribute in the majors. Although he missed 2002 with a torn rotator cuff, his skill history suggests he's quite capable of contributing in middle relief. Expect him to reach the majors late in the first half, and as long as Baltimore isn't embarking on a particularly unfriendly road trip, I see no reason why you couldn't FAAB him for a buck.

Boston: Ryan Rupe, 28, RH Starter
3-1 on a 30:4 K:BB in 33 IP over 6 GS(7G)
with 26 H, 1 HR, and a 1.91 ERA at AAA Pawtucket(IL).

Pedro, Lowe, Fossum, and Wakefield comprise the only real difference between Boston's pitching staff and the Pawtucket staff as the bullpens at the top two levels of the Red Sox organization appear largely interchangeable. Pawtucket's pen includes Hector Almonte, Tom Davey, Bob Howry, Justin Kaye, Rudy Seanez, and Andy Shibilo, a group of arms that wouldn't look out of place in Boston. However the strength of this squad is a rotation of Bronson Arroyo, Dicky Gonzalez, Paul Stewart, and Rupe, any of whom could replace John Burkett with a negligible difference in effectiveness. The combination of Rupe's stunning 7.5 K:BB and his place on the 40-man roster make him the likely call-up in case of injury, and after suffering through his unlucky outings with Tampa, we're looking forward to Rupe succeeding for Boston. Look to FAAB him upon any promotion if you need a decent starter with great potential for wins.

Chicago White Sox: Matt Ginter, 25, RH Reliever
2-1 on a 21:6 K:BB in 25 IP over 14 G
with 30 H, 0 HR, and a 3.24 ERA at AAA Charlotte(IL).

Mike Porzio and Jon Rauch look ready if Chicago needs another lefty or a starter, however the Sox's pen problems make Ginter the most likely call-up in the near future, especially after he spent most of 2002 in the majors. Ginter looked completely ready for the majors a year ago, and leaving him in the minors now in favor of Rick White or Gary Glover makes little sense from any perspective. Hey may be the most likely long-term closing option in the organization, and if Chicago promotes him, smart owners will grab him for a buck of FAAB now since he at least should contribute helpful qualitative stats.

Cleveland: Jason Stanford, 26, LH Starter
5-0 on a 42:12 K:BB in 42 IP over 7 GS
with 45 H, 2 HR, and a 2.79 ERA at AAA Buffalo(IL).

Jerrod Riggan joined the Indians a couple days ago, the most recent addition to their succession of fungible AAAA right-handed bullpen fodder. As we have no idea if he'll receive more than the one week audition given to most of their other relievers this year, analyzing any AAA reliever makes little sense given the unlikely scenario Cleveland will leave any of them in the majors long enough to accrue much roto value. Although Stanford received little media attention as Cleveland hyped Ricardo Rodriguez, Jason Davis, Brian Tallet, and Billy Traber, he looks more ready to succeed than the younger guns. Staanford wasn't even drafted out of UNC-Charlotte in 1999, however he's pitched effectively at every level, and his stats thus far suggest he soon will merit another promotion. Investing in any Cleveland starter carries some risk, but I'm more comfortable bidding a couple bucks of FAAB on Stanford than on Tallet or any of the current Indian starters aside from Sabathia.

Detroit: Fernando Rodney, 26, RH Reliever
0-1 and 6 Saves on a 16:6 K:BB in 14 IP over 14 G
with 15 H, 0 HR, and a 3.86 ERA at AAA Toledo(IL).

Detroit's decision to keep three Rule 5 pitchers and the 20-year-old Jeremy Bonderman on the roster over guys like Eric Eckenstahler and Rodney confused us, however at least the Tigers added a couple solid arms to a questionable system. The upside of that move is that they own a few solid bullpen arms at Toledo ready to succeed in the majors, and Rodney leads the pack as a potentially excellent set-up man or closer. While he could contribute in many fantasy leagues, Rodney looks especially valuable to Franklyn German owner, who might want to spend a buck or two of FAAB on Rodney as German insurance.

Kansas City: Jason Gilfillan, 26, RH Reliever
3-0 and 5 Saves on a 17:4 K:BB in 24.2 IP over 15 G
with 17 H, 0 HR, and a .73 ERA at AAA Omaha(PCL).

Not only are Wes Obermueller and Shawn Sedlacek not impressing, but Kansas City even demoted Ian Ferguon after three poor starts. Fortunately most of the Royals' current major leaguers continue to pitch effectively since I don't see many logical call-up candidates here. Gilfillan's ERA and command ratio stand out from this mediocre crop, although you should ignore him even if he reaches the majors as a likely replacement for Albie Lopez. I don't expect him to post overly helpful roto numbers due to his questionable dominance.

Minnesota: Michael Nakamura, 26, RH Reliever
4-2 and 2 Saves on a 38:6 K:BB in 29 IP over 13 G
with 21 H, 0 HR, and a 1.86 ERA at AAA Rochester(IL).

The Twins' cadre of young relievers at Rochester ranks as one of the most embarrassing stash of relief riches in the game. Grant Balfour, Juan Padilla, and Jeromy Palki all look close to joining Juan Rincon in the majors, however Nakamura is on another plane. Middle relievers neither are supposed to dominant to this extent nor to rank among league leaders, and yet Nakamura's only 2 innings short of officially owning the second-best ERA in the International League. His 38 strikeouts also only leave him 3 punch-outs short of the top 5 strikeout totals in the league. Nakamura deserved a 40-man spot after posting an 80:22 K:BB in 87 IP last year, some team should have grabbed him in the Rule-5 draft, and he should have broken camp with the Twins, however nearly every team remains quite biased against 5'10" right-handers. Don't let archaic scouting prejudice keep you from rostering one of the next top relievers. Snatch Nakamura with a couple bucks of FAAB as soon as he reaches the majors with any reasonable chance of keeping a roster spot longer than a fortnight.

New York Yankees: Adrian Hernandez, 28, RH Swingman
2-2 and 1 Saves on a 32:11 K:BB in 32.1 IP over 9 G(4GS)
with 32 H, 2 HR, and a 3.62 ERA at AAA Columbus(IL).

Jose Contreras's 2-0 record on an 18:2 K:BB in 15 IP insures he'll return to the majors in the near future, however I suspect someone owns Contreras in nearly every league. Hernandez, however, likely isn't owned in almost any league, and the Yankees certainly would benefit by realizing he doesn't need to start just because he owns four good pitches. His stats this year demonstrate his value as a swingman, and I see no reason why New York shouldn't immediately promote Hernandez, moving him into Ramiro Mendoza's old long relief role. Assuming the Yankees don't just recall him for a couple days at some point, you should spend a couple bucks of FAAB on Hernandez since he both should own good qualitative marks and could vulture several wins.

Oakland: Justin Duchscherer, 25, RH Starter
3-1 on a 38:3 K:BB in 45.2 IP over 7 GS
with 36 H, 1 HR, and a 1.77 ERA at AAA Sacramento(PCL).

Rich Harden's DL stint allows us to look at the two pitchers closest to unseating John Halama in Oakland, and while Aaron Harang's 7-1 record, 2.28 ERA, and 41:11 K:BB in 47.1 IP certainly keeps him in contention to return to the majors, Duchscherer also ranks among the PCL leaders in several categories. They rank 1-2 in ERA and both pitchers are near the top of the strikeout leaderboard, however Duchscherer's incredible .6 BB/9 will catch the attention of A's management. Duchscherer's biggest problem is he lacks Harang's recent track record thanks to missing half of last year due to injury, although we also are concerned that either pitcher only would act as a placeholder until Harden debuts. Of course we've seen several reports suggesting Oakland wants to leave Harden in the minors as long as possible, so while Duchscherer may not be a great keeper, he certainly merits a significant FAAB investment if he reaches the majors any time in the near future.

Seattle: Rafael Soriano, 23, RH Swingman
0-0 on a 4:2 K:BB in 4 IP over 3 G
with 2 H, 0 HR, and a 2.25 ERA in Seattle.
2-1 on a 30:7 K:BB in 30 IP over 5 GS(6G)
with 19 H, 1 HR, and a 2.70 ERA at AAA Tacoma(PCL).

Tacoma remains loaded with a half-dozen solid pitchers that deserved to break camp with Seattle more than Giovanni Carrara, however only another injury will open up any noteworthy opportunity on the Mariners' pitching staff. Soriano spent two weeks in the majors during Sasaki's DL trip, and he should be Seattle's first promotion no matter if they need a starter or a reliever. His 5.7 H/9 stands out as the most impressive aspect of his dominant AAA performance this year, so I also believe Soriano will succeed in any role in the majors. Owners in any AL-only league should attempt to FAAB him after his next recall.

Tampa Bay: Jeremi Gonzalez, 28, RH Starter
1-0 on a 33:6 K:BB in 32 IP over 6 GS(7G)
with 24 H, 2 HR, and a 2.53 ERA at AAA Durham(IL).

The frequency of optioned pitchers traveling the Durham-Tampa shuttle should embarrass Rays' management into selecting a half dozen relievers and simply trusting them to perform for a month. Unfortunately I wouldn't be surprised if every Bull pitcher appears in the majors by the end of the season. Tampa will promote Gonzalez to start Saturday against Baltimore, and while I'd happily grab him for that outing, he won't have great success against the rest of the league. Yet even though Gonzalez hasn't pitched in the majors since 1998 with the Cubs, he pitched solidly at AAA Oklahoma last year and obviously is starting effectively this year. Most owners should ignore this call-up, however Gonzalez offers just enough upside to merit some attention from anyone just looking to add a starting pitcher without worrying about wins.

Texas: Victor Santos, 26, RH Starter
2-3 on a 33:13 K:BB in 49.1 IP over 8 GS
with 47 H, 2 HR, and a 3.47 ERA at AAA Oklahoma(PCL).

The Rangers continue to cycle pitchers faster than almost anyone in baseball, and nearly anyone pitching decently already has passed through Arlington this year. Unfortunately the loss of Doug Davis on waivers means that Texas will need a AAA starter when they decided Todd Van Poppel belongs in the bullpen, and Santos probably merits the first look. I haven't advised rostering him in the past due to his weak skills, however he finally saw his first extended AAA time last year and his current performance suggests he could develop into a decent starter. Of course you don't want to risk the qualitative damage of a soft-tosser pitching for the Rangers, so you should ignore Santos' pending promotion unless your league doesn't account for earned runs or baserunners.

Toronto: Josh Towers, 26, RH Starter
1-4 on a 30:8 K:BB in 48.2 IP over 8 GS
with 53 H, 4 HR, and a 3.70 ERA at AAA Syracuse(IL).

Toronto shouldn't need more starting pitching in the near future after claiming Doug Davis off waivers and moving Kelvim Escobar towards the rotation, however Towers is the only AAA starter pitching effectively while demonstrating good control. The key to Towers continuing this success above AAA is a low homer rate since his weak dominance indicates he'll struggle to hold a hit rate near 9.0 H/9. However, given the Blue Jays' defensive difficulties, Towers just seems like one of the worst possible pitchers for this team. You likely should ignore Towers as long as he remains starting in the Toronto system.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Don't immediately rush to acquire recently impressive middle relievers. One bad outing could send even top prospects packing for the minors. Wait at least one or two weeks before adding any newly promoted talent. We waited nearly a month in our main AL-only leagues to add B.J. Ryan, and he displayed more consistent skills this April than any other reliever in baseball. Exercise similar patience when looking for middle relievers, especially since skilled veteran help carries significantly reduced risk of unfairly punitive demotions.