Today's Fantasy Rx

I'm going to spend a few days looking at potential fantasy help currently residing in the upper levels of the minors, one hitter and one pitcher, so you can know who to monitor for potential FAABing. Since most teams will still promote talent from AAA if given the chance, I'll only select a AA prospect if a AAA club lacks any promotion-worthy candidates.

We begin today with American League batting prospects.

Note: For those of you unfamiliar with FAAB, each team normally begins with $100 to spend throughout the year on all free agent pickups. Most injury replacements or speculative picks go for a buck or two, hot starters go for $5-$10, top prospects go in the $10-$30 range, and we've seen $90+ bids on top players traded into the league.

Anaheim: Alfredo Amezaga, 25, SS-S
48/140 for .343/.406/.443 with 2 HR, 18 RBI, 28 R, 8/13 SB%,
and a 12:19 BB:K at AAA Salt Lake(PCL).

We don't envision Amezaga as a long-term solution for the Angels at any position, however he currently looks like a better platoon partner for Adam Kennedy than Benji Gil. He's only committed 3 errors in 28 games at shortstop, so Anaheim also could improve their infield defense by dealing Kennedy, shifting Eckstein to second, and starting Amezaga. Now Chone Figgins and Trent Durrington both merit looks this year before Amezaga based strictly on offense, but since a .86 contact rate is easily Amezaga's best mark in three years of AAA, I see some upside in these skills. If you need a middle infielder with both power and speed upside, and you don't mind someone with a relatively low ceiling, feel free to spend a couple bucks of FAAB on Amezaga after his promotion.

Baltimore: Brian Roberts, 25, SS-S
39/134 for .291/.389/.358 with 0 HR, 6 RBI, 25 R, 15/20 SB%,
and a 22:8 BB:K at AAA Ottawa(IL).

With 2 errors in 34 games at second base thanks to a ridiculous decision to play Eddy Garabito at shortstop, Roberts is showing that he merits serious consideration for a starting job on any team with a weakness at either middle infield position. More importantly, his fantastic 2.8 BB:K, 75% SB success rate, and solid .389 OBP will increase his attractiveness to both sabermetrically-inclined GMs and traditional talent evaluators. Roberts is a potentially dynamic leadoff man capable of playing either second or short, and the Orioles' decision to let him rot at Ottawa while playing Deivi Cruz demonstrates the incompetence of the new Baltimore management team. His speed makes him worth fantasy consideration under any circumstances, however since he's quite capable of maintaining a .350+ OBP, you should spend a significant portion of FAAB to grab Roberts as soon as Baltimore either promotes or trades him to a team like the Mets that could start him immediately.

Boston: Freddy Sanchez, 24, 2B/SS-R
47/121 for .388/.468/.603 with 5 HR, 21 RBI, 30 R, 4/4 SB%,
and a 17:18 BB:K at AAA Pawtucket(IL).

I see essentially nothing wrong with his skills since Garcia's even only committed two errors while playing 10 games at second and 21 contests at shortstop. He's among the top 5 International League hitters in BA, OBP, SLG, and hits while leading the league in runs scored and doubles. Given Sanchez's background and steady skill development, he may be the most prepared batting prospect for the majors in all of baseball. A .14 walk rate and .85 contact rate aren't great marks, however when accompanied by solid power, consistent defense, and a perfect 4/4 in steal attempts, he owns the exact combination of skills the Red Sox prize in a hitter. Expect a promotion for Sanchez if Boston deals any of their offensive players, and since he appears capable of securing either Red Sox middle infield job for the rest of the decade, Sanchez merits a significant investment of FAAB in most leagues.

Chicago White Sox: Cliff Brumbaugh, 28, OF-R
37/105 for .352/.410/.610 with 5 HR, 17 RBI, 17 R, 1/3 SB%,
and an 11:26 BB:K at AAA Charlotte(IL).

The only prospect here truly ready for the majors was Willie Harris, but Chicago promoted him at the beginning of the month. Brumbaugh owns the highest OPS at Charlotte, and while Aaron Miles is hitting nearly as well, Miles' skills are weaker and the White Sox don't need another second baseman. Of Chicago's four bench players, both Armando Rios and Brian Daubach bat left-handed, and although Graffanino and Sandy Alomar are right-handers, the Sox lack any right-handed power off the bench. Interleague play starts the first week of June with Chicago visiting Arizona and Los Angeles, and I suspect they'll want a solid righty pinch-hitter for two weeks. The only AAA options are Brumbaugh and Aaron Rowand, and while Rowand's the logical pick, Brumbaugh offers more upside for both Chicago and fantasy teams. His .610 SLG is second in the league to Willie Harris, and Brumbaugh also ranks 7th in BA. If Chicago gives him a chance, a buck or two of FAAB spent on Brumbaugh could give you a welcome power boost as a fifth outfielder.

Cleveland: Coco Crisp, 24, OF-S
44/124 for .355/.456/.500 with 0 HR, 14 RBI, 27 R, 12/16 SB%,
and a 20:14 BB:K at AAA Buffalo(IL).

Greg LaRocca merits a long look in the majors thanks to his .331/.374/.421 thus far, however Crisp is demolishing International League pitching. While Milton Bradley's establishing himself in Cleveland's starting lineup, the Indians lack another outfielder with an OPS over .700. Cleveland should pursue a Lawton-for-Jeromy Burnitz deal later this summer, adding short-term power upside in exchange for moving their most cumbersome contract, thereby opening an outfield slot for Crisp. Crisp only ranks behind Willie Harris and Freddy Sanchez in IL OBP, and he's also among the league leaders in BA, steals, triples, and runs. A lineup of Crisp, Omar Vizquel, Bradley, and Ellis Burks offers intriguing offensive upside, and since Crisp proved last summer he can hit decently in the majors, his AAA performance suggests he's nearly ready for a full-time job in the majors. In consideration of his potential BA and SB dominance, you should plan on a significant FAAB expenditure once Crisp reaches Cleveland to stay.

Detroit: Kevin Witt, 27, 1B/3B-L
37/116 for .319/.406/.603 with 8 HR, 22 RBI, 21 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 16:31 BB:K at AAA Toledo(IL).

The recent promotion of Andres Torres leaves Witt as Toledo's best player, however Witt's combination of power and on-base percentage would make him a logical candidate for promotion if Detroit decides to essentially finish housecleaning by cutting Dean Palmer. While striking out more than once every four at-bats while making two errors a week won't endear Witt to Alan Trammell, the Tigers desperately needs a solid DH, and a lineup of Torres, Higginson, Young, Pena, Munson, and Witt might score enough runs to push Detroit ahead of Cleveland. Witt's in his production prime, and if he's kept off the field, the IL home run co-leader will give the Tigers' offense a nice boost. He might hurt your BA, but if you need power from your cornerman or DH, try to FAAB Witt for a couple bucks if Detroit realizes they need his bat in the majors.

Kansas City: Brent Abernathy, 25, 2B-R
39/135 for .289/.355/.430 with 3 HR, 13 RBI, 24 R, 6/11 SB%,
and a 13:17 BB:K at AAA Omaha(PCL).

Although I don't envision Kansas City making many moves in the near future since general managers generally don't want to shake up division leaders, a few players like Carlos Febles, Mike DeFelice, and Mendy have not helped the Royals' great start. Kansas City acquired a rather eclectic group of AAAA fodder to man Omaha, and we're seeing reasonable production from Benny Agbayani, Morgan Burkhart, and Mike Kelly. However the Royals don't need another OF/1B/DH-type, and neither Fernando Lunar nor Sandy Martinez deserve to replace DiFelice. A call-up of Abernathy, claimed on waivers in early April, is the one change that might keep the club moving forward. Unfortunately his performance doesn't suggest he'd improve on Febles' numbers in any area, so the Royals likely are better starting Febles and Angel Berroa for defensive purposes while employing Desi Relaford in a supersub role to boost the offense. Ignore a promotion of Abernathy unless you're desperate for any starting middle infielder.

Minnesota: Luis Rodriguez, 22, 2B-S
34/124 for .274/.331/.363 with 1 HR, 14 RBI, 19 R, 1/2 SB%,
and an 11:12 BB:K at AAA Rochester(IL).

Only Justin Morneau looks overly impressive right now, and he only moved to AAA a week or two ago. Of course the Twins' primary weaknesses are their middle infield and right-handed power, but since Ron Gardenhire didn't even find sufficient playing time for Mike Cuddyer, I doubt they'll promote Mike Restovich even if he's leading the International League in extra-base hits. Ignoring players on the weak end of the defensive spectrum, Rodriguez is the lone Red Wing that likely merits a call-up. Unfortunately his main attributes are plate discipline and good defense, and Gardenhire keeps writing lineups filled with tools goofs with few secondary skills. However Rodriguez' translated .221 EQA easily exceeds Luis Rivas' current .206, and while Rodriguez isn't far back of Guzman's .236, I doubt Minnesota will even consider benching their shortstop given his occasional gamebreaking speed. Rodriguez merits a buck or two of FAAB if the Twins let him play second base for a while, but I don't see him as a long-term solution for Minnesota, nor do I put much stock in weekend reports that suggest Mike Cuddyer might see extended time at second for Rochester.

New York Yankees: Michel Hernandez, 24, C-R
21/77 for .273/.364/.390 with 1 HR, 4 RBI, 9 R, 0/1 SB%,
and a 9:11 BB:K at AAA Columbus(IL).

The pending return of Derek Jeter should push Erick Almonte back to Columbus, and the dynamic production from the rest of the starting lineup leaves little room for a Juan Rivera or Marcus Thames even given the lack of bench depth after Zeile and Bubba Trammell. Perhaps only another injury will open up significant playing time, and Posada's suffered from a couple of minor ailments. I don't see Hernandez as an obvious upgrade on Flaherty, but at least he's a solid homegrown backstop with good plate discipline, so we wouldn't be surprised to see Hernandez in the majors before summer. If New York gives him a shot this year, try to FAAB Hernandez for a buck if you need to replace a weak-hitting catcher.

Oakland: Jose Flores, 29, 2B/UT-R
28/106 for .264/.363/.321 with 1 HR, 7 RBI, 27 R, 2/2 SB%,
and a 16:15 BB:K at AAA Sacramento(PCL).

Sacramento owns the third best record in the PCL thanks to an intriguing combination of minor league veterans, youngsters like Bobby Crosby and Esteban German, and older prospects like Graham Koonce. Dave McCarty and Billy McMillon in particularly have produced impressive numbers, but I doubt Oakland will give either player a long look. Flores stands out from his teammates due to both his versatility and the Athletics' need to replace Frank Menchino's .067/.176/.067 performance thus far as their reserve middle infielder. Of course he won't see much playing time without an injury to Mark Ellis or Miguel Tejada, so you likely should ignore Flores when the A's recall him.

Seattle: Chad Meyers, 27, 2B/OF-R
29/92 for .315/.388/.402 with 0 HR, 9 RBI, 13 R, 8/10 SB%,
and a 7:8 BB:K at AAA Tacoma(PCL).

Bob Melvin's employed very similar lineups for most of the season, and since he possesses a deep bench of utility players, any injury would allow him to start one of his underutilized reserves, and the flexible Meyers likely would join the Mariners. We've liked Meyers for years and still believe the Cubs should have let him start at second base for all of 2000, rather than just giving him 52 at-bats over 36 games. Last year he posted a .260/.383/.376 with a 43/52 SB% and 63:64 BB:K in 412 AAA at-bats, so only a lack of playing time stands between Meyers and considerable roto value. Unfortunately no organization seems to appreciate his on-base ability and speed to the extent they ignore his nearly complete lack of power, so you should ignore Meyers given the likelihood he'll fail to reach 25 major league at-bats in 2003.

Tampa Bay: Antonio Perez, 23, 2B-R
21/83 for .253/.388/.398 with 2 HR, 11 RBI, 15 R, 3/4 SB%,
and a 14:22 BB:K between AA Orlando(SL) and AAA Durham(IL).

The Rays promoted Perez on Saturday when Rey Ordonez hit the DL, but as Perez's only 16 at-bats above AA occurred this season, he's not prepared to produce in the majors in any capacity. If he hadn't posted a .412 OBP in 67 AA at-bats I'd suggest he belongs back at Orlando, however he certainly doesn't deserve a shot in the majors right now over someone like Jason Smith, who at least owns good power to compensate for his weak plate discipline. Unless you're already actively rebuilding, ignore Perez due to his minute chance of making any fantasy contribution.

Texas: Jeff Pickler, 27, 2B-L
32/133 for .241/.374/.286 with 0 HR, 10 RBI, 22 R, 15/16 SB%,
and a 28:20 BB:K at AAA Oklahoma(PCL).

Any team without John Hart as their general manager likely would have given Pickler a chance to unseat Mike Young during Spring Training after Pickler posted a .384 OBP at Oklahoma last year. While Pickler's non-existent power and questionable BA won't endear him to most managers, smart talent evaluators would realize that his OBP, speed, and the solid defense suggested by only committing 2 errors in 30 games are exactly what the Rangers need in a leadoff man. Of course Young's surprising .363 OBP this season prevents Pickler's potential promotion, however Young will not maintain the .300+ BA necessary for him to hold an OBP above .350. Texas would be pleasantly surprised if they gave Pickler a shot later this summer, and given the possibility he could win extended playing time, look to FAAB Pickler for a couple bucks when he finally reaches the majors.

Toronto: Reed Johnson, 26, OF-R
29/92 for .315/.363/.446 with 2 HR, 15 RBI, 13 R, 3/3 SB%,
and a 3:12 BB:K at AAA Syracuse(IL).

Eric Hinske owns the worst OPS on the Blue Jays at .691, so I don't expect them to make any moves involving non-injured position players any time soon. Syracuse also doesn't possess much talent to offer the big league club. Johnson looked like Shannon Stewart's likely replacement after he posted a .314/.383/.451 with 42 steals at AA Tennessee(SL) in 2001, but he suffered through an injury-plagued 2002, posting a .233/.317/.358 in 159 AAA at-bats. Toronto gave him two at-bats in three games earlier this year when they needed a reserve outfielder for a few days before Jayson Werth's return, however Johnson's not likely to see much playing time even if the Jays again need him as an injury replacement. Werth will receive the first shot at any outfield opening, so while I see some long-term upside here, ignore Johnson for now unless you see a marked uptick in his Syracuse stats before any promotion.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Offensive prospects that immediately dominate their new leagues while displaying good plate discipline after a promotion are excellent FAAB targets since they've displayed an ability to immediately adjust to their new level. You shouldn't worry about suffering through weeks of poor production from a Freddy Sanchez or Coco Crisp when they reach the majors.