Today's Fantasy Rx

Continuing with our second day of examination of May trends, I'll review hitters who, over the past three years, lose at least .050 BA and .100 OPS from April to May. I focused on players who compiled 100 AB in both April and May over the past three years.

Paul Konerko, 1B, CHW: -.130 BA; -.325 OPS
00-02	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
April	291	17:43	.347/.387/.591
May	277	21:49	.217/.281/.372

03Apr	84	8:9	.238/.309/.381

While Brian Daubach's struggles have left Konerko in the lineup, his already-dreadful OPS has fallen to .665 in May. Yet with a .89 contact rate that's even more impressive than his normal .85 mark, I see no reason not to expect a strong rebound sometime in the near future. Konerko's historical performance suggests we won't see much improvement for another couple weeks, however I recommend you take advantage of his depressed numbers and begin trade talks soon to acquire Konerko sometime before the start of June.

Mike Lowell, 3B, FLO: -.112 BA; -.321 OPS
00-02	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
April	288	23:42	.337/.384/.597
May	222	21:41	.225/.291/.369

03Apr	113	11:14	.283/.347/.584

Lowell maintained his normal power production this April, however he failed to post his historically excellent batting average. The best news here is that he demonstrated far more plate discipline than in previous Aprils, so hopefully his production won't slip quite so drastically in 2003. Of course he's off to a dreadful start over the last week, compiling a .176/.250/.176 in 17 at-bats, yet a 2:1 BB:K at least demonstrates he continues to make solid contact. Lowell likely will head to a contender as the trade deadline approaches, and since we can expect him to remain moderately productive even without a great BA, I see no reason to take any action at this time other than to wait in the hope he'll land somewhere with even more RBI opportunities.

Moises Alou, OF, CHC: -.094. BA; -.304 OPS
00-02	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
April	111	10:11	.360/.408/.631
May	252	25:30	.266/.330/.405

03Apr	87	9:10	.253/.340/.402

While we have a lot of faith in Alou rebounding this season even though he turns 37 in July, we expect to see a short-term decrease in his production before he spends most of the summer padding his power numbers. Unfortunately his batting average thus far accounts for his overall struggles, and while his 18 RBI are nice, they barely compensate for a .243 BA and only 2 homers. We recognize that Alou hasn't pleased his owners this year, however the likelihood of him posting solid numbers this summer strongly suggests you should wait a couple month before taking any action here.

Jim Edmonds, OF, STL: -.073 BA; -.262 OPS
00-02	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
April	222	51:63	.378/.489/.743
May	275	53:90	.305/.421/.549

03Apr	69	14:19	.391/.500/.768

We generally avoid Edmonds due to the injury risk, however assuming he looks healthy next Spring Training, we simply must roster him in some league with the intention of dealing him within a fortnight of National Tax Day. I'm sick of seeing him obliterate NL pitching for a month without receiving any benefit to our teams, especially since he neither cracks an average BA of .305 or OPS of .970 in any other month. Holding onto Edmonds for a couple more weeks certainly won't hurt your team, but a deal now could net you a significantly more impressive package of talent from anyone who doesn't realize Edmonds' stats always fall as spring ends.

Pokey Reese, 2B, PIT: -.126 BA; -.251 OPS
00-02	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
April	211	17:40	.327/.386/.431
May	234	23:50	.201/.271/.295

03Apr	78	3:22	.231/.256/.295

While the Pirates' Giles-less offense certainly didn't help Reese, he even only attempted two steals. We expect him to run the bases more aggressively this month, however he likely will finish May having only reached base in a quarter of his plate appearances. He doesn't normally far exceed a .700 OPS in any other month, so this looks like a lost season for Reese. Look to deal him now to anyone desperate for steals.

Jay Gibbons, OF, BAL: -.103 BA; -.244 OPS
00-02	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
April	147	17:21	.286/.364/.490
May	115	12:20	.183/.262/.348

03Apr	90	9:11	.244/.320/.411

Aside from a lower batting average, Gibbons' stats look remarkably similar to his numbers in previous seasons. He isn't displaying any significant skill increase, and with the Orioles largely floundering, we can't expect great quantitative marks from him. Fortunately an early May surge has artificially-inflated his value, so look to deal him now for one of the half-dozen or more slumping outfielders available in most leagues.

Eli Marrero, C/OF, STL: -.112 BA; -.230 OPS
00-02	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
April	121	8:25	.314/.363/.504
May	119	13:20	.202/.276/.361

03Apr	55	4:6	.255/.300/.455

Eli's struggled this year due to minor injuries such as a thigh bruise, which at least his explains his single attempted steal. However he owns a career-best G-F that indicates solid power upside, and his very respectable walk and contact rates suggest we won't see a significant slump this year. The Cardinals seem as prepared as ever to employ Marrero in a superutility role, and he should retain his value to fantasy teams throughout May, suggesting you should wait for a likely summer improvement in his performance.

Mike Matheny, C, STL: -.077 BA; -.227 OPS
00-02	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
April	189	19:43	.275/.338/.434
May	167	19:36	.198/.288/.257

03Apr	92	5:16	.315/.347/.413

Matheny normally posts nice numbers in April before slumping all summer until a mild September rebound. While his overly impressive April suggests he might maintain an improved level of performance, Matheny's OBP remains at a similar level to previous seasons and he displayed less power, so I think his BA might fall even faster than normal. Deal him now if you can find anyone eager to trade for a catcher with such weak hitting skills.

Shea Hillenbrand, 3B, BOS: -.075 BA; -.202 OPS
00-02	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
April	190	8:22	.342/.373/.547
May	210	5:36	.267/.294/.424

03Apr	95	5:16	.337/.387/.495

Everything in Hillenbrand's major league history suggests a forthcoming slump, and his BA already has dropped 26 points since the beginning of May. He simply is not a disciplined hitter, and anyone begging for a team like the Cubs to add him for someone like Juan Cruz fails to understand that his skills are far from unique. Hillenbrand's major asset for Boston may be his defense, and if his averages continue falling as Boston begins facing tougher competition, expect his playing time to decrease. Now is a great time to deal Hillenbrand, particularly if you play in an AL-only league that won't let you keep the stats of players traded to the other league.

Shannon Stewart, OF, TOR: -.055 BA; -.200 OPS
00-02	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
April	248	20:23	.351/.412/.548
May	250	13:29	.296/.332/.428

03Apr	120	11:10	.300/.358/.408

We won't see an obvious drop in Stewart's performance since his base batting skills remain solid even though he began the year in an obvious slump. Unfortunately Toronto's organizational precepts leave Stewart as rather useless in many fantasy leagues, and I even don't see much value here in 5x5 leagues since he only posts greatly helpful marks in BA and RBI. Wait to see where the Jays will deal him if you don't mind those limited contributions, however you also should see if you can trade him to anyone who will pay for an expectation of two-dozen or more stolen bases.

Players who qualified with an OPS decrease below .200 include John Olerud(-.071 BA/-.197 OPS), Cesar Izturis(-.061/-.194), Rob Fick(-.069/-.186), Adrian Beltre(-.067/-.183), Alex Gonzalez(-.050/-.167), Rey Ordonez(-.064/-.160), Jason LaRue(-.068/-.157), Vlad Guerrero(-.050/-.130), Barry Larkin(-.055/-.119), Randy Winn(-.057/-.105), and Torii Hunter(-.051/-.101).

Other players who qualified but don't start every day include Sandy Alomar, Jr.(-.092/-.188), John Vander Wal(-.073/-.182), Damian Jackson(-.079/-.157), and Daryle Ward(-.070/-.152). These are not players you should target in the near future.

Today's Fantasy Rx: The early-season performances of position players on warm weather teams, particularly those on the Rangers and Astros, will grow less pronounced as all teams get a chance to avoid rainouts, delays, and weather-suppressed hitting in the coming weeks.